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The Miami Dolphins succeeded in their “Tank for Tua” project.
The Dolphins selected Tagovailoa with the 5th overall pick of the 2020 NFL draft. Tagovailoa was an All-American at Alabama but he had an injury-plagued collegiate career, including a hip injury that ended his 2019 campaign.
Up until Alabama’s Week 12 game against Mississippi State where he suffered a hip injury, Tagovailoa was considered as a can’t miss prospect in the NFL. His ability to scramble and make plays in the best conference in college football made experts and scouts debate whether he of Joe Burrow of LSU would be picked first overall in the 2020 NFL Draft. But Tagovailoa got hurt and Burrow ended up getting picked first overall.
Tagovailoa saw limited action during his freshman season at Alabama. He was thrust into action when Jalen Hurts got hurt during the 2019 National Football Championship game. Tagovailoa played the second half, threw three touchdowns, and led his team to a come-from-behind 26-23 win over Clemson.
He earned the starting role in his sophomore season and set school records with 3,966 passing yards and 43 touchdowns. He guided his team to a 14-0 record but they lost to Clemson in the 2019 National Championship. In 2019, he was on pace to repeat his record-breaking sophomore season. But then, the hip injury ended not just his season but his college career.
Overall, Tagovailoa threw 7,442, passing yards with 87 touchdowns and just 11 interceptions plus 340 rushing yards with nine rushing touchdowns in a total of 32 games played. Now he is in the NFL, playing for the team that desired him since last year.
Let’s take a look at the popular Tua Tagovailoa prop bets in the market:
Will Tua Start in Week 1 for the Dolphins?
Oddsmakers aren’t optimistic that Tagovailoa will start for the Miami Dolphins right away in week 1. For one, the Dolphins have a competent quarterback who can start for them in the short-term. Ryan Fitzpatrick threw for 3,529 yards with 20 touchdowns last season. Fitzpatrick also helped wideout Devante Parker breakout with 72 catches for 1,202 receiving yards with nine touchdown passes caught.
Fitzpatrick will be turning 38 this season and he is at the tail end of his career. But there is no doubt that he can lead the Dolphins for one more season. Miami is undergoing a rebuild and making the playoffs is unlikely. Tagovailoa is coming off a major injury and giving him additional time to rest will do the Dolphins well for their future.
Tagovailoa isn’t new to being a back-up. He played that role for most of his freshman season in college. That was until Jalen Hurts got hurt and Tagovailoa took over in the second half of the 2018 National Football Championship game versus Georgia. The rest is history. I’m not saying that Tua sits out the entire season but as far as week 1 is concerned, I think that Fitzpatrick is still the guy.
Prediction: No (-290)
Tua Tagovailoa Passing Yards
During the last 10 seasons, 14 rookie quarterbacks have passed over the 3,200-yard mark. During the last two seasons, only Baker Mayfield (3,725), Gardner Minshaw (3,271), and Kyler Murray (3,722) have passed that mark. It’s worth noting though that Minshew and Mayfield played 14 games while Murray played all 16 games for the Cardinals last season.
If Tagovailoa has to pass for over 3,200 yards, he will need roughly 14 games to hit that mark. Given that Miami still has Ryan Fitzpatrick, I’m not sure if Tagovailoa can play in at least 14 games this season. Even if he does, questions are surrounding his injury and he will still have to answer that on the field.
Granting Tagovailoa starts at least 14 games and is healthy, then he has a good shot at beating the mark. He has a good cast around him in Miami in 2020. DeVante Parker is coming off a career-year while Preston Wiliams was impressive before he suffered an ACL injury. Running backs Jordan Howard and Matt Brieda are also passing threats from the backfield.
How much playing time Tagovailoa gets is the main factor in this prop bet. All things considered, Fitzpatrick should play in the final season of his contract. Unless Tua starts at least 14 games, I think this one is going under.
Prediction: Under 3200 (-120)
Tua Tagovailoa Passing Touchdowns
As stated above, there are a couple of factors that are going to affect the Tua Tagovailoa performance prop bets. His health is one question but even if he is 100%, there is no guarantee on how many minutes he will get during his rookie season. The Dolphins aren’t expected to make the playoffs and Ryan Fitzpatrick helped Miami win five out of its last nine games. Some believe that Fitzpatrick will start in Week 1 and will remain as such unless he gets hurt.
Over 19
-120
Under 19
-120
Odds were taken from BetOnline as of 05/05/20
Last season, a total of 24 quarterbacks threw at least 19 touchdowns in the NFL. Aside from Matthew Stafford who needed only 8 games played to throw 19 scores last season, the rest of the group needed at least 10 games to reach their marks. Sam Darnold played 13 games and threw 19 touchdowns. If Tagovailoa plays that much, he will most definitely break the 19 TD mark. However, I don’t think that Miami will rush him during his rookie season.
Prediction: Under 19
Tua Tagovailoa Total Interceptions
Only five quarterbacks threw 15 or more interceptions in the NFL last season and four of them played all 16 regular-season games. Kyle Allen had 16 interceptions in 13 games. Rookies Kyler Murray, Gardner Minshaw, and Dwayne Haskins had 12 or fewer interceptions.
Over 15.5
-120
Under 15.5
-120
Odds were taken from BetOnline as of 05/05/20
We’re not sure if Tagovailoa plays 13 games next season. And it looks highly unlikely that he will play 16 games during his rookie year. This is the easiest Tua Tagovailoa prop bet. I think this one’s going under because he’s not playing enough games, if any, at all next season.
Prediction: Under 15.5
