So, it’s final: Chad Mendes will face Conor McGregor for the interim UFC featherweight title at the main event of UFC 189 on Saturday at the MGM Grand Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Not the Fight Expected

This was not the fight that the world wanted to see on July 11th because we were all hoping to see Brazilian Jose Aldo defend his UFC featherweight strap against the Irish trash talker Conor McGregor in the culmination of the UFC’s 2015 International Fight Week.

Unfortunately Aldo suffered a rib injury and had to pull out of the title fight. The UFC put #2 ranked featherweight Chad Mendes as standby opponent, hoping that Aldo would heal on time. But that was not meant to be, and what was supposed to be the biggest fight of the year has turned into an enigmatic matchup which could exceed our expectations.

Money Talks

The fact that Chad Mendes agreed to take this fight before even asking his pay, not to mention the fact that he took it in two weeks notice, shows how badly Chad “Money” Mendes wants to win that title. And why not? Mendes has lost twice in his attempt to wrest the belt away from Aldo and with a lot of contenders climbing up the ladder, this title shot was a gift of sorts.

Mendes has vowed to finish-off McGregor in three rounds and has not forgotten the insults on his height made by the brash Irishman last year. McGregor has continued to discount Mendes as a “replacement B-level fighter” who is nothing but a stepping stone to his greatness. McGregor likewise predicted that he will tire out Mendes before taking him lights out.

Who Takes This?

When it was first announced that Chad Mendes would likely take over Jose Aldo’s spot in the main event of UFC 189, he was installed as the favorite when the betting lines opened. The reason was because of Mendes’ wrestling base which experts felt will give McGregor a lot of problems. But as the scrap was finalized, McGregor slowly settled as the slight favorite at -160 while Mendes a very live underdog at +130.

If Aldo-McGregor was going to be a straight-up striking duel, Mendes will most definitely take McGregor to the ground because his ground defense is suspect. In recent interviews, Mendes said that he intends to strike with McGregor for one round to let the Irishman feel his power. From there, he plans on taking the fight to the ground and submitting McGregor.

But that is easier said than done against McGregor, who’s knocked out his last three opponents and four out of five overall in his UFC career. McGregor hasn’t lost in 13 fights and has been on a unparalleled run to fame. It remains to be seen how the change of opponents has affected his preparation and mindset coming to Saturday.

If Mendes does indeed hurt McGregor with his first punch, then we might be in for a surprise from Chad Mendes. Otherwise, Conor McGregor will just continue his march to the title and lead the Irish Invasion of the UFC.

*photo via via sherdog.com

After injuries have cost the UFC several main event bouts this year, they aren’t taking any chances with UFC 189.

Setting up Plan B

After news of UFC featherweight champion Jose Aldo breaking a rib during training broke out last week, the UFC was once again put in scramble mode. However, after confirming that Aldo only suffered a bruised rib following a wayward kick in sparring, UFC President Dana White declared that the UFC 189 main event between Aldo and #3 ranked contender Conor McGregor will push thru as scheduled. And while Aldo has also stated that he has every intention to fight McGregor on July 11, the UFC has set up an insurance policy.

#1 ranked featherweight Chad Mendes has agreed to be the back-up fighter and will fight McGregor on short notice for the interim featherweight crown if Aldo is unable to compete. Mendes took a flight to Las Vegas last Wednesday to finalize the deal. As part of the agreement, the UFC also announced that Mendes will be paid whether he will actually fight McGregor or not.

Money over McGregor

Aldo opened as a slight -140 favorite when the betting lines opened but after news of his injury, Aldo has dropped to as high as a +118 underdog in some books. On the other hand, McGregor is currently going as a -120 favorite to dethrone the injured Brazilian champion. However, the same cannot be said if McGregor will be facing Mendes instead of Jose Aldo.

As soon as he was named as the stand-by guy, Mendes opened as a -130 favorite over McGregor who was at +100. The reason for this is because of Mendes’ fighting style. An Aldo-McGregor bout would have been a striking duel between two of the best strikers in the featherweight division but a McGregor-Mendes bout could end up in the ground because of Mendes’ elite wrestling background, not to mention his punching power.

Who takes it?

Aldo-McGregor would be a pick ‘em fight right now because of Aldo’s injury. It’s not certain what the champion has done, if at all, while recuperating and he will not be physically 100% in two weeks’ time. However, if this goes down to Mendes against McGregor, the back-up guy may be the better pick.

Mendes is a former NCAA All-American wrestler at Cal-Poly and will be the first true wrestler McGregor has ever fought. Mendes has fought Aldo twice for the title, losing the first by KO and then taking Aldo to the limit in their rematch at UFC 179 which was later named as Fight of the Year. Aldo was no match for Mendes on the ground and Mendes became the first fighter to drop Aldo. Although he lost the rematch, it was close and could have gone either way. McGregor is an elite striker but the big question mark is if he can fight on his back. Remember that Chris Weidman put away Vitor Belfort easily after taking the Phenom to the ground. Like Mendes, Weidman was a former NCAA All-American wrestler who faced one of the best strikers in the history of the sport in Belfort.

Another household name in the UFC is going to the “other” backyard.

A New Home

Bellator MMA announced last Friday that they have signed resident UFC welterweight fighter Josh Koschek. The 37-year old Koschek is one of the longest-tenured fighters in the UFC, having made his Octagon debut at finale of The Ultimate Fighter 1 back in April of 2005. He fought a total of 25 times inside the Octagon and had a UFC record of 15-10 with 5 knockouts and 4 submissions.

Koschek reached his peak when he challenged Georges St. Pierre for the UFC Welterweight title at UFC 124 in 2010. Although Koschek lost that bout, it won Fight of The Night honors. Koschek holds notable wins over Diego Sanchez, Anthony Johnson and the legendary Matt Hughes. However, Koschek had lost his last five bouts including a first round submission defeat against Erick Silva last March. There were rumors that he was going to retire, but with his latest move it looks as if he is looking for one final shot at glory in a new home.

Going After Rival

Although Bellator didn’t give a date or opponent for Koschek’s promotional debut and return to Spike TV, fight experts and fans alike are pointing their fingers at old rival Paul Daley. It can be recalled that Koschek and Daley fought for the UFC welterweight title eliminator at UFC 113 in 2010 in the bout that led to his only title shot at the UFC. Koschek used his superior wrestling skills to dominate Daley and earn a clear unanimous decision victory. However, controversy erupted after the fighters were referee after the final bell when Daley punched Koschek in the face.

Immediately after that fight, UFC President Dana White announced a lifetime ban on Paul Daley saying that Daley’s action was inexcusable in the UFC. Daley would go on to fight in various MMA organizations before settling down with Strikeforce, where he would get a title shot against Nick Diaz in 2011. After the merger of Strikeforce and the UFC, Daley went on to fight for independent promotions before signing with Bellator for a second tour of duty last July. He was expected to challenge Bellator Welterweight Champion Douglas Lima at Bellator 134 last February 2015 but ended up beating Andre Santos after Lima pulled out of the fight with an injury.

Koschek vs Daley?

Koschek vs. Daley would sound like a blast from the past fight but with the success of Bellator 139 which was headlined by Kimbo Slice and Ken Shamrock who were two old rivals, Bellator could be looking at Koschek vs. Daley 2 in the near future. Koschek may have lost 5 in a row but he is still a dangerous opponent and a huge draw. On the other hand, the 32-year old Daley has missed weight in 6 of his last 14 bouts so if there’s one issue that has to be settled before this fight can be made, it should be the weight at which the bout is to be fought. Other than that, this should be an exciting fight although it may no longer have title implications.

*photo from urdirt.com.

Gilbert Melendez wants to get off the loser’s side so bad that he agreed to take a fight against just four days after his UFC 188 loss to Eddie Alvarez. And that’s not the end of it because the fight will be on July 15th.

In A Tough Stretch

After a dominant run at the Strikeforce promotion where he went 8-1 and won the Strikeforce lightweight title two times, Gilbert Melendez has had a tough stretch in the UFC where he’s been just 1-3. Two of those losses were for the UFC lightweight title though but two of those losses were also by narrow split decision, including the last one to Eddie Alvarez last June 13th at the co-main event of UFC 188. At age 33 and a new breed of fighters entering the lightweight title picture, it’s got to be now or never for Gilbert “El Nino” Melendez.

The New Breed

Talking about the new breed, “Raging” Al Iaquinta has been red hot lately winning his last four fights, including three by knockout. Iaquinta has gone 7-1 since 2013 with his only loss a technical submission defeat at the hands of Mitch Clarke at UFC 174. Ranked #13 by the UFC, Iaquinta is considered as one of the up and coming fighters at the 155 pound weight class. He was supposed to take on #11 ranked Bobby Green on July 15th, 2015 at UFC Fight Night 71 but Green pulled out due to an injury. Instead, he will get the opportunity to shoot up in the rankings by facing the #5 ranked Melendez at the Valley View Casino Center in San Diego, California.

Not a Walk in the Park

Iaquinta has lived up to his nickname “raging” lately as he knocked out Rodrigo Damm, Ross Pearson and Joe Lauzon in succession. But with his last outing against Jorge Masvidal at UFC Fight Night 53 ended in a controversial split decision, Iaquinta hopes to erase all doubts with a big win over Gilbert Melendez.

That won’t be a walk in the park though as Melendez remains one of the best fighters in his weight class despite going 1-3 in his last four fights. Remember that two of those fights were title fights and all three defeats were against former lightweight champions of major promotions. Without doubt, Melendez will be the toughest opponent Iaqunita has ever faced and it’s interesting to see if he can step up to the plate.

Last Shot at Glory

While Iaquinta is facing a high risk opponent, Melendez may be at a crossroads. He’s seen it all inside the cage and he’s won it all except the UFC strap. A win will put him right back on the title hunt but a loss could shut the door on MMA’s ultimate prize. In short, this could be Melendez’s last shot at glory and he is expected to go all out on July 15.

Melendez-Iaquinta will be the co-main event of UFC Fight Night 71 which will be headlined by a heavyweight bout between Frank Mir and Todd Duffee.

Timothy Bradley says he is a risk-taker and despite having fought the biggest names already, he signed to fight dangerous Light Welterweight champion Jessie Vargas on Saturday night.

An Admirable Choice

Bradley’s willingness to face a hungry and unbeaten stud like Vargas is admirable in a time where his contemporaries like Amir Khan are carefully choosing opponents and schedules in the hopes of landing a fight with Floyd Mayweather Jr. Should Bradley lose against Vargas, it would be a big blow to his career since his last two bout have been a loss to Manny Pacquiao and a draw against Diego Chaves. On the other hand, Vargas has nothing to lose and everything to gain, even in a possible loss against one of the best welterweights in the planet.

Bradley was eyeing a title eliminator bout with Shawn Porter for the right to face Kell Brook. But because of the animosity between Bradley’s promoter Top Rank and Al Haymon who handles Porter, that proposal fell through. Porter ended up fighting Adrien Broner last weekend while Bradley will face Vargas on Saturday at the Stub Hub Center in Carson, California in what is now an interim title bout for the WBO welterweight championship.

Weight is a Factor

One of the key factors in this fight is weight because Jessie Vargas is a 140 pound champion moving up to welterweight to fight Timothy Bradley Jr. Vargas may be undefeated in 26 fights but he didn’t have the punching power at light welterweight as evidenced by his total of 9 career knockouts. Like Vargas, Bradley isn’t a known knockout artist with 12 knockouts in 31 victories. But against a kid moving up in weight and fighting at 147 pounds for the first time, he may carry a punch too big for Vargas.

Vargas though has looked good fight after fight and appeared really strong in his last outing against Antonio De Marco. But Bradley has been tested by the best of the best in the welterweight division. Bradley fought 12 rounds against Ruslan Provodnikov, Juan Manuel Marquez, Lamont Peterson and even 24 against Manny Pacquiao. He was never knocked down in any of those fights although he was rocked by Provodnikov.

Who Takes This?

Bradley is a 1/5 favorite against Vargas who is a 100/30 underdog. Aside from the advantage in weight, Bradley carries tons of championship experience to the fight. Vargas is a secondary title holder, but he’s not fought at the level that Bradley’s been at since 2008 and that may be his biggest problem.

Vargas needs to be very busy against a volume puncher like Bradley in order to out-point him. Without the knockout power, the only way to beat Bradley is to outwork him. But Bradley has the same foot and handspeed as Vargas and own a myriad of offensive moves that Vargas doesn’t have. In the end, Bradley’s ring savvy and experience may be too much for the young Vargas. Experts are picking Bradley to win by a wide unanimous decision.

Danny Garcia is moving up in weight to fight former two division world champion Paulie Malignaggi in a 12-round welterweight bout that will headline the second Premier Boxing Champions (PBC) on August 1st at the Barclays Center in New York, USA.

Promoter Lou DiBella, who made the official announcement last Monday in behalf of PBC founder Al Haymon, called the fight a “must-win for both fighters.”

Relinquishing His Throne

The unified Junior Welterweight champion avoided being stripped of his WBC Jr. Welterweight title by relinquishing the belt last Thursday. The WBC had obligated Garcia to make a mandatory defense against top contender Viktor Postol, but Garcia, who had trouble making the 140-pound limit in his recent fights, wasn’t keen on fighting again at Jr. Welterweight.

Garcia, who is also the WBA and lineal 140-pound champion, has not defended his titles since March of 2014. Instead, his last two fights have been two non-title bouts at a catch weight above 140 pounds. Garcia knocked out Rod Salka in the 2nd round of a 142-pound catch weight bout last August and then won a hard earned majority decision win over former Jr. Welterweight champion Lamont Peterson last April in a fight that was held at weight limit of 143 pounds.

Paulie’s Backyard

Malignaggi, a former Jr. welterweight and welterweight champion, was supposed to make his much awaited ring return in the undercard of the Khan-Algieri bout last May 29th but suffered a nasty cut one week before the scheduled bout and was forced to cancel that fight. Malignaggi has not fought since losing a title challenge against then IBF welterweight champion Shawn Porter in April of 2014.  The 34-year old Brooklyn native won the WBA Welterweight title in 2012 with a 9th round TKO win over Vyacheslav Senchenko. He lost the title a year later to Adrien Broner in a close split decision.

Malignaggi and Garcia fought on the same fight card in the first ever boxing event at the Barclays center in October 2012. Garcia was then making a Jr. Welterweight title defense against Erik Morales while Malignaggi was making the first and only defense of his WBA welterweight title. Although both are very popular fighters in the U.S. market, Garcia will be literally walking to Malignaggi’s backyard for this contest.

Joining the Big Boys

Garcia has long been rumored to be moving up in weight in search of bigger money fights. He’s been criticized for taking on light opposition in his recent bouts but fighting Malignaggi in his welterweight debut is definitely a step up in the level of opposition although Malignaggi may no longer be in his prime.

Boxing’s welterweight division is considered as the richest, with the #1 Pound for Pound fighter and PPV King Floyd Mayweather Jr. its top dog. The weight class is also home to top rated fighters like Manny Pacquiao, Amir Khan, Timothy Bradley, Marcos Maidana, Robert Guerrero, Shawn Porter, Keith Thurman and Adrien Broner.  If Garcia debuts in style, he is expected to tab a money-rich fight with one of those top names. On the other hand, Malignaggi is 1-2 in his last three bouts and needs a win to keep his once flamboyant career alive.

Cincinnati’s Adrien Broner will meet Cleveland’s Shawn Porter in what is billed as the Battle of Ohio. The bout will headline the latest boxing card of Al Haymon’s Premier Boxing Champions on Saturday at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Showtime versus Protégé

Porter (25-1-1 with 16 KOs), dubbed as Showtime for his high-octane offense, is a former welterweight champion who is coming off a March KO win over unheralded Erick Bone. The 27-year old Akron native won the IBF Welterweight title by defeating Devon Alexander in December of 2013 and lost it to Britain’s Kell Brook via Majority Decision during his 2nd title defense last August 16, 2014.

Broner (30-1 with KOs) meanwhile is the man-child protégé of Floyd Mayweather Jr. He is a former three time world champion who patterned his game from Mayweather whom he also calls “big brother”. Broner has won three fights in a row after suffering an upset loss to Marcos Maidana in December of 2013. He is looking to establish himself as a major player in boxing’s talent-laden welterweight class.

What the Odds Say

Porter opened as a -160 boxing betting favorite over Broner. But the odds are much closer now at -130 for Porter and +110 for Broner meaning that this fight is almost a 50/50 affair and rightfully so.

Porter is obviously better skilled and more experienced than Broner. He is a very powerful volume puncher much like Marcos Maidana, who dealt Broner his lone career loss in 2013. Maidana’s power and volume made Broner uncomfortable in their fight and the Argentine even dropped Broner twice en route to a unanimous decision win.  Compared to Porter, Maidana is a crude brawler which means Broner could in fact be “walking to the lion’s den” as how Porter described it.

There is a Catch

But then there’s a catch in the fight and it’s something that’s not been talked about much: the catchweight. This fight has a stipulated weight of 144 pounds which is to the advantage of Adrien Broner who is moving up in weight. Porter has fought as high as 154 pounds in 2010 and is a natural 147 pound fighter. Putting a catchweight of 3 pounds can be potentially draining for him. Just take a look back at what happened to Daniel Geale when he fought Miguel Cotto at 3 pounds less the weight class limit last month. This is where Broner hopes to capitalize with his speed and athleticism.

Other than that, the consensus pick is for Porter to win by decision. He may be drained and all but he’s got enough skill and experience to pull this one off against Broner who has not looked impressive in his last three outings. Broner has a tendency to showboat and be inactive during fights and that’s where Porter’s volume punching will rack up points for him. Broner is also a notoriously slow starter which could also backfire against a high-volume opponent like Porter. So assuming that the weight cut doesn’t deplete him, there is no reason for Porter to lose this fight although it will be competitive and close.

Deontay Wilder versus Eric Molina looks like David versus Goliath on paper, only that both Wilder and Molina are the size of Goliath.

Freakish Punching Power

Deontay Wilder brought back a piece of boxing’s heavyweight glory to America for the first time in nearly a decade after he defeated Canadian Bermane Stiverne last January 17th to wrest the WBC Heavyweight championship. And while owning the WBC strap didn’t make him the man to beat in boxing’s most popular weight class, holding on to it in his first title defense on June 13th at the Bartow Arena in Birmingham, Alabama should bridge a fight between him and the man universally recognized as the best heavyweight in the planet for decades: Wladimir Klitschko.

Wilder may not be the best at heavyweight right now, but he’s big, powerful, undefeated and has knocked out 32 of 33 opponents including 18 in the very first round. That raw punching power is hard to find these days, especially in the heavyweight division that has been dominated by the Klitschko brothers’ size and length in the last two decades.  It’s also that freakish power in his fists that fans come to see and which makes Wilder a relevant player in boxing’s heavyweight division.

An Unlikely Foe

Eric Molina isn’t exactly the kind of opponent who draws a lot of attention from the boxing public. Not much is known of Wilder’s challenger except that he is 23-2 with 17 KOs and that he was knocked out in the first round of his pro debut by Chris Arreola in 2012. Not many expected him to be the first guy to challenge Wilder, but after high profile fighters chose to stay away from the powerful Wilder, Molina returned the call and signed the deal, even if it will make him another victim in Wilder’s fight resume.

Molina’s last five opponents had a combined record of 108-82-7 and none is a name you may have heard of.  And while most are already counting him out, Molina believes that there is more to him than meets the eye. Molina believes that his losses have made him a better boxer and a worthy contender. He doesn’t care what others think of his chances against Wilder. All he knows is that it was too big an opportunity to make a pass on, even if it meant facing a beast inside the ring.

Who Takes This?

Regardless of what Molina thinks and feels, he is a huge 50-1 underdog in this fight. He hasn’t beaten a Top 10 heavyweight yet, nor has he even faced one. Molina does have the knockouts in his resume, but it’s unsure if his punching power will be felt by a much bigger guy than him in Wilder. A more pressing point is how he’ll take the punch of Wilder because if you ask history, it says 96.9% of his opponents have kissed the canvass in defeat. But remember also that this is heavyweight boxing, where one punch changes everything, so don’t count Molina out yet.

However, conventional wisdom says Wilder is going to have a coming out party. There is a lot of pressure to win big in front of the hometown fans and Wilder is ready for the challenge. This should be quick and brutal. In most probability, Wilder will get KO #33 on Saturday night.

Fireworks are expected this Saturday as UFC Heavyweight champion Cain Velasquez battles interim UFC heavyweight title holder Fabricio Werdum in what is literally the biggest match of the year inside the Octagon at UFC 188.

Return of Cain

Cain Velasquez has been the most dominant UFC champion in recent memory. His two one-sided victories over rival and former UFC heavyweight champion Junior Dos Santos proved that he is a cut above the rest. His triumphs over the likes of Ben Rothwell, Antonio Silva (twice), Antonio Rodrigo Noguiera and Brock Lesnar among others are not an easy feat. Knocking out all four within two rounds makes it very impressive, as well.

Velasquez could very well be on his way to becoming the greatest UFC heavyweight champion of All-time, but he’s got to put in more fights on his resume. The American Kickboxing Academy standout has fought just five times since winning the UFC heavyweight title in 2010, going 4-1 with 3 KOs during that period with his only loss the 2011 knockout to Dos Santos in their first fight. Since coming to the UFC in 2008, Velasquez has fought just 12 times or an average of 1.5 per year because of injuries. So for him to become the best ever, he’s got to stay healthy and be active. That’s got to start on Saturday night.

Interim Champion

Fabricio Werdum earned the right to face Velasquez with a five-round unanimous decision win over Travis Browne at UFC on Fox 11 in April of 2014. The following month, Werdum and Cain Velasquez were named as opposing coaches for TUF Latin America with the two scheduled to square off for the UFC heavyweight title at UFC 180. However, Velasquez suffered a knee injury one month before the scheduled fight, forcing the UFC to arrange an interim heavyweight title match between Werdum and Mark Hunt as the main event of UFC 180.

Werdum survived an early knockdown from the hard hitting Samoan and displayed his much improved striking skills to stop Hunt in the 2nd round to win the interim heavyweight title. Werdum has always been known as perhaps the best submission expert in UFC heavyweight history but the emergence of his striking game under the famed Rafael Cordeiro has transformed him into an elite mixed martial artist who is now on top of his game.

So now that Velasquez is healthy again, the UFC rescheduled their colossal confrontation for June 13th, with the winner becoming the undisputed UFC heavyweight champion.

Who Takes this?

The current odds say that Velasquez is a -525 favorite to retain his title against Werdum who is a + 410 underdog right now. While the improvement in Werdum’s overall game has been dramatic and impressive, Cain Velasquez’s cardio is close to being supernatural. Velasquez gives his opponents 20 minutes of hell and punishes them with both a supreme wrestling base and a vicious striking game.

Werdum has the size to match up with Velasquez but definitely the champion has the advantage in the striking department with more diverse attacks. With Cain’s gas tank, he can easily take Werdum to the mat especially in the latter stages of the fight, if it goes that direction. Werdum has an excellent guard and has the better submission skills on the ground. In fact, it’s perhaps on the ground where he has a shot at beating Cain-by submission, and that is if he can put Velasquez flat on his back. That’s easier said than done, especially when you’re talking about someone who has a gas tank that could last ten MMA rounds at least.

Werdum should pose an early challenge to the champion but as this fight goes longer, Cain’s cardio will take over. Experts are picking Cain to win by late stoppage.

For the second straight week, the Barclays Center in New York, USA will be the center of the boxing world. Last Friday, British boxer Amir Khan defeated New York’s own Chris Algieri in a 12-round welterweight battle that generated 1.1 million TV views. On Saturday, Puerto Rican superstar Miguel Cotto will defend his WBC and lineal middleweight titles against Daniel Geale of Australia.

Lineal or Catch Weight

A lot has been said about Miguel Cotto being lineal middleweight champion because while he clearly beat resident middleweight champ Sergio Martinez last June, they fought at a catch weight of 159 pounds.  On Saturday, Cotto will battle Geale at an even lower catch weight of 157 pounds.

These string of catchweight title bouts has put a big asterisk in Cotto’s reign as lineal middleweight champ because among the eight current lineal boxing champions, he’s the only one who hasn’t fought in his weight class limit. Cotto’s choice of Geale as next opponent was also questioned because many were expecting him to lock horns with either Mexican superstar Saul “Canelo” Alvarez or WBA middleweight champion Gennady Golovkin.

The Real Deal

Unlike Cotto, Daniel Geale is a natural 160-pound fighter and a former world champion at that. The 34-year old Aussie is the former IBF, WBA and IBO middleweight title holder. He’s ranked as the #4 middleweight by The Ring and has been in its Top 5 middleweights since 2010. Geale holds notable wins over Sebastian, Sylvester, Osumanu Adama, Felix Sturm and Anthony Mundine. However, Geale is 2-2 in his last four bouts and has alternated wins with losses to Darren Barker in 2013 and Gennady Golovkin last July 2014.

Geale is the bigger man in this fight but with the catch weight of 157 pounds, his natural advantages over Cotto will be neutralized. The Aussie was still 10.5 pounds over the agreed weight limit seven days before the fight and while his team is certain they will make weight, it remains to be seen how he will be on fight night after literally draining himself this week to make 157 pounds.

Who Takes This?

Cotto is a -600 favorite in this fight while Geale the underdog at +400. Although the current odds have slightly improved from last week’s -675 and +500 respectively, the naturally smaller Cotto remains a solid pick. The smaller Cotto had above average speed as a welterweight and is definitely a fast punching middleweight. Aside from Cotto’s speed, another factor in the fight is weight.

Geale is expected to rehydrate to around 175 pounds during the fight and experts are anticipating a drained and weaker version to show up on fight night.  Cotto is a big puncher who likes to work the body so if Geale does appear depleted in the fights, we could be seeing a late knockout from Miguel Cotto on Saturday night.

Aside from the catchweight which is definitely in Cotto’s favor, Geale is perceived to be on the way to his decline after a long career on top of the middleweight division. He is no longer a spring chicken and looked a step slower against the powerful Golovkin last year. But hey, don’t underestimate a former world champion in Geale who’s looking for one last run at a world title. Geale is scrappy and knows how to win. But Cotto’s penciled the contract of this fight to go his way and by all indications, the Puerto Rican is headed to another victory.