All posts by Kevin

Lions Boost Offensive Line With Greg Robinson Trade

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The Detroit Lions continue to take measure to upgrade a troublesome offensive line, as the team reportedly swung a trade to land Greg Robinson. Formerly of the Los Angeles Rams, Robinson was once a highly touted o-line prospect out of Auburn and was made the second overall pick in the 2014 NFL Draft.

Filling a Need

Detroit recently developed an urgent need on their offensive line, when second-year left tackle Taylor Decker suffered a shoulder injury. Decker is expected to miss 4-6 months at a minimum as he rehabs the injury, which would keep him out to start the 2017 NFL season. Lions head coach Jim Caldwell has suggested Decker will not miss the entire 2017 season, but it is unknown exactly how much time he will miss.

Whether Decker can return later in the year or not, the Lions knew they had to find a way to stop the bleeding. Protecting starting quarterback Matthew Stafford is among the team’s top priorities, while the offense is also hoping to establish an improved rushing attack early on this season.

The Lions recently brought in free agent offensive tackle Cyrus Kouandjio and amplified their efforts to boost their damaged o-line with the Greg Robinson trade. While the Lions can’t be sure how well they can replace Decker or how long they’ll need the extra help, the team is clearly trying to make sure the drop-off isn’t too severe. That’s more crucial than ever, especially considering the Lions already struggled with pass protection a year ago. Stafford tied for 6th in the league after getting sacked 37 times and if the Lions want to win consistently, Robinson and/or Kouandjio will need to make up for the loss of Decker.

The story is similar on the ground, as the Lions get back star rusher Ameer Abdullah and hope to put forth a more convincing ground game after finishing 30th in the league in rushing yards per game in 2016.

Adding Talent

Things didn’t go as planned for Robinson while with the Rams, as the first round pick was scene as a massive bust after losing his starting job two years into his rookie deal. Robinson was part of a makeshift Rams o-line that routinely struggled and was at their worst in 2016. Working as a backup to begin camp, the Rams opted to finally cut their ties with Robinson and orchestrated a trade with the Lions that sent a 6th round draft pick to L.A. to complete the deal.

From a talent and size perspective, the 24-year old Robinson could easily end up being a steal for the Lions. A playoff team with a seasoned veteran quarterback under center, Detroit will undoubtedly be an easier team to play for. Robinson has already gone public about the trade, suggesting that a change of scenery could be “refreshing“. With a chance to prove himself with his new team, Robinson could end up locking down a starting job and turning his career around.

Odds Boost?

The Lions shouldn’t see any huge movement when it comes to their win/loss, division or Super Bowl 52 odds, but this shows Detroit is serious about covering all of their bases. Robinson was a bust with the Rams – make no mistake about it – but the talent has always been there and it’s not crazy to think a young player driven to prove his critics wrong could thrive on a far better roster.

Detroit has a lot of positive pieces in place and Robinson just needs to protect Stafford and help pave running lanes for the dangerous Abdullah. He could end up fending off Kouandjio, or the two could rotate together to keep each other fresh. Once Decker returns, if Robinson pans out, the Lions would suddenly have one of the deepest and strongest offensive lines that they’ve had in years.

Everything regarding Robinson going forward is hypothetical, but if he can hold serve and keep Detroit’s o-line from turning to mush, the Lions should continue to have a chance to fight for a second straight trip to the playoffs. Detroit faded badly before a one-and-done showing during the postseason last year, though, so getting that running game going early should be a huge piece to their puzzle. If all goes well, Robinson will be part of the mix that makes it all work, as well.

Detroit understandably holds onto poor Super Bowl 52 odds (+6600) at Bovada, while they have the third best odds (+425) to win the NFC North. They had a chance at nabbing the division title last year, but unless their running game is up to snuff, they probably aren’t a great bet to be that close again. Keep an eye on how Robinson fits in and if the Lions have a more balanced offensive attack going into the preseason. If so, the Lions could heat up as a fun sleeper bet for the division.

Rudy Gay Opts Out of Kings Contract to Become Free Agent

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Rudy Gay is finally moving on. The star forward decided to opt out of his deal with the Sacramento Kings on Monday, effectively making him an unrestricted free agent and able to sign with any team this summer. The move costs Gay a guaranteed $14.3 million he would have received if he decided to stick it out for one more year with the Kings, but the 30-year old decided to test the NBA free agency waters, instead:

The news is a mild surprise given Gay’s 2016-17 NBA season ended in disaster, with the aging star suffering a ruptured Achilles. All reports dealing with Gay’s rehab have been positive, however, with the star forward looking at a return to the court at some point in the summer. With Gay officially becoming a free agent, his focus will focus to his recovery and soon to his new potential team.

Gay Can Play

Rudy Gay could end up being a serious bargain for the right suitor, as the seasoned veteran was averaging over 18 points and six rebounds per game for the Kings before going down with his injury. Gay offers a solid two-way presence that can score, rebound, shoot from outside and also defense. Still only 31 years old in August, Gay could either opt to latch on with a title contender for a discount price or try to re-establish himself as a go-to star with a mid-level team.

Gay’s best bet is the former, as he’s slowly exiting his prime and it’s unlikely he’ll get huge money after such a devastating injury. With most players struggling to return from Achilles injuries, it’s possible Gay may have to wait deep into the summer to get serious offers. Even then, his suitors may be somewhat limited.

Top Suitors

While Gay may have to initially prove he can still ball and will play by his new team’s rules (he caused a distraction by wanting out of Sacramento), he has a desired skill-set and has suggested in the past that his main objective is playing for a winning club. Gay’s suitors on the surface level could make for a lengthy list, as any prospective NBA playoff team could use his size, athleticism, scoring and overall versatility.

One recurring Rudy Gay rumor in the past has been his interest in joining up with the Miami Heat. The Heat already have a solid core in Hassan Whiteside and Goran Dragic and will be looking to make some big moves to get their team back into the playoff hunt in the Eastern Conference. Other playoff contenders that could use Gay and could end up being connected to him at some point include the Boston Celtics, Houston Rockets, Washington Wizards and Los Angeles Clippers, among others.

The Clippers could be the team that realistically sticks out the most. Los Angeles still has work to do just to keep their own team intact, as Chris Paul, Blake Griffin and J.J. Redick are all scheduled to enter free agency this summer. If the Clips could retain their core and also provide enough incentive to bring in Gay, they could suddenly take care of the small forward position, which has given them problems for years.

Patriots Extend Star Wide Receiver Julian Edelman

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The New England Patriots keep finding ways to get better. After winning Super Bowl 51 and adding numerous upgrades at various positions during the offseason, the Patriots got better from within on Thursday, when news broke of an extension agreement with star wide receiver, Julian Edelman.

New England had been working to lock up Edelman, 31, who has proven to be one of the best slot wide receivers in the NFL. The two sides finally hammered out a long-term contract extension, which per ESPN‘s Adam Schefter will keep him with the team through the 2019 NFL season:

Rich Get Richer

The Pats stormed back from a 28-3 hole to win their fifth NFL title last season, so no matter what they do going into 2017, they’ll feel like they’re ahead of the pack. That’s easier to say after the team sprung a big trade to land former New Orleans Saints speedster Brandin Cooks, while handing Edelman an extension guarantees Tom Brady will have a loaded passing attack for the next few years.

Edelman merely beefs up a huge strength for New England, as their wide receiving corps has gotten so loaded that solid veteran slot man Danny Amendola is on the roster bubble heading into training camp. Regardless of what happens with Amendola, the Pats remain stacked at wide receiver and keeping one of the best in the business at working the slot makes sure they won’t experience a dip at the position.

New England rewards players that live up to the hype and can return solid value and Edelman has been doing that for years. The converted Kent State quarterback racked up 98 receptions in a full 16-game season in 2016 and has topped 92+ receptions three different times since being drafted in 2009. Edelman will undoubtedly eye a fourth run at 92+ catches and will also hope to stay healthy after missing nine total games between the 2014 and 2015 seasons.

Team to Beat?

New England extending Julian Edelman is just par for the course for what looks to be the best team in the NFL going into 2017. The Patriots went 14-2 and won Super Bowl 51 last year and nothing they’ve done since then suggests they can’t do something similar in 2017. Vegas certainly seems to agree, as the Pats enter the new season with the best chance (+375 odds at Bovada) to win it all again.

Locking up Edelman doesn’t add anything extra to New England’s 2017 Super Bowl hopes, but it does take away the potential distraction of contract talks. It also helps keep the Patriots in the conversation for title talks beyond this year. For Edelman, it’s appreciation for a job well done and security as he hopes to close out his playing career with the only franchise he’s ever known.

Bills Running Back LeSean McCoy Lays $200k on Warriors to Win the NBA Finals

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Buffalo Bills star running back LeSean McCoy has never been a quiet guy. He’s a vibrant and talented NFL rusher, he once held a very interesting “females only” party in Philadelphia and he apparently has no qualms about throwing down some serious coin on the NBA Finals.

That’s certainly the case this year, as the man known as “Shady” revealed recently that he could stand to win some big money thanks to a $200,000 bet in favor of the Golden State Warriors securing the NBA title this year. Already up with a commanding 2-0 lead over the Cleveland Cavaliers, the Dubs look well on their way to making an already rich McCoy, well, richer.

McCoy posted a snapchat of his ticket, which revealed a possible profit of a whopping $62,000. That’s a big chunk of cheese, but what McCoy (and anyone else who has placed big money on the Dubs) may be slightly afraid of is the fact that the Warriors held a 2-0 lead in last year’s NBA Finals, yet still found a way to lose. Golden State even increased that 2-0 lead into a 3-1 advantage that had previously never been overcome in NBA Finals history.

It’s always interesting to see professional athletes take interest in sports other than their own at a high level, but LeSean McCoy is doing that, and then some. Even more interesting, of course, may be the criticism McCoy will catch from teammates and fans alike if the Cavaliers once again storm back from a big deficit, only to defend their title this year.

That’s the other interesting angle; how much more money could McCoy be slated to win if he used the same logic that got the Cavs their first ever championship a year ago, to repeat during the 2017 NBA Finals? Quite a bit. This same bet over at Bovada right now, but in favor of Cleveland, would return double what McCoy is showing everyone – $132,000.

The risk is greater, but so is the reward.

No matter what happens, it’s interesting to see how vocal McCoy is about his bet and it makes regular sports bettors wonder just how much cash is being placed in favor of either of these teams. Is now the time to back the Cavs before a huge game three in Cleveland? Maybe, maybe not. But if the Cavs don’t mount a comeback and the Warriors win, LeSean McCoy (and possibly a lot of other people) stand to win a ton of money.

Wilson NFL Football

Browns Potentially Improve Defense in Trade For Safety Calvin Pryor

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The New York Jets continue to make up for past mistakes, while the Cleveland Browns keep kicking tires to see what sticks. Both sides lived up to their new mantras on Thursday, when the Jets handed over star safety Calvin Pryor in a trade for Cleveland linebacker, Demario Davis:

New York had long been threatening to move on from Pryor, who entered the league as a hard-hitting playmaker but disappointed when it came to high expectations and also struggled in coverage. The writing was officially on the wall when the Jets spent two draft picks on the safety position in the 2017 NFL Draft, making the 24-year old Pryor expendable. The deal brings back former Jet Demario Davis, who spent his first four years in the NFL with the Jets before signing with the Browns ahead of last season.

Good Deal For Both Sides

On the surface this trade doesn’t register as an offseason blockbuster deal, but it’s bigger than some NFL fans may initially think. Pryor was a big time prospect coming out of Louisville, as he’s always shown the ability to lay hard licks on receivers over the middle of the field and in theory can provide his defense with strong run support and an impact ball hawk secondary. Pryor really never lived up to expectations in either category, but used in the right setting with a Browns defense that added a ton of talent in free agency and the draft, there is a reasonable chance to could actually thrive.

It’s worth wondering how much anyone can get out of a guy who failed to deliver under two bright defensive minds like Rex Ryan and Todd Bowles, but Pryor is still just 24 and has the ability to further develop with the change of scenery. More importantly, it’s quite likely he will be used differently in Cleveland than he was in New York. Precisely how remains to be seen, but with the Browns drafting star safety Jabrill Peppers out of Michigan, the team could be looking for the right mix of talent at the back of their pass defense.

While Pryor could end up being a great fit for the Browns if all goes well, Davis returns to his old stomping grounds in this same trade. Davis was solid enough in his lone season with the Browns, and will come back to New York starting out as a rotational piece. Davis projects best on the inside of New York’s 3-4, but with David Harris and Darron Lee both likely operating ahead of him, it could be difficult to point out an obvious role for him initially.

That may be the case at first, but the Jets will certainly find a way to use a talented linebacker who knows their system and has shown well in the past. Davis isn’t a stud by any means, but he’s been more than passable and is a solid depth pickup considering Pryor was a player the Jets were probably eventually going to release for nothing.

Playoff Impact?

At first glance, this trade does very little for either side when it comes to Super Bowl odds or playoff expectations. The Jets are likely headed in the wrong direction after struggling in 2016, while the Browns really have nowhere to go but up after handing in an awful 1-15 run a year ago. The Browns are on their way to improving, however, as they drafted huge defensive assets in Myles Garrett and Jabrill Peppers and could potentially get some help from the hard-hitting Pryor if all goes well.

Neither team deserves a Super Bowl flier bet right now and betting on the Jets or Browns to make the playoffs doesn’t feel like a great bet, either. There could be money to be made if you feel either team is in the upward swing, however, as the Browns have a projected win Over/Under at 4.5 and the Jets enter 2017 with a projected win Over/Under at 5. Both teams remain solid bets to stick the Under in these bets over at Bovada, but Cleveland is the one adding talent in spades right now. They play in a tough AFC North division and have to deal with three viable playoff contenders in the Pittsburgh Steelers, Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals, but with added talent and a lower win total, they might make the better bet between these two bottom feeders.

Of course, even that bet feels like a mild reach, as these teams still aren’t good and won’t be contending for anything of merit in 2017. The Calvin Pryor trade could be a nice get for the Browns down the road, but it’s unlikely to translate into a big boost in wins in year one.

5 Reasons Why Adrian Peterson Might Be Done in the NFL

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The 2017 NFL Free Agency period has long been through it’s first wave. We are now into April and teams are starting to think about the draft and their first minicamps. Pretty soon everyone will be on to training camp, preseason and before we know it, the 2017 NFL season will be here.

Could it come with an iconic running back like Adrian Peterson being jobless? As crazy as it sounds, the knee-jerk reaction is “absolutely”. Peterson has officially been cast aside by the Minnesota Vikings, the only franchise he has ever called home. The Vikings permanently moved on from the aging back by bringing in former Oakland Raiders rusher Latavius Murray, signing him to a three-year deal even though they knew he had to undergo ankle surgery.

The risk of Murray, combined with the lethargic play out of Jerick McKinnon and Matt Asiata a year ago, tell us Minnesota doesn’t think much of Peterson. The fact that the 32-year old Peterson still has yet to change teams suggests Minnesota isn’t alone in doubting he can still be an effective rusher, either. But there’s a lot that goes into this thinking and ultimately, there’s plenty of evidence to suggest Peterson’s days in the NFL are already over. Here’s five reasons why that could be the case:

Peterson Still Thinks He’s a Star

Problem number one is Adrian Peterson, like most pro athletes, seems to think he’s indestructible and that nothing will keep him from getting back to his previously elite level. That’s been proven to simply not be the case, judging by his awful production in three appearances in 2016.

Peterson obviously got hurt last year (torn meniscus), but on top of that simply wasn’t an effective runner for the Vikings even when healthy. Peterson’s 1.9 yards per carry average tells us that, while he also couldn’t punch in a single touchdown on 40 touches.

That wasn’t all necessarily his fault and it’s not impossible for Peterson to bounce back and prove us all wrong, but at 32 it’s increasingly less likely. Most NFL teams see that logic and naturally don’t want to just hand they keys of their offense to a guy they have no loyalty to. Why trust an aging running back that you have zero ties to, simply because he used to dominate the league? The correct answer is you probably don’t.

Asking Price

Even if we were to believe Peterson was still the same back that put up 2,000+ rushing yards in 2012 (which he isn’t) or even the one that enjoyed a solid 2015 campaign (also probably not), Peterson clearly isn’t aware of his situation and the value of aged running backs – or running backs in general. Peterson is still demanding far too high of an asking price and probably wants more than a one-year “prove it” deal.

If Peterson were more receptive to deals prospective teams wanted to offer, he’d probably be signed by now. His history, physicality, past production and the sheer upside of Peterson not being washed up has to be appealing to a lot of playoff contenders. But it also has to come at the right price. There is a lot of risk involved with paying big bucks to any NFL player, let alone an aging running back who just missed 13 games due to injury.

Peterson’s asking price is too high and it needs to come way down. On top of realizing he’s probably not the star he once was, he needs to admit that he also doesn’t deserve boatloads of money at this stage of his career. If he realizes that, perhaps he’ll find a taker. If he doesn’t, that will undoubtedly be the top reason he never plays again.

Contenders Might Not Want Him

There’s also the very real possibility that even if Peterson drops his asking price, legit playoff contenders won’t care to add him to their roster. For one, most playoff contenders already have solid options in their offensive backfield, recently upgraded the positions or have concrete plans of adding young talent in the 2017 NFL Draft. Considering how deep running back is this year, that remains a distinct possibility.

Peterson’s ego and asking price are two huge obstacles, but whatever the reasons, teams simply may not need or want him. That could end up being a key reason why Peterson himself opts to call it a career. If not, he’d then be settling for less money, potentially a lesser role and working his butt off for a bad team that probably isn’t going anywhere. At 32, Peterson is one way or another on his last NFL legs and if he has any pride, he surely wants to go out a winner. The problem is most contending teams aren’t likely to help fulfill that desire.

Retiring a Viking

It’s unclear how much this means to Peterson, who very easily could love to deliver the Brett Favre treatment by staying in the NFC North and beating the Vikings to death twice a year. Green Bay and Detroit both have holes at running back, so at least for now that makes some sense. Peterson has even been attached to the Packers in rumors and Lions GM Bob Quinn said recently he believes Peterson still has something left to offer:

The flip side of that, though, is Peterson could decide that he’s not seeing the money, role, respect or winning opportunity he’d ideally prefer out on the open market. That could lead him to some self reflection and admitting to himself that retiring as a Viking and avoiding wasted years on bad teams simply isn’t worth the time and effort.

Skill-set is Obsolete?

Peterson’s age, asking price, pride and actual options all come into play, but one huge factor Peterson probably wouldn’t like to admit is that the game might be passing him by. Peterson has always been a big and explosive runner, but he’s never been an elite receiver out of the backfield, he’s had issues with pass protection, he certainly has had fumbling problems and we learned recently in Minnesota he can’t adapt to more pass-happy approaches that require him to take hand-offs out of the shotgun.

That’s all pretty damning evidence. As great as he was and possibly could still be, the 32-year old Peterson lacks the general skill-set you really want from your star runner. James White’s epic Super Bowl 51 performance showed us how the old running back mold has officially been shattered, too, and Peterson is really just an old, expensive early down rusher who might fumble away games in clutch moments. On top of that, he just might not be able to get the job done at a high level anymore.

Adrian Peterson could still very well find himself the perfection situation in 2017. His asking price could drop, he could be open to not being “the guy”, injuries could open up a big need for contending teams or maybe someone out there is waiting for the perfect moment to add him. Then again, we see big NFL stars drift away from the league all the time. Injuries, ego, money, roles and so much more can add up quickly and keep prospective teams away. If Adrian Peterson isn’t careful, he might just become another retirement statistic.

Super Bowl 51 Odds: 3 Sneaky Sleeper Bets to Target

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The NFL playoffs are just around the corner, with all six AFC playoff teams already accounted for going into the final week of the 2016 NFL regular season. Just two NFC playoff spots have yet to be decided and some playoff seeding needs to be finalized, but we are otherwise extremely close to knowing the entire playoff picture that will lead to Super Bowl 51.

It could end up being a wild ride, or the oddsmakers could look like geniuses. As expected, the two teams with the best records in the league – the Patriots and Cowboys – lead the way with the best Super Bowl odds. However, with an increase in wild card teams making deep playoff runs and top seeds rarely battling it out in the big game, it’s fair to wonder which sleeper teams could be the best bets to run the table.

Super Bowl 51 Odds

  • Patriots +190
  • Cowboys +325
  • Steelers +800
  • Packers +900
  • Seahawks +1200
  • Chiefs +1200
  • Falcons +1200
  • Giants +1400
  • Raiders +3300
  • Lions +5000
  • Texans +5000
  • Dolphins +6600
  • Redskins +6600
  • Buccaneers +20000

The Pats and Cowboys make sense as the top two favorites. They’re locked into division titles and both should have the #1 seed in their conference with a path to the Super Bowl going through their respective stadiums. None of that guarantees a trip to Super Bowl 51, but it doesn’t hurt their chances. On top of that, they’re both fantastic football teams that possess balanced offenses and solid defenses.

This might be one of the most wide open NFL playoff pictures we’ve seen in some time, however. Just about every time in this list has an interesting case. Some can light defenses up through the air, others can pound the rock on the ground and a few sport strong to elite defenses.

Seven of the league’s top-10 scoring defenses are in this group, while this list also boasts six of the league’s top-10 scoring offenses. The only teams to grace both top-10 lists are the Patriots and Cowboys, which probably isn’t overly shocking.

Still, the right team catching fire at the right time can be very dangerous. The Packers have won five straight games going into a huge week 17 finale with the Lions. Detroit and Green Bay have both been very dangerous on their home field. Seattle, Oakland and New York (one loss) have also been dominant on their home field. New England, not surprisingly, could end the year as the only team to go 8-0 on their home field.

This is an eclectic group, but no matter the approach you take, these are your options.

If you want to play it safe, Dallas and New England look like logical, reliable bets to at least get to the Super Bowl. The Pats are the favorite and it’s quite likely they get there and win. It’s kind of what they do.

However, where’s the fun fun in that? It could be much more fun (and much more profitable) to feel out that sneaky sleeper that could shock everyone, kind of like the Broncos did last year and the Giants have done in the past.

No Chance

Before we dive into the teams we really need to keep an eye on, let’s kill it for some other franchises that still cling to hope before week 17 comes to an end. The Buccaneers are the first to miss the boat, as they need to win and also require a laundry list of things to go perfectly right for them. It isn’t going to happen, and even on the off chance their miracle arrives, getting into the playoffs doesn’t guarantee them anything. From there they’d have to face a collection of Falcons, Seahawks and/or Cowboys teams that they probably won’t get past when everything is on the line.

Ditto for the Redskins. Kirk Cousins and co. might not even make it past the Giants this week, but if they do, a Packers win keeps them out of the playoffs. Even if Washington wins and Green Bay loses, they can’t be long for the NFL postseason. Cousins and co. sport a potent offense, but their defense doesn’t have enough bite and they’ve been fairly erratic, overall.

Barring a miracle, we can probably mail it in for the Dolphins, Texans and Raiders, too. They’re all down to their backup quarterbacks due to injury (or benching) and they might not have had what it takes to go the distance even before that happened. The lone sleeper there is Oakland, as some experts seem to think Matt McGloin can make some magic happen. We doubt it.

The other team we don’t have much faith in is Detroit. Their offense has been solid through the air, but they’ve struggled to produce any semblance of a running game for years now. They don’t defend well and they also haven’t proven they can win outside of Michigan (just 3-5 on the road).

That’s one piece of data we need to keep in mind, as we’ve see just two Super Bowl winners ever to hoist the Lombardi Trophy despite having a losing record at home or on the road. Since you either need to dominate at home to earn home field advantage or go out on the road to make up for where you went wrong, that tends to prove itself to be fairly accurately.

The jury is still out for the Packers and Giants – both of which can move their road records to 4-4 if they win this week.

Top Super Bowl Sleepers

The Seattle Seahawks would normally be first in line here, but they have a ton of issues that are going to be difficult to overcome. For one, they can’t win on the road. They’ll finish with a losing record away from home this year, plus they don’t protect Russell Wilson very well and they haven’t been elite on the ground. Even their trademark defense has had serious issues ever since star safety Early Thomas broke his leg.

Instead of Seattle leading the pack, the sleeper teams we need to consider betting on to win the Super Bowl are the following:

  • Steelers
  • Falcons
  • Chiefs

No matter what happens this week, all three are in and if things break just right, all three could be division champions with at least one home game. Playing at home may not matter for any of them, of course, as they’ve all proven they can win on the road or at home. They all have their weak points, but Kansas City boasts and elite defense and both the Steelers and Falcons can produce some of the most explosive plays the league has to offer. All three teams tend to play games very tightly and can run the ball when they need to, as well.

Of that trio, it shouldn’t be much of a surprise that the storied Steelers look like the most appealing sleeper. Not only is Pittsburgh battle tested from a tough AFC North division (yes, even in a down year), but they’re also one of the hottest teams in the league right now. It hasn’t always been pretty, but Big Ben and co. will end 2016 with at least 5 wins both at home and on the road and could enter the playoffs with a seven-game winning streak. Should that streak hold, it could end up tying the Pats for the longest current winning streak in the league.

Unlike what figures to be a pretty competitive NFC, the AFC feels watered down, too. Oakland lost Derek Carr, Houston and Miami were powder puff teams to begin with and the defending champion Broncos aren’t even in the playoffs. That very possibly leaves it down to the Steelers and Patriots and we can’t say for sure the Steelers won’t win if we get that meeting in the playoffs.

In fact, the two teams faced off earlier this year with Ben Roethlisberger sidelined due to injury, and New England still only ended up winning a close game 27-16 by tacking on a late score. With the Steelers healthy and red hot, they could be the biggest sleeper to bet on ahead of the start of this year’s playoffs.

While that may be the case, that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t toss a cursory bet or three at some other potential sleepers. After all, the Lions could be in the playoffs even if they lose this week and they’re sporting +5000 Super Bowl odds. Getting in is half the battle and should they magically run the table, they could return $5k for every $100 you bet.

Ultimately, we like the Patriots to pull down another title this year, but Super Bowl betting is always made better when a sleeper or two can break through the ranks. If someone is going to do it, we’d bet on it being Pittsburgh.

2017 Super Bowl Odds: Why We’re Headed For a Patriots vs. Giants Rematch

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The race for the 2017 Super Bowl isn’t yet officially on, but with just two weeks remaining in the 2016 NFL regular season, it certainly is getting close. For all we’ve learned through the first 15 weeks of action, it’s crazy how much is still left up in the air to be decided.

We know that the NFC and AFC are probably running through Dallas and New England, respectively. The Seattle Seahawks and Oakland Raiders are viable threats on either side, but at best, they’re likely the #2 seeds in their respective conferences.

Several divisions have yet to be figured out, however, and that bleeds into a still muddy wild card round. The Cowboys haven’t even officially secured the NFC East, as they got swept by the 10-4 Giants, who still have mild hopes of storming the castle. The Raiders and Chiefs have yet to decide the AFC West, too, while the NFC North, NFC South, AFC North and AFC South are all very much up for grabs. We know Seattle is in as NFC West champs and the Patriots are in as the AFC East winners, but beyond that, these last two weeks of pro football action could be pretty intense.

Even more, the seeding past the divisions could be dicey. As things currently stand, the Dolphins, Steelers, Texans and Chiefs join the AFC side, while the Falcons, Lions, Packers and Giants look to be in on the NFC side. However, given how up in the air everything still is, teams like the Ravens, Titans and Broncos have very realistic hopes of sneaking inside the AFC playoff race. For the NFC, the Buccaneers still have a clear path to the playoffs, while the Redskins are arguably the next team to look at that could mount a realistic run into postseason play.

2017 Super Bowl Odds

The best teams in the league that look locked in naturally have the top Super Bowl odds. Let’s take a look at every team that top gambling sites like Bovada are still giving life as we head into week 16:

  • Patriots +220
  • Cowboys +500
  • Seahawks +550
  • Steelers +1000
  • Raiders +1200
  • Packers +1200
  • Chiefs +1600
  • Falcons +1600
  • Giants +1600
  • Lions +2500
  • Ravens +5000
  • Texans +5000
  • Colts +5000
  • Titans +5000
  • Buccaneers +6600
  • Broncos +6600
  • Dolphins +7500
  • Redskins +10000
  • Vikings +15000
  • Panthers +25000

These are some very interesting Super Bowl odds, but for the most part they are spot on. At the top, New England and Dallas have the best records in football at 12-2 and are borderline locks for the #1 seed in their conference. Vegas obviously wouldn’t be shocked if we ended up getting just out third meeting between #1 seeds in this year’s Super Bowl.

Seattle isn’t a crazy Super Bowl favorite, either, as they still sport an elite defense and have reached two of the last three title games. Pittsburgh has a rich history with a league-leading six Super Bowl titles, plus they were among the preseason favorites to contend for a title. Ben Roethlisberger and co. have been bad on the road this year, though, and haven’t been a very consistent unit.

A Look at the Numbers

It gets a bit cloudy from there, as the Raiders look to be ascending as they’ve hammered down their first playoff appearance in over a decade, while the Packers look to have serious life after getting off to a disastrous 4-6 start.

If we look back at history, though, we can probably start weeding out the pretenders well before the playoffs arrive. For one, the Panthers, Vikings and Redskins all need a ton to go right for them to even have a chance at making the playoffs. We can probably safely rule them all out and as attractive as their Super Bowl odds look, they’re barely worth a cursory bet.

We can go one step further and take a look at two home/away facts. First, just one team in Super Bowl history has ever won it all after posting a losing record at home. The same can be said for road success, as just one other team has ever won a Super Bowl after posting a losing record on the road. Those interesting pieces of information could potentially eliminate Miami, Baltimore, Houston, Seattle, Detroit, Green Bay and Tampa Bay.

As impressive as all of those teams have been in their own regard, they all have a losing record either at home or on the road. For some, that could change before the final two weeks of the regular season are up, and perhaps that propels them into a new light. And we get it; one stat doesn’t guarantee anything. But if that data holds up and we don’t get a second team to defy history, we might as well write these teams off as bad Super Bowl bets right now.

Another interesting fact is that exactly two teams have won the Super Bowl in NFL history when their star running back paces the league in rushing yardage. That figures to be elite rookie rusher Ezekiel Elliott, who plays for the Cowboys. Of course, it was also a Cowboy (Emmitt Smith) who was one of the only two leading rushers to help their teams win the title the year they owned the league.

But say that data holds true. Then the beloved Cowboys wouldn’t be very “super” this year.

Suddenly the favored Patriots look like a pretty locked and loaded bet, and intermediate bets like the Chiefs, Steelers, Falcons and Giants start garnering Super Bowl betting interest.

Super Bowl 2017 Prediction

Of that group, the Patriots are the safe and easy call. The Chiefs, Steelers and Falcons feel harder to trust. Kansas City has a great defense and a balanced offense, but it’s fair to wonder if Alex Smith can get them deep into the playoffs. We know Big Ben can get the Steelers to the promised land. He’s done it thrice. However, Pittsburgh has been very erratic all year and may not have the defense needed to go win a 7th title.

Defense could be what is holding back the Falcons, too, as Matt Ryan is having an MVP-caliber season, but Atlanta still hasn’t consistently performed at a high level on the defensive side.

The scariest team might not be the Patriots, Cowboys or any of the other would-be top contenders. Instead, it might be the New York Giants. New York has been a very sneaky playoff team in past years and we can’t forget how they ran the table to take down a perfect Patriots team back in 2007. Their improved defense is a huge reason why we need to watch out for them, while the connection between Eli Manning and Odell Beckham Jr. is as good as ever.

New York does have one problem, of course: they can’t run the ball.

That could be an issue if they want to go deep, but that defense and their passing game might just be enough to get the job done. There’s something about a Patriots vs. Giants rematch that just feels like destiny this year, too.

Still, in a year with no clear-cut favorite, everything tends to circle back to Tom Brady and the Patriots.

Super Bowl winners tend to dominate at home, nearly 50% are #1 seeds and they also tend to rank in the top-10 in both defensive and offensive scoring. The Patriots answer the bell across the board. They’re undefeated on the road and of their two home losses, one came when Brady was still suspended. They’re set to be the AFC’s top seed and possibly the #1 seed in the league, and they also rank 6th in offense and 1st in scoring defense.

None of that means the Patriots can’t lose or will for sure get to the Super Bowl, but it’s starting to add up to a pretty clear picture. And that’s that the Patriots sure look and feel like the best team in the NFL right now. Vegas can be wrong when it comes to Super Bowl odds, but in a weird season, it feels like they’re getting it right. That could make now the best possible time to bet on the Pats, as their Super Bowl odds will only get less playable from here on out.

Ultimately, we see the Pats going all the way and there Tom Brady and co. will finally exorcise their demons by taking down the Giants to get the 5th Super Bowl in the Bill Belichick/Tom Brady era. It’s not necessarily an ending we all want to see in 2017, but it still will be impressive.

Prediction: Patriots 27, Giants 23

2017 NFL Draft: Myles Garrett and 6 Players That Could Go #1 Overall

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The 2017 NFL Draft talk has officially begun, as the College Football Playoff if set and eventually all eyes will be on the top college football prospects that will be turning pro. NFL teams are already starting to switch gears, as several teams like the Browns, Bears and others have already been eliminated from playoff contention and need to start thinking about the future at numerous positions.

Of course, as tantalizing as some prospects are, the most interesting aspect of the draft continues to be who will go first overall. That’s usually a slam dunk most years, as any team that is bad enough to get the top pick needs a quarterback, and then they draft one. That sure would be the case for the 0-13 Cleveland Browns, but when a team is winless it’s easy to suggest just about any player could be a strong candidate for that top spot.

The Browns understandably have a lot of holes to fill and with such a talent-starved team, there even has to be the idea of trading down out of the #1 pick. No matter what the Browns do, someone will be selecting a player at that top spot, which means at some point we’re going to have a pretty good idea as to who will be drafted #1 overall. That could change quite a bit between now and the actual 2017 NFL Draft, however, so let’s take a look at the five best candidates for the honors:

Myles Garrett, DE, Texas A&M

Garrett heads our list because he’s probably the most talented player going into the 2017 NFL Draft and he can arguably make the biggest impact for Cleveland right away. The Browns badly need help on a terrible defense and with Jamie Collins probably leaving in free agency, they could be left with very little in the pass rush department.

There is no guarantee Garrett would be the stud right away that he’s been in college, but there’s also no denying his upside and physical ability. The guy has a flat out beast, as he has the size, speed and power to explode off the edge and make plays against the run, as well as of course put serious pressure on the quarterback. If Cleveland wants a prospect that they can drop in immediately and see him progress on a weekly basis, they should think long and hard about spending their top pick on Garrett.

Mitch Trubisky, QB, North Carolina

Trubisky is a traditional passer with nice size and NFL arm strength and he put up some very impressive numbers with the Tar Heels, but the obvious question is if he’s ready. Trubisky has just one year as a starter under his belt and it’s possible his meteoric rise up the NFL Draft ranks won’t have him ready in 2017. For a team deep in rebuilding mode, that might not be a huge deal, especially given the fact that Trubisky is only scratching the surface of his talent and already looks so promising.

The reality is Hue Jackson – if he stays around – doesn’t have his future franchise quarterback. Cleveland would be wise to trade down and collect picks, while still hoping to land Trubisky, but perhaps they fear they won’t be able to. The interest is reportedly there, so Trubisky has to be near the top.

Leonard Fournette, RB, LSU

This one would greatly shake things up, as not many view Fournette as a serious contender for the top spot. Perhaps that’s because the running back position is devalued or because Fournette seemed to shrink in some tough matchups. Both could be true, but there is no denying his potential impact as a generational rusher that some liken to Adrian Peterson.

That might be a reach, but Fournette has been a dominant force at LSU, displaying brute toughness, good size, elite vision and exceptional athleticism. It’s the complete package that drops the jaws, as Fournette can bulldoze defenders, make them miss or run right by them. He has that rare blend of size/vision/speed that teams wished they had in a running back and it just might make people start to consider him for the #1 pick.

Running backs historically do not get picked that high, but he’s an elite talent and we’ve seen Todd Gurley and Ezekiel Elliott shoot up mock drafts over the last two years. Could Fournette go all the way to #1? Probably not, but if the Browns are there, few could blame them for a splash pick when all they have is Isaiah Crowell and Duke Johnson right now.

DeShone Kizer, QB, Notre Dame

If Cleveland is sitting at the top spot and is seriously thinking about taking a quarterback, Kizer has to be in the mix, in addition to Trubisky. Few have actually tossed Kizer’s name all the way up to the #1 pick conversation, but he’s among the best quarterbacks in this draft class an also offers considerable upside as a dual threat passer at the next level.

Kizer already seems to have the leg up on Clemson’s Deshaun Watson, and if he can show well ahead of the draft, it’s not crazy to imagine him rising about Trubisky. The real issue will be whether or not the Browns believe he’s the superior passing talent. From a pocket perspective, he probably isn’t. However, he might have the type of upside Trubisky may not possess.

Jonathan Allen, DE, Alabama

Myles Garrett is without a doubt the more electrifying talent, but if we’re looking at impact defensive prospects, there isn’t a great reason to not include Allen. Interior defensive linemen are often the meat and potatoes of NFL defenses, and Allen appears to have the size, hands and quickness to be a truly disruptive force on an NFL d-line.

There is the question as to exactly where he’d line up as a pro, but the beauty is that’s more of a luxury than a problem. Allen has the size, strength and athleticism to line up on the inside of a 4-3, or he could be used on the outside of a 3-4 line, ala J.J. Watt. That versatility is going to be huge for his draft stock, while his play in itself is balanced in that he can sniff out the run and get after the quarterback.

Allen isn’t quite the sexy prospect Garrett is and he’s obviously not a quarterback, but there is a strong argument that he’s the most balanced, NFL-ready talent on this list.

Jabrill Peppers, DB, Michigan

Jabrill Peppers isn’t being mentioned much in the #1 draft pick conversation, but perhaps he should be.

Peppers only has one career interception, but his physical ability, versatility and instincts could make him an elite defensive back at the next level. The real problem for an elite do-it-all talent like Peppers, of course, is where exactly he’ll be used on a regular basis in the NFL.

Peppers can light the field up as a return man, he can play running back, he can catch the football, he’s big enough to play linebacker and he could master cornerback or safety. He has such a unique build and set of skills, that he could be placed anywhere and eventually develop into a stud at the next level.

While Peppers hasn’t put up eye-popping numbers in college, he really hasn’t been asked to or put in the position to, either. Once teams get a good idea of how to best use Peppers, we’ll truly know his value for this draft.

Of course, what NFL teams really should do is just use him as the talent he is: a player who can do everything. That probably keeps him on the defensive side of the field, but he doesn’t have to strictly be a safety, linebacker or cornerback. He can do it all, and because he can do it at such a high level, he might end up being invaluable.

It could be hard to sell Peppers as the top pick in the 2017 NFL Draft, but in so many ways, it’s weird that he’s not being discussed there more than he is.

2017 NFL Draft – #1 Pick Prediction

Like them or not, these five prospects appear to be the overwhelming favorites to be picked #1 overall. Garrett leads the way across almost all mocks, but as long as a quarterback-needy team occupies that #1 pick, we certainly have to consider Trubisky, Kizer and possibly even a few other passers we maybe aren’t seriously acknowledging.

For now, the Browns are at the top spot and with this team being much more than a quarterback away from contending, Garrett looks like the safe, logical pick.

2017 NFL Draft: 5 Teams That Should Draft Christian McCaffrey

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The 2017 NFL Draft just got a lot more interesting – and deeper at running back – with news that Stanford star rusher Christian McCaffrey would be declaring following the 2016 college football season.

McCaffrey burst onto the scene as an explosive and versatile record-breaker as a freshman in 2015, but due to NCAA restrictions, wasn’t able to declare to go pro a year ago. After another strong college football season, McCaffrey finally made his move to the next level official, via Twitter:

McCaffrey tends to be a mixed bag in the eyes of draft scouts, as some don’t believe he has the long speed to dominate at the next level, nor the size. Instead, it’s possible many teams view him more as a versatile gadget player, return man and the ever popular “scat-back” type of runner. Of course, McCaffrey’s dominance in the Pac-12 says otherwise, as he even closed 2016 in style with 284 and 204 rushing yards in his last two regular season games.

In all, McCaffrey leaves Stanford as one of the best all-purpose players college football has ever seen, having burst onto the scene with over 2,000 rushing yards in 2015 and capping his career with over 1,600 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns this season.

Just see the damage the kid has done for yourself:

As great as McCaffrey has been at the college level, there are still question marks about his ability in the NFL. That will almost certainly keep him from being a top-10 draft pick, but early NFL mock drafts have him still being taken in the first round. The big question, of course, is where should he go? Let’s take a look at five teams that could use him and just might consider spending their first round pick on him in the 2017 NFL Draft:

Green Bay Packers

Green Bay’s case for drafting Christian McCaffrey (or any running back, for that matter) is undeniable. Eddie Lacy can’t stay healthy and is hitting free agency, James Starks hasn’t proven he can carry a full load and the team twice traded for running backs in 2016 that they have yet to actually use. Needless to say, the Packers need to go back to the drawing board at running back and McCaffrey would be an excellent start.

McCaffrey gives the Packers so many things they currently lack. He can either be the every down starter they don’t have, he can help in the return game and/or he can be useful on screens or in obvious passing situations. McCaffrey absolute can be a starter at the next level, but at the very minimum, he’s a versatile weapon. For a team lacking those, the Packers should hope the Stanford star is still available when they’re up in round one.

Indianapolis Colts

The Colts are in okay shape at the moment, but they lack upside in their rushing attack with veteran Frank Gore leading the way. Not only does Gore break few big plays, but his days are numbered as he fights father time. All Indy has behind him right now is Robert Turbin, too. Even if Gore stays around next year, the Colts need to start getting Andrew Luck more weapons and making their offense more balanced. McCaffrey can be a useful passing game weapon, eventually take over for Gore and in the interim help on special teams.

Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles certainly don’t lack running back depth, but they do lack a true go-to runner. Philly has been back and forth on veteran Ryan Mathews all season, and it’s unclear if he’s going to be the guy they trust beyond this season. Even if he is, Mathews had a sketchy injury history and it’s anyone’s guess how long his health will hold up.

Beyond Mathews, the Eagles really just have Wendell Smallwood and Darren Sproles. Sproles is still a highly versatile and explosive performer, but he’s small and getting old. McCaffrey could be a younger, bigger version of what Sproles brings to the table and the offense may not even miss a beat.

Baltimore Ravens

Some think McCaffrey could slip out of the first round or at least toward the bottom, and if that’s the case, the Ravens are among the top teams that could be beyond pick 20 and could use his services. Baltimore’s key issue on offense over the past two years has been running the football, and it’s gotten so bad that they released Justin Forsett and keep going back to the inconsistent Terrance West.

Baltimore plays in a very tough, smashmouth division and not being able to run the football has to be embarrassing. Drafting McCaffrey gets them back to what they love doing and even if he’s not the main rusher right away, he can impact the game in a variety of ways.

Detroit Lions

One other team that could snag McCaffrey later in round one (should they keep up their stellar play) could be the Detroit Lions. They do have some talent in their backfield, but next year could mark the third straight season where Ameer Abdullah and Zach Zenner fail to take over the starting gig. Instead of waiting around for one of their current ho-hum talents to start playing at a high level, the Lions may cover all the bases here and take one of the most versatile and explosive talents in the draft.

Christian McCaffrey is a borderline polarizing talent, but he has the goods to excel at the next level. Should he hear his name called in the first round of the 2017 NFL Draft, we’d bank on one of the aforementioned teams making the call. If we had to predict which one, the Packers might make the most sense. They probably would prefer to trade down and snag him in round two, but hopefully they’d realize he’s too good to slide that far.

Do you think you have a good idea of when/where Christian McCaffrey gets drafted? Tell us in the comments below!