All posts by Chris Blain

UFC on Fox 28: Ovince St. Preux vs. Ilir Latifi Odds and Prediction

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Ovince St. Preux and Ilir Latifi finally collide at UFC on Fox 28 on February 24th, 2018 at the Amway Center in Orlando, Florida.

These two light heavyweight contenders were supposed to fight each other at UFC on Fox 27 but Latifi pulled out of that bout with an undisclosed injury. But after Yoel Romero vs. David Branch was pulled out from the Orlando event, the St. Preux vs. Latifi showdown was reset.

Getting What He Asked For

St. Preux is on a three-fight winning streak, earning post fight bonuses in each of his last two wins. In his most recent bout, OSP knocked out Corey Anderson via head kick at UFC 217. Prior to that, St. Preux won back to back fights by Von Flue choke. OSP had three straight losses before this current streak.

Latifi is 4-1 in his last five bouts. He is coming off a unanimous decision win over Tyson Pedro at UFC 215. Prior to that victory, Latifi lost via knockout to Ryan Bader. The 34-year old Swedish fighter hoped to keep keep his fight with St. Preux despite the injury. He’s getting what he asked for.

A Powerful Striker

St. Preux is the slight underdog here (-125 at Realbet.eu), while Latifi opens as a mild favorite at -105. OSP is a big strong athlete who has recorded finishes in eight of his last nine wins. He is a powerful striker with an 80 inch reach advantage. St. Preux is looking to win four fights in a row since 2013 and is coming off back to back performance of the night honors.

Likewise, Latifi is a powerful striker who has recorded knockouts due to punches in three of his last five victories. He is also comfortable on the ground with four submission wins and four takedowns landed in his last fight. But against an aggressive striker like OSP, his chin may not hold.

Has Momentum Going

Latifi fought just once last year and is giving up seven inches in reach to St. Preux. If those advantages aren’t enough, OSP finished 2017 strong and has momentum going his way. St. Preux has the advantage on his feet as he is going to test not just Latifi’s defense butt his chin as well.

If Latifi decides to take this fight to the ground, OSP also has a good ground game. St. Preux has recorded six career wins by submission so Latifi can’t take him lightly on the canvass. Having said that, Ovince St. Preux has the advantage here, either way. He’s going to continue to climb the standings and pick up another win here. We’re picking Ovince St. Preux to pick up his fourth straight win.

UFC on Fox 28: Jeremy Stephens vs. Josh Emmett Odds and Prediction

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Jeremy Stephens faces Josh Emmett in the main event of UFC on Fox 28 on February 24th, 2018 at the Amway Center in Orlando, Florida.

The event was supposed to be headlined by Yoel Romero and David Branch but the former was promoted to the UFC 221 main event after the injury to UFC middleweight champion Robert Whitaker.

When this fight was booked, Stephens was just days removed from a second round knockout of Doo Ho Choi at UFC St. Louis. He took the fight, not just to stay busy but keep himself alive in the title hunt. Emmett is coming off the biggest win of his career, a first round knockout win over Ricardo Lamas at UFC on Fox 26.

Stephens is 26-14 overall and has won just half of his last ten fights. On the other hand, Josh Emmett is 13-1 and owns five victories in his last six bouts. His only loss has been a close split decision loss to Desmond Green at UFC 210.

The Odds

Stephens is the slight -160 favorite at Bovada, while Emmett is listed as the mild underdog at +130.

This one could go either way really. Stephens is the slightly bigger fighter here so the size advantage is with him. Li’l Heathen also possesses more punching power, as he can end things with just one punch and in one blink of an eye.

But Josh Emmett is the better all around fighter here. He can a deep wrestling background, is an excellent grappler and can defend intelligently on his feet. He is fundamentally sound and has the better fight IQ than Stephens. Whatever his opponent brings to the fight, he can make adjustments and win.

Good Defensive Instincts

Stephens main problem here is that his opponent has good defensive instincts which enables him to avoid any serious trouble on his feet. Emmett is going to wrestle, grapple and wear down Stephens, take away his ability to finish the fight and force him to win another way.

Josh Emmett is going to limit Jeremy Stephens’ punching power and is going to take this fight to the ground where Li’l Heathen is not comfortable. If he fights smart, he’s not going to get hit with the big bombs and he’s going to pull off the upset. We’re picking Josh Emmett to win this fight by unanimous decision.

Victor Ortiz vs. Devon Alexander Odds and Prediction

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Former world title holders Victor Ortiz and Devon Alexander square off in a welterweight showdown that will serve as the main event of a Premier Boxing Champions card on February 17th, 2018 at the Don Haskins Center in El Paso, Texas.

With the welterweight division stacked with big names and talent, these two former champions hope to keep their names among the elites. To do that though, they have to go through each other in a very important fight for both fighters.

Fighting Sporadically

Alexander is coming off an easy November 21st win over Walter Castillo. Prior to that bout, Alexander spent 25 months on the shelf recovering from addiction to painkillers. Alexander was both a 140 and 147-pound champion during his better years where he was considered one of boxing’s future stars.

Ortiz, meanwhile, has fought sporadically since losing his WBC welterweight belt to Floyd Mayweather Jr. in 2011. Aside from injuries, Ortiz has spent a considerable amount of time off the ring to pursue among others a movie career. But Ortiz returned in July 2017 to knock out Saul Corral in four rounds.

Crossroads Fight

Devon Alexander is the slight favorite here at -250 while Ortiz came back at +200. This is going to be an entertaining fight because both fighters know each other since they were kids but have never fought in the pros and when they were still in their primes. But like Mayweather vs. Pacquiao, it’s better late than never. The comparison ends there, though.

Both are in the tail end of their careers and this is a crossroads fight for the both of them. The winner of this bout shall remain relevant in a very loaded welterweight division while the loser will probably never be able to get another shot at returning to the pinnacle of the 147-pound division.

Not the Same

Both are former world champions and both are southpaws. But since losing to Floyd Mayweather Jr., Victor Ortiz has never looked the same. He’s won just half of his fights and has lost to every recognizable name in his resume since the controversial knockout by Mayweather.

Devon Alexander has the advantage in speed and defense. He should be able to break down Ortiz while landing some excellent counter punches. Ortiz has the advantage in punching power but at this stage of his career, we aren’t sure what is left of Ortiz or his punching power. Something has been missing since he got knocked out by Mayweather.

We’re picking Devon Alexander to win this fight by unanimous decision. He’s too good to be lured by someone like Ortiz into a phone booth battle and he’s too smart to be caught by a one punch knockout from the Vicious One. Ortiz may be more entertaining but that’s as good as he’ll get.

Danny Garcia vs. Brandon Rios Odds and Prediction

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Two division world champion Danny ‘Swift’ Garcia makes his long awaited return against former world champion Brandon ‘Bam Bam’ Rios in a welterweight showdown on February 17th, 2018 at the Mandalay Bay Events Center in Las Vegas, Nevada presented by the Premier Boxing Champions.

Much Needed Break

Garcia took a much needed break from boxing after his split decision loss to Keith Thurman last March 4th. The 29-year old Garcia reigned as world champion for six years and faced 10 world champions in his last 14 fights. In his 5 welterweight bouts, Garcia faced four world champions.

Garcia was unified champion at 140 pounds and has fought and defeated the likes of Erik Morales, Zab Judah, Kendall Holt, Amir Khan, Lucas Matthysse, Paulie Malignaggi and Lamont Peterson. He was the WBC 147-pound champion before losing the belt to Thurman in a unification bout.

Coming From Retirement

Rios himself has fought some of this generation’s best welterweights including Timothy Bradley Jr. and Manny Pacquiao. Bam Bam won the world title at 140 pounds and figured in a storied rivalry with Mike Alvarado which brought us some of the most exciting bouts we’ve ever seen.

Bam Bam has split his last six bouts but is coming off a win over Aaron Herrera. Rios retired after losing to Bradley in 2015 but returned 19 months later to face Herrera. He didn’t look too rusty in his return, winning by 7th round KO. But facing Garcia is another story. A win would put him back on the map while a loss should mean the end of Rios career.

No Problem

Danny Garcia is the heavy betting favorite here at -1600 while Rios is the underdog at +650. Rios used to be one of the most exciting fighters in the business. He is always willing to take punishment in order to land his power shots. Sometimes, he makes his fights interesting by allowing himself to take a pounding.

But the wear and tear of a long and hard fought career has caught up with him and he simply isn’t the same exciting fighter that we used to adore. Even before his career went on a downslide, Rios struggled against quality opponents and wore down as the fight went on. Having said that, Danny Garcia should have no problem with him.

Just A Shell

Rios plodding style makes him a sitting duck target for an accurate puncher like Danny Garcia. Swift should have little or no problem in getting the kind of offense that he wants in this fight. He could even score a big knockout win here if he pressures Rios round after round.

While he still has the warrior inside of him, Rios is just a shell of his old self. This is a smart choice for Danny Garcia who obviously wants to look good after losing his last fight to Keith Thurman. His detractors don’t like his choice of opponent but if there is one foe who can make DSG look good, it’s Rios. We’re picking Danny Garcia to win by a wide unanimous decision or late stoppage.

George Groves vs. Chris Eubank Jr. Odds and Prediction

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George Groves faces Chris Eubank Jr. for the WBA Super Middleweight title at the Manchester Arena in Manchester, England on February 17th, 2018. The bout will serve as one of the semi-finals match-up for the super middleweight division edition of the  World Boxing Super Series.

Coming Off KO Wins

Groves is coming off a 4th round knockout of Jamie Cox during his opening match of the World Boxing Super Series tournament. The fight also served as Groves’ first defense of the WBA super middleweight belt which he won over former champion Fedor Chudinov last May. It was Groves’ first title win in four tries.

Eubank meanwhile reached the semifinals with a third round stoppage of little known Avni Yildirim. Eubank has fought mostly at middleweight and in his most important bout, he dropped a 12 round split decision loss to then British and Commonwealth middleweight champion Billy Joe Saunders.

As Close As It Gets

This is as close as it gets. The betting odds favor Chris Eubank Jr. at -150 but George Groves isn’t far behind at +110. You can easily make a case for both fighters in this bout, that’s the reason why tickets for this one sold out very fast. It’s one of the most highly anticipated bouts of the tournament.

It’s fair to say that George Groves is the better boxer here and has a huge experience advantage over Eubank. Groves is famous for his two bouts against the legendary Carl Froch and although he lost both fights, his familiarity with an event of this magnitude is a big plus for him.

More Stamina

But Eubank is the better athlete and has more stamina. He’s good at pacing himself and keeping something left in the tank for the championship rounds, where he loves to be the aggressor. That’s bad news for someone like Groves who can be wild at times and whom we’ve seen in the past tire himself out after getting lured into a brawl.

Keep an eye for Eubank’s uppercuts, they might end this fight in the later rounds. It’s going to be fun and exciting as everyone else expected. But in the end, it’s going to be Chris Eubank Jr. who will be moving one fight closer to winning the Ali Trophy. We’re picking Chris Eubank Jr. to in by late stoppage or close decision.

Murat Gassiev vs. Yunier Dorticos Odds and Prediction

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IBF cruiserweight champion Murat Gassiev takes on WBA cruiserweight kingpin Yunier Dorticos in the semifinals of the World Boxing Super Series’ cruiserweight division. The fight will be held at Bolshoy Ice Dome in Sochi, Russia on February 3rd, 2018.

Unbeaten Champions

The 24-year old Gassiev is the youngest member of the cruiserweight field. He has an impressive record of 25-0 with 28 knockouts. Gassiev has knocked out nine of his last 10 opponents, with only Denis Lebedev going the distance with him. In his most recent bout at the WBSS quarterfinals, he needed just three rounds to dispose of Krzysztopf Wlodarczyk.

Like Gassiev, Dorticos is unbeaten in 22 fights. The 31-year old Havana, Cuba native has knocked out all but one of his 22 opponents inside the ring. In his quarterfinals bout, Dorticos outslugged Dmitry Kudryashov in just two rounds to retain his belt and move on to the semifinals of this cruiserweight tournament.

KO Doctor

Dorticos isn’t called the knockout doctor for nothing. Nine of his last 11 bouts have lasted four rounds or fewer and over the period, only Edison Miranda survived his powerful straight. When you talk about pure power, Dorticos may be the top guy in this weight class. At 6-3 and with a reach of 80 inches, Dorticos has excellent size for a cruiserweight.

But Gassiev is also a behemoth himself. He is 6-3 with a reach of 76 inches. Gassiev likes to pressure his opponents. He loves to come forward with hard, compact punches that have one-punch knockout power. Gassiev may have the most feared right hand in the division and at just 24, he has the chance to become the man to beat at this weight class.

More Skilled

Gassiev is the slight favorite here at -150 while Dorticos the underdog at +120. This has the makings of a classic with two big punchers carrying unbeaten records going head to head. It also has the potential to be an early fight of the year candidate because these punchers have a high knockout ratio.

But as far as picking a winner here, we’re going with the betting favorite Gassiev. Not only is he fighting on home turf, he is also the more skilled boxer between the two. While Dorticos can be sometimes wild with his punches and leave himself open for counters, Gassiev throws compact and powerful punches without sacrificing his defense.

Dorticos’ size has always been his advantage over his opponents but in this fight, he won’t have the benefit of that size edge because Gassiev is one of the few cruiserweights who can match him in terms of size. So for as long as Gassiev fights smart and avoids getting hit by Dorticos’ haymaker, he’s going to win this fight. We’re picking Murat Gassiev to beat Yunier Dorticos in an exciting battle.

World Boxing Super Series Semis: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Mairis Briedis Odds and Prediction

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WBO Cruiserweight champion Oleksandr Usyk faces WBC Cruiserweight title holder Mairis Briedis in the semifinals of the World Boxing Super Series at the Riga Arena in Riga, Latvia on January 27th, 2018.

The winner of the bout will move on to face the winner of the other semi-final bout IBF champion Murat Gassiev and WBA king Yunier Dorticos on February 3rd, 2018. The World Boxing Super Series champion will receive the Muhammad Ali Trophy, boxing’s most prestigious prize today.

Nation Behind Him

Usyk is the top seed in this cruiserweight tournament. The former 2011 World Champion and 2012 Olympic champion is undefeated in 13 bouts with 11 knockouts. But he will be facing a fellow world champion in his own backyard. Mairis Briedis is considered a national hero in Latvia and you can expect the whole nation to be cheering for him.

That crowd support was evident during Briedis quarterfinal fight against Mike Perez which he won by unanimous decision. Briedis has fought eight times in front of his countrymen and he’s never lost a bout there. The WBC champion also has an unblemished record of 23-0 with 18 KOs.

Can’t Miss Battle

The betting gods favor Usyk here at -500 while Briedis is the underdog at +350. This is a can’t miss battle between two unbeaten champions. You can’t ask for a better way to start the year. But of course you’ve got to realize that this is part of the World Boxing Super Series where champions meet champions in order to determine the best of the best.

Usyk has the advantage in speed and combinations while Briedis possesses that one punch knockout power than can end this fight at any given time. This will most probably go down to who can dictate the tempo of the fight and we believe that’s going to be Oleksandr Usyk.

Losing Focus

The Ukrainian isn’t just the bigger fighter in this match-up, he also has the ability to mix punches and land different combinations. Usyk is also quicker on his feet and has the ability to take a punch. Given these advantages, Usyk is going to frustrate Briedis all night long.

When big punchers like Briedis can’t land the ‘Big One’, they tend to get discouraged and lose focus. Briedis is an excellent slugger and a deserving champion but he doesn’t have what it takes to outwork Usyk inside the ring. We’re picking Usyk to win close, on points and in a very good fight.

UFC on Fox 27 Odds and Prediction: Denis Bermudez vs. Andre Fili

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Denis Bermudez takes on Andre Fili in a featherweight showcase  at UFC on Fox 27 on January 27th, 2018 at the Spectrum in Charlotte, North Carolina.

Similarities and Differences

Both Bermudez and Fili have split their last eight bouts but if there’s a difference between the two it’s that Bermudez is coming off a loss to Darren Elkins last July while Fili is coming off a big win over Artem Lobov last October.

Bermudez and Fili also have 17 career wins each but Bermudez has 7 losses compared to Fili’s 5. However, Bermudez has fought much better competition than Fili as he has been in the UFC since 2012. Fili lost the two biggest bouts of his career, a submission loss to Max Holloway and a KO loss to Yair Rodriguez. He will be looking for his first win against a big name fighter in Bermudez.

Similar Skill Sets

Like the event’s headliner bout, this is also a pick’em contest with Bermudez being slightly favored over Fili at -150 against +130. Both fighters are tough to read, really and this one’s a difficult fight to pick as Bermudez and Fili have similar skill sets.

Bermudez is the proven veteran but he’s lost his last two fights and can suddenly become tentative with his offense without clear reason. Fili meanwhile has the tools to be a better fighter but has not produced back to back wins in the last five years. Between two inconsistent fighters, it may be prudent to pick the one with the size advantage and that’s Fili who owns a five inch height and an eight inch reach edge over Bermudez.

Forcing Bermudez To Back Pedal

Aside from his size and length, Fili also possesses more punching power with a 47% KO ratio as compared to Bermudez’s 24% knockout rate. Likewise, Fili’s aggressive style could affect Bermudez and force him to fight going backwards, which has never been easy for him in past fights.

Don’t count out Dennis Bermudez but we’re picking Andre Fili here to win by decision. Bermudez is going to have a hard time with a bigger opponent who moves forward most of the time. He’s going to be on the defensive in this fight. Sure Fili hasn’t won two in a row in five years but the law of averages should catch up with that here. Andre Fili by unanimous decision.

UFC on Fox 27 Odds and Prediction: Ronaldo Souza vs. Derek Brunson

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Ronaldo ‘Jacare’ Souza takes on Derek Brunson on January 27th, 2018 at the main event of UFC on Fox 27 at the Spectrum Center in Charlotte, North Carolina.

Second Time

This will be the second time that these two middleweight contenders are going to fight each other. The first time they met was at the Strikeforce promotion in 2012, where Souza recorded a quick 41-second knockout of Brunson. Souza signed with the UFC the following year and has won seven of nine bouts.

Brunson meanwhile, immediately went to the UFC following his loss to Jacare and has compiled a record of 9-3 under the UFC banner. Three of Brunson’s last three fights were outside U.S. soil but for this encounter, he will be fighting in front of his hometown fans in Charlotte, North Carolina.

Contrasting Styles

Between two decorated octagon veterans, this one’s a pick ‘em fight. Jacare is the slight favorite at -160 while Brunson came back as the underdog at +140. This should be both fun and exciting to watch with two fighters trying to impose their contrasting styles on each other.

According to Fightmetric, Souza is averaging 3.24 takedowns per 15 minutes with 44.44% accuracy. Meanwhile Brunson lands 3.2 significant strikes per minute at a 46% connect rate.

Having said that, it’s pretty clear that Jacare might want to bring this fight to the ground rather than slug it out with Brunson on his feet. Brunson meanwhile is well aware that Jacare has 17 wins by submission, so he’d rather take his chances standing up rather than defending the Brazilian’s submission attempts on the ground.

Not The Same Fighter

When he’s at his best, Jacare Souza is one of the sport’s premier grapplers and wrestlers. As we said, he has 17 wins by submission and that represents 58% of his total victories to date. He is coming off the first knockout loss of his career against Robert Whitaker but he’s never lost back to back fights before in his career. The only concern here is that Souza is already 38 years old and while he still has the ability to strike with the best in business, his reflexes are no longer what they used to be. Just take a look at the Whitaker bout.

That’s where Brunson gets excited. After his back to back losses to Robert Whitaker ( by KO ) and Anderson Silva ( controversial loss ), Brunson has picked up consecutive knockout wins over Daniel Kelly and Lyoto Machida. He is one of the biggest punchers in the middleweight division with his last six wins coming via knockout. Not only does Brunson have the punching power, he also has a 77 inch reach that makes him an ever dangerous striker. Although he isn’t adept to the ground and Souza is, Brunson has never been submitted in his career.

Submissions Are Key

Submissions are the key here because it’s where Souza has made a living and it’s where Brunson has never tasted defeat. In a game between striker and grappler, it’s almost always good to beat on the latter. In this case though, Brunson doesn’t only have a five inch reach advantage on Jacare, he also has never been submitted nor has he ever been taken down in his UFC career.

Brunson has the speed  to counter every takedown that Souza tries and has the power to end this fight at any moment. Given Jacare’s age and decline in recent fights plus the fact that Brunson is fighting in his hometown, we’re picking the American Derek Brunson to win this rematch via knockout.

Errol Spence vs. Lamont Peterson Odds and Prediction

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Errol Spence defends his IBF welterweight title against Lamont Peterson on January 20th, 2018 at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York.

Fighting At Barclays

The 27-year old Spence, a native of Dallas, Texas, traveled all the way to England to dethrone Kell Brook as the IBF welterweight champion in May of 2017.

Spence fulfilled his promise to become world champion by pummeling Brook, breaking his orbital bone in the process en route to an 11th round TKO win. This will be Spence’s third appearance at the Barclays Center and in his most recent outing there, he stopped former world champion, Chris Algieri.

Two division champion Lamont Peterson has faced some of the biggest names in the sport, including Amir Khan, Danny Garcia and Timothy Bradley Jr. Peterson won the WBA 147-pound title last February but relinquished it in order to challenge Spence. Peterson has lost just once in his last five fights and two of his most recent wins have come at the Barclays Center. It will be interesting to see who wins at the Barclays this time around.

A Huge Favorite

Spence is a huge -1600 favorite over the veteran Peterson, who came back at +1150. Although this is only Spence’s first title defense, he proved in his last fight that he is for real and not just hype. Spence’s demolition of Kell Brook last May showed that he should be ranked among the best pound-for-pound boxers on the planet.

The 5-9 southpaw has an impressive 72-inch reach advantage and possesses power in both hands. Spence likes to work the body and does so with consistency until his opponent wears down. But unlike some elite punchers, he isn’t a free swinger. He’s a high IQ fighter who has excellent defensive instincts.

Best Welterweight Today

Peterson is no pushover. He is an excellent athlete and a former world champion. He moves well around the ring and has very decent punching power. He likes to work on the inside with his fast hands and can put up some great combinations if he finds a rhythm. Peterson’s been knocked out just once in three losses, so he’s a tough cookie to crack too.

But Spence is on a roll and is probably the best welterweight in the sport today despite the lack of big fights in his resume. Peterson is soon to be 34 and at that age, he may not be able to keep up with a hungry pitbull like Spence.

Peterson’s going to have his moments here but it’s going to be Spence who will open 2018 with a bang. Whether it’s a  late stoppage or a dominant unanimous decision win, we’re picking Errol Spence to win and keep his belt.