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Cleveland Browns’ quarterback Baker Mayfield failed to follow-up a spectacular rookie season. His 2019 campaign was full of ups and downs and it ended with the former Oklahoma standout racking up a total of 3,827 passing yards with 22 touchdowns. Mayfield also ranked second in the NFL with a total of 21 interceptions thrown.
But the Browns made several key moves during the offseason that addressed many of their weaknesses in 2019. They hired a new head coach, upgraded their offensive line, and added a major offensive weapon. These moves are expected to help the Browns perform better this season. Likewise, they should also be able to help Mayfield have a bounce-back year.
Let’s take a look at the current 2020-21 season prop bets for Baker Mayfield:
Total Passing Yards 2020-21 Season
The posted total of 3,899.5 is just 72.5 yards more than what Baker Mayfield threw for last season and considering he had a bad year, he should easily surpass 3900 passing yards this season. Mayfield also threw for 3,725 yards while playing 14 games as a rookie and if he played in 16 games during his first NFL season, he would’ve easily added more passing yards in an additional two games.
Mayfield has played in a total of 29 games in the NFL. He’s averaged 253.5 passing yards per game over that period. If you translate that average to a 16-game season, that would be 4,056 yards or over the 3,900 total. It’s worth noting that Mayfield didn’t miss a single game last season.
Remember that in 2019, Mayfield almost had zero blindside help. That was one of the reasons why a team with such firepower was unable to produce up to par level. That was painful to watch but the Browns have not only fired Freddie Kitchens but they have also addressed the needs of their offensive line.
Browns Offense Gets Upgrades
First, new head coach Kevin Stefanski hired one of the best offensive line coaches in Bill Callahan. Then Cleveland drafted Alabama All-American Jedrick Wills with the 10th overall pick of the 2020 NFL draft. Then they did a tremendous job by signing Jack Conklin to a shorter deal that wasn’t too expensive given his skillset. Conklin was first-team All-Pro during his rookie season but suffered setbacks in 2018 and 2019 due to injuries. But with a year to heal, look for him to prove himself in 2020 after the Tennessee Titans dumped him for his backup. With these two acquisitions, the Browns may have gone from having the worst offensive line to one of the best in the league.
The Browns have also built their offense in the last couple of years and whether you like it or not, Cleveland has some of the best offensive skill players around Baker Mayfield. Sure, that didn’t show last season but with a new coach and a new opportunity to prove themselves, I think the Browns offense will have a bounce-back season.
Nick Chubb ranked second in the league in rushing yards with 1,494 and was third with 298 attempts. The Browns also have Kareem Hunt who led the league with 1,327 yards in 2017. Sure, Hunt is coming off his worst season in 2019 but there is no doubt that he can perform when healthy.
Mayfield has one of the best no. 2 receivers in the NFL in Jarvis Landry and he has a tight end in Njoku who has the potential of becoming a mismatch to defenses. Don’t forget Odell Beckham Jr. who is as talented as any offensive player can get. Then there is Austin Hooper, whom the Browns turned to the highest-paid tight end in the NFL. Hooper rose from a secondary option to be the primary weapon in Atlanta. He’s increased his numbers in each of his last three seasons.
The Stefanski Offense
This prop bet looks easy money but it isn’t. The argument against the total is that the Browns have a new head coach in Kevin Stefanski. While Stefanski is an upgrade from Freddie Kitchens, his offense may limit the production of Baker Mayfield.
In his lone full season as the offensive coordinator of the Minnesota Vikings, Kirk Cousins threw for only 3,603 yards during the season. Cousins was averaging 40.3 passing attempts and 284.5 passing yards per game before Stefanski arrived in Minnesota. Under Stefanski, Cousins’ numbers dipped to 29.2 pass attempts and 233.5 passing yards per game.
On the Other Hand
The Vikings ranked sixth in rushing offense and fourth in rush attempts under Stefanski which leads experts to believe that he will apply the same approach in Cleveland. Stefanski leaned more on Dalvin Cook and company in Minnesota and he is expected to tap Cleveland’s talented pair of Nick Chubbs and Kareem Hunt. With all that talent in the backfield, that should be Stefanski’s game plan and it could hurt Mayfield’s passing numbers next season.
Having looked at both sides of the coin, each has a valid argument. And if you ask me, it might be safe to stay away from this bet. However, if you point a gun to my head, I believe that Mayfield is too talented to pass below 4,000 yards under a new administration and with a better offensive line. I think that the extra half-second he will have in the pocket is going to make the difference.
Prediction: Over 3899.5 Yards
Total Passing Touchdowns 2020-21 Season
Baker Mayfield’s passing touchdown totals are an easier bet to make than the one above. Mayfield threw for a total of 27 passing touchdowns during his rookie season and he played in only 14 games during that year. Last season, his numbers dropped to 22 but as we said above, he was sacked 40 times last season and had one of the worst offensive lines in the league. With the moves they made, Mayfield should have a better season.
Over 24.5
-150
Under 24.5
+115
Odds were taken from Bovada as of 05/25/20
The Browns’ red zone calling was terrible under Freddie Kitchens. Meanwhile, Kirk Cousins ranked 5th in red-zone touchdowns with 16 in 51 attempts while completing 58.5% of his red-zone passes. Mayfield threw 15 red zone scores last season but was just 40% accurate with his red-zone passes, thanks to Kitchens’ predictable play-calling. Stefanski loves the play-action in the red zone. That should benefit Baker Mayfield’s touchdown numbers.
Prediction: Over 24.5
