All posts by Chris Blain

Boxing Ring

Kell Brook vs. Errol Spence Odds and Prediction

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Kell Brook returns to welterweight to defend his IBF title against mandatory challenger Errol Spence of the United States.  The bout will be held on May 27th, 2017 at Bramall Lane in Sheffield, England, which is Brook’s hometown.

Brook’s Big Balls

Brook is coming off a punishing defeat at the hands of unified middleweight champion Gennady Golovkin last September 10th, 2016. As if Golovkin wasn’t a challenge big enough for him, Brook fights at welterweight to defend his IBF belt against the most dangerous non-champion out there.

Errol Spence is undefeated in 21 bouts with 18 KOs. The former US 2012 Olympian has been on a tear lately, stopping Chris Van Heerden, Alejandro Barrera, Chris Algieri and Leonard Bundu in succession. He is the IBF’s #1 contender and is looking to win his first ever world title. Brook is Spence’s toughest opponent to date while Brook is being praised for his willingness to fight a tough foe in Spence immediately after his loss to Triple G.

Champ is Underdog

Interestingly, Spence is the odds on favorite here at -165 while the champion Brook is at +145. The lines are close, yes but the oddsmakers are giving the younger and less experienced fighter the edge over a battle tested champion. But as his nickname is, Errol Spence is The Truth.

The southpaw Spence has a three inch reach advantage over Brook and that could play an important factor in this fight. Being the better overall pure boxer between the two, the edge in length will enable Spence to set up his punches with his jabs. Spence has power in both hands and has stopped his last eight opponents, but he’s not your usual power puncher who rushes for the KO and swings wildly on his opponent. He’s got a high boxing IQ and a polished defense.

Length and Power Decides

Brook has the advantage because he will be fighting in front of his home crowd and he will be very motivated to bounce back from his loss to Gennady Golovkin. Like Spence, he has a high boxing IQ and can fight on the inside and outside. He also has more experience than the American, but as we said earlier, Spence has the length and power advantages over him. Having said that, it’s hard to pick against Spence right now. He’s on an impressive winning roll and has matured a lot in recent years.

We’re picking Errol Spence to win by decision or late stoppage.

Alexander Gustafsson in the UFC Octagon Ring

UFC Fight Night 109: Alexander Gustafsson vs. Glover Teixeira Odds and Prediction

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Alexander Gustafsson and Glover Teixeira headline the UFC’s later foray in Sweden. The two former Light Heavyweight title contenders will square off in a five round bout at the Ericsson Globe in Stockholm, Sweden on May 28th, 2017.

One More Crack At The Title?

Both Fighters are looking for one more crack at the world title. Gustafsson got two chances, one against Jon Jones in 2013 and another to Daniel Cormier in 2015. He lost both bouts by close decision. In fact, some believe he beat Jon Jones at UFC 165. Those heartbreaks have not prevented the Swedish Mauler from working his way back to the top one more time. Gustafsson has split his last six bouts at 3-3, with his losses coming to Jones, Cormier and Anthony Johnson. Gus is coming off an impressive unanimous decision win over Jan Blachowicz at UFC Fight Night 93.

Glover Teixeira also challenged Jon Jones for the world title at UFC 172 in 2014. Jones beat him by clear and wide unanimous decision. Since then, Teixeira has managed to return to the top of the rankings with stoppage wins over Ovince St. Preux, Patrick Cummins and Rashad Evans. However, he is coming off a 13-second knockout loss to Anthony ‘Rumble” Johnson at UFC 202.

Odds and Prediction

This one’s as close as it gets. Gustafsson is favored at -175 While Teixeira is the slight underdog at +150.

The home court advantage almost always is a factor. In this case, Gustafsson loves to fight in his hometown. In fact, the Swedish Mauler is 5-1 when fighting in Stockholm although it’s worth noting that his last fight there was a first round KO loss to Rumble Johnson. However, he isn’t fighting Rumble Johnson here.

Glover Teixeira may possess the same power as Anthony Johnson but he is no Rumble. Against a much younger, more athletic and equally powerful opponent like Gustafsson, Teixeira can be overwhelmed. Remember that in his last bout, Rumble Johnson ( yes he too ) rushed him and knocked him out in 13 seconds. Turn the tables now: Gus is no Rumble Johnson either. But the Swede is just as aggressive and relentless. We’re just not confident of Teixeira once he gets swarmed.

It’s a pick‘em fight but we’re going with the younger and the rangier Alexander Gustafsson to win a striking battle here.

Terence Crawford vs. Felix Diaz Odds and Prediction

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Terence Crawford defends his WBC, WBO, Ring and Lineal junior welterweight titles against challenger and former Olympic Gold medalist Felix Diaz on May 20th, 2017 at the Mecca of Sports, Madison Square Garden.

Fighting on A Big Stage

Crawford is considered as one of the top pound for pound fighters in the world. His journey to becoming one of boxing’s biggest stars has been well-documented. But while Crawford’s name has risen from the ranks, he has never really fought on a big stage. Sure, he packed Omaha’s Century Link Center  each time he fought and he defeated Viktor Postol at the MGM Grand Garden Arena, but none of his previous wins have been fought in a venue as big as the Madison Square Garden. Now Crawford looks to extend his unbeaten record to 31 against a challenger not many people are familiar with.

2008 Olympic Gold medalist Felix Diaz is on the brink of superstardom. He is coming off a TKO win over Levi Morales last December. Prior to that, Diaz notched his biggest career win, upsetting the highly regarded Sammy Vasquez by unanimous decision. In search of his first professional world title, he faces an overwhelming favorite.

Are The Lines Exaggerated?

Crawford is currently a -1700 favorite and Diaz comes in as the obvious under dog at +1100. Don’t let those numbers fool you. The lines are exaggerated because of the name ‘Crawford’ and because the casuals do not know who Felix Diaz is.

Diaz is a former Olympic Gold medalist who has beaten a handful of good fighters in the pros without any trouble. Although he is shorter, Diaz has the athleticism to give Crawford a run for his money or even stage an upset. His high work rate and aggressor attitude could cause some problems for Terence Crawford. If you have a few extra dollars, it wouldn’t be a terrible idea to place a small bet on Diaz.

This Bud’s For You

However, if we’re picking a winner here, we’re going with Bud Crawford. While Diaz may cause him some problem, the Dominican Republic native doesn’t pack a big punch so it’s likely the fight is going the distance. That’s going to be a problem against Crawford, who is one of the best boxers and ring tacticians in the game today. Crawford is bigger, smarter and has a big edge in punching power. If Diaz throws wild shots at Crawford, it might be a quick fight. In all likelihood, this will be a decision win for Crawford. A knockout though isn’t out of the picture. We’re picking Terence Crawford to win on points.

Gary Russell vs. Oscar Escandon Fight Odds and Prediction

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Gary Russell Jr. makes the second defense of his WBC Featherweight title against interim titlist Oscar Escandon on May 20th, 2017 at the MGM National Harbor in Oxon Hill, Maryland.

Another Long Layoff

Russell will be making his return from another long layoff. He won the belt by beating Jhonny Gonzalez in March of 2015 but it took another 13 months before he stopped Patrick Hyland in two rounds. Now, it’s been another 13 months since the Hyland bout and Russell will be facing the man who was given the interim title during Russell’s hiatus.

Big Opportunity

For Oscar Escandon, this won’t be just an opportunity to legitimize his title but it will be a chance to beat a big name on a big stage. Escandon became the interim champion with a 7th round KO win over Robinson Castellanos. The fight with Russell was scheduled for March 11th but Escandon suffered a back injury while training, hence it was moved to May 20th. Escandon says he is now 100% healthy and he is ready to shock Russell the way Maidana did Adrien Broner.

The Odds

Russell is a huge favorite here at -3500 while Escandon is at +1750. But don’t let the line deceive you. Escandon is a better fighter than what it says and he is definitely not a pushover. He may not be on Russell’s level but he has never lost a fight decisively in his boxing career. His two defeats were by close split decisions. Escandon may be very shot at just 5-1 but don’t underestimate him because of that. He works the body well and he also packs a good looking punch. He has very sound defense and he often throws off his opponents because of his size ( or the lack thereof ).

The Prediction

As good as his credentials are, however, Gary Russell is one of the elite boxers of today. He is known for his speed and combinations but has been on a ‘power trip’ as of late. Russell has won his last two fights by KO and he’s stopped six of his last nine opponents. Russell is coming off a win over Patrick Hyland and has been on a roll since suffering his only loss to Vasyl Lomachenko. Having said that, Escandon will have his hands full and will need to deliver a performance of a lifetime to walk away with the title.

It’s hard to pick against Gary Russell Jr. here, so we’re predicting a decisive win for Russell. It may or may not be a KO but it will definitely make a statement to the other featherweight champions. That being said, the odds for an Escandon win are as playable as they get, so a flier bet on the upset could be worth a try.

UFC 211 Betting: Eddie Alvarez vs. Dustin Poirier Odds and Prediction

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Eddie Alvarez fights for the first time since losing his UFC lightweight title to Conor McGregor at UFC 205 last November. The Underground king will face former featherweight contender Dustin Poirier at UFC 211 on May 13th, 2017 at the American Airlines Arena in Dallas, Texas, USA.

Two Promotion Champ

Alvarez is the only fighter to win a world title in two different promotions. Prior to winning the UFC lightweight title against Rafael Dos Anjos in July of 2016, Alvarez was the staple lightweight in Bellator and was a two-time lightweight champion there. Since coming over to the UFC, Alvarez has fought one world class fighter after another: Cowboy Donald Cerrone, Gilbert Melendez, Anthony Pettis, Rafael Dos Anjos and Conor McGregor.

Chasing A Title

Dustin Poirier has been chasing a world title for a long time now. The Diamond is 5-1 since returning to lightweight and losing to McGregor. He just beat Jim Miller last February and is now making a quick return fight against a former champion. Poirier believes that he will be one fight away from that much coveted title shot if he beats Eddie Alvarez at UFC 211.

The Odds

Eddie Alvarez is the slight favorite here at -160 while Dustin Poirier is at +120. Both men are excellent strikers who possess knockout power. Both can also hold their own in grappling and wrestling so this fight could go anywhere.

Both men stand at 5-9 but Dustin Poirier has the longer reach at 72’ . He is also four years Alvarez’s junior and averages 1.54 more strikes per minute landed than the former champion. Poirier’s 49% striking accuracy is also 7% better than Eddie Alvarez’s number.

However, if we go down to the grappling statistics, Eddie Alvarez is more aggressive with his take downs. The Underground King averages 3.58 take downs per 15 minutes as compared to the Diamond’s 1.79. That’s almost a two take down differential and those two take downs would be a huge difference maker in a fight that is expected to be this close.

The Prediction

One can certainly make case for either fighter to win this fight but we’re going with Eddie Alvarez because of his aggressive take downs and because he has fought better competition. Sure, there is a possibility that Dustin Poirier is going to get the knockout here but unless Eddie Alvarez gets clipped and gets knocked out by Poirier, the former Lightweight king  has got this. We’re picking Eddie Alvarez  to win by early KO or unanimous decision.

UFC 211 Odds and Preview: Frankie Edgar vs. Yair Rodriguez

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Former UFC lightweight champion Frankie Edgar faces the up and coming Yair Rodriguez in a featherweight contest at UFC 211 at the American Airlines Arena in Dallas on May 13th.

Just The Gatekeeper?

Frankie Edgar has seen it all and has been there in the sport. After losing his lightweight title to Benson Henderson, losing to Bendo in the rematch and losing to Jose Aldo in his first bout at featherweight, Edgar has won six of seven bouts in impressive fashion. The only loss for Edgar during this period was his UFC 200 defeat to Jose Aldo (again) in his most recent bout. After losing his last three title fights, many wonder if Frankie is simply the gatekeeper now. The Answer hopes to prove them wrong with a win over the fast rising Yair Rodriguez.

Rising Star

Yair Rodriguez is the rising star at featherweight. After winning the first season of TUF Latin America, Rodriguez has remained perfect in his UFC career. El Pantera opened with victories over Charles Rosa, Dan Hooker and Andre Fili. He then headlined his first event last August where he beat Alex Caceres via split decision. Rodriguez’s last three wins have been fight of the night bonus winners. He is looking for the signature victory that will push him to the upper echelon in his weight class. He will have that opportunity against the battle tested Frankie Edgar.

Odds And Prediction

Frankie Edgar is a -175 favorite against Yair Rodriguez, who is at +150 right now. No doubt Frankie has the edge in experience but Yair Rodriguez has the tools to beat Frankie Edgar. First, Edgar isn’t a known knockout artists so this opens up the opportunity for Rodriguez to take his chances with his unorthodox striking. El Pantera’s superb striking skills should put Frankie Edgar on his toes and make him hesitant to shoot for takedowns.

Should Edgar be successful in taking down Rodriguez, Yair has shown much improved ground game which shouldn’t keep him on the ground for too long for Frankie to dominate. Rodriguez also has freak athleticism which can free him in the clinch. In short, we think Rodriguez is going to turn this into a striking battle and he has a three inch reach advantage. For sure Yair Rodriguez is a live underdog. We’re picking him to beat Frankie Edgar in a competitive fight.

Saul "Canelo" Alvarez

An All Mexican Showdown: Canelo Alvarez vs. Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. Odds and Preview

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Cinco De Mayo weekend heats up as the two most popular Mexican fighters today square off in a catchweight bout on May 6th, 2017 at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.

The Real Deal

Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez is Golden Boy’s flagship fighter. He is also the best fighter from Mexico, regardless of weight class. Alvarez was looking at a mega buck showdown with Gennady Golovkin  but with negotiations failing, he settled for this all-Mexican showdown against the son of the legend.

Canelo hasn’t lost since getting schooled by Floyd Mayweather Jr. in 2013. Alvarez has won six in a row since losing to Money,  including four by stoppage. In his most recent bout, Alvarez returned to the title picture by stopping Liam Smith last September.

Son of the Legend

Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. has always been overshadowed by his great father and namesake. The former WBC middleweight champion has also been hounded by personal problems all throughout his career.  Still, he has found his way to yet another big fight. Junior hopes to erase all doubts about show serious he is with his boxing career.

The Odds

Canelo is a -700 favorite against Chavez Jr., who is a +450 underdog as of this writing. Alvarez has knockout power and does a good job working the body. Defensively, Canelo is sharp and he has a proven chin given that he has faced some of the biggest names in the sport. The only concern with Alvarez is that he sometimes has struggle controlling the ring, thus allowing quick and athletic opponents to move from harm’s way. Knowing his opponent though, this shouldn’t be a problem on fight night.

Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. only knows one way to fight and that’s moving forward. He likes to use a lot of activity and would rather punch his way to winning rounds rather than wait to land his haymaker. Like Alvarez, Junior likes to work his opponent’s body. He also has knockout power if he can land his right hand. The problem with Junior here, as is with his previous fights,  will be the weight.

Weight is a Factor

The bout is contracted for 164.5 pounds. It will be the highest weight at which Canelo will have fought in. For Chavez though, it will be the lightest weight since he fought Sergio Martinez for the world middleweight title in 2012. Since then, Chavez has struggled with his weight. In his most recent bout, Chavez weighed in at 169 against Dominik Britsch. It will be interesting how he carries the lighter weight against Canelo.

Weight aside, Canelo Alvarez is the superior fighter here. Alvarez is simply the better skilled and more polished boxer. He also has the better experience against top level competition. We’re not discounting the possibility of a Chavez upset, by KO or otherwise, but it’s hard to see him outbox and outsmart Canelo Alvarez. Love or hate Saul Alvarez, he is Mexico’s best boxer. And we’ll see that on Cinco de Mayo weekend. We’re picking Alvarez to win by late KO or points.

Luke Campbell vs. Darleys Perez Odds and Prediction

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Britain’s Golden Boy Luke Campbell will fight in the Joshua-Klitschko undercard in a bout that has been declared as a Lightweight title eliminator. The 2012 Olympic Gold medalist will fight former world champion Darleys Perez for the right to face WBA Lightweight champion Jorge Linares.

British Golden Boy

Campbell is Britain’s version of the Golden Boy after capturing gold in both the 2008 European Championships and 2012 Olympics. In winning the latter, Campbell became the first bantamweight from England to win the Olympic Bantamweight gold since 1908. In 2013, he was appointed MBE and turned pro later that year.

As a prize fighter, Campbell has compiled an impressive 16-1 with 13 KOS record. His only blot was a close and controversial split decision loss to Frenchman Yvan Mendy. Campbell has won 10 of his last 11 bouts and he is coming off a 2nd round TKO win over Jairo Lopez last February. Campbell has recorded nine stoppages in his last 10 victories.

His opponent is a man who held the WBA belt Linares now owns. Darleys Perez defended that title three times before losing it to Anthony Crolla. Crolla meanwhile lost the belt to Linares. Perez has won 10 of his last 14 bouts and is coming off a November draw with Maurice Hooker. Six of his last eight victories have been by decision.

The Prediction

Campbell is a solid -500 over Perez who is currently at +350. However, this is no walk in the park for the Briton. Perez is a former world champion who has vast fighting experience. The Columbian is tough,quick and an effective counter puncher. Over the years, Perez has proven that he can absorb punishment and still be in the fight. He’s not going to be intimidated by Campbell and won’t be discouraged by the hometown crowd at Wembley. That’s what Luke Campbell has to be wary about here. He can’t be discouraged if he doesn’t put away Perez early.

Having said that, though, Campbell has to feel confident knowing that Perez got knocked out by Anthony Crolla in his most recent loss because Crolla isn’t known for his punching power. Luke Campbell has tremendous punching power and packs the bigger punches than both Crolla and Perez. He is the far more skilled and polished boxer in this match-up so he can also win this bout on the judges’ scorecards. At the end of the day, it’s going to be a victory for Luke Campbell. Either way, it’s not going to be easy but he will come out of this fight the victor and a better fighter. And well prepared for a possible title shot against Jorge Linares.

We’re picking Luke Campbell to win this fight by late stoppage or unanimous decision.

Repeat or Revenge? Junior Dos Santos vs. Stipe Miocic Odds and Prediction

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UFC Heavyweight champion Stipe Miocic defends his belt for the second time against former champion Junior Dos Santos in the main event of UFC 211 on May 13th, 2017 at the American Airlines Arena in Dallas, Texas.

The bout will be a rematch of the headliner of UFC on Fox 13 in 2014 where Dos Santos beat Miocic via unanimous decision in a back and forth slugfest that earned Fight of The night Honors. That defeat was the last setback in Miocic’s career. He’s been on a tear ever since.

Breaking The Curse

Miocic earned worldwide recognition by breaking the Curse of Cleveland. He became Cleveland’s first major sport world champion in 52 years. Stipe earned that distinction by knocking out then champion Fabricio Werdum in the latter’s own backyard in Brazil at UFC 198. After that, Miocic successfully defended the UFC Heavyweight title with a first round knockout of Alistair Overeem at UFC 203. Miocic’s last five victories have been by knockout, with the last three all coming in the very first round.

Dos Santos, meanwhile, is coming off a solid victory over the surging Ben Rothwell at UFC Fight Night 86 in April of 2016. Two fights earlier, Dos Santos beat Miocic on points. Junior is famously known as the first fighter to beat Cain Velasquez, although he lost his next two bouts against Cardio Cain. His fight resume is a list of the who’s who of the heavyweight division, while Dos Santos is looking at one final crack at the world title.

The Odds and Prediction

Miocic vs. Dos Santos is a tough one to pick. The odds have installed Miocic a -175 favorite against Junior’s +150 but in the UFC’s heavyweight division, but it takes just one punch to change destiny.

Miocic is a striking machine who averages 5.03 significant strikes landed per minute at an accuracy of 50.4%. That’s dangerous, considering he packs tremendous power in both hands. Twelve of Miocic’s 16 victories have been by knockout, so his strategy won’t come as a surprise for Junior Dos Santos. He does have decent wrestling and grappling but it’s a known fact that his haymakers are his bread and butter.

Likewise, Dos Santos is an equally excellent striker. In fact, he’s been long considered to be the best boxer in the UFC’s heavyweight division. He averages 4.89 significant strikes landed per minute and does so with an accuracy of 48%. Dos Santos has 12 KOs in 18 victories with three of his last five wins by stoppage. Stylistically, this is hard to pick because these are the two top strikers at heavyweight. But given that Cigano is now 33, has gone 3-3 in his last six bouts and has suffered knockout losses in two of his last three losses, it’s fair to wonder if he’s in a good spot here. Not only has been Dos Santos hit and miss lately, he also hasn’t been too active with just one fight in each of the last three years.

Dos Santos is still one of the elite strikers in the business but he’s facing a raging bull in Miocic. It’s Stipe’s time now and while we may see another back and forth war, Miocic will likely end up getting his revenge against Dos Santos. We’re picking Stipe Miocic to successfully defend the UFC Heavyweight title for a second time this year.

UFC Fight Night 108: Artem Lobov vs. Cub Swanson Odds and Prediction

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Artem Lobov asked for Cub Swanson and he got the fight. Now Swanson wants to shut his mouth.

Teach Him Some Manners

Lobov began calling out Swanson after watching the UFC’s 4th ranked featherweight slug it out with Korean top prospect Doo Ho Choi at UFC 206 in one of 2016’s best and most exciting fights.  It didn’t take long for Swanson to notice the call out and the tough as nails fighter immediately agreed to face Lobov at the main event of UFC Fight Night 108 at the Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tennessee on April 22nd, 2017.

Fighting an unranked opponent doesn’t really makes sense for Cub Swanson and it is indeed a huge risk for him. But he said he’s got to teach Lobov some manners for calling him out on social media.

Better Fighter

Swanson averages 3.67 significant strikes per minutes as compared to Lobov’s 2.67. The American is also the more accurate striker at 46.9% versus 40.4%. On the ground, Swanson also has the better numbers at 1.3 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. Lobov averages just 0.40 takedowns over the same period. Having seen the numbers, Cub Swanson is definitely the better fighter between these two.

The concern with Swanson, though, is that he has been submitted five times in his career. But Lobov may not have the ground game to submit him as the SBG Ireland product only has two of thirteen wins by submission.

The Odds

Top UFC betting sites like Bovada have Cub Swanson as the favorite here at -600 odds and Lobov the underdog at +400.

Consistency has been a problem for Lobov as he has been hit or miss in recent years. He is coming off a November victory over Teruto Ishihara and an August win over Chris Avila but in the longer term, he’s just split his last 14 bouts. There is nothing really special about Lobov’s game. He isn’t a knockout artist or a submission specialist. 7 of his 13 wins are by decision. He’s always just smart enough to find ways to win fights on points. And yes, he hasn’t fought top level competition yet so he is untested.

Swanson’s resume meanwhile is a who’s who of the division. He may have lost several fights to big named fighters but the experience difference between him and Lobov is too much. Likewise, Swanson has won 8 of his last 10 bouts and has been one of the more consistent fighters in the division. He may be 33 years old but we didn’t saw any signs of that during his back and forth Fight of The Year candidate against top prospect Doo Ho Choi at UFC 206 which he won by the way.

Not only  is Swanson more experienced and consistent, he also has the advantage in power, striking and conditioning. Given all his edges, we’re picking Cub Swanson to win convincingly over Artem Lobov.