All posts by Chris Blain

UFC 207: Amanda Nunes vs. Ronda Rousey Odds and Prediction

Sports News & Picks, , ,

Ronda Rousey challenges Amanda Nunes for the UFC women’s bantamweight title at the main event of UFC 207 at Las Vegas’ T-Mobile Arena on December 30th. The Return is going to be a sight to see.

The Return

Fans have long waited for Ronda Rousey to return and she couldn’t have picked a better date than the promotion’s final event for 2016. Ronda Rousey was the star of stars in the UFC, dominating one opponent after another. The former Olympic Judo bronze medalist won her first twelve bouts by stoppage and nine of them by Armbar tap out. She was on the most dominating championship reign of all-time when Holly Holm knocked her out cold on her feet last year.

Since Rousey lost the belt, it has changed hands after every title bout. Holm was choked out by Miesha Tate at UFC 196, while Take was brutally stopped by Amanda Nunes at UFC 200. Now Nunes is saying that the title belt will remain around her waist for a long time. And based on her more recent outings, she may be correct.

A Powerful Striker

Nunes is known for her punching power and exquisite striking. She averages 4.23 significant strikes landed per minute. On the other hand, Rousey isn’t far behind at 4.05 per minute. Accuracy-wise, both fighters have a similar 52% striking accuracy. The difference between the two, however, is with the strikes absorbed per minute. Rousey take 3.6 strikes per minute while Nunes is hit with just 2.81. Converted to a five round bout, that’s an estimated 13.75 significant strikes. That would be more than enough strikes for Amanda Nunes to knock you out.

On the ground, Rousey is known to be a beast with 6.43 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. Rowdy also averages 4.9 submission attempts per 15 minutes. Both numbers are pretty well better than Nunes’ stats and will be what Ronda’s going to do to beat her opponent. Taking Nunes down may not be easy. Not only is she an excellent striker, she also has an excellent 73% takedown defense. As a comparison, Holly Holm had a 77% takedown defense when she fought Ronda Rousey and the latter couldn’t take her down.

Question Marks

At her best, Ronda Rousey is one of the most dominant female mixed martial artists of her era. But it’s been over a year since she last fought inside the octagon. The last time out, she suffered a shocking loss to Holly Holm at UFC 193. Since that loss, she’s withdrawn from the limelight and has contemplated retirement and worse, suicide. She says she’s over those negative emotions now and that it’s time to get her old belt back. Getting back to dominant Ronda may not be easy. Facing an opponent who’s undoubtedly in the best stretch of her fighting career adds pressure to that. With all the question marks surrounding Rousey’s return and given Nunes’ hot streak, it’s hard not to place your bets on the plus money for Nunes.

Currently Rousey is a -160 favorite while Nunes is a surprise +140 on many books. That’s interesting, considering Ronda’s been out of circulation for over a year and Nunes has been beating top level opposition. But we know Ronda’s a popular girl so the lines aren’t unexpected at all. However, we know Nunes is going to give Rousey the fight of her life. If Ronda had all sorts of problems with a great striker like Holly Holm, she may be in for a rude awakening against Amanda Nunes. Needless to say, there is enough logic here to have me pick Amanda Nunes to win by knockout.

UFC 207: Dominick Cruz vs. Cody Garbrandt Odds and Prediction

Sports News & Picks, , , , , ,

UFC bantamweight champion Dominick Cruz takes on the dangerous Cory Garbrandt at the co-main event of UFC 207 on December 30th, 2016 at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. The return of Ronda Rousey should continue to dominate headlines, but it’s quite arguable this is actually the title fight die hard MMA fans will be looking forward to.

Dominator

Known as the Dominator, Dominick Cruz has long been the barometer of the bantamweight division. However, successive knee injuries forced him to relinquish his title in 2014. And after several failed comeback attempts, Cruz made a successful return to the top of the division with a close decision win over T.J. Dillashaw in January of this year. Dom went on to successfully defend the belt with an easy decision win over Urijah Faber at UFC 199.

Cruz’s opponent is a product of Faber’s Team Alpha Male. Cory Garbrandt has been knocking out opponent after opponent to earn his first title shot. The 25-year old Ohio native has knocked out 9 of 10 opponents in an unbeaten MMA career. Garbrandt has knocked out his last three opponents in the first round. In his most recent fight, he stopped Takeya Mizugaki in the opening minute of their bout. Garbrandt has the power to knockout any opponent. But he has never faced one quite like Dominick Cruz.

Evasion over Aggression

The champion opened as a more than 2-1 favorite at -225. The lines haven’t changed much at -220 for Dom and +180 for Cory Garbrandt. Dominick Cruz is hard to hit but he isn’t unhittable. And it only takes a few punches from Cory Garbrandt to knock the living daylights out of you. So, you can’t really say No Love has no chance. But if Garbrandt can’t connect early or score that dreaded first round KO, it’s hard to imagine him going five rounds with a maestro. Garbrandt has never seen a round 4 or 5 before and Cruz is going to show him what they’re like.

Cruz will dictate this fight with his angles. He is going to stick and move and make Garbrandt miss like he’s never missed before. In short, Cory Garbrandt’s aggression may be no match for Dom’s evasion. And not only is Cruz going to make him miss, but the Dominator is going to counter him all night, as well. Cory may be powerful but T.J. Dillashaw is much quicker and faster. If Cruz beat a prime T.J. Dillashaw, there is no doubt he is going to school Cory Garbrandt. After a wild first round, it an easy decision win here for Dominick Cruz. He’s got to change his monicker though from Dominator to Decisionator.

UFC on Fox 22: Sage Northcutt vs. Mickey Gall Odds and Prediction

Sports News & Picks, , , , ,

Mickey Gall gets his wish, once again.

After getting the CM Punk fight, promotional newcomer Mickey Gall gets rewarded after a rousing victory with another wish granted. This time around, Gall got a positive reply for his demand to fight fellow newcomer Sage Northcutt. The two young prospects will battle it out in a three round welterweight bout set for UFC on Fox 22 on December 17th at the Golden1 Center in Sacramento, California.

Hype Stopper

We all know Mickey Gall as the man who halted the CM Punk hype train the UFC was building up for the last two years. Gall walked away unscathed after stopping Punk in less than one round at UFC 203. Following the victory, Gall immediately called out another ‘hype train’ in Sage Northcutt.

After a back and forth war of words, the UFC made the bout official. Now both prospects will fight in a bout that will separate the men from the boys. For Gall, it will be another opportunity to halt another high profile opponent and earn the right to be called the UFC’s hype stopper.

Super Sage

The UFC has been trying desperately to build-up the young, super athletic and good looking Northcutt. The only 20-year old Super Sage compiled an unbeaten 5-0 record at the Legacy FC promotion before moving over to the UFC in 2015. Northcutt earned some raves after two stoppage victories in his first two UFC bouts. But he suffered a rude awakening when he was submitted by little known Bryan Barbarena during his welterweight debut at UFC on Fox 18. He bounced back with an unimpressive win over Enrique Marin at UFC 200.

No Pushover

Bein the ‘bigger’ name, Northcutt is a -170 favorite over Gall who is at +140. Like Northcutt, Mickey Gall may be a newcomer in the UFC but he is no slouch. Gall is a very active fighter who has an excellent ground game. He’s fought only thrice as a mixer martial artist, two in the UFC, and has won all three bouts by rear naked choke submission. Aside from his noticeable ground game, we don’t know what else Mickey Gall has or how he does in a stand-up battle.

Northcutt will have the clear advantage on his feet. His unorthodox striking and range is not a mystery. If he keeps the fight up, he’s got a solid chance of winning. Unfortunately, his takedown defense of 46% is bad against a guy with a solid ground game like Gall. Gall is a legit BJJ brown belt and will likely take the fight to the ground, as he always does. If Gall doesn’t submit Northcutt early, he’ll tire him to the finish as Northcutt is notorious for a short gas tank. Mickey Gall by submission here.

Boxing Betting: Bernard Hopkins vs. Joe Smith Jr. Odds and Prediction

Sports News & Picks, , ,

Bernard Hopkins takes the boxing ring one final time before hanging up his gloves. The Executioner (or The Alien) faces 27-year old Joe Smith Jr. in a featured 12-rounder on December 17th at the Forum in Inglewood, California.

Leaving Legend

The 51-year old Hopkins has declared that this will be the final bout of a storied boxing career that saw him reign as world middleweight champion from 1994-2005, making an unprecedented 20 consecutive title defenses over that period. After losing his middleweight titles to Jermain Taylor, Hopkins won the light heavyweight title on several occassions.

At age 46, Hopkins became the oldest fighter to win a world title when he beat Jean Pascal. In 2013 and 2014, Hopkins broke his own record by winning two more world titles, one in each year. In his most recent bout, Hopkins lost his world titles to Sergey Kovalev.

The Irish Bomber

Known as the Irish Bomber, Joe Smith Jr. is on a roll with 16 consecutive victories and has six knockouts in his last seven victories. Smith is coming off the biggest win of his career, a stunning first round knockout of Andrzej Fonfara last June. Despite being a +1200 underdog to win that fight, Smith pulled of what could very well be boxing’s Upset of the Year for 2016. The Long Island, New York native is the current WBC international heavyweight champion. This will be Smith’s first fight in California.

Surprising Favorite

Despite a rather disappointing performance in a loss to Kovalev, Hopkins is a surprising -255 favorite over Smith who is at +215. What makes it more interesting is the fact that Hopkins isn’t just the much older man at 51, but he hasn’t fought since losing to Kovalev in November 2014.

There is no doubt that Hopkins is the much smarter boxer in this bout, but his level of performance has gradually dropped with age. Against Smith, Hopkins won’t be just facing an opponent half his age but also a fighter who mixes solid combinations with a vicious right hand. The only downside with Smith is he hasn’t faced too many quality level oppositions in his career. However, if the fight against Fonfara is an indication, Smith may be ready to take the big stage and retire Hopkins for good.

Bernard Hopkins is the name that rings a bell in this bout and it would be great to see him to leave with a fairy tale ending. But take away the nostalgia, the value is with Smith because of the plus money. Given Hopkins age and idle time, coupled with Smith’s streak and one punch knockout power, this could turn out ugly in an instant. Just ask Fonfara. Joe Smith Jr. by knockout in the first half of the bout.

UFC 206: Max Holloway vs. Anthony Pettis Odds and Prediction

Sports News & Picks, , , , , , ,

UFC 206 lost its original main event after light heavyweight champ Daniel Cormier pulled out of the event with an injury. Good thing UFC 206 already had a marquee featherweight bout as co-main event. That featherweight scrap is now promoted to main event status, and it may even turn out to be a better fight than Cormier vs. Johnson.

Interim Title Bout

With Conor McGregor relinquishing (or getting stripped, whichever you want to believe) the title he won with his 13-second destruction of Jose Aldo last year, the UFC has promoted the Max Holloway – Anthony Pettis showdown to an interim title bout. And for Max Holloway, it’s getting the title shot that he’s earned through the years.

After starting his UFC career with a modest 3-3 record, Holloway has blossomed into one of the most dangerous fighters in the UFC’s 145-pound weight class. Since losing to Conor McGregor in 2013, Holloway has racked up an impressive 9-consecutive wins to become the division’s 2nd ranked contender. During this winning run, “Blessed” has beaten Top 10 contenders Cub Swanson, Charles Oliveira and Jeremy Stephens.

Second Lease on Life

Anthony Pettis, meanwhile, has found a new lease on his UFC life at a new weight class. Following three straight losses to Rafael Dos Anjos, Eddie Alvarez and Edson Barboza, “Showtime” bounced back with an impressive 3rd round submission win in featherweight debut against submission master Charles Oliveira. The win immediately put Pettis at #5 in the UFC’s official Featherweight rankings and put him in a position to fight for the title.

The stakes are high for this bout, as the winner will face newly promoted champion Jose Aldo for the undisputed UFC Featherweight title sometime in the near future. And if you’re looking for a dog fight, it can’t get any better than this.

Blessed Over Showtime

Holloway opened as a -185 favorite against Pettis’ +145 when the betting lines for this bout opened. As of the latest UFC 206 odds (12.2.16), Pettis has narrowed the gap at +130 for him and -160 for Holloway. The odds are -160 that this fight goes the distance while it’s +160 that it doesn’t. These make Pettis-Holloway a tough fight to fight to predict, but it’s definitely going to be a exciting striking battle between two of the sport’s premier strikers.

Pettis has excellent Brazilian Jiu Jitsu and Taekwondo background. He is good with his hands as he is with his feet. His unique and uncanny striking ability makes him an exciting fighter to watch. Holloway too is adept on his feet. Blessed knows how to pick his shots and when he lands, he does so cleanly and effectively. Just watch his UFC 199 bout against Ricardo Lamas and you can see how good Holloway has become. With both fighters preferring to fight on their feet, this could end up as one of the better fights of the year.

Pettis has a three inch reach advantage while Holloway is an inch taller and four year younger. Offensively, Holloway lands 3.07 more strikes lander per minute but absorbs 1.36 more per 60 seconds. Pettis’ 57% striking defense may be too lax against a surging Holloway. Pettis looked good against Barboza in his featherweight debut but we don’t know what the long term effects of the weight class drop would be. Holloway’s been at featherweight forever and he will be more effective in a five round war. We’re picking Max Holloway to win by unanimous decision or late stoppage.

UFC 206: Donald Cerrone vs. Matt Brown Odds and Prediction

Sports News & Picks, , , , ,

Barring any fight week shocker, Donald Cerrone’s finally going to fight.

First it was his original UFC 205 opponent Robbie Lawler who pulled out of their high profile bout. Then replacement opponent Kelvin Gastelum missed weight badly and was unceremoniously removed from UFC 205. The result? Cerrone was left without an opponent and a fight at the UFC’s historic Madison Square Garden debut.  The UFC then rescheduled Cerrone with a fight at the next event- UFC 206 in Canada. And Cowboy’s consolation prize? The Immortal Matt Brown.

Legit Welterweight

2016 has been a new beginning for Donald Cerrone. After failing to win the UFC Lightweight title from Rafael Dos Anjos at UFC on Fox 17th last December, Cerrone made the move to welterweight. While some quarters questioned his decision to go up to the 170 pound division, Cowboy has proved himself as a legitimate welterweight. Three straight stoppage wins over Alex Oliveira, Patrick Cote and Rick Story have put Cowboy to #5 in the welterweight rankings.

After seven straight wins in the UFC, Matt Brown has struggled fighting against the promotion’s top rated welterweights. Losses to Johny Hendricks, Robbie Lawler, Demian Maia and Jake Ellenberger have given the Immortal a 1-4 record in his last five bouts and has dropped him to #14 in the rankings. With his UFC career seemingly on the line, Matt Brown will have to bring out his A game to halt the streaking Cowboy.

No Longer Immortal

While Donald Cerrone is on his way up the welterweight ladder, Matt Brown has been there but no longer there. As we said earlier, he’s lost 4 of 5 and his UFC career may be dependent on what happens in this fight. In his most recent fight, Brown was knocked out by Jake Ellenberger in the first round. But more than another defeat, Brown fought so lackluster that we wonder what’s left in his tank. One thing is certain though, Brown is no longer immortal. The clock may be ticking on him and this could be the ‘passing of the torch’ kind of fight.

Cerrone is the bookmakers’ favorite to beat Brown. Cowboy is currently a -270 favorite over Brown who is at +205 . Despite being on a losing skid, Matt Brown is fairly a better striker than Cowboy, at least that’s what the stats say. While Cowboy lands more significant strikes per minute at 4.1 vs 3.62, Brown is the more accurate striker at 53% striking accuracy against Cerrone’s 48%. Defensively, Brown absorbs less strikes per minute at 2.46 versus 3.81 for Cowboy.

Outside the numbers though, Cerrone’s recent stoppage wins over Patrick Cote and Rick Story make us wonder if Brown’s statistical advantages will hold at UFC 206. Cerrone has looked invincible lately and he seems to be in a better place physically, mentally and stylistically than Matt Brown. In what looks to be an offensive showdown, Matt Brown cannot outgun Donald Cerrone as Cowboy simply has too many weapons to beat him. Look for Donald Cerrone to win by unanimous decision or a third round submission.

WBA Featherweight Title Preview: Jesus Cuellar vs. Abner Mares Odds And Prediction

Sports News & Picks, , , , , ,

You can’t really keep a good fight from happening.

Take Two

Jesus Cuellar and Abner Mares will be fighting six months after they were originally scheduled to face each other. That bout was scrapped because Mares failed to get a medical clearance in New York due to a 2008 eye injury. With Mares cleared by the California State Athletic Commission, the two will headline Showtime’s December 20th event at the Galen Center in Los Angeles, California.

Three division champion Mares ( 29-2-1 with 15 KOs) hasn’t had a big victory since knocking out Daniel Ponce De Leon in 2013. In fact, Mares is coming off a close but clear unanimous decision loss to Leo Santa Cruz in last year’s Battle of Los Angeles. Cuellar (28-1 with 21 KOs), the hard hitting Argentine, hasn’t lost a bout since 2011 and will be making the sixth defense of the WBA (regular) Featherweight title which he won in 2013. The only blot on his record is a 7th round KO loss to Oscar Escandon in 2011.

High Output Fighters

Mares is known to be a pressure fighter who likes to keep himself busy in the ring throwing lots of punches. Not only that, he also works the body well and lands at a good 34% of his total punches. But if Mares throws a lot at 652 punches thrown per fight, Cuellar is surprisingly a busier fighter with an average of 716 punches thrown per bout. He isn’t as accurate thought at 24.4% but between him and Mares, the Argentine southpaw is the heavier hitter.

The concern with Mares is that he lets himself take unnecessary blows, as in his fight with Jhonny Gonzalez where he lost by KO. He can’t afford those same mistakes against the hard hitting Cuellar who will be looking to chop his head off. Cuellar has a two inch reach and a one and a half height advantage over Mares. Mares however has the edge in experience and level of competition faced. In the end though, this could go down to Cuellar’s power.

Who Wins?

This is and even fight with both fighters currently pegged at -110 according to several gambling sites.

Mares is a crafty veteran who has been in some big wars and finds ways to win. Cuellar is an untested heavy hitter with a lot of potential. Both are coming off long layoffs after the postponement of their bout and ring rust will come to play here.

Given their recent showings, Cuellar’s combination of power and speed may be too much for Mares. He may be wild sometimes with his haymakers but against a guy like Mares who isn’t hard to hit, he will connect and Mares will feel his power. We’re picking Jesus Cuellar to win by KO in the second half of the bout.

UFC 206 Preview: Daniel Cormier vs. Anthony Johnson Odds and Pick

Sports News & Picks, , ,

With Jon Jones at bay because of a recent drug suspension, the UFC’s next best Light Heavyweights will dispute the 205-pound title at the main event of UFC 206 at the Air Canada Centre in Toronto, Ontario, Canada.

The Rematch

Current champion Daniel Cormier was supposed to fight Jones for the undisputed title at UFC 200 but in his latest brush with the law, Jones got pulled from the bout and is currently facing a one-year suspension for a drug violation. Instead, Cormier will be facing the red hot Anthony Johnson, who has been knocking out one contender after the other.

This will not be the first time Cormier and Johnson face each other. DC won his current title by defeating Johnson at UFC 187. The two fought for the title which was vacated when Jones was first suspended by the UFC in 2015.

Roles Reversed

DC is -135 in many books while Rumble is popular at +115. This is opposite the numbers they had when they first faced each other at UFC 187 where Rumble closed at -120 and DC at +100. Rumble Johnson was on a nine fight winning streak ( 6 by knockout ) coming to UFC 187. But after Cormier humbled him with a punishing wrestling game, the tides have been turned.

Cormier has fought twice since beating Johnson. He defeated Alexander Gustafsson by split decision and then dominated Anderson Silva in a catchweight bout at UFC 200. Rumble’s coming off knockout wins over Jimi Manuwa, Ryan Bader and Glover Teixeira. His last two wins have been by first round KO. In 27 fights, Johnson has never gone past round three.

Grounding Rumble

Cormier has said in interviews that he is going to stand and trade with Rumble Johnson this time around. You bet Cormier didn’t mean those words because obliging Rumble in a slugfest would be a death wish. Daniel Cormier has proven to have a good chin. But it’s never wise to have it tested against Rumble Johnson. For Sure DC will go back to his wrestling base in this bout. Just like how he dominated Rumble at UFC 187.

Although he landed only three takedowns in their first bout, DC attempted eight times, meaning he really tried to put the fight on the ground. Those takedowns and attempts took its toll on Rumble and negated his strengths. He became a lame duck on the ground and that led to the rear naked choke finish by Cormier in round three. Rumble Johnson will either have to knock out DC first or take him down first. The latter seems likely. Cormier’s wrestling will be the key here once again. He’s going to grind Rumble to the finish. We expect another late submission victory or a close but clear 3-2 win on the scorecards for Daniel Cormier.

WBO Super Featherweight Preview: Vasyl Lomachenko vs. Nicholas Walters Odds and Pick

Sports News & Picks, , , , ,

Vasyl Lomachenko continues his quest for greatness as he defends his WBO Super Featherweight championship against former featherweight champion  Nicholas Walters on November 26th, 2016 at the Cosmopolitan in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Greatest Amateur Boxer Ever

Lomachenko enters the fight with a deceptive 6-1 professional record, but behind that seemingly inexperienced resume is who many consider to be the greatest amateur fighter of all-time.

A back to back Olympic gold medalist in 2008 and 2012, Lomachenko also won consecutive gold medals in the World Championships in 2009 and 2011. The 28-year old Ukrainian finished his amateur career with a sensational 396-1 record with his only defeat to Albert Selimov avenged twice.

Since turning pro, Lomachenko has fought in a total of six world title bouts, losing once to Orlando Salido in his first attempt at a world title. Since that defeat, Loma’s won five bouts in a row against rapidly increasing level of opposition He’s captured two world titles in two different weight classes and is coming off a 5th round KO of Roman Martinez last June.

Axe Man

Nicholas Walters will be looking to win his second world title in as many weight classes. Known as the Axe Man, the Jamaican slugger is unbeaten in 27 bouts with 26 wins, 1 draw and 21 wins by knockout. After losing his title on the scales during his fight with Miguel Marriaga in June, Walters has moved up in weight. He was ‘robbed’ with a draw in his super featherweight debut against Jason Sosa. But that did not stop him from pursuing a bout with the great Lomachenko.

Not A Mismatch

Lomachenko is a big -500 favorite over Walters who is at +400 in many sports books. But don’t let the numbers think this is going to be a mismatch. Walters is a legit foe and has exceptional athleticism and overall punching power. He has fast hands, quick feet and has finished all but two of his last eleven opponents. He’s proven that he can take care of a good technical boxer when he knocked out Nonito Donaire in 2014. Against Lomachenko though, he must be wary with counters as his defense has a tendency to slip at times. An interesting fact here is that this will be Walters’ first bout in Las Vegas.

Total Package

Lomachenko is the total package. Not only does he possess a high level boxing IQ, he also has excellent defense. Like Walters, he has quick hands and feet. Between them though, he has the better combinations and is the smarter counter puncher.

Coincidentally, both fighters have a similar connect percentage of 37.9% ( Per Compubox ) but Lomachenko has more output per fight at 177.4 punches landed per fight against Walters’ 159.6. But while they don’t have much difference in offensive numbers, Lomachenko’s defensive prowess stands out. Lomachenko’s opponents only land 16.4% of their punches on him while Walters allows a higher 21.5% Both numbers are good really but in a chess match like this, that could spell the difference.

Who Wins

Given his attributes, it hard not to look at Walters at +400. He may be the smarter bet if you want to gamble. But in the end, it’s likely Lomachenko who gets the victory here. Loma’s just too smart a boxer against Walters. He can adjust his game plan in between rounds and has too many ways to win bouts. Walters only knows one way to fight and that ram right through his opponents. He’s moving up in weight and may not be as powerful as he was in the lower ranks. Having said that, if you’re betting to win go with Lomachenko here.

UFC Fight Night Melbourne: Robert Whitaker vs. Derek Brunson Odds and Pick

Sports News & Picks, , , , , , , ,

With Luke Rockhold pulling out, UFC Fight Night Melbourne got a new main event. And good for the fans, one of their own will be fighting in the headliner of this November 26th event.

7th ranked Robert Whitaker faces #8 Derek Brunson in a battle of middleweight dark horses. With the likes of Rockhold, Yoel Romero and Jacare Souza getting more attention, these two fighters are probably the sleepers in Michael Bisping’s weight class. While not much attention given to them, these two have slowly built serious reputation in one of the UFC’s most talent laden division. The winner of this bout is definitely headed for bigger fights while the loser goes back to scratch.

Too Close To Call?

Derek Brunson is the favorite at -150. Robert Whitaker is pegged at +125, so this is basically a pick’em bout. Both fighters are riding high on a five-fight winning streak, but Brunson has been more impressive with four consecutive first round knockout victories.

After being known as a grinding wrestler early in his career, Derek Brunson has developed his striking skills. In fact, he’s evolved into a serious knockout artist and his current winning run is proof of that. Whitaker also possesses heavy hands, but in terms of genuine, one-punch knockout ability, it’s Brunson who has the edge.

Brunson’s Advantages

Whitaker is the busier striker with a 4.95 significant strikes landed per minute average as compared to Brunson’s 2.94. But he also absorbs more strikes per minute at 4.07 versus Brunson’s 2.24. Both are nearly as accurate with their striking with Brunson having a 44% to 40% advantage. But the key in this fight should be Brunson’s length. The American has a significant 4-inch reach advantage over his opponent.

Derek Brunson’s Division II NCAA wrestling background gives him another edge over Whitaker. He averages 3.58 takedowns landed per 15 minutes while Whitaker only lands 0.61 over the same period. Whitaker though has significantly improved his takedown defense in recent years. He’s given up only one takedown in his last five bouts. But if this fight goes to the ground, it’s definitely the more experienced Brunson who has the edge.

Whitaker vs. Brunson Prediction

What’s going for Whitaker though is the fact that this fight is in Australia. Fighting in front of his home crowd has brought out the best of Whitaker. In his UFC career, Whitaker is 4-0 in Australia and that includes his The Ultimate Fighter Smashes victory in 2012. Both fighters have significantly improved from the first time we saw them compete inside the Octagon. But at this stage of their careers, Derek Brunson is the more complete fighter. Whitaker is going to make this a good fight. But Brunson’s power is going to win this for him.