The middle of June has arrived, which means the days are moving fast and getting us closer to another NFL season. Even before we get to that point, we’re going to be thinking about what to do for our fantasy football drafts. One big advantage every year every fantasy owner can have is researching ADP (Average Draft Position) and noting the top values that can be had – and where they’re going – in fantasy football drafts.
ADP fluctuates as the summer moves along, but keeping tabs on who league managers are already disrespecting or devaluing can be key in developing your draft strategy. To help us get a good idea of some of the best value, we took a look at the latest ADP results in a standard, 12-team fantasy league. Per FantasyFootballCalculator.com, we found several sleeper quarterbacks we won’t mind waiting to draft come August. Let’s check them out:
This is a good spot to start pointing out serious value, as Bortles was the 4th best fantasy quarterback a year ago, yet you don’t have to take him until round seven. The important question is what has changed for Bortles? His weapons are all still there, this time around he actually has tight end Julius Thomas for a full season and he’s only going to be smarter and more comfortable with another off-season to correct his flaws.
Bortles has a cannon for an arm, strong athletic ability and a slew of tantalizing weapons. He blew up in his sophomore season and it’s quite arguable he’s only just now scratching the surface of his talent. He isn’t a lock to be a top-5 fantasy passer again, but if you’re getting him in the seventh round, he doesn’t have to be.
Right behind Bortles last year was Palmer, who was the 5th best quarterback in fantasy football and really was outstanding for much of the year. Aside from an implosion in the NFC title game, again, what’s changed? Palmer is still a maestro in the pocket, has a great running game and defense behind him and a slew of weapons that can score all over the field.
Age, injury and mental fatigue are all mild concerns, but that shouldn’t scare you away from a potentially elite QB1 in round seven. All of that might keep him from being a pick off the board in the first 3-4 rounds, but at this ADP Palmer is beyond a steal. Make him your QB1 and never look back.
Manning had shaky pass protection, no help from his defense or running game and even didn’t get Victor Cruz back last year, yet he still enjoyed one of his best seasons ever in 2015. When the dust settled, Manning had torched the league to the tune of a career high 35 passing touchdowns and also put up over 4,400 passing yards.
He was working with Odell Beckham Jr. and little else, yet Manning produced the 10th best numbers at his position. In 2016, he has some upgrades across the roster, should finally get Cruz back and also gets talented rookie receiver Sterling Shepard at his disposal. It’s tough to guarantee him being the 10th best fantasy passer again, but considering he’s finished inside that grouping three times in the last five years, fantasy owners aren’t taking a crazy leap of faith. The fact that you can wait to draft him until round 9 only lessens the insanity.
Carr is right there with Manning, but could be even better in 2016 as he enters his third NFL seasons. Carr is younger and has more upside to his game, especially when you look at a young, rising Raiders offense. Carr has a gunslinger mentality and we saw right away in just his second season (32 touchdown passes) that the kid can play ball with the big boys.
In year three his supporting cast will only be better and Carr could start chipping away at the top-10. He still finished 14th among fantasy quarterbacks in 2015, however, and could be ready to risk up the ranks. Drafting Carr hinges to your belief in him and Oakland’s return to relevance, but at least the risk is minimal this late in your draft.
Speaking of risk, drafting Romo could be problematic for one reason: he’s increasingly more injury-prone. Well, he was in 2015, at least. Romo broke his collarbone early in the season, rushed back from the injury and hurt it again to close the year. In all, he started four games and the 2015 season was a total disaster.
When healthy, though, Romo remains a total boss in the fantasy realm. Just in 2014 Romo put up 34 touchdowns and from 2011 to 2014, he hadn’t dipped below 28 touchdown passes. Romo still has Dez Bryant and Jason Witten at his disposal and even should be getting some serious help from rookie stud Ezekiel Elliott on the ground.
The trick is Romo’s health. Can you trust a 36-year old quarterback with a bad back and a history of messing up his clavicle? Trust? No. But you can take a chance on him staying healthy and regaining his old form when you don’t have to pluck him off of drafts boards until round 10.
It really only gets better as we go here, as Dalton was enjoying easily his best statistical season of his career and looked like a legit MVP candidate last year, and then he broke his thumb. Dalton was so good, in fact, that he was still fantasy football’s 18th best quarterback on the year despite playing just 13 complete games and finishing only 12.
Had he been able to finish the year with the weapons he had, it’s very reasonable to imagine Dalton skating past the top-15 and finding himself somewhere inside the top-10. We can’t prove that, but what we can prove is the guy has made strides over the years and his awesome 2015 wasn’t a fluke. He was also the #4 fantasy passer in 2013.
It’s true that Dalton takes some hits this year, too. He lost wide receivers Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu to free agency, tight end Tyler Eifert could start 2016 slow due to injury and even his offensive coordinator – Hue Jackson – bolted for Cleveland. It is possible that Dalton sees a mild dip in 2016, but it’s also just as possible that he simply picks up where he left off and continues to crush it. It could be worth finding out in round 10.
Mariota is a fun try in round 11, as you’re potentially getting insane value for a rising second-year quarterback and you’re also getting all of the upside. Mariota put that on display just in doses as a rookie, but it’s tough to grade him accurately due to a shaky o-line, an awful supporting running game and his inexperience.
Considering everything, Mariota was mighty fine in his first season, finishing just two spots outside of the top-20 despite sitting out four full games and parts of five due to injury. Mariota did a great job taking care of the football, was impressive with his accuracy and decision-making, exhibited elite running ability and even had a few big games throwing the ball. Tennessee needs more out of him in 2016 and if he’s truly the real deal, they’re probably going to get it pretty quickly.
The only thing holding Mariota back at this point is his shaky pass protection. The good news is he’s mobile and can make plays even if the o-line still stinks, but the even better news is Tennessee did take measures to improve the blocking, as well as enhance their running game to avoid being so predictable offensively. Mariota is going to be better in 2016 and quite understandably, the sky might be the limit. Needless to say, landing him in round 11 should make him one of the top steals in your fantasy football draft.
Another interesting find in round 11 is Matt Ryan, who may not necessarily possess the upside of someone like Mariota, but through the years has easily been one of the safest and reliable passing threats. He did lose a friendly face in Roddy White this offseason, but he also gained some young help at receiver and still has Julio Jones.
Ryan struggled with turnovers during a down year in 2015, but still has explosive potential and managed to top 4,500 passing yards and hit 25 touchdowns through the air. That was good for 19th among fantasy passers and if he can cut his turnovers down and help the Falcons be a little more balanced offensively, a return to the top-15 is a near-lock. If that happens, he’s going to be a serious value this late in drafts.
Stafford loses Calvin Johnson and suddenly everyone forgets about a pretty stellar 2015 season that saw him finish 9th among fantasy quarterbacks. It’s true that losing Megatron could be a pretty big deal, but it also could completely open Detroit’s offense up. That actually happened long before we learned of Johnson’s retirement, too, as the Lions made personnel changes and made their offense a lot more spread out and less predictable.
That is what is Stafford’s best friend going forward; not having tunnel vision for a superstar wide receiver that may be regressing before our very eyes. Stafford has a budding tight end in Eric Ebron, a shifty burner in Golden Tate and a new big target in Marvin Jones.
Unlike past years, Stafford can freely determined where he’s going with the ball and allow his system to take flight, rather than rely so heavily on one guy. It could still backfire, but the results out of Stafford down the stretch last year (17 to 1 TD:INT ratio over his final six games) tells us he’s trending in the right direction. You’re going to want to consider getting in on that action if he continues to last into round 12.
Ryan Tannehill is the last gem to consider at quarterback this year, and depending on when your draft sounds off, you may want to be all over him as your top quarterback. For one, he was pretty solid for much of 2015, finishing as fantasy footbal’s 17th best passer. That’s not great, but Tannehill has solid numbers on the year and still got the job done a good amount (nine multi-touchdown games).
The problem for Tannehill was his team was dysfunctional and he really didn’t have a firm backing. That toxic environment has been destroyed, however, and in comes brilliant offensive guru, Adam Gase. Gase has worked wonders in Denver and Chicago, just last year making Jay Cutler look like a maestro with better placement and decision-making.
Those are precisely two of Tannehill’s biggest weaknesses, while Gase’s system will dial things up that should only strengthen Tannehill’s upside. Throw in a slew of talented receiving weapons, and Tannehill could easily be headed for his best season yet. That’s saying something for a guy who finished 7th among fantasy passers in 2014.
That does it for our favorite quarterback ADP sleepers. Got a sliding stud of your own? Hate a guy on our list? Tell us all about it in the comments below!
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