2020 Tuscan Grand Prix Betting Odds and Predictions

The Tuscan Grand Prix is the ninth race of the redrafted 2020 Formula One season. It will be held at the Mugello Circuit in Scarperia e San Piero in Tuscany, Italy. This will be the first-ever Formula One race at the race track and the third time this year that two consecutive races will be held in the same country.

The Tuscan Grand Prix is one of three races in the calendar that will be held in Italy. Last week’s Italian Open was the first one and the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix on November 1st will be the last of the trio of Italian races in the 2020 Formula One World Championship.

Here is the official schedule for the 2020 Tuscan Grand Prix:

2020 Italian Grand Prix

Last week’s Italian Grand Prix was a topsy-turvy race. The top six names in the odds board failed to finish in the podium. Carlos Sainz, who was 7th in the MyBookie.ag odds board at +5000, finished in second place behind winner Pierre Gasly who won the race as a +10000 longshot.

Odds on favorite Lewis Hamilton claimed the pole position, as he did in the previous two races. But unlike those previous two races where he dominantly won, he made an uncharacteristic error. The six-time world champion made a stop-and-go infraction after failing to notice that the Monza pit lane was closed. That cost him the race.

Gasly took advantage and outraced Sainz and Lance Stroll for the first victory of his career. Bottas finished 5th, Hamilton 7th, and Max Verstappen didn’t finish the race due to engine trouble.

Here are the current Drivers standings after the 2020 Italian Grand Prix:

Who are the Favorites?

Here are the latest betting odds to win the Tuscan Grand Prix outright. These odds were taken from MyBookie.ag as of 09/10/2020:

Lewis Hamilton is the betting favorite for the 9th consecutive race. The defending F-1 world champion has won five out of the eight races of the season but is coming off a 7th place finish at the Italian Grand Prix. The race was Hamilton’s to win but he made a rare mistake and was given a 10-second stop-and-go penalty that cost him the race. Despite the setback, Hamilton claimed his third straight pole and was ahead of the race up to the 23rd lap when he infraction happened. He still managed to finish 7th in the last race which was his worst finish of the season, and his second outside the podium. Both non-podium finishes were due to penalties.

Valtteri Bottas is coming off his best year ever and was off to a winning start this season. However, with Hamilton in the same race track, The Finn has had to settle for second place. Bottas has finished inside the Top 3 in six out of the eight races of the season and he’s finished in the Top 5 in all but one of the races this year. Bottas was 5th in last week’s Italian Grand Prix, his second to worst finish of the season.

Max Verstappen is the only legit non-Mercedes threat to Hamilton’s title so far this season. The Belgian-Dutch driver also has six Top 3 finishes in the first eight races of the season. Verstappen upset Hamilton at Silverstone for the 70th Anniversary Grand Prix race and is currently third in the Driver’s standings. Verstappen retired in last week’s Italian Grand Prix due to engine trouble. That was the second race this season that Verstappen was unable to finish.

Sergio Perez is currently 11th in the driver’s standings. The 30-year old is coming off a 10th place finish at the Italian Grand Prix and he has finished in the Top 10 in all six races he’s finished this year. Perez missed two consecutive races this season due to COVID-19 and since his return, he’s finished 5th, 10th, and 10th. He’s never won a Formula One race and only has a total of 8 podium finishes in 186 starts. But after what happened last week, who knows?

Carlos Sainz has climbed to 9th in the driver’s standings after his best finish of the season. The second-generation Spanish driver crossed the finish line second in last week’s Italian Grand Prix. He’s finished in the Top 10 in five out of the seven races he’s finished this season. Like Sergio Perez, Sainz has never won a Formula One race before. He only has one podium finish in his F-1 career, and that was a 3rd place finish in Brazil last year. 

Who Wins?

Prior to last week, Lewis Hamilton looked invincible on the race track. Up until the 23rd lap of the Italian Grand Prix, he still looked unbeatable. However, his stop-and-go infraction proved that he is human after all. But don’t let that error give you the hope that another longshot is going to win this race because Hamilton has such a killer instinct that he bounces back from a setback with a win. In the last nine times, he’s finished outside the Top 3, Hamilton has won the next race.

You know that Bottas and Verstappen are going to be the chief threats here and the rest are just longshots really. This race is in Italy so you have to think that with how low they’ve fallen, Ferrari is going to bounce back with a big week. It could be here because this is still considered a home race for him. It could be this weekend, as the team will celebrate its 1000th Grand Prix competed. It would be fantastic if Leclerc or Vettel win because of the odds they carry. But then again, let’s go back to reality.

Lewis Hamilton’s quest for 91 wins was halted last week. He is still at 89 but unless he commits another mental blunder, I will advise on going with the boring pick here. Take those ten seconds back and he would have had a third straight pole-to-flag victory. This is the first Formula One race at Mugello. With no previous track records to base your bets on, you have to rely on the cars. And when you talk about cars, it’s been Mercedes who’s had the most dominant car this year. With the best driver on that team as well, you have to go with the most in-form driver.

Prediction: Lewis Hamilton

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