2019 Azerbaijan Grand Prix Prop Bets and Prediction 4/28/19

The 4th race of the 2019 Formula One season is happening this week in Azerbaijan. And the closer it gets, the more bet markets are emerging for punters. Let’s take a look at the more interesting proposition bets for this weekend’s race. Before that though, let’s take another look at who the oddsmakers think will win the race and if you are a new bettor then read our beginner’s guide to F1 betting.

Here are the updated odds from Bovada on the outright winner of the race:

During our preview of the 2019 Azerbaijan Grand Prix, we already discussed why we are picking Lewis Hamilton to win this race. The reigning Drivers Champion is the most dominant force in racing right now and he is showing no signs of slowing down yet. So yeah, we’re sticking with Lewis Hamilton for our pick as outright winner.

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Now on to the prop bets, as promised. Here the best prop bets we found at Bovada as of 4/23/19:

Winning Car

Three races are in for the 2019 Formula One season and in all three races, the winning car was a Mercedes. In fact, the Top 2 cars in every race so far this year has been a Mercedes. Ferrari has been third twice and Red Bull owns the last of nine podium spots so far this season.

Much was said about Ferrari’s SF90 engine heading into the season but apart from Charles LeClerc finishing third in the Bahrain GP while claiming Pole and fastest lap, the much hyped Ferrari engine has been just that, hype. On the other hand, Hamilton has used his slick driving skills and a little luck to get Mercedes where they are.

Now to our bet. I think it’s more of the driver than the car, even if this bet is about the car. You cannot question how dominant Mercedes has been to start the season. Unless they prove me wrong, I’m going with the Silver Arrows here. Prediction: Mercedes

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Top 6 Finish

Pierre Gasly has finished 11, 8 and 6 in the first three races of the season. Daniel Ricciardo and Nico Hulkenberg haven’t finished higher than 7th this year while Kimi Raikkonen has averaged an 8th place finish in three races. When you take a look at their resumes in Azerbaijan, Ricciardo won there in 2017 while Raikkonen was 2nd in this race last year.

My best bets here are Daniel Ricciardo and Kimi Raikkonen. Between the two, the Iceman has been more consistent this year with no finish below 9th and an average finish of 8th. I know we’re talking about Top 6 finish but I like Raikkonen’s consistency at where he is. So if there’s possibly one bet with plus money that’s going to be a winner, I like Kimi Raikkonen here. Prediction: Kimi Raikkonen

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Fastest Lap

Bottas had the fastest lap in the Australian GP, Leclerc had that distinction in Bahrain while Gasly claimed that feat in Shanghai. When you talk about Azerbaijan, Vettel has the fastest lap during the inaugural race in 2017 while Bottas has the fastest lap here last year. Looking at the odds, I’m going with Lewis Hamilton.

Look, there have been 132 drivers to record the fastest lap in a Grand Prix Race including 71 to do it more than once. Among the current drivers, Kimi Raikkonen has the most with 46, the most recent of which was in the 2018 Austrian Grand Prix. Lewis Hamilton is next with 41, with his last being the 2018 United States Grand Prix. while Vettel has 36 including the 2018 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix.

I’m tempted by Kimi Raikkonen here and even seriously gave it a thought. But I’m going to say it’s gonna be either Mercedes cars. If forced to pick one, I’ll go with Lewis Hamilton. He’s one of the all-time leaders in fastest laps, is the leader in the current standings, has won two of the three races and is arguably the best driver today. Prediction: Lewis Hamilton

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Nationality of Winner

This bet is intriguing because when you look at it, it’s just the same as betting on the winner. Why do I say so? Among the 20 drivers in the current Formula One season, there are only two British drivers in Lewis Hamilton, Lando Norris and George Russell. There are also two Germans in Sebastian Vettel and Nico Hulkenberg. There are two Finnish drivers in Valtteri Bottas and Kimi Raikkonen. There is only one Monegasque ( Charles Leclerc), Dutch (Verstappen) and two Frenchmen in Pierre Gasly and Romain Grosjean. The rest of course are classified under others.

But while you may be tempted to pick any nationality because almost half of the drivers belong to the group, none of the Top 8 in the current Drivers standings are among the “any nationality” group so that’s basically a no-no despite the huge +25000 which is obviously just a decoration to make it look good.

Picking British, German or Finnish here will give you at least two drivers each. The better bet among these two are British and Finnish because there are three British drivers in the cast, including two in the Top 8 and the two Finnish drivers in the group belong to the Top 7. If you ask me though, if I’m betting by nationality without even knowing who the driver’s names are, I’ll go for British because the British drivers are ranked #1,#8 and a wildcard at #19. Putting names to numbers, #1 is Lewis Hamilton so yeah, go with British here. Prediction: British

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Best Prop Bet

Study closely the odds on the prop bet on “winning nationality”. British is currently at +175 while betting for Lewis Hamilton as outright winner is at +150. Now there’s a +25 difference in getting the same result.  When you look at Vettel’s outright winning odds and the odds for a German winner, it’s the same at +225. If you like Bottas, bet on Finnish instead at +330 instead of Bottas at +250. The odds could change anytime but be sure to check both the outright winner odds and the prop bet on winning nationality to get better value.

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