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The Super Bowl LIII RB props that have been posted offer value in some places. This page will provide you with all the handicapping information that you need to make informed decisions.
Of course, you can’t bet the propositions if you don’t set up an account with a trustworthy online sportsbook. The websites below have been approved by our research team, so you can make legal online Super Bowl bets at these sites with total confidence.
- US Super Bowl Betting Sites
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- MyBookie
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Patriots Super Bowl LIII Running Back Props
Picking these propositions involved three different facets, and one of them is pure guesswork. It’s easy to evaluate the capabilities of the running backs, but you can’t predict the flow of the game with certainty.
All teams want to establish the run, but that is sometimes easier said than done. And of course, the rushing game can be largely abandoned if a team falls behind by a considerable margin.
There is also the matter of Todd Gurley, who can be a game changer or a bench warmer. It is definitely an imperfect science, but I’ve done the homework, and I have identified some weaknesses in the lines that can be exploited.
Sony Michel Props
The Patriots definitely hit the jackpot when they snagged University of Georgia running back Sony Michel with the 31st pick of the 2018 NFL draft. He has earned the feature back position, and we will start with the propositions that focus on his performance.
Rushing Yards Over/Under 72½
Bill Belichick and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels have asked the young back to shoulder a heavy load during the 2018 playoffs to this point. He gained 129 yards on the ground in the Chargers debacle, and he followed up that performance with 113 rushing yards against the Kansas City Chiefs.
The odds on this proposition are -120 over, and -110 under. I think that there is little doubt that the Patriots will give him every opportunity to carry the football, and I like the over here.
Pass Receptions Over/Under ½
MyBookie sportsbook has the odds on this prop at over -160, under +130 at the time of this writing. I wouldn’t be surprised if they up the total at some point and even out the money line a bit.
Michel has caught zero passes in six of the last sevens games, and he is almost never targeted. However, he can be an improv option occasionally when things break down around Tom Brady.
I would lean toward the over but I don’t think I’ll put out any money on this one.
Receiving Yards Over/Under 5½
This is a bet that doesn’t swing either way; it is -115 on both sides. If he catches even one pass, there’s a pretty good chance he can turn it into six yards or more, but it’s not worth betting on in my opinion.
Rushing and Receiving Yards Over/Under 78½
Okay, so the books estimate he will run for about 73 yards, but they think he is only good for one catch at best. If he gets exactly 73 on the ground, he has to get six yards on his hypothetical one catch to go over 78½.
That’s certainly doable, and he may well run for at least 79 yards and not need any passing yards to reward the over bettors. This wager is -115 in both directions, and an over play makes sense to me.
Rex Burkhead Props
Sony Michel gets the lion’s share of the carries for the Pats, but the 28-year-old University of Nebraska product Rex Burkhead gets some chances here and there. As a result, he is included on the list of Patriots Super Bowl LIII RB props.
Rushing Yards Over/Under 23½
Josh McDaniels gave Burkhead an unusually high number of touches in the AFC championship game at Kansas City. He carried the ball 12 times, and he gained 41 yards.
Rex has appeared in 10 games for the Patriots this year, has he has accumulated at least 24 yards in four of them. However, Michel didn’t play in the first game of the season. Burkhead replaced him and got 18 carries and 64 yards, so that is an outlier.
MyBookie has both the over and the under at -110. If I had to bet this, I’d take the over, but I don’t have to bet it, so I won’t.
Passing Receptions Over/Under 2
The over on this prop is favored at -125, and the under is -105. Burkhead has caught at least three passes in three of his last five contests. I think the over is the better bet if you dive into this one, but I have tepid interest.
Receiving Yards Over/Under 17½
Books are taking more action on the over, so you have to lay -125 if you think he will get at least 18 receiving yards, and the other option is -105. This is a crapshoot, and I don’t roll them bones.
Rushing and Receiving Yards Over/Under 41½
This is another prop that has the same -115 money line for the over and the under. Unfortunately, I don’t have access to the Patriots game plan. Sometimes they use the guy, and sometimes they don’t. I’ll stay away.
James White Props
The Patriots have a three-headed threat at running back, and James White rounds out the trio. He gets more action than Rex, and he is an excellent pass catcher out of the backfield.
Rushing Yards Over/Under 25½
For this prop the tilt is toward the under at -120, with a -110 line on the over. In the playoff game against the Chargers, he had zero carries, and he got 23 yards on six tries in the AFC Championship tilt.
Under looks more likely to me, but I don’t have a strong opinion.
Pass Reception Over/Under 6
White is an outstanding receiver who is sometimes targeted quite often. As we stated above, he didn’t get a single carry in the Chargers game, but Tom Brady threw the ball his way 17 times. He hauled in 15 of the targets.
That was his busiest day of the season, and he followed that up with four catches against the Chiefs. The odds are -130 over and even money under.
Receiving Yards Over/Under 47½
He had 49 receiving yards on his four grabs in the KC game, and 97 in that big game against the other team for L.A. White did not register more than 39 receiving yards in any of the four previous contests.
You have to lay $125 to win $100 on the over, and the under is -105. I would take a shot with the under here; there are many pathways to that outcome.
Rushing and Receiving Yards 73½
This is toss-up prop at -115 regardless of what you like. He has eclipsed this number just once in his last six outings, and that was the anomalous 17 target game. If you believe in numerical probabilities, you have to see some value in the under.
Rams Super Bowl LIII Running Back Props
It is going to be very difficult to handicap the Los Angeles Rams propositions for the running backs. Todd Gurley may be the most impactful offensive player in the league when he’s healthy, but he has been largely absent over recent weeks.
We will pass along the odds and the relevant facts here, but I’m not going to make a lot of bold predictions, because we don’t know who is going to get most of the carries for the L.A. contingent.
Todd Gurley Props
As we have stated, the other Georgia Bulldog first rounder in this game may or may not see a lot of action. Keep an eye on any updates about his status that may become available on the days leading up to the Super Bowl.
I’m handicapping these props with a great deal of skepticism about his physical condition, but people that see him practice closer to game time may have a rosier outlook.
Rushing Yards Over/Under 83½
Todd Gurley was on the short list of MVP candidates for most of the year, but now there are those question marks. In the NFC championship game, he carried the ball 4 times for 10 yards.
Gurley says that he wasn’t injured, but that is hard to believe. He did have a solid game against Dallas the previous week with 115 yards on 16 carries. That may have taken a toll on the left knee that he injured during the Week 15 loss to the Eagles.
The over is -105, and the under is -125, so bettors are thinking he probably won’t be himself.
Pass Receptions Over/Under 3½
Todd has caught at least four passes once in his last seven games. In spite of this, the over bet is favored at -135, and the under is +105. Even when he is right he doesn’t always catch a lot of passes, so I think the under is a strong statistical play.
Receiving Yards Over/Under 39½
The odds on this proposition wager stand at -115 on either choice. He had three receiving yards in each of the two previous playoff games, and has registered 39 receiving yards or less in five of his last six outings. This is another under play if you go by recent history.
Rushing and Receiving Yards Over/Under 123½
Under is -120 at MyBookie sportsbook as I write this, and over is -110. Once again, if you take recency into account, it looks like an under play, but we simply don’t know which Gurley will show up.
C.J. Anderson Props
The Rams made a great move snatching up Anderson after Gurley got injured. He has been a fine addition, and he is fresh. However, once again, we are in the dark with regard to the number of touches he will receive.
Rushing Yards Over/Under 59½
Anderson rambled for more than a hundred yards in each of his first three games for the Los Angeles contingent. However, New Orleans had his number, and he was held to a mere 44 yards in the Big Easy.
The over on this Super Bowl prop bet is -105, and the under is -125. I think that he will be hard pressed to gain 60 yards against the Patriots, even if he gets the majority of the carries for the Rams.
Passing Receptions Over/Under ½
If you are willing to bet that he will catch at least one pass, you have to live with -140, and the under is +110. C.J. Anderson has caught a pass in three of his four games in a Rams uniform, but I am noncommittal on this one.
Receiving Yards Over/Under 5½
The underside of this one is -125, and the over is -105. Simply put, your guess is as good as mine.
He gained 5 on his one catch against the Saints, and he lost five on his lone reception in the Arizona game. When the Rams blew out the Niners in Week 17, he had three grabs for 22 yards.
Rushing and Receiving Yards Over/Under 65½
This wager is -115 regardless of which way you want to go. Look at it this way: He was the feature back in the NFC Championship Game and he managed 49 combined rushing and passing yards. Under seems like the right play if you want to take a shot at this prop.
New England Patriots vs. Los Angeles Rams RB Props
Sony Michel vs. Todd Gurley Rushing Yards
Michel is a sure thing as “the guy” for the Pats, but Gurley’s status is hazy. As a result, Sony is favored to gain more rushing yards at -135, and TG is +105.
I would go with Michel, but there is always an element of doubt here.
Sony Michel vs. C.J. Anderson Rushing Yards
Michel is -400, and C.J. is +250. It would seem like a slam dunk on Sony, but what if he gets hurt in the first quarter? What if Anderson runs like he did against Dallas in the playoffs and racks up 123 yards on the ground? I don’t like laying $400 to win $100 when there is so much uncertainty.
