All posts by Chris Blain

UFC 213 Odds: Yoel Romero vs Robert Whitaker Prediction

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After the confusion, a UFC middleweight title fight will be the co-main event of UFC 213. It’s not just the regular title fight, though.

Only An Interim Middleweight Title

With the UFC women’s bantamweight title fight between Amanda Nunes and Valentina Shevchenko headlining the UFC’s July 8th event, the UFC announced that an interim middleweight title bout between Yoel Romero and Robert Whitaker will serve as the appetizer:

Originally, it was believed that Michael Bisping would be defending his middleweight title belt against Georges St. Pierre at UFC 213. But GSP asked for a later date and Bisping suffered an injury so the UFC decided to come up with yet another interim title fight. So while Romero and Whitaker can finally hoist a title belt, it’s only an interim one.

Knockout Artists

This is a bout between two knockout artists. 11 of Romero’s 12 wins have been by knockout. His last Octagon appearance was a third round stoppage of Chris Weidman at UFC 205. Whitaker, meanwhile, is coming off a sensational second round knockout of Ronaldo ‘Jacare’ Souza at UFC on Fox 24. Whitaker has won seven fights in a row since losing to Stephen Thompson. Four of those victories, including the last two, have been by stoppage.

Odds and Preview

This is as close as it gets. Current odds have Romero as a slight -130 favorite against Whitaker, who is at even money. Both these fighters need just one punch to win the bout; that’s why the odds are this tight for this interim UFC middleweight title bout. Personally, I think Whitaker has more power and is the more explosive puncher here but he’s facing a veteran who is very skilled on the ground.

Romero’s advantage is his experience. He is a former world champion and Olympic silver medalist in freestyle wrestling so that alone speaks greatly of his grappling prowess. Romero also averages 1.96 takedowns landed per 15 minutes, which is almost four times Robert Whitaker’s average. And if you ask me, he’s going to do more of that against Whitaker who is more dangerous on his feet than on the ground. Whitaker’s takedown defense is excellent though at 91%. He stuffed all of Rafael Natal’s four takedown attempts and yielded only one of three takedowns to Jacare Souza in his most recent bout.

We’re going with Yoel Romero here despite Robert Whitaker being the more dangerous puncher. Romero’s gonna be smart enough to take this fight to the ground and work from there. Striking with Whitaker is going to be hit or miss. We’re predicting Yoel Romero to win a tough, rugged decision.

Manny Pacquiao vs. Jeff Horn: Does the Aussie Have A Chance?

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Filipino ring legend Manny Pacquiao returns to the boxing ring on July 2nd, 2017 to face young Australian Jeff Horn at the SunCorp Stadium in Brisbane, Australia.

Legend Still Has It

Aptly dubbed as the Battle of Brisbane, the bout will be for Pacquiao’s WBO welterweight title, which he won after a masterful domination of Jessie Vargas last November. The 38-year old Pacquiao announced his retirement after the bout but despite being busy with his duties as a lawmaker in his country, the Pacman’s urge to fight will bring him to Australia for the first time in his boxing career.

Although Pacquiao should be well past his prime, he still proved that he still has what it takes to take on the best welterweights in the business. Prior to beating Vargas, Pacquiao masterfully out-boxed Timothy Bradley in April of 2016 to prove that he still belongs among the elite. The victory over Bradley was his first bout since losing to Floyd Mayweather Jr. in 2015.

Dangerous Opponent

Jeff Horn is nowhere near the caliber of fighter Jessie Vargas is, much more Timothy Bradley. But unlike both, he presents a clear and present danger for Pacquiao simply because he is a wild card with nothing to lose and everything to gain.

Horn is coming off a December victory over Ali Funeka and is considered the best pound for pound fighter in Australia. He has limited athleticism but has enough power to put his opponents to sleep. Horn is also a smart boxer who can counter well and dodge punches. Manny Pacquiao though is a giant leap in level of competition for the fighting former school teacher. This is an odd fight for Pacman because he is one of the biggest names in the sport and has nothing to prove. Yet he will be fighting an unknown but solid fighter on hostile ground.

Odds and Prediction

Pacquiao is currently a -700 favorite against Horn who is at +450. As we said, the unknown factor and home crowd are a big plus for Jeff Horn. Sometimes the biggest upsets happen when you least expect them. Horn may not be a world beater but given this opportunity of a lifetime, you’ll expect him to bring his A-game.

Beating Pacquiao is easier said than done though. Despite his advanced age, Manny Pacquiao looked in tremendous shape against Jessie Vargas. He was even the faster and quicker fighter than the two. Given Manny Pacquiao’s hand speed, footwork and ring IQ, it’s going to be an uphill battle for Jeff Horn. The Aussie is sometimes lazy with his footwork and against Pacquiao, that’s a recipe for disaster. Manny Pacquiao is going to run circles around Jeff Horn. He’s going to pound him with his famous four or five punch combos. It’s going to be  dangerous fight, yes. Jeff Horn is a live opponent. But we think Pacquiao is eons better in skill and speed. We are picking Manny Pacquiao to win by unanimous decision after a little scare from Jeff Horn.

Floyd Mayweather Jr. vs. Conor McGregor Odds and Prediction

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The fight that has intrigued the world is finally on.

After more than two years of teasing, boxing’s undefeated pound for pound king Floyd Mayweather Jr. and MMA’s concurrent UFC two-division champion Conor McGregor will face each other on August 26th, 2017 in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Both Mayweather and McGregor made the announcement via social media. Showtime Sports, who will air the event, also officially announced the fight on Wednesday:

Impossible Now Done

Mayweather vs. McGregor looked like a dream fight when McGregor first told Conan O’Brien in 2015 that he would fight Mayweather if the opportunity was presented to him. The Irishman has never boxed, professionally or as an amateur, although he is considered one of the best strikers in the sport of MMA.

Mayweather himself was already retired and had not fought since beating Andre Berto in September of 2015 in what he called was the final bout of his storied boxing career. However, Mayweather had already retired before and has always said that he would return to the ring for a hundred million dollars. With that small opening, both camps tried to make a deal.

There have been several times in the last two years that the fight was reported to be close to being done. But it was never closer to reality than when Mayweather booked the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas for August 26th. Although it was subsequently reported that Mayweather cancelled the reservation, the fight itself was officially announced this Wednesday. What fight fans once thought was impossible is now done.

A Mismatch?

UFC President Dana White also revealed on Wednesday that Mayweather vs. McGregor will be held at the T-Mobile Arena (although there has been no official announcement on the venue) and that the bout will be fought at the boxing junior middleweight limit of 154 pounds. The pair would also use 10-ounce gloves and while White didn’t say it, it’s likely that it will be fought under pure boxing rules. McGregor has always maintained his willingness to fight Mayweather under boxing rules, although that may not be a good idea.

Put the pair in an MMA octagon with four inch gloves and McGregor will have the advantage. The Notorious has a powerful left hand that can knock anybody out, Mayweather included. But the pair will be fighting in a boxing ring where Mayweather has eluded the great boxer likes of Pacquiao, Cotto and Canelo. With that kind of real estate to work his bicycle, McGregor may find it difficult to find his target. Even Max Kellerman thinks that McGregor may not land a punch on Mayweather. That may sound like an exaggeration, but Kellerman may have at the very least meant this is a clear mismatch.

Odds and Prediction

Mayweather is a -1100 favorite to defeat McGregor, who is a sharp underdog at +700. The odds are expected to move once the Irish money starts coming in. But in reality, this line reflects the mismatch we could be seeing. Mayweather was one of boxing’s best defensive genius. He was a very smart fighter who employed the hit and run tactic like no other. If the fastest of opponents in Pacquiao and the hardest hitting in Cotto could not lay their hands on him, what chance does McGregor have?

Conor McGregor may be here primarily for the money. He’s set to make more for this single bout than what he’ll earn in his entire MMA career. But you can’t count him out because he does have punching power and speed. If his left hand connects, it’s going to be a different story. The problem is, well, if it doesn’t connect. Without his leg kicks setting up his left hand, it’s going to be a long night for Conor McGregor. Mayweather is going to dance his way to $100M. Mayweather wins this easily. No knockdowns, no dramatics. It’s just going to be a boxing lesson from the best boxer ever. Floyd Mayweather Jr. by a very very unanimous decision.

UFC Fight Night 111: Can Holly Holm Snap Out of Her Losing Streak?

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Holly Holm hopes to end a three-fight losing streak as she faces the tough Bethe Correia in the five round main event of UFC Fight Night 111 on June 17th, 2017 at the Singapore Indoor Stadium in Kallang, Singapore.

Break The Streak

A former 8-time world boxing champion, Holly Holm was on top of the MMA world in 2015 after becoming the first fighter to defeat Ronda Rousey at UFC 193 in Australia. Holm’s second round stoppage of Rousey won her the UFC women’s bantamweight title and opened up a lot of opportunities for her.

But instead of waiting for a Ronda Rousey rematch, Holm decided to fight Miesha Tate at UFC 196 in March of 2016. That turned out to be tragic, as Tate bucked the odds to submit Holm and take the title from her. Things turned for the worse as Holm lost her next bout to Valentina Shevchenko in July of 2016. She also lost to Germaine de Randamie in the first ever women’s featherweight title bout last February. With three straight losses standing in front of her, Holm looks to break the streak and get back on track.

Not The Same

Bethe Correia herself will be trying to get back on the winning track. After nine consecutive victories, she suffered her first defeat at the hands of Ronda Rousey. Since that loss, Correia has been just 1-1-1 in her last three bouts. She figured in a majority draw against Marion Reneau in her most recent bout last March. When in good form, Correia is an aggressive striker who has good combinations and excellent counter punching skills. The problem with her is that she’s never been the same since losing to Rousey, with just one win in three outings.

Same Fighting Style

Holm is the odds on favorite at -500, while Correia is the underdog at +400. But don’t let the lines deceive you. This is going to be a dogfight because both fighters have the same style. They both like to strike and employ leg kicks. Likewise, both are struggling to pick up victories in recent fights.

This may go down to who has more mental fortitude between the two. Holm and Correia look like they are shells of themselves at the moment. The big plus money on Correia is tempting but Holm does have a five inch reach advantage and may have more punching power.

With those advantages, we’re going with Holly Holm in this fight. Holly Holm is going to snap out of her losing streak with a unanimous decision win over Bethe Correia.

Guillermo Rigondeaux vs. Moises Flores Odds and Prediction

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Guillermo Rigondeaux takes on Mexican Moises Flores in a 12-round super bantamweight title bout which is part of the undercard of Ward-Kovalev 2 on June 17th, 2017 at the Mandalay Bay Events Center in Las Vegas, Nevada.

This fight features two unbeaten fighters with years of ring experience and world title bouts. Rigondeaux and Flores will dispute the WBA (Super), Lineal and IBO super bantamweight titles.

Two Unbeaten Fighters

Rigondeaux enters the fight with an unblemished 17-0 record with 11 KOs . The Jackal is a 5-4 southpaw who has tremendous defensive skills and who controls the ring very well. Although Rigo is now 36 years old, he has not shown any signs of slowing down. He is coming off a second round stoppage win over Jazza Dickens last July. This will be Rigondeaux’s 10th defense of the super bantamweight titles which he won from Rico Ramos in 2012.

Flores is likewise an unbeaten fighter with a record of 25-0 with 17 KOs. Like Rigondeaux, he is coming off a long layoff as his last fight was a June 2016 unanimous decision win over Paulus Ambunda. He is a free swinger who likes to let his hands fly from start to finish. He has knocked out seven of his last 11 opponents. The 30-year old Flores has a 5 inch height and 1 inch reach advantage over Rigondeaux. Even if he is the underdog here, don’t expect Flores to be gun-shy on fight night.

An Offensive Fight

Rigondeaux is a -800 favorite against Flores who is currently pegged at +500. That looks like a mismatch but this is one heck of an undercard fight. It’s going to be an offensive fight with Flores’ aggressive style and Rigondeaux’s power. No disrespect but Guillermo Rigondeaux is hands down the best super bantamweight in the business.

Call him boring, but it’s almost impossible to bet against him given his experience and skills. He may not be getting any younger but he is still the man to beat. Both Rigo’s offense and defense are elite and he would make Flores miss a lot. When the Mexican lunges forward, he will be open to Rigondeaux’s beautiful counters.

It’s going to be hard for Moises Flores to find the target and he’s going to get countered all night long once he gets frustrated. It’s going to be another boxing clinic for the Jackal. We’re picking Rigondeaux to win by a wide points margin or late stoppage.

UFC Fight Night 110: Derrick Lewis vs. Mark Hunt Odds and Prediction

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Two of the UFC’s heaviest hitters square off in the main event of UFC Fight Night 110 on June 11th, 2017 at the Spark Arena in Auckland, New Zealand.

On A Winning Streak

Derrick Lewis has won his last six fights, five of them by knockout. The Black Beast is coming off a knockout of Travis Browne in Halifax, Nova Scotia last February 19th. The surging Lewis owns victories over Gabriel Gonzaga and Roy Nelson during his winning streak, as well. Lewis is primarily a striker with some boxing background. He only averages 0.72 takedowns per 15 minutes on a 33% accuracy, while 14 of his last 15 wins have been by knockout. Lewis averages 3.72 significant strikes landed per minute and has a 79-inch reach which should be crucial in this matchup.

One Punch KO Power

Mark Hunt, meanwhile, is coming off a knockout loss to Alistair Overeem at UFC 209. The Super Samoan has lost 4 of his last 6 bouts, although one of those losses (to Brock Lesnar) has been overturned to a no-decision. Hunt averages 3.02 significant strikes per minute on a 43.9% accuracy. But with him, it’s not the numbers that matter. Hunt is the king of the walk-off one punch knockout so any fight with him in it can end anytime regardless of statistics. Like Lewis, he doesn’t fancy takedowns, averaging only 0.62 takedowns per 15 minutes. Hunt is already 43 years old and has been hit or miss lately. But with the power he packs, he needs only one big punch to win against anybody.

Odds And Prediction

Anytime you have two equally powerful monsters, it’s got to be an even fight and his one’s understandably as close that as it can be. Lewis is a -125 favorite, while Hunt is even money as a +100 underdog. Fair enough. This should be an old school bar brawl where these two fighters will stand in front of each other at the center of the Octagon, trading bombs until one of them falls asleep on the canvas.

We know Mark Hunt will be the crowd favorite with this fight being in New Zealand. We believe he may also possess the harder punch, hence he is the more dangerous fighter between the two. But we’ve seen how these two have fared in recent fights. Lewis not only has a seven inch reach advantage, he has also shown better form as of late. This fight isn’t going the distance.  Derrick Lewis is going to knock out Mark Hunt.

Ward vs. Kovalev 2: Why Andre Ward is Going to Repeat Over the Krusher

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Andre Ward and Sergey Kovalev run back their 2016 thriller on June 17th, 2017 at the Mandalay Bay in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Controversial Win

It can be recalled that Ward edged Kovalev during their first fight last November 19th, 2016. Despite suffering a knockdown in round 2, Ward gained the nod of all three judges who scored the bout 114-113 unanimously. Controversy erupted as many of the media scores had Kovalev winning.

The first bout was a tale of two stories. Kovalev dominated the first part of the fight, using the 2nd round knockdown to push Ward backwards. But as the longer the fight went, Ward was able to adjust. He began to outpoint Kovalev in the later stages of the contest. Punch stats had Kovalev outpointing Ward but the latter landed more punches in the second half of the fight.

Super Fight

These are the kind of fights that boxing fans deserve to see. Kovalev and Ward were both unbeaten going into their first encounter. Ward was the former Olympic champion and professional boxing Super Middleweight king who moved up in weight to challenge the unified Light Heavyweight champion of the world.

Kovalev was the Krusher who had been knocking out one opponent after another in an unprecedented rise to the top of the division. Ward meanwhile was a ring general and tactician who used his slick boxing skills to beat the best opponents he faced. When they collided, it was a super fight of different styles. As we said, it came down to the judges’ scorecards and only one point separated them.

Pick ‘Em Again

The odds are almost even here. Ward is a -163 favorite against the +130 Kovalev. So we’re getting another pick’em fight from the two best fighters in the division. It’s really hard to pick a winner here because as we saw in the first fight, these are two brilliant fighters who have different styles. Kovalev and Ward were able to do what they wanted to and it all came down to what the judges preferred more.

But to choose between the two, you cannot go against Andre Ward. Ward is the better boxer and more technically sound fighter. As we saw in the first bout, he was able to make adjustments. Kovalev got the early knockdown but he wasn’t able to adjust to Ward’s reply. Having said that, when you have Kovalev in a fight, he can end it anytime because he has the power that Ward doesn’t. The Krusher has shown that he can hurt Ward. Ward showed he can outsmart Kovalev. So in another chess match, we’re going with Andre Ward in another close (and controversial to Kovalev) decision win.

Adonis Stevenson vs. Andrzej Fonfara Odds and Prediction

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World Light heavyweight champion Adonis Stevenson will defend his WBC and Lineal titles against Andrzej Fonfara in a rematch of their 2014 bout. The two will meet again on June 3rd, 2017 at the Bell Centre in Montreal, Quebec, Canada.

In their first bout, Stevenson came out of the gates firing. He dominated the first seven rounds and dropped Fonfara in rounds three and five. But just when we thought it would be a matter of time before Adonis Superman got another KO, Fonfara fought his way back and had Stevenson in trouble after knocking him down in the 9th round. The champion was able to hang on though and win by unanimous decision.

Road to the Rematch

After the defeat, Fonfara won three fights in a row including high profile wins over Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. and Nathan Cleverly. But then Fonfara suffered a major setback after getting knocked out by the unheralded Joe Smith in June of 2016. He’s rebounded from that defeat with a KO win over Chad Dawson last March.

Stevenson, meanwhile, successfully defended his belts four more times after fighting Fonfara. He knocked out Dmitry Sukhotsky, Tom Karpency and Thomas Williams Jr. and decisioned Saiko Bika. Superman has not lost a bout since getting knocked out by Darnell Boone in his only professional defeat in 2010. He is nearing 40 years old but remains a force to be reckoned with because of his powerful left hand.

Odds and Prediction

Stevenson is a -2000 favorite over the +800 Fonfara. But these are just numbers. Fonfara does have size advantage and is the much younger and athletic fighter between the two. Although Stevenson beat Fonfara by unanimous decision three years ago, the latter was able to land on Superman and both fighters were dropped in that bout. So if you’re looking for an upset, there is value with the big plus money.

However, if you compare the skill-set of both fighters, Stevenson is the more complete boxer. He also packs more power in his fists, has better head movement and more importantly, has shown that he can take a punch better than Fonfara. Fonfara has been knocked out twice in his career and we saw that in his recent fight against Joe Smith where he was a -2300 favorite. Stevenson will also be fighting in front of a home crowd that is surely going to be a big factor should Fonfara survive Superman’s juggernaut. Either way, we’re picking Adonis Stevenson to beat Andrzej Fonfara here.

UFC 212 Betting: Why Claudia Gadelha Will Beat Karolina Kowalkiewicz

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A women’s strawweight matchup between top contenders Claudia Gadelha and Karolina Kowalkiewicz has been added to the UFC 212 PPV event which will be held at the HSBC Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil on June 3rd, 2017.

Another Title Shot For Winner

Gadelha and Kowalkiewicz are the 2nd and 3rd ranked fighters in the UFC women’s strawweight division. The two have also already faced and lost to current champion Joanna Jedrzejczyk in the past and the victor here could very well be on her way to a second crack at the world title.

Gadelha has lost twice in her career but both losses came at the hands of Jedrzejczyk and the first one, which was a non-title fight, came via close split decision. She’s 2-2 in her last four bouts but won her most recent outing via decision over Cortney Casey at UFC Fight Night 100 last November of 2016.

Kowalkiewicz meanwhile opened her UFC career with a string of three victories that included a split decision win over Rose Namajunas at UFC 201. That bout was a title eliminator and it earned her a shot at Jedrzejczyk at the monumental UFC 205 last November. Kowalkiewicz lost to her compatriot via clear unanimous decision.

Odds and Prediction

Gadelha is the favorite here at -300 while Kowalkiewicz is a +240 underdog.  The key here will be takedowns as Gadelha is a takedown machine with an average of 4.59 takedowns per fifteen minutes at an accuracy of 57.7%. Kowalkiewicz hasn’t shown any signs of a ground game in the UFC and to win this fight, she must keep it on her feet where she has the advantage.

The Polish fighter is averaging 4.56 significant strikes landed per minute as compared to Gadelha’s average of 3.59. Kowalkiewicz is a smart fighter who knows how to adjust and take what her opponent gives her. She doesn’t force the issue but is pretty effective doing it. She’s won 8 of her 11 bouts by decision, so she’s a tough girl.

Claudia Gadelha just doesn’t seem to be a good matchup for Karolina Kowalkiewicz. While Kowalkiewicz hasn’t shown any ground game, she’s been taken down thrice in her last two fights. Against Gadelha, she won’t be comfortable on the canvass. So unless she keeps the fight on her feet for fifteen minutes, I don’t see how she can topple Gadelha who hasn’t lost in Brazil.

It’s not going to be a walk in the park but we’re picking Claudia Gadelha to beat Karolina KowalKiewicz.

Misha Cirkunov vs. Volkan Oezdemir Odds and Prediction

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Misha Cirkunov and Volkan Oezdemir battle in the co-main event of UFC Fight Night Stockholm on May 28th, 2017 at the Ericsson Globe Arena in  Sweden. The event will be headlined by Sweeden’s own Alexander ‘Swedish Mauler’ Gustafsson and the hard-hitting Glover Teixeira.

Back in Business

After contract negotiations earlier in the year appeared to go sour, the UFC and Misha Cirkunov finally came to terms on a new deal and the Latvian contender is back in business. Cirkunov has been on a roll, winning eight fights in a row, including his first four bouts under the UFC banner. All of those eight victories have been by stoppage, hence making him one of the more dangerous new contenders at 205 pounds. Cirkunov is now ranked #7 in the UFC Light Heavyweight division and a win over the 5th ranked Oezdemir will put him even higher on the ranking ladder.

Swiss Oezdemir took a fight against Ovince St. Preux on short notice at UFC Fight Night 104 and surprised many by outworking OSP and hacking out a win over the former interim title contender. The win over St. Preux was his promotional debut and he’s won three in a row since suffering his first loss at Bellator 115 three years ago. He looks to solidify his hold of a Top 5 ranking and increase his chances of earning a title fight.

Odds and Prediction

Cirkunov is the favorite here at -350 while Oezdemir is at +290. Oezdemir lands an impressive 5.47 strikes per minute, which is more than Cirkunov’s 3.97. However, the real striking story is on the other side of the stats, Cirkunov absorbs only 2.28 strikes per minute while Oezdemir gets hit with 5.07 striker per minute. That’s a significant difference especially since Oezdemir is fighting a powerful striker who has a two inch reach advantage in Cirkunov.

The grappling side is one-sided as Cirkunov is a submission artist at heart. Five of his last seven bouts have ended in a submission and despite his punching power, he likes to take his opponents to the ground and tap them out. It’s also interesting to note that Oezdemir’s only defeat in 2014 came by submission. It could turn out to be a good fight but the better man will win. We’re picking Cirkunov to win this fight whichever way.