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The 2015-16 NBA Playoffs officially tip off on Saturday, with the Indiana Pacers and Toronto Raptors starting the action at 12:30 pm ET at Air Canada Centre. That’s an early start if we’ve ever seen one, giving us a jam-packed weekend of post-season basketball action. We get four games on Saturday and four more on Sunday as we open round one.
Playoff NBA betting is a bit different than regular season betting, as it can be quite tough to gauge on a per-game basis. Picking the winner of a first round series shouldn’t be nearly as difficult, but often in game one of an early round series, you will want to be on the lookout for a random upset or someone unexpectedly beating the spread. Let’s keep that into consideration as we take a look at Saturday’s four-game slate and see which way you might want to lean with your bets:
Pacers (7) @ Raptors (2)
Line: Raptors -6.5 Total: 194.5
Toronto hosts game one at home, where they were a startling 32-9 during the regular season. They have the better offense, the better defense, won three of four regular season meetings and just might have a defensive stopper (DeMarre Carroll) to sick on Paul George. The only real argument against the Raptors here is Paul George having a huge game and the horror of last year’s first round sweep to the Wizards comes back to haunt Toronto to get this series started.
The Raptors are rested and healthy, and should be more than focused at home. Getting the monkey off their back and getting that first win is huge for them, so it’s likely they get it. Look for the Raptors to continue playing their best ball at home as they win/cover to open up the 2015-16 NBA playoffs.
Pick: Raptors 105, Pacers 97
Rockets (8) @ Warriors (1)
Line: Warriors -13 Total: 225
Vegas obviously isn’t giving Houston a chance here, and why should they? The Rockets probably shouldn’t have made the Western Conference Finals last year, and once they got there they could only beat the Warriors once. Fast forward to this year, and they’ve been pedestrian (41-41) throughout, have a new (inexperienced) head coach and a star center in Dwight Howard that appears to have mentally checked out. Oh, and the Warriors swept them (3-0) during the regular season this year.
Golden State doesn’t need an argument in their favor. They’ve last two games at the Oracle Arena in the past year and have claimed 12 of the last 13 meetings. Houston has James Harden and some nice offense, but they can’t defend and aren’t really equipped to stop the Warriors. That being said, Houston will come out with a chip on their shoulder and did give the Rockets two very hard games on the road to start last year’s series. I think Houston beats the spread tonight.
Pick: Warriors 108, Rockets 102
Celtics (5) @ Hawks (4)
Line: Hawks -5 Total: 204
This is my favorite series for a full blown upset, simply because the Hawks can be rather uninspiring sometimes. They defend well, can get hot offensively and have actually (by record) been one of the best teams in the last month or so. They also lost two in a row as they backed into the playoffs, including a real bummer of a loss in D.C. to a Wizards team sans John Wall, Brad Beal or anything to play for.
Boston, on the other hand, beat a Heat squad in the finale that was looking for a division title (they still got it thanks to the Hawks) and come in with the ability to explode offensively and batten down the hatches on defense. Of course, none of that mattered during the regular season, where Atlanta stole three of four meetings. None of Boston’s defeats to Atlanta were by less than 8 points, either, so on the surface this looks like a discouraging matchup – especially with game on in ATL, where the Hawks are a stout 27-14.
An upset still looms large. It’s worth debating if the Celtics can outlast the Hawks for the entire series, but they have a certain mojo and balance to them. Isaiah Thomas gives them 20+ points nightly, while the likes of Avery Bradley, Marcus Smart and Jae Crowder are pesky, defensive fiends. Brad Stevens supplies the strategy and general smarts, while we can’t discount heart and drive here. After all, this Boston team was the first team to go into the Oracle Arena and hand the mighty Warriors a home loss this season.
Atlanta is also good for disappointment. They completely caved in a 4-0 sweep in the Eastern Conference Finals last year (although the games were tight) and it’d be quite fitting for them to get off to a slow start to open up this series. The real bet may be giving Boston a shot to beat the spread, but I’m going full upset and picking them to take game one on Saturday night.
Pick: Celtics 104, Hawks 101
Mavericks (6) @ Thunder (3)
Line: Thunder -12 Total: 208.5
It’s hard not to pull for an aging Dirk Nowitzki, but he’s been regressing hard over the last few weeks and appears too worn down to carry Dallas past round one. That’d be the case no matter the matchup, but pit them against a dynamite OKC team that swept them (4-0) this year, and you’re looking at a Mavs team in serious trouble.
OKC does not scare teams defensively and don’t have a lot to get excited about beyond their two main stars, but Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook together is about as nasty as it gets. The real issue isn’t defense or depth here. It’s star power. The Thunder have two superstars that both can kill Dallas all day, yet the Mavs lack even one at this point and don’t have a single player that can stop either KD or Westbrook. Dallas does have enough offensive fire power to make things interesting and Dirk could be good for a vintage performance or two, but a sweep is a very realistic (if not likely) possibility. If the Mavs do steal a win, it’ll need heroics and it will be on their home floor – not in game one on the road.
Pick: Thunder 106, Mavs 98
