All posts by Chris Blain

UFC Fight Night 108: Al Iaquinta vs. Diego Sanchez Odds and Prediction

Sports News & Picks, , , , , , , , , ,

Al Iaquinta makes his long awaited octagon return against one of the UFC’s most grizzled veterans in Diego Sanchez at UFC Fight Night 108 at the Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tennessee on April 22nd.

Rage Stopped

Iaquinta was one of the UFC’s up and coming stars when he suddenly disappeared from the radar. Prior to that, the man known as ‘Raging’ won four straight bouts including three against highly touted foes in Ross Pearson, Joe Lauzon and Jorge Masvidal. But the rage stopped as injury and a contract dispute forced Iaquinta out of the octagon during the last two years.

Iaquinta’s MMA stock dropped with the layoff and he is now just #14 in the UFC’s crowded lightweight division. Needing to make up for lost time, Iaquinta prepares to fight for the first time in Tennessee and his opponent is will be one of the most recognizable faces in the promotion.

The Ultimate Fighter

While Raging Al was in the freezer, Diego Sanchez fought four times, going 2-2 during that period. In his most recent bout, Sanchez beat Marcin Held by unanimous decision at the TUF Latin America 3 finale last November.

Sanchez’s reputation has always preceded him. Since winning the inaugural season of the Ultimate Fighter, we’ve seen Sanchez in some of the most gruesome performances ever inside the UFC octagon. His toughness isn’t to be denied and his penchant to dive deep into wars is what makes him ever dangerous.

Experience vs Consistency

Diego has been hit and miss lately, though, splitting his last 14 outings. Although he’s coming off a victory over Marcin Held, he’s not won back to back fights since 2011. At 36, he is obviously past his prime and on the way down. But having a decorated veteran with plus money always makes an interesting bout to bet on and this one is no exception. Most UFC betting sites have Sanchez as a +285 underdog here, while the favored Iaquinta is at -350.

Sanchez has the experience advantage here and Iaquinta is coming off of a layoff. Diego’s takedowns are a threat and you can’t discount his submission skills. He’s going to take this deep in the trenches and hope that Iaquinta’s inexperience and ring rust will be exposed.

This is Iaquinta’s first bout in two years and that is another cause of concern. But ring rust aside, Iaquinta may be nearing his prime. He’s got pop in his strikes and has shown he can win an ugly grinder, too. Diego Sanchez is a tantalizing pick, really. But given Al Iaquinta’s consistency, we don’t think ring rust will matter here. We’re picking him to beat Sanchez here.

UFC on Fox 24: Ronaldo Souza vs. Robert Whittaker Odds and Prediction

Sports News & Picks, , , , , , , ,

Two of the UFC’s top welterweight collide in the under card of UFC on Fox 24 on April 15th, 2017 at the Sprint Center in Missouri.

3rd ranked Ronaldo ‘Jacare’ Souza takes on the red hot 6th ranked Robert Whittaker in a bout that could cement a title shot for Souza or push Whitaker amongst the middleweight elites.

Waiting For His Shot

Jacare has been waiting for his title shot for too long and despite the controversial loss to Yoel Romero, this is the man who is the most deserving to face Michael Bisping for the belt. But with GSP given that opportunity now, Souza has decided to keep himself busy. And he’s decided to do so by taking a fight against one of the more dangerous punchers in the division.

Robert Whitaker’s move to middleweight has paid off, so far. After going 3-3 in his last six welterweight bouts, the hard hitting Australian moved up in weight class in 2014. Since then, he’s won five fights in a row with three stoppages. All three stoppages have earned him post fight bonuses.  Whitaker is coming off a win over the equally powerful Derek Brunson but he’s definitely moving to a higher level fighting one of the best middleweights ever in Jacare Souza.

The Odds

Jacare is currently a -245 favorite against Whittaker who is at +185. You can make a good argument for either fighter because both are currently on a good run.

Although he’s already 37 years of age, Jacare Souza is a prime example of consistency. Since losing to Luke Rockhold in his UFC debut in 2011, Souza has gone 10-1 with his only defeat the controversial split decision loss to Yoel Romero at UFC 194. Souza is considered one of the best grapplers in the sport with 70% of his victories ( 17 out of 24 ) coming by submission.

Robert Whittaker has powered his way to five straight wins in the middleweight division. But even if he’s coming off an explosive first round TKO of Derek Brunson, he hasn’t stepped inside the octagon with a highly decorated Jiu Jitsu practitioner like Ronaldo Souza. Sure, Whitaker possesses tremendous punching power and high volume striker but Jacare has seen it all inside that Octagon.

The Prediction

The main concern here is that Souza is making a quick return fight because he just fought last February. But given his track record, that should not be a problem. Souza’s age may sound like a red flag too as he could as they say grow old overnight during this fight. Given his consistency though, that’s unlikely.

Souza’s grappling skills meanwhile could be a big problem for Whittaker. Look, Robert Whittaker has good grappling and can win an ugly fight on the ground. It’s just unlikely he can do it against a true middleweight elite who has multiple Jiu Jitsu and grappling world titles on his resume. Souza’s grappling is second to none. It should be the key here. We’re picking Ronaldo Souza to beat Robert Whittaker.

Andre Berto vs. Shawn Porter Odds And Preview

Sports News & Picks, , , , , , ,

Former world champions Andre Berto and Shawn Porter will meet in the main event of a Premier Boxing Champions card on April 22nd, 2017 at the Barclays Center in New York.

The bout will be the WBC’s title eliminator with the winner between the 5th ranked Porter and the 7th ranked Berto scheduled to face the new WBC champion Keith Thurman next.

Title Eliminator

Showtime Shawn Porter is just 2-2 in his last four bouts but his losses were to IBF welterweight champion Kell Brook and Thurman. Those bouts were close and went down the wire. Porter could have easily won both on another given time. Should Porter get past Berto, he may be staring at a rematch against Keith Thurman.

Like Porter, Berto’s last few bouts have been split 50-50. He’s won just half of his last eight bouts and has virtually lost to every big name that he’s faced. Berto is best remembered for being Floyd Mayweather Jr.’s retirement opponent. He has not won back to back fights since 2010. A win over Porter puts him on line to fight for the WBC belt he successfully defended five times during his peak.

Not The Same

Porter is a solid -420 favorite over Berto who is currently at +300.

Berto’s record is an impressive 31-4 with 24 KOS but he’s clearly not the same fighter he was in his prime. Ever since pulling out of the Shane Mosley bout in 2010 in the aftermath of the Haiti earthquakes, Andre Berto has not been the same ‘Beast’ inside the ring. From being undefeated in his first 27 bouts, Berto suddenly went 4-5 and although he is coming off a 4th round KO win over Victor Ortiz, it’s clear that Berto no longer has the same pop in his punches and has lost a step or two inside the ring.

The Prediction

Porter may be coming off a loss to Keith Thurman but that was a closely contested bout and Porter may have even gained more respect from it. He may not be the flashy boxer but his blue collar work ethic, high level boxing IQ and technical abilities are solid enough to get the job done. Showtime loves to come forward and press the action. That pressure and heavy work rate should pose a lot of trouble for the battle weary Berto.

Of course, Berto is still a very respectable fighter but post shoulder surgery, he cannot keep step with  the tireless Shawn Porter. We’re picking Porter to win on points. He should be able to force Berto to box him and avoid getting into a slugfest where Berto still has the puncher’s chance.

Beautiful Brutality: Why Martin Murray Will Beat Gabriel Rosado

Sports News & Picks, , , , ,

Martin Murray returns to the middleweight division on April 22nd when he faces veteran Gabriel Rosado at the Liverpool Echo Arena in England.

Moving Down

After three failed tries at the middleweight title which culminated in an 11th round TKO loss to Gennady Golovkin in February of 2015, Martin Murray has since campaigned at super middleweight. There, Murray won five of seven bouts but lost another title shot against Arthur Abraham in November of 2015. Another loss to countryman George Groves last June may have made Murray think twice about staying at Super Middleweight. Two fights later, he goes down to 160 pounds once again to face an opponent who, like him, has tried but failed to win a world title in his decorated career.

An Uphill Battle

Gabriel Rosado was a 21-5 up and coming contender when he was stopped by Gennady Golovkin in his first attempt at a world title back in 2013. Since then, it’s been an uphill battle for the Pennsylvania native. Rosado has won only twice since, losing four times and earning one no-contest over the period. To his credit, though, Rosado fought top some notch competition lately: Peter Quillin, Jermell Charlo, David Lemieux, Joshua Clottey and Willie Monroe Jr. With the losses piling up, Rosado needs to rebound quickly or else his career could be ending pretty soon. Facing Murray is a big challenge but it will also be a huge reward bout if Rosado wins. If you ask Rosado, there isn’t any doubt that he will.

The Odds

Murray is currently a -350 against Rosado’s +265. And while this bout is going to be competitive, brutal and bloody, we’re going with Martin Murray here. Sure, he’s always been exciting to watch with his brawling style but Rosado has been struggling in the last couple of years. With two wins in his last seven fights, he appears to be on the way down. Murray meanwhile has won five of seven bouts since the Golovkin loss. Four of those wins were by KO and his losses were to Arthur Abraham and George Groves. This fight’s in England and Murray’s only loss in his home country has been against Groves.

Murray’s weakness was his lack of power but with four KO wins in seven super middleweight fights he’s proven otherwise. Murray’s rugged style is a bad match-up for Rosado and if he’s expecting a Gatti-Ward style war, he’s not going to win this at all. Murray is one of the sport’s toughest competitors. This could end in a stoppage with the brutality expected but if this one’s going to get stopped, it will be in Murray’s favor. I can’t see Rosado winning on points either with Murray being the better all-around fighter between the two. We’re picking Martin Murray to beat Gabriel Rosado.

UFC 210: Will Brooks vs. Charles Oliveira Odds and Prediction

Sports News & Picks, , , , , , , , , , ,

An interesting lightweight matchup was added to UFC 210 fight card, as Will Brooks faces the returning Charles Oliveira in a three round affair.

Rough Road

The move to the UFC has been a rough road for Will Brooks. After winning the Bellator Season 9 Lightweight tournament in 2013, Brooks cemented his status as the Scott Coker-led promotion’s Lightweight king with back to back victories over Michael Chandler. After two title defenses, though, Brooks tried his luck at the UFC where he signed a six-fight deal and debuted with a UD win over Ross Pearson at the TUF 23 Finale. But one fight later, Brooks suffered the second defeat of his career at the hands of Alex Oliveira, losing by KO at UFC Fight Night 23. The last time he lost, Brooks bounced back with nine straight wins. He looks to rebound again against a tough submission artist.

Submission Specialist

Charles Oliveira’s middle name should’ve been submission because the Brazilian veteran is one of the best submission artists in the UFC. A whopping 13 of Oliveira’s 21 victories have come by submission and he’s had a long line of notable victims in the UFC: Hatsu Hioki, Jeremy Stephens, Nick Lentz and most recently Myles Jury. Despite his grappling expertise, it was kind of surprising to see Oliveira lose his last two bouts by submission, both by guillotine choke to Anthony Pettis and Ricardo Lamas. Still ever dangerous on the mat, Oliveira looks to rebound – just like Brooks – from a defeat and rise as one of the contenders in the red hot lightweight division.

The Odds

Will Brooks is a -260 favorite while Charles Oliveira is currently a +250 underdog. Despite Brooks’ two fight resume in the UFC, he is a proven winner with the Bellator title on top of his achievements. Sure, he lost to Alex Oliveira, but remember Cowboy grossly missed weight for that bout and Brooks still took it. Will Brooks has been nothing but solid all throughout his career and his consistency should be crucial here. If this fight remains on the feet, Brooks has a huge advantage over Oliveira and if this one goes down to the ground (which is likely Oliveira’s game plan), Brooks’ grappling and wrestling are polished enough to match Oliveira.

Aside from a two fight losing skid, Oliveira is expecting his wife to give birth to their first child at about the same time UFC 210 is happening. No matter how focused he and his team says he is about Will Brooks, you can never take away a father’s excitement of his first born child. Oliveira needs a win badly but moving back up to 155 isn’t the solution. Nor is it going to be fighting Will Brooks. Du Bronx hasn’t won at 155 since December of 2015 and he’s not going to win against Will Brooks either. We’re picking Will Brooks to beat Charles Oliveira.

Chris Weidman American Flag

Chris Weidman vs. Gegard Mousasi Odds and Prediction: Can All-American Bounce Back?

Sports News & Picks, , , , , , , , , ,

Former UFC middleweight Chris Weidman looks to stop the first losing streak of his career when he faces the surging Gegard Mousasi at UFC 210 on April 8th.

Opposite Ways

Weidman vs Mousasi is a fight between fighters going opposite ways. Mousasi is on his best winning run ever, while Weidman is trying to snap out of a skid.

Chris Weidman was one of the hottest fighters when he came off back to back wins over the legendary Anderson Silva. But after going 13-0, it has been downhill for the New Yorker. Not only did he lose his middleweight title to Luke Rockhold at UFC 194, he lost his comeback fight against Yoel Romero at the monumental UFC 205 in New York.

With back to back losses, Weidman cannot afford another setback. But things haven’t gotten easier as he will face a fighter who is experiencing his best run in his UFC career. Former Strikeforce middleweight champion Gegard Mousasi has won six of his last seven fights and his last three by knockout. Mousasi’s winning streak has put him him in the Top 5 of the UFC middleweight rankings for the first time ever. A victory over the 4th ranked Weidman will surely generate talks of a title shot against the winner of Bisping vs St. Pierre.

The Odds

Weidman is currently at even money ( +100 ) while Mousasi is slightly favored at -125. The concern with Weidman right not is that he’s lost back to back fights by knockout and Gegard Mousasi has the same (if not more) power than Luke Rockhold and Yoel Romero.

Like Weidman’s last two conquerors, Mousasi is an excellent striker who averages 3.68 significant strikes landed per minute. He’s also precise with his strikes at 50% accuracy. If this fight stays on the feet, Mousasi will have the big advantage over Weidman. But that’s not the end of our story. Mousasi’s takedown defense is good, but not great. And against an All-American wrestler like Weidman, that could spell trouble.

Grounding Mousasi

Weidman averages 3.33 takedowns per 15 minutes. That’s more than the average of the last 7 opponents of Mousasi, during which he’s been 6-1. The last time Mousasi faced someone with a better average was in 2014 against Jacare Souza. During that bout, Mousasi was taken to the ground four times and was submitted by the Brazilian grappler in the third round.

Weidman may not have the submission skills of Souza but his wrestling and grappling are just as dominating. If Weidman forces Mousasi to the mat, it’s going to be trouble for the Dream Catcher. This fight can go either way but given this will be in Weidman’s hometown in New York and Weidman is more desperate for a victory, we’re going with Chris Weidman here.

Sure, it’s not going to be necessarily dominant. But this will be ugly and grinding. Weidman’s going to take Mousasi to the ground and win it whichever way he can. We’re picking Chris Weidman to win by decision or ground and pound stoppage.

A New Era: Liam Smith vs. Liam Williams Odds and Prediction

Sports News & Picks, , , , , , ,

It’s Liam verus Liam on April 8th at England’s Manchester Arena when former WBO super welterweight champion Liam Smith tests the unbeaten British and Commonwealth super welterweight title holder Liam Williams in the co-main event of Terry Flanagan’s 5th title defense against Petr Petrov.

A New Era

Dubbed as ‘A New Era’, Liam vs. Liam features two of England’s best 154-pounders. Smith was the former WBO world champion before losing to Canelo Alvarez by 9th round TKO in September 2016. Smith returned to action on March 18th and won a 4-round bout against Marian Cazacu in Spain. He will be fighting on back to back months.

Williams won the British and Commonwealth 154-pound titles by stopping Gary Corcoran at the Wales Ice Rink in July of 2016. He is coming off a November victory over Gabor Gorbics. For his achievements last year, the undefeated Williams was named as the British Boxing Writers Young Boxer of the Year for 2016.

Incidentally, Smith and Williams are the #1 and #2 super welterweights in Britain, respectively so bragging rights is an added prize aside from the WBO European belt which will will be on the line when these two collide on April 8th.

Odds and Prediction

Manchester Arena will definitely be fully packed for this contest because many British boxing fans consider this to be a truly 50/50 bout. The odds currently say that Williams is a -125 and set Smith at even money at +100.

It may look interesting that the young up and comer is favored over the more experienced former world champion but Liam Williams may be the best super welterweight in Britain today. The 24-year old Welshman is a very accurate puncher who possesses a very strong right uppercut. At 5’10”, he’s got good size and length. Williams also comes in on fire, having won his last 8 bouts by stoppage.

Smith ,meanwhile, has a polished offensive game and throws very good combinations. Smith has a balanced head and body attack and while he may not have the same power as Williams but eight of his last wins have come via knockout. The one big concern here is that he will be fighting in back to back months which is always risky. No question that his last bout was just a four rounder but the quick turnaround could backfire against a talented blue-chip contender who has all the motives to beat him.

We’re picking Liam Williams to win here because he’s got the better jab and the heavier hands. Smith may appear to be much more experienced but in reality, his resume isn’t that good. So get your popcorn ready. This should be a good one but we expect Williams to remain undefeated.

Jorge Linares vs. Anthony Crolla Odds and Prediction

Sports News & Picks, , , , ,

Repeat or Revenge.

Those are the two possible outcomes for this lightweight title rematch scheduled on March 25th at Manchester Arena.

Jorge Linares and Anthony Crolla fought to a twelve round decision when they first met in the same venue. Back then, it was Linares’ first bout in a year. He hurt his hand in the 6th round but managed to finish the fight strong and take the decision. After a bloody bout, he is giving Crolla the opportunity to get that fight back.

Top Lightweight

Jorge Linares has established himself as  one of the best lightweights in the planet. He’s won 10 fights in a row and has not lost since back to back knockout defeats to Antonio De Marco and Sergio Thompson in 2011 and 2012, respectively. Overall, the Venezuelan Golden Boy has a record of 41-3 with 27 knockouts. He won the WBA Lightweight title and the vacant Ring Lightweight title last September with a unanimous decision win over Britain’s Million Dolla Anthony Crolla.

Million Dolla

Crolla is one of Britain’s fast rising stars. After his first title challenge against Darleys Perez ended in a draw in 2015, he captured the WBA title by knocking out Perez in the 5th round of their November 2015 rematch. Crolla bested Linares’ fellow Venezuelan Ismael Barroso in his first title defense. Crolla lost to Linares in his next world title fight. Crolla has never lost back to back fights in his career. He’s hoping it stays that way when he fights Linares again on March 25th.

Odds and Pick

Linares is currently at -245 while the underdog Crolla is at +205. The lines aren’t that wide but personally, I don’t think this fight is ending differently as the first one.

Linares won 117-111, 115-113 and 115-114 but if you watch the fight again, it was clearly a no-contest. Linares outboxed Crolla for 12 rounds and the judges’ scores didn’t reflect that. Linares clearly had more power in his punches, more hand speed and was the better boxer. He also displayed a more varied attack than Crolla. Skillwise, we’re giving it to Linares. Crolla does have the home crowd behind him, but even then, it didn’t help him much in the first bout. I’m not saying Crolla doesn’t have a shot at beating Linares. There was a rematch clause and that is why we’re having this fight. But it’s hard to imagine how Crolla can change the outcome in six months time. We’re picking Linares to win on points, this time by a wider points margin.

UFC 210 Predictions: Why Anthony Johnson Will Beat Daniel Cormier

Sports News & Picks, ,

Canada’s loss is New York’s gain.

That’s because this rematch was supposed to headline UFC 206 last year in Canada. Unfortunately, the injury bug struck and it was moved to a later date which later became UFC 210 on April 8th, 2017 at the Key Bank center in Buffalo New York.

Take Two

This will be the second fight between current UFC Light Heavyweight Champion Daniel Cormier and challenger Anthony ‘Rumble’ Johnson. These two fought for the vacant title in 2015 during the period where Jon Jones was stripped by the UFC of his belt because of personal issues. During that fight, Daniel Cormier effectively used his wrestling base to dominate Anthony Johnson and later submit him to win the world title.

This time around, Cormier promises that he will go to to toe with Rumble, although not many believe he will actually do that against one of the hardest hitting strikers the UFC has ever seen. Johnson is coming off a one-punch annihilation of perennial contender Glover Teixeira. Cormier meanwhile has not fought since beating Anderson Silva in a special match at UFC 200. Both will be making their first ever appearance in New York.

Odds

Cormier is currently pegged at +100 while Rumble is at -130. During their first bout, both fighters were able to show their signature skills: DC with his wrestling and Rumble with his power. Unfortunately for Johnson ( or luckily for DC ), he gassed and was caught in a rear naked choke in Round 3. But that fight was almost two years ago. Cormier is now 38 and although he’s put up back to back wins over Alexander Gustafsson and Anderson Silva, time and injuries may have caught up with the champ. Cormier pulled out from two bouts last year, the latest of which was supposed to be against Rumble at UFC 206.

On the other hand, Anthony Johnson has been on a tear since losing to Cormier. Rumble has recorded three straight knockout wins over Jimi Manuwa, Ryan Bader and Glover Teixeira. None of those bouts went past round two so doubters will still think about his cardio and stamina in a five round bout. But at 33, Johnson may be at his peak. This is his second attempt at the Light Heavyweight title and it comes against the only man to beat him in this division. Rumble looks like he’s locked in focus on winning that title. We’re picking Anthony Johnson to beat Daniel Cormier and win the UFC Light Heavyweight title.

USBA Heavyweight Title Preview: Travis Kauffman vs. Amir Mansour Odds and Prediction

Sports News & Picks, , , , , , ,

Heavyweight Travis Kauffman will face Amir Mansour for the USBA Heavyweight title at the Santander Arena in Reading, Pennsylvania on March 17th.

Road To Heavyweight Championship

The event has been billed as the road to the heavyweight championship as these two veteran fighters have never fought for a world title although both have come close before. Kauffman lost to Chris Arreola by split decision in December of 2015 before that bout was changed to a no-contest after Arreola failed a drug test.

Despite that, Nightmare earned a shot at Deontay Wilder in his next bout. Mansour meanwhile knocked down Dominic Breazeale before retiring on his stool after five rounds. Breazeale went on to challenge Anthony Joshua in his next bout. With missed opportunities like those in the past, a victory be either here should push him closer to that road to the title.

Red Hot

Because the Arreola bout was changed to a no-contest, Kauffman thus enters this fight unbeaten in his last 14 bouts. In his most recent bout, Kauffman stopped Josh Gormley in two rounds last September 2016. Although he doesn’t have many big names in his resume, his red hot streak remains impressive. Kauffman is physically imposing at 6-3 with a reach of 76.

He may not be a special talent like Joshua or Wilder, but he possesses punching power and is a very decently skilled fighter. Kauffman does have a powerful fight hand and if Mansour isn’t careful, things could end early. Kauffman’s last three knockout wins have come under round two.

Father Time

Amir Mansour isn’t just just fighting Travis Kauffman here, he’s also battling Father Time. At 44, Mansour may not have too many opportunities left. In his most recent bout, Mansour looked like he was on the way to upsetting Dominic Breazeale. But he retired on his stool after five rounds due to a bad cut on his mouth. The injury forced him off the ring for the last 13 months and that inactivity may prove to be costly for this aging veteran. Despite his age, Mansour remains to be in shape and as he proved against Breazeale, he still has a lot of punching power left in his fists. Mansour is a pressure fighter who loves to be the aggressor. Five of his last seven wins have been by knockout and it’s likely he’s going for another one against Kauffman.

Both fighters are currently at -115 in this pick ‘em bout. But given the age difference and the fact that Kauffman will be fighting in his home town, we’re giving our pick to Travis Kauffman. Not only will he have the crowd cheering on for him but  endurance matters in the heavyweight division. Sure, it was injury that forced Mansour to quit against Breazeale, but he was running out of gas after failing to put Breazeale away after the knockdown. We’re picking Travis Kauffman to win this bout, possibly on points or another ‘No Mas’ from Mansour.