All posts by Chris Blain

Sammy Vasquez vs. Luis Collazo Odds and Prediction

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Sammy Vasquez and Luis Collazo kick-off the Premier Boxing Champions’ (PBC) 2017 calendar with a 10-round main event welterweight bout on February 2nd at the Horseshoe Tunica Hotel & Casino in Tunica, Mississippi.

Making Collazo Pay

The two were slated to fight each other last July but a calf muscle injury suffered by Collazo forced the cancellation of the fight. As a result, Vasquez went on to face Felix Diaz Jr. in the undercard of Wilder-Arreola and suffered his first ever loss as a professional. Now Vasquez isn’t just eager to get back to his winning ways, the Sergeant is looking to make Collazo pay for playing a part in the derailment of his title bid.

A former National guard who served two tours of duties in Iraq, Vasquez was an undefeated contender who was closing in on a title shot when he got ambushed by Diaz. On the other hand, ex-world champion Collazo is looking to keep his career going after losing to Amir Khan in 2014 and Keith Thurman in 2015.

How Much is Left?

Vasquez has a 68% knockout ratio and he gets his KOs with wicked body shots and relentless combinations. When he lands his power shots, Vasquez is very tough to beat. Vasquez likes to be the aggressor in a bout and he’s proven to have a very good chin. In his last fight, Vasquez took a heavy beating from Diaz, so it will be interesting how he responds after his first career setback.

Collazo, meanwhile, is a tricky opponent who is accurate with his punches. He may no longer be a spring chicken at 36 years of age but he still packs decent power in his punches. Six of his last eight wins have been by knockout and he almost dropped Keith Thurman with a solid body shot during their bout.

Collazo has been in the ring with the best in the business and his experience towers over Vasquez. However, the question with Collazo is how much is left in that tank especially since we haven’t seen him fight since his 2015 defeat to Thurman.

The Pick

Vasquez is a -270 favorite over Collazo who currently stands at +210. Collazo has fought better opposition in his career and will have several tricks to show Vasquez on fight night. However, the younger lion may not only be the hungrier fighter here, he is also the one who can push the pace and dictate the tempo.

Vasquez’s aggressive style and hard punches may overwhelm Collazo whose stamina hasn’t been good enough in recent fights. This fight is going to have a good start but the longer this one goes, Collazo won’t be able to keep up with a hungry contender who may be nearing his prime.

We’re picking Sammy Vasquez to win by decision or stoppage in the second half of the fight. Either way, it’s going to be a dominant win for the Sergeant.

UFC Fight Night 104: Dennis Bermudez vs. Chan Sung Jung Odds and Prediction

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One of the UFC’s most charismatic fighters returns to the octagon after a three-year absence.

Zombie Returns

South Korean featherweight Chan Sung Jung will make his UFC return on February 4th at UFC Fight Night 104 at the Toyota Center in Houston, Texas. Known as the Korean Zombie for his uncanny ability to take heavy punishment, Jung left the UFC in 2013 in order to serve his two year mandatory military service to his home country. Jung hasn’t fought since his failed title bid against Jose Aldo at UFC 163.

Meanwhile, Dennis Bermudez will be getting his first main event appearance against the Korean Zombie. A finalist in The Ultimate Fighter 14, Bermudez is 2-2 in his last four bouts but has won two fights in a row. The Menace is coming off decision wins over Tatsuya Kawajiri and Rony Jason and will be looking to improve his current #9 ranking in the UFC’s 145 pound division. Jung is unranked but don’t let that deceive you.

Choke Artist?

Current odds have Bermudez a slight -135 favorite over Jung’s +123. The reason is likely the Korean Zombie’s three-year hiatus from the sport. On the other hand, Bermudez has won two in a row with both wins coming in 2016. However, Bermudez hasn’t had a really meaningful win since beating Max Holloway by split decision at UFC 160 in 2013. Prior to his win streak, he lost by stoppage to Ricardo Lamas and Jeremy Stephens.

Bermudez likes to wear his opponents down and beat them in a grinder. But while he’s an excellent wrestler, he doesn’t have good submission defense. Four of his five losses have actually come by submission. The problem here is that Chan Sung Jung is a submission artist, with 9 of his 14 wins by submission. It’s interesting to note that three of Bermudez’s four submission losses were via chokes and five of Jung’s nine submission wins were by chokes, too.

The Pick

Bermudez has a feared ground and pound game but remember he lost the TUF 14 tournament after getting caught with an armbar while hammering Diego Barandao. Having said that, the Korean Zombie should have the advantage if this fight goes down to the ground.

On their feet, Jung is the better striker and has the physical advantages over Bermudez at three inches in height and six inches in reach. Given the plus money, I’d risk the Zombie’s ring rust and pick him to submit Dennis Bermudez for the victory.

Donald Cerrone vs. Jorge Masvidal Odds and Prediction

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Donald ‘Cowboy’ Cerrone returns to the UFC Octagon against Jorge Masvidal at UFC on Fox 23 on January 28th, 2016.

I Know A Guy

Known as the most active fighter in the UFC, Cerrone had just beaten Matt Brown at UFC 206 last December 10th, 2016. But after disposing of the ‘Immortal’, Cerrone immediately requested to be booked for UFC on Fox 23, which will be held in his hometown of Denver, Colorado.

Known for his trademark statement ‘I know A Guy’ when volunteering to fight on short notice, Cerrone wanted to fight so badly on the event that he was willing to fight anybody the UFC would put in front of him. Cerrone is 4-0 since moving up to welterweight and he’s had impressive success. He submitted Charles Oliveira, then knocked out PAtrick Cote, Rick Story and Brown in succession. He’s looking to improve his #5 ranking in his new weight class.

Revenge Factor

Jorge Masvidal has been campaigning for a fight with Cerrone for quite some time now. After beating Jake Ellenberger at the TUF 24 Finale last month, he called out Cowboy once again.

Masvidal was slated to face Kelvin Gastelum last November at the iconic UFC 205, but Gastelum was pulled out from their bout and was booked to face Cerrone at the same event after Robbie Lawler begged off of his bout with Cowboy. Masvidal didn’t like that move and sees this fight as a way of getting his revenge on Cerrone. Masvidal owns notable victories over K.J. Noons, Tim Means, Ross Pearson and Ellenberger. However, he’s lost the biggest fights of his career and has been hit or miss lately.

Who Wins

Cerrone is a -160 favorite over Masvidal who is now at +140. Although Masvidal is coming off a big win over Ellenberger, he is 3-3 only in his last bouts.

According to Fightmetric, Masvidal lands more strikes per minute at 4.2 versus 4.16. He also has the better striking defense at 64% against 54% for Cowboy. Masvidal’s 1.98 takedowns per 15 minutes is also better than Cerrone’s 1.38. However, Cerrone is the better all-around fighter. Masvidal may give Cerrone a fight standing up but when this goes to the ground, Cowboy has all the advantage with his supreme submission skills.

Masvidal has a history of struggling against better opposition and against Cerrone, he will also be fighting in hostile territory. Masvidal is a good boxer and excellent striker but Cerrone has been in the zone lately. We’re picking Donald Cerrone to beat Jorge Masvidal in this contest.

Mikey Garcia vs. Dejan Zlaticanin Fight Odds and Prediction

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Mikey Garcia looks to become world champion once again as he challenges unbeaten Dejan Zlaticanin for the WBC Lightweight world championship in the co-main event of Frampton-Santa Cruz 2 at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas Nevada on January 28th.

A Three Division Champion?

After winning world titles as a featherweight and junior lightweight, the Oxnard, California standout is looking to win a third weight class at the young age of 29. After spending two and a half years in the sidelines due to a contract dispute with Top Rank, Garcia returned to action and knocked out former featherweight titleholder Elio Rojas in five rounds in the undercard of Santa Cruz-Frampton 1 at the Barclays Center in New York last July 30, 2016. Now, Garcia fights again as the co-main event of the same headliner. This time around, he moves up in weight and faces a dangerous opponent, who like him is undefeated as a professional.

Dynamite In His Fists

Little is known of Dejan Zlaticanin in the U.S. market but the 32-year old fighter is known as ‘Dynamite’ for packing major power in his fists. Dinamita won the WBC title with a third round knockout of Frank Mamani and will defend it for the first time on January 28th. He owns notable wins over Petr Petrov, Ivan Redkach and Ricky Burns, too, so he isn’t a patsy.

Zlaticanin is the first fighter from Montenegro to win a boxing world title. He is also hoping to become the first superstar of the sport from his country. He gets that opportunity when he faces undoubtedly the biggest name in professional boxing career. Zlaticanin has promised not just a win. He is predicting to knockout his more popular opponent.

First Time on Big Stage

Zlaticanin is a very polished boxer who has very good offense. He mixes his punches well and is an accurate puncher. He’s not so much of a one punch knockout artist. But the accumulation of heavy blows often takes it toll on the opposition. Zlaticanin has won five of his last eight bouts by knockout. This will only be his third fight in the United States and his first on the big stage.

Loves The Challenge

Garcia has been in the limelight all of his career and he’s proven to be one of the sport’s best boxers when active. However, this is only his second fight in three years and that’s hard not to overlook especially against an excellent opponent like Zlaticanin. But when he’s on top of his game, Garcia has ridiculous skills and power. His boxing IQ and pedigree are supreme. Mikey has never backed away from a challenge and that’s why he took this fight.

Garcia is -225 favorite to beat Zlaticanin who is at +175. Despite his inactivity in recent years, he lives for these type of big fights. Zlaticanin has the power to stop Garcia, but Mikey’s boxing IQ will likely be the key here. We’re picking Mikey Garcia to win this fight

Carl Frampton vs. Leo Santa Cruz 2 Odds and Prediction

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Carl Frampton defends his WBA (Super) Featherweight title for the first time against the man he won it from-Leo Santa Cruz on January 28th, 2017 at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Immediate Rematch

After a scintillating first bout in July of 2016 where Frampton won by a close majority decision, two of the world’s best small weight fighters go at it one more time. Frampton dealt Santa Cruz his first defeat in 34 fights and the latter immediately asked for a rematch which the Jackal agreed upon just as quickly.

Known for his volume punching and fast hands, Leo Santa Cruz is looking to rebound from his first ever career loss. It will be interesting to see how he recovers, especially since he will be fighting the very man who beat him the last time out. Carl Frampto,n meanwhile, is still high over that victory which is without doubt the biggest win of his career. The Belfast native is looking to keep his momentum going as he is 3-0 on U.S. soil.

Reversal Of Roles

During the first encounter, the highly touted Santa Cruz was a -300 favorite to beat the +265 Frampton. This time around, the roles have been reversed. The Jackal is now the favorite, although not by much, to beat Santa Cruz once again. Oddsmakers have Frampton as a -145 favorite over Santa Cruz, who is currently pegged at +125.

Despite the close lines, it’s highly unlikely that this fight is ending much differently. Santa Cruz may have the flashy offensive numbers but with his volume punching comes his tendency to get hit more often. Against a patient and calculated opponent like Carl Frampton, that will be disastrous.

Quality over Quantity

During their first bout in July of 2016, Santa Cruz threw 1002 punches as compared to Frampton’s 668. However, he only out-connected the Jackal 255-242 in total punches landed. That’s a huge disparity of 36% against 25% in punch accuracy.

It wasn’t just that. Frampton also landed more of the telling blows during the fight, outscoring Santa Cruz 206-191 in total power punches landed. Those numbers show you that while Santa Cruz is indeed a high volume output puncher, he wasn’t as accurate against Frampton’s excellent defense. On the other hand, the smarter Frampton was able to land the more high quality punches as Santa Cruz was on the offense.

Given that the rematch is merely six months after their first encounter, Frampton will likely get the nod once again. No doubt, Leo Santa Cruz has a solid chin and the Jackal may not get a stoppage here. But given Santa Cruz’s quantity and the Jackal’s quality, Carl Frampton should come out as the winner, by a clearer unanimous decision.

Bellator 170: Tito Ortiz vs. Chael Sonnen Odds and Prediction

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Former UFC light heavyweight champion Tito Ortiz and UFC light heavyweight title contender Chael Sonnen collide on January 21st in the main event of Bellator 170 at the Forum in Inglewood, California.

One Last Hurrah

Bellator continues to put up the blast from the past matchups, this time pitting 41-year old Tito Ortiz against the nearly 40-year old Chael Sonnen. But despite the fact that these two fighters are way past their athletic primes, they remain two of the more popular figures in MMA. Still, apart from being very good draws, there is almost nothing left in the tank for both.

Tito Ortiz has lost seven of his last 10 bouts and is coming off a 2015 loss to Liam McGeary at Bellator 142. He’s 2-1 in his Bellator career but has not won since a split decision win over Stephan Bonnar in 2014. On the other hand, Chael Sonnen has been an respectable 6-4 in his last 10 bouts. Sonnen is coming off a TKO loss to Rashad Evans at UFC 167, way back in 2013. He’s been hit or miss lately, though, splitting his last 8 bouts with four wins and four losses. Chael’s last victory came in 2013 against Mauricio ‘Shogun’ Rua at UFC Fight Night 26.

Wrestler Vs Striker

Sonnen was an All-American wrestler during his college days and was a good international Greco-Roman wrestler. Having said that, wrestling is the core of Sonnen’s MMA game. He is widely known for his double leg takedown, which used to be one of the best in the business. Chael does have respectable striking skills but typically he uses it to set up the takedown.

Ortiz, meanwhile, gained fame for being the ‘Huntington Beach Bad Boy’ who punched his way to superstardom. Known as one of the fighters who brought MMA to the mainstream, Ortiz used to own a punishing ground and pound game. His powerful hands give him the advantage here in the striking game, but he has a weakness of being foolishly lured to a slugfest which has led to defeat several times.

Plus Money

Sonnen opened as a -155 favorite against Ortiz’s +125. Those lines haven’t changed much since at -160 and +130, respectively. With two fighters who’ve been doing anything but fighting lately, it’s really hard to pick a winner here because you don’t know what each has got left in the tank, if any. It’s really another show for Bellator, but one that’s interesting to bet on.

The slightly younger Sonnen may have the fighting edge because of his style. Given Sonnen’s base and Ortiz’s striking, Chael will take his chances on the ground rather than on his feet against a heavy handed opponent like Tito Ortiz. Having said that, Ortiz himself has a polished ground game and can finish the fight on the mat too. The question, of course, is what remains of Sonnen’s game after the time he’s spent off the cage. This will be Sonnen’s first Bellator bout.

The value of the plus money on Ortiz is tempting and then there are the intangibles. First, Ortiz has fought more recently. He is also the naturally bigger man between the two and will be the crowd favorite since the fight will be in California. So, to pick between two aged veterans, I’d rather take my chance on the plus money and intangibles. It also doesn’t hurt that Tito felt slighted by Sonnen. Unsurprisingly, we’re taking Tito Ortiz by knockout.

UFC Fight Night 103: Joe Lauzon vs. Marcin Held Odds And Prediction

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In a battle of UFC veteran against newcomer, Joe Lauzon faces Marcin Held in the co-headliner of  UFC Fight Night 103 on January 15th, 2017 at the Talking Stick Resort Arena in Phoenix, Arizona.

The Bonus Man

Lauzon is the UFC’s all-time leader in Post Fight Bonuses with 15. Considering he’s fought 21 times under the UFC banner, it’s safe to say that Lauzon is an all-exciting fighter, win or lose. But the rigors of a long 10-year career with the UFC have taken its toll on the Bonus Man. Lauzon is just an even 3-3 in his last six bouts. In his most recent Octagon appearance, Lauzon lost via split decision to Jim Miller. With his career on the rocks, he hopes to get back to his winning ways against a promotional newcomer who’s also looking to make a mark in his new home.

Polish Prodigy

Known as the Polish Prodigy in media circuits, the 24-year old Marcin Held has fought mostly in his native Poland before making quite a name for himself in Bellator MMA. In Bellator, Held had an 11-3 record but came short in his first and only title shot at Bellator 145. Despite that, Held owns notable wins over Phillipe Nover, Rich Clementi, Derek Anderson and Ryan Freire. The victory over Freire earned Held the title of Bellator Lightweight Tournament season 10 winner. In his UFC debut last November, Held lost to Diego Sanchez by unanimous decision. He looks to pocket his first UFC win against the equally hungry Lauzon.

Experience Over Youth

The odds currently have Joe Lauzon as a -150 favorite over Held, who is at +120. Held hasn’t lost back to back bouts in his entire MMA career and is the younger man in this contest. He is an excellent grappler with 12 submission wins under his belt. He also has shown that he can go the distance with quality opponents.

Joe Lauzon, though, has the experience and the better all-around game. He can win the fight on the ground, as well as on his feet. Lauzon has won 65% of his bouts by submission. He also owns the most Submission of the Night awards in the UFC with six. But his last three victories have been by knockout. In addition, 25 of Lauzon’s 26 victories have been by stoppage, so he’s also a guy who can finish the fight at any moment.

Held is a good prospect for the UFC, but at this point of his career he isn’t experienced enough to outlast a fighter who’s gone toe to toe with some of the best in the business. We’re picking Joe Lauzon to win here by late submission or unanimous decision.

Boxing Betting: Can Yuri Foreman Upset Erislandy Lara?

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WBA and IBO Super Welterweight champion Erislandy Lara looks to stay busy as he awaits a big money fight with the other champions in his weight class. The 33-year old Cuban faces former champion Yuri Foreman on January 13th in Hialeah, Florida.

Red Hot Division

2016 saw the rise of boxing’s 154-pound division with the arrival of the Charlo twins. Jermall and Jermell winning world titles made the light middleweight division more interesting enough for Canelo Alvarez to return to the division he once dominated. Alvarez won the WBO version of the title by beating Liam Smith last September. With three big names holding the other three belts, Erislandy Lara must stay relevant to get one of them.

After losing a disputed split decision to Canelo in 2014, Lara has won four fights in a row. In his most recent outing, Lara scored an impressive UD win over Vanes Martirosyan in May of 2016.

Former Champion

Yuri Foreman won the WBA Super Welterweight title in 2009 by defeating Daniel Santos. He lost it in his first title defense against Miguel Cotto the following year. During that loss, Foreman tore his ACL and took nine months off before losing to Pawel Wolak in his next fight. The Fighting Rabbi then took 22 months off before his current six-fight winning streak against unknown competition. He’s boxed over 200 rounds in his career and has faced some quality opposition along the way. There is no way to disrespect Foreman, but it’s unlikely he will get past Lara.

Cherry Picked Opponent?

Lara is a huge -7000 pick to beat Foreman who is currently at +3000. During his prime, Foreman was a solid boxer with excellent defense. But that was before he had his injuries and long layoffs. He hasn’t fought a meaningful bout since Cotto and hasn’t been really impressive against low quality opposition either.

Many think Foreman is simply a cherry picked opponent to keep Lara busy.  Lara is younger, faster and stronger than the aging Foreman and he has the tools to make this an easy looking fight. If you are looking to bet on a knockout though, this isn’t the fight to bet on. Twelve of Foreman’s last 14 victories have been by decision while Lara is known as a technical fighter who uses excellent defense to avoid getting hit. He also owns a 74 inch reach that keeps him out of danger against any opponent. We’re picking Lara to win by a wide unanimous decision.

UFC Fight Night 103: B.J. Penn vs. Yair Rodriguez Preview and Prediction

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B.J. Penn makes his long awaited UFC return on January 15th when he faces former TUF Latin America winner Yair Rodriguez in a five round featherweight bout that will serve as the main event of UFC Fight Night 103 at the Talking Stick Resort Arena in Phoenix.

Take Four

The former UFC welterweight and lightweight champion Penn hasn’t fought in two years and his return to the octagon has been postponed on several occasions. Penn was originally slated to face Denis Siver at UFC 196 (then 197) , Cole Miller at UFC 199 and then Ricardo Lamas at UFC Fight Night Manila.

But those bouts didn’t push thru for one reason or another, leaving Penn’s latest comeback attempt in question. The most recent of those, against Lamas, was cancelled after Penn suffered a rib injury. But with Penn now 100% healthy, the Prodigy is finally set to return to the sport where he became a legend.

Unbeaten Prospect

Yair Rodriguez is one of the up and coming fighters in the featherweight division. After winning The Ultimate Fighter: Latin America featherweight tournament in 2014, Pantera has racked up four straight victories to rise to #10 in the rankings. In his most recent outing, Rodriguez headlined UFC Fight Night 92. There, he came up with his biggest UFC win, a five round decision win over fellow prospect Alex Caceres. Against Penn, Yair will not only be headlining his second event, he will be facing the first legitimate superstar in his young UFC career.

Past His Prime

There is no doubt that B.J. Penn is already past his prime at age 38. Penn hasn’t won since knocking out Matt Hughes at UFC 123 in 2010. Since then, he’s fought just four times, losing thrice and figuring in a draw once. Penn’s last fight was in 2014, when he got knocked out by Frankie Edgar during the TUF 19 Finale. After that fight, Penn announced his retirement, again. A year later, he announced his intention to return by starting to work with Greg Jackson at the Jackson Wink MMA in New Mexico. However, it remains to be seen what is left of Penn, if anything.

Winnable, Though

Despite the obvious downside, this is a winnable fight for B.J. Penn. Yair Rodriguez isn’t heavy handed and we saw that against Alex Caceres. He only has two KOs in 8 MMA wins. He isn’t also excellent in any particular discipline. He doesn’t have great boxing or wrestling and that leaves an opportunity for Penn to beat him. However, Rodriguez has great pace and cardio. He pushes his unorthodox attack with voluminous kicks. It’s in these that Penn may not be able to keep up with. Most likely, this will be the scenario. While Rodriguez may not have the pop to knock out B.J. Penn, he does have the pace to outstrike him for five rounds. Our pick here? Yair Rodriguez by unanimous decision.

Boxing Betting: James DeGale vs. Badou Jack Odds And Prediction

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James DeGale and Badou Jack will open boxing’s new year with an exciting match-up on January 14th, 2017. The two fighters are set to unify boxing’s super middleweight titles at the Barclays Center in New York.

Title Unification Bout

Englishman DeGale has been on a roll, winning his last 13 bouts and capturing the IBF super middleweight title along the way. After beating Andre Dirrell to win that belt, DeGale has successfully defended it twice and now he’s setting his sights on Badou Jack’s WBC crown and the vacant Ring Super Middleweight title.  

Jack has won four of his last five bouts but is coming off a majority draw against Lucian Bute last April. Like DeGale, he’s defended his WBC super middleweight title twice already. Half of Captain Jack’s last 14 victories have been by knockout, although his last three bouts against top level competition have been close.

This will be DeGale’s first bout in New York and Jack’s third in the Big Apple.

Strengths

Jack’s a well-rounded fighter who has a good jab but has a tendency to lunge forward when he punches. He’s tough to beat, especially when he gets his offense going early. But he may have a problem against Chunky.

DeGale is an aggressive boxer who’s good in cutting off the ring. He wears his opponent down with smart boxing and respectable power in his punches. DeGale has established himself as one of the best super middleweights in the world, if not the best. Although his record says he has one loss, that one was a debatable majority decision against George Groves in 2011.

More Complete Fighter

The oddsmakers like DeGale in this matchup and currently have him as a -300 favorite over Jack who is now at +250. The reason is DeGale is a more complete fighter than Jack. Aside from his more superior arsenal, DeGale is a very high IQ fighter who hasn’t shown too many weaknesses yet.

Compared to Jack, Chunky has been the more consistent fighter. Jack hasn’t won a clear fight since beating Francisco Sierra in 2014. His last three bouts against Anthony Dirrell, George Groves and Lucian Bute have ended in majority decision win, split decision win and split draw respectively. On the other hand, DeGale has stopped 14 of 23 opponents. His last three wins though have been by UD and considering Jack is no walk in the park, this one should be another 12 round win for James DeGale.