The NBA 2019-20 season is almost here and it’s time to get your wagers in. I’m pretty sure that by now, you have already made your bets for the next NBA champions, MVP, Rookie of the Year and even the Conference and Division winners. But NBA betting doesn’t end there.
The bookmakers also have odds for every team’s win totals for the 2019-20 season with the bets coming in the form of over/under wins. Every team has over/under win total odds, but they are too many to mention. However, there is a handful that stands out.
Here are my best value picks for the team over/under win total betting. These odds were taken from BetOnline as of 10/10/19:
The Los Angeles Lakers are among the early NBA betting favorites to win the 2019-20 NBA title and I honestly believe that had LeBron James not been injured on Christmas Day last season, the Lakers would have won 50 games last season and made the playoffs. This year is an upgrade. Los Angeles added Anthony Davis but lost Brandon Ingram, Lonzo Ball, and Josh Hart. But weren’t those three limping to end last season? Davis looks healthy and has been dominant in preseason play. Then add the likes of Avery Bradley, Dwight Howard, Danny Green, Quinn Cook and Jared Dudley who are going to give LeBron one of his best supporting cast in years. 50.5 wins? I think they top that easily unless of course either LeBron or AD gets hurt. That would be another story. Prediction: Over 50.5
Many people are saying that the Spurs are due for regression because they didn’t land somebody significant during the offseason. I don’t buy that talk. If I’m wrong though, then it will be very close. Look, the Spurs won 48 games last season and they are returning their core. LaMarcus Aldridge isn’t going to be MVP but he is still a stud. This is DeMar DeRozan’s second season in San Antonio and we know how he improved last year playing for Gregg Popovich. The Spurs are also getting their starting point guard back in Dejounte Murray after he missed last season with a knee injury. And yes, don’t forget that they added DeMarre Carroll in the offseason. He may not be Kawhi Leonard, Anthony Davis or Russell Westbrook, but he is a solid player who can fit well int Popovich’s system which doesn’t need too many stars to win games. San Antonio had the second-best home record in the West last season and they led the league in three-point shooting percentage. I think they are a bargain at -105. Prediction: Over 45.5
If you’re looking for the best value bet here, this could be it. Gone are Glory Years when the Bulls won six NBA titles with Michael Jordan and Scottie Pippen. The Derrick Rose era looked ready to happen but Rose’s knees didn’t permit it. Now the Bulls are one of the lottery teams in the league. Chicago won only 22 games last season and this is a team that didn’t add any superstar during the summer. The Bulls drafted Coby White and signed Otto Porter Jr. and Thaddeus Young. They will also be returning Zach LaVine, Kris Dunn, Wendell Carter Jr., and Lauri Markkanen. Markkanen and Carter should improve but LaVine should continue his rise as one of the league’s young stars but given Chicago’s problems on the defensive end last season, they didn’t address that need during the summer. The Bulls ranked in the bottom five in Opponent field goal percentage and Opponent three-point percentage. They were also tied for the worst home record in the league at 9-32 SU in 41 home games. I think this team is headed to the lottery again. I don’t think they will be in “tanking” mode but I don’t think they have a player that moves the needle. Prediction: Under 33.5
The Atlanta Hawks won 29 games last season and they drafted Cam Reddish and De’Andre Hunter plus added Jabari Parker and Evan Turner. And oh yes, they also added Chandler Parsons who can contribute when he is in his element. Atlanta plays in a weaker conference and I think the additions they made plus the fact that I think Trae Young will even be better this year are worth six wins. Prediction: Over 34.5
The Boston Celtics won 49 games last season. They lost Kyrie Irving to the Brooklyn Nets but they added Kemba Walker from the Charlotte Hornets. When it comes to numbers, I think the two offset each other but I think the Celtics will suffer from the departure of Al Horford who wasn’t just a producer inside the pain but a leader to the team. Boston has a new big man in Enes Kanter. They also have the enigmatic Taco Fall. My question is how good (or not) Gordon Hayward will be. Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum are ultra-talented and I love Brad Stevens to death. However, I’m not convinced that Walker makes them better than they were with Irving, especially with Horford gone. Prediction: Under 48.5
The Brooklyn Nets added Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant but KD won’t be playing this season. Irving is an upgrade from D’Angelo Russell but remembers that Irving led the Boston Celtics to only 49 wins last season. That Boston team had Gordon Hayward, Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and Al Horford. This Brooklyn team doesn’t have as much talent but we saw them play hard last season. I don’t think Irving will have much trouble playing alongside his new teammates. However, I don’t think this team has enough talent to win until KD comes back. Irving is ultra-talented but he is more effective playing alongside a bigger star. Prediction: Under 43.5
The Denver Nuggets were a surprise last season. Nikola Jokic was impressive and he will be an MVP candidate this season if he continues to improve. Jamal Murray will also be expected to be better and he is going to be a handful to defend. Their supporting cast of Torrey Craig, Malik Beasley, Monte Morris, and Garry Harris are good and Paul Millsap will still be there to provide leadership. But while the Nuggets didn’t fix anything because nothing was broke, the other teams in the West got better. I’m not convinced they can win against the improved Western Conference. For example, they were 5-2 against the Los Angeles teams last season. That number could easily turn to 2-5 this year. Denver won 54 games last season. I don’t think they can match that this year. Prediction: Under 52.5
Are the Warriors going to be bad that they won’t win 50 games next season? I don’t think they’re that bad but the rest have gotten better. Golden State will be without leading scorer Kevin Durant and Splash Brother Klay Thompson. They have also lost Andre Iguodala among others. But remember that Steph Curry and Draymond Green will be joined by All-Star guard D’Angelo Russell and that’s still a pretty good trio right there. The Warriors won 57 games last season but remember that KD was worth 11.5 win shares last season and Klay was at 5.3 win shares himself. D’Lo was just 5.0 win shares for the Nets. It’s not about win shares but that’s a good indicator. Prediction: Under 48.5
There is a lot of buzz around the Pelicans this season. The team landed Zion Williamson, one of the most hyped players coming from the NBA draft. Then the team also added Brandon Ingram, Lonzo Ball and Josh Hart from the Lakers plus they signed J.J. Redick. On paper, this is a team that looks primed to win 40 games this year. Jrue Holiday is going to provide the experience but I don’t think that they can live up to the hype, at least this year. Look, LeBron could only lead the Lakers to 37 wins with Ingram, Ball, and Hart. Williamson is no LeBron even with Holiday and Redick helping him with the load. Prediction: Under 39.5
The New York Knicks are favored to win over 26.5 games this season. Seriously? I mean the Knicks won 17 games last season and had the worst record in the league. They traded Kristaps Porzingis for Dennis Smith Jr. but the latter doesn’t look like he’s going to be a star. They added Julius Randle and he could be a star. New York also has the likes of Taj Gibson, Bobby Portis, Elfrid Payton, and Marcus Morris. They have a decent line-up but I don’t see them playing together as a team. Prediction: Under 26.5
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