An All Mexican Showdown: Canelo Alvarez vs. Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. Odds and Preview

Cinco De Mayo weekend heats up as the two most popular Mexican fighters today square off in a catchweight bout on May 6th, 2017 at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.

The Real Deal

Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez is Golden Boy’s flagship fighter. He is also the best fighter from Mexico, regardless of weight class. Alvarez was looking at a mega buck showdown with Gennady Golovkin  but with negotiations failing, he settled for this all-Mexican showdown against the son of the legend.

Canelo hasn’t lost since getting schooled by Floyd Mayweather Jr. in 2013. Alvarez has won six in a row since losing to Money,  including four by stoppage. In his most recent bout, Alvarez returned to the title picture by stopping Liam Smith last September.

Son of the Legend

Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. has always been overshadowed by his great father and namesake. The former WBC middleweight champion has also been hounded by personal problems all throughout his career.  Still, he has found his way to yet another big fight. Junior hopes to erase all doubts about show serious he is with his boxing career.

The Odds

Canelo is a -700 favorite against Chavez Jr., who is a +450 underdog as of this writing. Alvarez has knockout power and does a good job working the body. Defensively, Canelo is sharp and he has a proven chin given that he has faced some of the biggest names in the sport. The only concern with Alvarez is that he sometimes has struggle controlling the ring, thus allowing quick and athletic opponents to move from harm’s way. Knowing his opponent though, this shouldn’t be a problem on fight night.

Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. only knows one way to fight and that’s moving forward. He likes to use a lot of activity and would rather punch his way to winning rounds rather than wait to land his haymaker. Like Alvarez, Junior likes to work his opponent’s body. He also has knockout power if he can land his right hand. The problem with Junior here, as is with his previous fights,  will be the weight.

Weight is a Factor

The bout is contracted for 164.5 pounds. It will be the highest weight at which Canelo will have fought in. For Chavez though, it will be the lightest weight since he fought Sergio Martinez for the world middleweight title in 2012. Since then, Chavez has struggled with his weight. In his most recent bout, Chavez weighed in at 169 against Dominik Britsch. It will be interesting how he carries the lighter weight against Canelo.

Weight aside, Canelo Alvarez is the superior fighter here. Alvarez is simply the better skilled and more polished boxer. He also has the better experience against top level competition. We’re not discounting the possibility of a Chavez upset, by KO or otherwise, but it’s hard to see him outbox and outsmart Canelo Alvarez. Love or hate Saul Alvarez, he is Mexico’s best boxer. And we’ll see that on Cinco de Mayo weekend. We’re picking Alvarez to win by late KO or points.