2020 NASCAR Dixie Vodka 400 Betting Odds and Predictions

The 2020 NASCAR Cup Series moves to Homestead-Miami Speedway for the 2020 Dixie Vodka 400 on June 14, 2020, at 3:00 PM ET.

Contested over 267 laps on the 1.5-mile oval, the 2020 Dixie Vodka 400 is the 12th race of the 2020 NASCAR Cup Series season. This is the first time since 2001 that the Homestead contest is not the last race of the season.

Kyle Busch won here last year but Martin Truex Jr. has finished in the Top 2 in his last three starts in Miami.

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In the last race of the season held at Martinsville last June 10, 2020, Joe Gibbs Racing’s Martin Truex Jr. took the checkered flag in the 2020 Blu-Emu Maximum Relief 500.

Since he also won the 2019 First Data 500, Truex has now won the last two races at Martinsville, making him the first driver to win fall to spring back to back races since Jimmie Johnson in 2012 and 2013. Truex also joins Johsonm Denny Hamlin, Jeff Gordon, Rusty Wallace, Geoffrey Bodine, Cale Yarborough, Richard Petty, Fred Lorenzen, Bob Welborn, and Jim Paschal as back to back winners at the Martinsville Speedway. The win was also Truex’s fourth straight in the Commonwealth of Virginia.

Truex led only 132 of 500 laps, including the final 131 to take the first Cup race at night in the 73-year history of The Short Track. The victory was his first of the 2020 season and his 27th overall Cup Series win.

Ryan Blaney finished second despite taking a pit-road penalty in the final stage. Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano came in third and fourth, respectively while Chase Elliott finished in 5th place.

Here are the current Drivers standings for the 2020 NASCAR Cup Series season:

Now here are the odds to win the 2020 Dixie Vodka 400 on June 14, 2020. These odds were taken from the online sportsbook MyBookie.ag as of 06/12/2020:

Who Are the Favorites?

Kevin Harvick is the favorite to win again. The 2020 Cup Series leader finished 15th at Martinsville the last time out and that was his worst finish of the season. Before that, Harvick had never finished outside the Top 11 during the 2020 season. He was in the Top 9 from race one to seven and he won in Atlanta two races ago. However, Harvick’s last four races have produced finishes of 10,11,1, and 15. When it comes to Homestead, Harvick has finished in the Top 10 in 17 out of 19 starts with 11 Top 5 finishes and one victory.

Martin Truex Jr. had a rough start to the 2020 season but he’s picked it up lately. After finishing 14th or worse in the first four races of the season, he has picked up five Top 10 finishes in the last seven races, including a win at Martinsville in mid-week. He has been successful at Homestead as his last three starts there have produced a win and two second-place finishes. Looking farther back, Truex has placed sixth or better six times in his last nine races at the track. If you find a Top 10 prop bet for this race, Truex is almost a sure win there.

Kyle Busch is still trying to find the form that won him the Cup Series title last season. The two-time winner remains at 9th place in the latest standings. After a second-place finish in Atlanta, Busch faltered to 19th in the midweek race at Martinsville. Despite that, he has six Top 4 finishes in his last nine races of the year. Busch has won twice at Homestead and he has finished in the Top 10 in 8 of 15 races there.

Chase Elliott is currently third in the current Cup Series standings. Elliott finished 5th in the last race of the season and the 24-year old has five Top 10 finishes in his last seven races, including four in the Top 5. He has only four starts at Homestead but has two Top 10 finishes including one in the Top 5. His average finish of 9.5 is the third-best in the track and second only to Kevin Harvick among the current drivers in the 2020 Cup Series.

Joey Logano is chasing Kevin Harvick on top of the Cup Series mountain. Logano has two wins in 2020 and he finished 4th in the last race at Martinsville. He had a fast start to the season with two wins in the first four races of the year and he has four Top 10 finishes in his last six races of 2020. Logano has one win at Homestead and he has a total of six Top 10 finishes in 11 starts, four in the Top 5.

Who Wins?

Kyle Busch is an interesting pick here at +500. Busch won the last race here and the defending Cup Series champion has yet to win a race in 2020. Busch has been feast or famine in his races. He has six Top 4 finishes in his last nine races but also has finished 19th or worse in the other three.

But Kevin Harvick is also impressive at this race track. He’s led the most laps in the last 10 races at Homestead and has finished in the Top 10 in all his 10 starts here with seven Top 5 finishes. Harvick has finished 10th,11th, and 15th in three of his last four races of the season so it’s not a surprise if bettors stay away from him.

Truex is the hottest driver in this track with three straight Top 2 finishes including one win. He’s also coming off a win at the midweek race at Martinsville so he is in good form heading to the weekend.

I’ll agree if you pick one of either Kyle Busch, Harvick, and Truex because any of those three have a good shot at winning this race. However, if you ask me, I’m going with Harvick as he has been the most consistent driver at Homestead.

Prediction: Kevin Harvick

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