All posts by Chris Blain

UFC 217: Stephen Thompson vs. Jorge Masvidal Odds and Prediction

Sports News & Picks, , , , , ,

Stephen Thompson faces Jorge Masvidal at UFC 217 at the Madison Square Garden in New York on November 4th, 2017. The event will be headlined by the middleweight title bout between champion Michael Bisping and former UFC welterweight king Georges St. Pierre, but this welterweight showdown could steal the thunder.

Coming off Losses

Thompson will be fighting for the first time since back to back title fights against UFC welterweight champ, Tyron Woodley. Wonderboy came within a whisker of winning the belt twice, earning a majority draw at UFC 205 and then dropping a 48-47, 48-47 and 47-47 majority decision loss to Woodley during their rematch at UFC 209. Prior to those two bouts, the South Carolina native won an impressive nine consecutive bouts.

Masvidal is also coming off a loss, having been beaten by Demian Maia at UFC 211. Prior to that defeat, Masvidal went on a three fight winning streak, beating Ross Pearson, Jake Ellenberger and Donald Cerrone in succession. Gamebred’s last 8 fights record of 4-4 is very deceptive. He has been silently climbing the ranks and improving his game. Masvidal has been waiting for a big opportunity like this and you bet he’s going all out.

Odds and Prediction

Wonderboy Thompson is currently the favorite at -155 ,while Jorge Masvidal is the underdog at +135.

This pick’em fight should be a good one and has the potential to be the fight of the night. Wonderboy is a decorated kickboxer who also has good power in his punches. Thompson’s legs are long while his kicks and punches are strong, making him a dangerous opponent in standup striking.  When he gets taken down, though, he isn’t as good on his back.

Masvidal is a brawler who lands powerful punches in the stand up. He’s one of the tougher fighters in the division owing to his Miami street fighting background. Gamebred is also quick and athletic enough to land takedowns plus he has good grappling skills. Thompson should have a handful against Masvidal standing up but when the fight goes to the ground, it’s got to be Masvidal’s fight to win.

Thompson will look for the quick win here but given that Masvidal has been knocked out only once in his 12 losses, it’s going to be frustrating. Masvidal, meanwhile, will try to make this ugly, whether on the feet or on the ground. He’s gonna try and make Thompson do other things aside from striking. This fight should go the distance with Masvidal winning by a narrow decision. We’re going with the upset here and picking Masvidal to win on points.

UFC Fight Night 118: Will Cowboy End His Losing Streak?

Sports News & Picks, , , , , ,

Donald Cerrone looks to snap out of the first losing streak of his MMA career when he faces Darren Till in the main event of UFC Fight Night 188 in Gdansk, Poland on October 21st, 2017.

Back To Back Losses

Cerrone is known as one of the UFC’s busiest fighters with at least four fights per year since 2013. But this year, he’s fought just twice and surprisingly has lost both. Cowboy was knocked out by Jorge Masvidal last January and then suffered a unanimous decision loss to Robbie Lawler in a high profile fight at UFC 214 last July. Cerrone hopes to get back on the winning side against a relative newcomer he said he never heard of before.

Darren Till has been in the UFC since 2015 but not many people know him. That’s because three of his four UFC bouts have been in the prelims of non-PPV events. But he’s unbeaten at 15-0-1 including a UFC record of 3-0-1. Till is coming off a September 2nd victory against Bojan Velickovic and will be making a quick turnaround for this one.

Pretty Close

Surprisingly, the odds for this one are pretty close. Cerrone is the slight favorite at -155 while Till the underdog at +125 at Bovada. If you take a look at his fight resume, chances are you won’t recognize any names there. But just because Till hasn’t fought quality opposition in the UFC doesn’t mean he is easy picking for Cowboy.

Till has has one-punch knockout power and that’s what makes him very dangerous. His athleticism and awkward style could turn out to be a nightmare for Cerrone, who is getting up there in the age department. Remember that Cowboy is coming off the first back to back losses of his MMA career so he may be one the way down. But then again, maybe not.

Explosiveness vs. Experience

Although he clearly lost to Masvidal, Cerrone fought Lawler tooth and nail. It was a back and forth fight and unfortunately it was just a three rounder. Lawler won that fight by a hairline and had it gone longer, who knows if Cerrone would’ve picked up the victory. Cowboy’s Muay Thai background makes this an exciting striking affair.

Cerrone has the advantage if this fight goes to the ground because he has more fight experience. But given Till’s explosiveness, he can end this fight at any moment. That’s what makes him dangerous, especially since three of Cowboy’s last five losses have been by knockout to excellent strikers in Anthony Pettis, Rafael Dos Anjos and Masvidal.

This one’s a pick ‘em fight but you’ve got to go with the veteran here. He’s been here and done that. Till has a great career ahead of him but Cerrone is a big step up in opposition for him. We’re picking Donald Cerrone to win this one by submission or decision.

Can Bermane Stiverne Beat Deontay Wilder This Time?

Sports News & Picks, , , , ,

WBC Heavyweight champion Deontay Wilder will now defend his belt against the man he won it from – Canadian fighter Bermane Stiverne. Stiverne replaces the power punching Luis “King Kong” Ortiz who failed a drug test last week.

Stiverne was supposed to fight fellow contender Dominic Breazeale in the undercard. Instead he will now face Wilder in the main event of this Showtime event  on November 4th, 2017 at the Barclays Center in New York.

Rematch

Wilder and Stiverne met in 2015 under different circumstances. Stiverne was the champion and Wilder the challenger. The latter won the contest via unanimous decision and took the WBC belt home to Tuscaloosa , Alabama.  Wilder has since defended the belt successfully five times.

Wilder was supposed to fight Ortiz to silence  his detractors who have always criticized his level of competition. But the Cuban tested positive for two diuretic drugs chlorothiazide and hydrochlorothiazide, which are used to treat high blood pressure but which can be used as masking agents for steroids. Ortiz said it was used for the former but didn’t ask for medical exemption from VADA.

Size Advantage

Just as he was in their first bout, Wilder is the favorite here. The Bronze Bomber is a -700 against Stiverne who is at +425 for this rematch. We saw what Wilder did in the first bout. Wilder used his size advantage over Stiverne to dictate the fight from the outside.

Before their first bout, Wilder was 32-0 with 32 KOs and many people thought he was all about knocking people out. But against Stiverne, he used every inch of his 83 inch reach advantage to keep the hard hitting Canadian at bay. Wilder dominated the fight with his jab and continued to pepper Stiverne with big right hands. He won handily in the scorecards.

Can’t Get Going

Stiverne is a conservative counter puncher and he won’t win this fight fighting at a distance because he gives up too much size against Deontay Wilder. He has to take this fight close since his best punches are the compact hooks which he throws from the inside. To get inside though, he must take chances and risk getting hit by Wilder’s bombs.

Stiverne successfully avoided getting floored or knocked out in the first bout. However, he wasn’t able to get his offense going because he was busy fending off Wilder’s punches. We’re not saying that Stiverne has no shot at winning this because he does have power in both hands.

However, Wilder beat him two years ago, when the Bronze Bomber was a raw talent. With Wilder now smarter and more intelligent, an older Stiverne is in for all sorts of problems.

Prediction

It’s not Deontay Wilder’s fault that he will be fighting Bermane Stiverne. Luis Ortiz couldn’t do his part. Now Wilder says that Stiverne is  going to pay for Oritz’s miscues. Doesn’t get any worse for Bermane Stiverne.

We’re picking Deontay Wilder to win this fight. f there’s a man to beat Wider, it won’t be Stiverne.  He already knows what Stiverne brings to the table and he has improved so much in the last couple of years. So don’t be surprised if Wilder is going to win this one by knockout.

UFC 216 Odds and Prediction: Fabricio Werdum vs. Derrick Lewis

Sports News & Picks, , , , , , , , , , ,

Former UFC heavyweight champion Fabricio Werdum squares off against the 7th ranked Derrick Lewis at UFC 216 at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas Nevada on October 7th, 2017.

Coming From Losses

Werdum is coming off of a majority decision loss to Alistair Overeem but remains one of the most dangerous fighters in the UFC’s heavyweight division with his elite grappling and improved striking game.

Lewis is also coming off a loss. The Black Beast lost steam and got knocked out by Mark Hunt at UFC Fight Night 110 last June. He announced his retirement after the bout but has since changed course. Now, Lewis tries to avoid losing back to back fights for the first time in his career. It won’t be easy at all.

Dictating The Fight

Werdum is the favorite here at -250. Lewis, meanwhile, is the slight underdog at +195. This should go down to whoever can dictate the fight and make his opponent fight his style.

Werdum is perhaps the best grappler and submission artist in heavyweight history so it would be prudent for him to take this fight to the ground. Werdum’s striking has improved since his title run but we saw what happened when he stood in front of a heavy hitter like Stipe Miocic.  Derrick Lewis has the same kind of punching power, or even better.

Fourteen of the Black Beast’s 15 wins have come via knockout and only four of his total fights have gone the distance. So, either way, Derrick Lewis is going to come out swinging for the fences against Werdum. There is no doubt that if Lewis can connect, Werdum is definitely going to sleep.

Prediction

Werdum, meanwhile, will try to avoid the Miocic mistake. Because he is the best grappler and submission artist in heavyweight history, he will most certainly try to slow down Lewis by taking the fight to the ground where he is an expert. But Lewis may not be easy to put on the canvas.

The Black Beast is 260 pounds and has good takedown defense. Werdum also has to be wary about Lewis’ reach which is two inches longer than his. If Werdum can’t take this fight to the ground, he’s going to have to eat monster punches from the Black Beast.

This could go either way, really. But we’re picking Derrick Lewis to win this one by stoppage. I just don’t see Werdum taking him to the ground. Lewis’ is the longer man by two inches. He also has the heavier hands. Derrick Lewis by late knockout.

UFC 216 Odds and Prediction: Can Ray Borg Upset Demetrious Johnson?

Sports News & Picks, , , , , , , ,

Demetrious ‘Mighty Mouse” Johnson will be aiming for an 11th straight title defense as he faces Ray Borg at UFC 216. The massive event will be held at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada on October 7th, 2017.

Rebooked Fight

The fight was originally scheduled for UFC 215 but was cancelled after Borg pulled out from the fight because of sickness. Borg’s withdrawal drew plenty of criticism, but he’s now okay and hopes to achieve one of the biggest upsets ever in the UFC.

Mighty Mouse is considered to be the best pound for pound fighter on the planet. He hasn’t lost a fight since 2011, when he was defeated by Dominick Cruz.  Meanwhile, Ray Borg has won five of his last six bouts and is coming off a win over Jussier Formiga in March.

Not As Good On His Feet

Johnson is the huge favorite here with -1200 odds at Bovada, while Borg is the underdog at +700. Borg is a great fighter, no question about that. But he is not as effective if he is forced to fight in a stand up battle. Johnson, meanwhile, is a complete fighter. He has all the tools in the box and can fight any style he wants.

Borg is an active fighter who likes to scramble and grapple. He loves to go for takedowns. In fact, he’s scored five takedowns in his last five bouts. But he doesn’t have striking power nor is he as good on his feet as he is on the ground.

That’s going to be a huge problem against Mighty Mouse, especially if you ask Borg:

No Signs of Slowing Down

Demetrious Johnson had some problems against Tim Elliott, who is a good wrestler. But despite that, Mighty Mouse still managed to win convincingly and rather easily via scores of 49-46, 49-46 and 49-45. Still, Borg will look at that tape and try to do better.

It’s hard to pick against Demetrious Johnson, though. The man has proven himself time and again. Mighty Mouse is the UFC’s first and only flyweight champion. He’s defended the belt an incredible 10 times and he’s showing no signs of slowing down.

Borg’s work is cut out for him. Mighty Mouse is going to take him to school. Borg won’t be able to drag this fight to the ground. D.J. is going to keep this fight standing up. He’ll walk away with another easy unanimous decision win here.

Anthony Joshua vs. Kubrat Pulev Odds and Prediction

Sports News & Picks, , , , , ,

Anthony Joshua puts his heavyweight world titles on the line against Kubrat Pulev at Cardiff’s Principal Stadium on October 28th, 2017.

Joshua will defend his WBA and IBF belts against the Pulev, who is the IBF’s mandatory challenger. Pulev has won 25 of 26 bouts with his only loss coming at the hands of Wladimir Klitschko in 2014. Since that defeat, Pulev has won five fights in a row including victories over Dereck Chisora, Samuel Peter and Kevin Johnson.

Next Big Thing

Pulev is a 6-4 fighter who utilizes his range very well. He is a smart boxer who doesn’t allow his opponents to box from the inside. He makes them fight his style and he’s good at finding holes in their defense. Although he isn’t known for his punching power, Pulev has recorded a knockout in six of his last 10 bouts.

Joshua, meanwhile, is the next big thing in the sport. He owns a perfect record of 19-0 with 19 KOs. Widely considered as the best heavyweight today, he possesses freak physical attributes. Joshua is large and masculine but he is fast, quick and agile. What makes him more dangerous is that he has natural punching power in both hands. There aren’t too many weaknesses in his game.

Massive Favorite

A.J. opened as a massive -5000 favorite at Bovada, while the Bulgarian brute came back as the +1400 underdog. Joshua should win this fight because he is the most physically gifted heavyweight in the business today. A.J.’s combination of size, speed, power and athleticism are rarely seen. We saw that on full display during his April 2017 victory over the great Wladimir Klitschko.

While many say that Joshua beat an over the hill old guy in Klitschko, it wasn’t easy. Wlad dominated the heavyweight division for over a decade and despite his advanced age, he didn’t show signs of slowing down. It was just that he faced a phenomenal athlete in Joshua and lost to him.

Too Much To Handle

Joshua’s defense isn’t very good. We saw Klitschko take advantage of that. Pulev fights a little like Klitschko. He uses his jab to set up his power right hand. Being an accomplished amateur boxer, Pulev is also a good boxer by heavyweight standards. As such, he can give Joshua some problems but in the end we think Joshua’s too much of a physical specimen for Pulev to handle.

Pulev will try to take advantage of Joshua’s defensive lapses but he too doesn’t have elite defense as well. Look for Joshua to unload his big bombs early in this fight. Not a question of the winner really. The odds are picking Joshua by a mile and we agree. As to how this fight will end, that’s more interesting. We’re picking Anthony Joshua to win by knockout in the first half of the fight.

Tony Ferguson vs. Kevin Lee Odds and Prediction

Sports News & Picks, , , , , , , , , ,

Tony Ferguson and Kevin Lee fight for the interim UFC lightweight title at the main event of UFC 216 at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada on October 7th, 2017.

Ferguson vs. Lee remained the headliner despite the UFC adding of the flyweight title bout between champion Demetrious ‘Mighty Mouse’ Johnson and Ray Borg to the card. That bout was supposed to headline UFC 215 but Borg pulled out of the fight due to injury. As it stands, the interim 155-pound title bout between El Cucuy and the Motown Phenom remains as the main event.

Interim Title Bout

With Conor McGregor taking the rest of the year off, top ranked lightweight Khabib Nurmagomedov has laid low since pulling out of his UFC 209 showdown with Ferguson due to a botched weight cut. Because of those developments, the UFC decided to keep the lightweight division active by ordering the 2nd ranked Ferguson and the #7 guy Lee to fight for the interim belt.

Ferguson has won an incredible 9 fights in a row and is coming off a decision win over former champion Rafael Dos Anjos last November. Lee, meanwhile, has won five consecutive fights, with four coming by stoppage. In his most recent bout, his first headliner, the 24-year old Lee submitted veteran Michael Chisea.

Equally Matched

Ferguson is favored over Lee at -225 against +175 odds at Bovada and most other UFC betting sites. It doesn’t get any better than this for the UFC. These are two equally matched fighters who can hold their own on the feet, in the clinch or on the canvass. It’s hard to pick a winner here because you can make a claim for either side.

Ferguson is a volume striker who has knockout power and who can submit his opponents on the ground. He’s one of the more conditioned fighters in the game and can win anywhere. Six of his last nine wins have come via stoppage.

Takedowns Are Key

Kevin Lee hasn’t lost since his 2015 defeat to Leonardo Santos. Lee is a strong athlete who takes the fight wherever he wants to and win there. He is an underrated striker but his bread and butter are his takedowns and submissions. He has nine takedowns in his last three fights with each of those bouts ending via stoppage.

Ferguson has been in superb form lately but Kevin Lee’s takedowns and superior strength should be the key here. Look for Lee to drag El Cucuy down and derail him from his game plan. Ferguson is excellent on the ground but Lee may be too strong for him on the canvass. It will be hard to stop Tony Ferguson but Kevin Lee will settle for scoring big takedowns. We’re picking Kevin Lee to win by decision or late submission.

George Groves vs. Jamie Cox Odds and Prediction

Sports News & Picks, , , ,

George Groves defends his WBA (Super) super middleweight title for the first time against unbeaten Jamie Cox on October 14th, 2017 at the SSE Arena in Wembley London.

The bout is part of the ongoing World Boxing Super Series super middleweight tournament which began in September. The winner of this contest will move forward to face the winner of the October 7th match between Chris Eubank Jr. and Avni Yildirim.

Grizzled Veteran

Groves is the grizzled veteran who brings an impressive record of 26-3 with 19 KOs. He has won five fights in a row and has not lost since being outpointed by Badou Jack in 2015. Groves is well known for his two fights with Carl Froch and although he lost both fights, he is a force to reckoned with.

Jamie Cox is the 2006 Commonwealth Games gold medalist who has compiled a record of 24-0 with 13 KOs . Cox will be making his first ever world title fight appearance and unfortunately for him, he is doing so against one of the toughest super middleweights in the business.

Big Step Up

Groves is a -450 favorite at Bovada to beat Cox, who is currently at +325. Groves biggest advantage is his vast fighting experience. He’s fought some of the best names in the weight class Fedor Chudinov, Martin Murray, Badou Jack, Carl Froch (twice), Glen Johnson, James DeGale. Groves may only be a modest 4-3 against those fighters, but still he has proven that he can compete at world title level.

In his most recent bout, Groves finally became a world champion after three failed attempts. Groves knocked out Chudinov in the sixth round of their WBA (Super ) super middleweight title bout. He then entered the 8-man World Boxing Super Series – super middleweight division tournament. His first assignment is the unbeaten Cox.

Cox has the tools to win this fight. His fast combinations and punching power are no fluke. He can turn the tide quickly and win this fight in a hurry. Cox is a pressure fighter who likes to bring the fight to his opponents. Five of his last six victories have been by knockout. But this bout won’t be decided by punching power. Rather, it will be won with experience and boxing ability. This is such a huge step up in level of opposition for Cox. He might not be able to rise to the occasion.

An Explosive Fight

Although he was stopped twice by Carl Froch, Groves is no easy man to put down. He’s a brawler who’d gladly accept Cox’s invitation to meet at the center of the ring. He has power in both hands and although he has good defense, he’d rather take some more punishment in order to deliver some. Seven of Groves’ last 10 wins have been by stoppage, so this is going to be an explosive fight.

But when it goes down the stretch, it’s going to be Groves’ boxing that will shine. We’re not expecting this fight to end by knockout. We think this is going to be a long and hard grinder. In the end, the more experienced boxer should win it. This should be a good fight. We’re picking George Groves to win on points.

UFC Fight Night 117: Ovince Saint Preux vs. Mauricio Rua Odds and Pick

Sports News & Picks, , , , , ,

Mauricio ‘Shogun’ Rua faces Ovince Saint Preux at the main event of UFC Fight Night 117 in Japan on September 22nd, 2017.

Rua, the former UFC light heavyweight champion, hopes to get back at Saint Preux who knocked him out in just 34 seconds at UFC Fight Night 56 in 2014. What made that loss more sorry was that it was held in Brazil, where Shogun hails from.

Looking for Revenge

Since that loss, though, Rua has been on a renaissance trail, winning three fights in a row. Shogun has fought once per year since 2015 but will be making his second fight of 2017. At age 35, he is no longer in his prime and is no longer the feared fighter he once was. More than looking long-term at the title, Rua is aching for revenge.

Ovince Saint Preux has seen his career slide lately. After fighting Jon Jones for the interim UFC light heavyweight title at UFC 197, he’s suffered back to back losses to Jimi Manuwa and Volkan Oezdemir. With just four wins in his last nine, he needs to get back on track. A win over Shogun puts him back in the mix.

More Respect

Saint Preux is the slight favorite at -170, while Shogun is close by at +150. OSP has a two inch height and four inch reach advantage over Rua and that could play a factor in this fight. Saint Preux is mostly a stand up striker who has power to end the fight with one punch. That’s what happened in their first bout when Shogun tried to rush in and got caught.  But you’ve got to believe that this time around, Rua will have more respect for OSP’s power. If he does so, he will be okay here.

Although he is the smaller man, Rua is the more balanced fighter between the two and he can win in a variety of ways. He should pick apart OSP and slow him down using leg kicks we know that Saint Preux’s endurance has always been his waterloo and if Rua can be patient and just slowly chop down the tree, he should be victorious here.

Shogun’s Advantage

We know Shogun is a legend is Japan during his days fighting for the PRIDE promotion where he was the 2005 Grand Prix champion. With this fight being held at the Super Saitama Arena in Japan, this should be a homecoming of sorts for Shogun. Having mentioned that, it’s interesting to note that Shogun has a record of 10-1 in Japan. With history and the crowd behind him, Shogun should have the advantage.

Saint Preux is in a funk right now. He’s lost four of his last six bouts although he is coming off a win over Marcos Rogerio De Lima in April. Like in their first fight, his best chance of winning this rematch is to go off early and stun Rua. That’s because the longer this goes, it will be to Shogun’s advantage. Shogun is smart and surely he’s learned his lesson. He’s going to take it easy this time around and stop Saint Preux late. We’re picking Mauricio Rua to win by stoppage in the championship rounds.

Luke Rockhold vs. David Branch: Will Rockhold Return in Style?

Sports News & Picks, , , , , , ,

Former UFC middleweight champion Luke Rockhold returns to the Octagon after a fifteen month absence as he takes on former WSOF middleweight titleholder David Branch in the main event of UFC Fight Night 116 at the PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburg, Pennsylvania.

Long Layoff

Luke Rockhold has not fought since losing the middleweight title to the brash Briton Michael Bisping at UFC 199. Bisping upset Rockhold via first round knockout to win the world title for the first time in his career. Rockhold was set to return last November to face Ronaldo ‘Jacare’ Souza at UFC Fight Night 101 but pulled out from the bout with an injury.

Rockhold’s opponent is the former WSOF’s inaugural middleweight and light heavyweight champion David Branch. Branch defended the middleweight title thrice and the light heavyweight crown once. He is on his second tour of duty with the UFC and is coming off a win over Krzysztopf Jotko. Branch had a mediocre 2-2 record during his first stint with the  UFC.

Odds and Prediction

Rockhold is a big -450 favorite against Branch who is currently a huge underdog at +350 and there’s no surprise to that. Luke Rockhold is one of the best all-around fighters in the sport. He is dangerous with his leg kicks and strikes but is equally deadly with his wrestling and submission game. Rockhold’s last five wins have ended in a knockout.

On the other hand, David Branch is a smart fighter who who has solid defense. He is a proven takedown artist with an average of 2.33 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. Rockhold only averages 0.56 takedowns per 15 minutes but is by far the more productive striker between the two with an average of 4.17 significant strikes landed per 15 minutes. David Branch only averages 1.49 significant strikes landed per 15 minutes.

Will Layoff be A Factor

It will be interesting to see how Rockhold performs after a fifteen month layoff. He’s never lost back to back fights in his career and he’s hoping to avoid that.

Branch meanwhile has won 11 consecutive bouts and hasn’t lost since he was beaten by Rumble Johnson in 2012. Branch has a slight advantage in reach and is the naturally bigger man here. This is a dangerous fight for Luke Rockhold. But Rockhold’s got the experience and the better wrestling game here.

We’re picking Luke Rockhold to win. He’s going to end this fight early and win in style.