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The fallout of Kevin Durant’s decision to flee to Golden State is all anyone has been able to talk about the past several days, but there is only one sport that is actually in-season that takes the cake right now, and it’s not the NBA.
With pro basketball’s biggest rumor pushing move over with, it’s back to the MLB drawing board, where MLB bettors crave underdog upsets that can inflate their betting bankroll for the remainder of the regular season.
Chasing MLB underdogs can be a dangerous game, but if you hunt out the right situations and stretch your money out, you can make some cash by taking some nominal risks. Shaky pitchers, teams going out on the road, teams that feel due and simple mismatches can play into some fluid odds working in your favor. Or it can blow up in your face, just as the baseball gods would have it.
The point is, in addition to your safe bets you’re stretching out each day in MLB betting, you want to know which upsets you can at least consider throwing some money down on. We’ve got four to think about for Friday night’s main slate:
Pirates Over Cubs
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+145) are a very interesting upset pick tonight for a laundry list of reasons. For one, they’re at home, where they’ve gone a respectable 22-19. The Pirates also hate the Cubs and are red hot at the moment, winning seven of their last 10 contests.
There is the problem of opposing pitcher Jake Arrieta, but they could be facing him at the perfect time, as the normally elite arm has struggled in two straight games. Pittsburgh isn’t a lock by any means, but they’re at home, on fire and have a matchup that might look a lot tougher than it actually will be.
Tigers Over Blue Jays
Tonight we get what could easily be the best MLB game of the entire slate, as two very solid teams that are on fire face off in Toronto. There is a lot to like about the Jays, who are 8-2 in their last 10 games, have won six in a row and are inching closer to first place in the AL East. They’re also dominant at home (25-19) and are cooking with gas offensively.
Still, there is enough here to sniff out an upset. The Tigers (+165) are about as hot (7-3 in last 10 contests), have an offense that is just as potent and they’re also not terrible (22-25) on the road. The bummer is Mike Pelfrey is taking the mound, with J.A. Happ on the other side for the Jays. There is no denying that Toronto is right to be favored tonight (-185 per Bovada) but the idea here is Detroit’s offense could get the best of Happ, who they ripped apart earlier this year. Toronto remains the safer bet, but if you’re looking for a sneaky underdog with moderate payout potential, consider the Tigers tonight.
Reds Over Marlins
Miami is at home against an inferior team and the unstoppable Jose Fernandez is on the mound. Naturally, the Marlins (-290 odds to win at Bovada) are the obvious choice to win tonight. Miami has more working in their favor, too, as they’re a solid 21-19 at home and their offense gets to go up against one of the worst defenses in the league.
The main play is simply the odds in this one. Cincinnati (+245) could offer a pretty nice payout, they’ve won two straight and they do have an offense that can explode. However, they’re absolutely atrocious on the road and on the year they’ve been one of the worst teams in all of baseball. It’s not very likely that Fernandez trips up at home and loses this for Miami, so the play is to hope Dan Straily can come out and keep the Reds in it. It’s not a safe or sexy bet, but if he can hold his own and the Reds bring the bats late, you could profit here tonight.
Braves Over White Sox
Same deal here, as Atlanta’s odds (+260) offer the most upside of any underdog on the night. It’s tough to buy into their “upside”, admittedly, as they’re on the road against a White Sox squad (-319) that is heavily favored with the elite Chris Sale hurling balls at them.
Chicago has been a bit erratic this year, but they’ve turned it back on lately, winning seven of their last 10 games. They’re also a decent 23-20 at their own house in 2016 and have seen their offense show up in spurts at a pretty high level. The Braves will hope tonight that isn’t the case. Instead, they’ll hope Matt Wisler can have one of his good outings. That might be possible, too, since he’s oddly been at his best on the road this year, while the Braves have also won more games away from home than at their home base in 2016.
Sometimes you just need to roll with the unlikely play, too. Atlanta over Chicago makes zero sense when you take a step back, but the Braves are uncanny when it comes to producing runs against elite arms. They’ve been pretty horrible lately, but they did just take down Jason Hammel. If Wisler shows up tonight, they could be a fun bet to make Friday night baseball even more exciting.
Got a fun MLB underdog of your own? Feel free to tell us all about them in the comments below! Happy betting!
