The 2015 NBA Finals are almost here and they promise not to be boring. We really didn’t have many intense series in these playoffs, as the first round clash between the Clippers and Spurs was probably the best one by far and the crazy comeback by the Houston Rockets in round two is the only other series that truly stands out. That being said, the two best teams in the league appear to have made it to the final series of the year.

The coolest thing about this year’s NBA Finals is who is in it, as the Cleveland Cavaliers go for their first title ever and the Golden State Warriors try to win for the first time in 40 years. With the NBA generally dominated by just a handful of teams, it’s a nice change of pace.

Neither the Cavs or Warriors will simply be glad to be here, though. Stephen Curry and co. badly want to live up to their #1 overall seeding and get the Warriors another title and LeBron James would love to lead an under-manned Cavs team to the promised land. It’s going to be an explosive series, so let’s break it down with overall odds and our pick for who will win it all:

Odds to Win

There are some weid NBA Finals odds to think about, as Golden State enters with crazy 19-38 odds after losing just three games throughout the post-season. They’ve also lost just three games at home at Oracle Arena all year and have the league’s MVP, so it’s no shocker they’re the favorites. Cleveland is at 21-10 odds, which makes sense considering we’re down to just two squads.

MVP?

Usually the winner of the Finals gets MVP and it’s probably safe to say it’s between Stephen Curry or LeBron James. If you had to pick one that is the MVP right now of these playoffs, it’d have to be a toss-up, right? Well, Curry enters the NBA Finals with 10-19 odds to win MVP (makes sense, since the Warriors are favored to win it all) and James is right behind him with 7-5 MVP odds. Want a dark horse? Try Kyrie Irving (12-1) or Klay Thompson (11-1).

Final Answer

Full disclosure: I want the Warriors to win. And you should know that the teams I want to win, usually don’t. I also just don’t think LeBron James can be denied. The Cavs probably should have lost to the Chicago Bulls. J.R. Smith was suspended the first two games of that series, Kevin Love was gone and Chicago was the better team, overall. Cleveland won it fairly easily. Kyrie Irving was severely banged up going into the Eastern Conference Finals and missed two games, and despite not having home court advantage and facing what seemed to be a more well-rounded and balanced Hawks team, the Cavs pulled off the sweep.

One could say that King James has done it all himself, or that he’s made everyone 10x better than they usually would be. You could also say the Cavs have had a fairly easy route by traditional standards (sweep over weak Celtics team, the Bulls were a ticking time bomb and the Hawks are the softest #1 seed of all-time, it seems). That, or Cleveland got past a sneaky Boston team, out-fought the Bulls and made the Hawks change their own style of ball so fast it got them swept.

Golden State is a great team. They play sound defense, have a superstar point guard and can score in bunches. But they’re still young and Cleveland appears to have all of the momentum. The odds don’t say it, but I have a feeling the Cavaliers win the title.

Pick: Cavaliers in 6

The Cleveland Cavaliers closed out the Atlanta Hawks with a 4-0 sweep. The Golden State Warriors are now on the clock. With the Cavs already advanced to the 2015 NBA Finals, the pressure is now on Stephen Curry and co. to put the death grip on the Houston Rockets and move on to the final round of the playoffs.

That might be easier said than done, as Houston has been a tough out this post-season and has won their last four elimination games. While a 3-0 hole is beyond insurmountable on paper (no NBA team has ever come back from a 3-0 hole in the playoffs), if anyone is going to do it, it might just be these Rockets.

Houston is without a doubt at their best with their backs against the wall, and with the season on the line they’ll surely be giving it their all as they try to leave nothing on the court. It could be a battle of desperation and panic, but all of the pressure truly is on the Warriors to close out the series. The only silver lining? They get to try to do it at home at Oracle Arena tonight.

Houston Rockets (2) @ Golden State Warriors (1) on ESPN at 9:00 pm ET

Golden State has lost one game on their home floor during their post-season run, while they only lost two other times at Oracle Arena during the regular season. None of those losses have come against the Rockets. Houston appears to be on life support with a 3-1 deficit in this series, but there is that shadow of a doubt that is hanging around because of their epic comeback in round two against the L.A. Clippers.

They also can probably take solace knowing they’re too far below Golden State, as they narrowly lost both games in Golden State (one by just a point) and only got blown out once. They were the ones who handed out the blowout in game four and suddenly this series has that odd feel that we got last round. Then again, the Warriors seem to have more mental toughness than the Clippers on paper and regardless of what the Rockets have done well in this series, containing Stephen Curry at no point has been remotely a strength.

The Warriors are understandably the favorite here (-10) and it’s entirely plausible that the Rockets could cave and get destroyed on the road. I don’t buy that. I was pretty shocked to see Houston get obliterated in game three, but if they were just going to lie down and die, they wouldn’t have won game four like they did (or at all). I expect a big fight from them, as Dwight Howard and James Harden aren’t about to go out like a bunch of chumps. Whether or not their role players show up will be the difference for them, but on the road, I’m guessing they won’t. Heck, even if they don’t, I just think the Warriors are the better team when it comes to fundamentals, closing games/series and execution in the crunch. I expect the Rockets to beat the spread, making them the ATS pick, but I love the Warriors straight up. I think the Total (216.5) is a tad ambitious, but this series has an explosive tendency and this is a massive game so I think it’s worth chasing.

Pick: Warriors 109, Rockets 107

A strong argument can be made that the Atlanta Hawks got totally boned in a game three loss, when star center Al Horford was tossed for elbowing Matthew Dellavedova. Not only was one of their best two-way players gone at the break, but Dellavedova oddly didn’t get ejected, despite also committing a foul that would have otherwise always been classified as a flagrant two. That’s the reffing we’re seeing in these NBA playoffs, and we saw it again last night when Dwight Howard back-handed Andrew Bogut and was able to remain in the game.

The lack of consistency of calls this year is beyond annoying. Those trying to make some cash via NBA betting know it more than anyone else. On top of the inconsistent decision-making by the refs, these wacky calls are impacting the game and the games themselves are increasingly tougher to predict. Few would have thought both of these series would have been 3-0 leads going into Monday night. And now that they were, even fewer would have given the Rockets a chance to stay alive. James Harden ensured that with 45 points, and it’ll be interesting to see if the Rockets have another historic comeback up their sleeve. The Hawks will need one if they’re to beat the Cavaliers, and their journey starts tonight.

Atlanta Hawks (1) @ Cleveland Cavaliers (2) on TNT at 8:30 pm ET

The Cavs have dominated NBA picks lately, as they’re 6-0 straight up over their last six games and have gone 3-1 against the spread so far in these Eastern Conference Finals. The one game they didn’t nail the spread was game three, when the Hawks battled to a 114-111 OT loss. That very well could have been Atlanta’s last gasp, as they dropped both of their home games and are now in an ugly 0-3 hole.

Exactly zero teams have ever come back from a 3-0 deficit in NBA playoff history and that’s not changing against LeBron James in this series. King James has been a machine in this matchup and he was no better than his last game when he put up a triple double like we’ve never seen before – 37 points, 18 boards and 13 dimes. I doubt he goes off like that again, and I also doubt this game four is remotely close to what we saw in game three. The Cavs have even found a high level of success against Altanta despite missing Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving (past two games). Throw in a less than 100% DeMarre Carroll and Kyle Korver (out for playoffs) and the Hawks look to be a sinking ship. The boat goes to the bottom tonight.

Just because Atlanta is toast doesn’t mean you can’t have fun with this matchup, though. These two have combined to top the Total three out of four tries, so that’s worth a shot tonight, while the Cavs ATS and straight up is a solid bet. Atlanta against a +8 line isn’t the worst try ATS, either, but we’re siding with the Cavaliers in every way tonight.

Pick: Cavs 108, Hawks 97

The 2015 NBA playoffs got a little nastier on Sunday night, as Al Horford got tossed and the Atlanta Hawks couldn’t overcome the loss of their big man in an intense 114-111 OT thriller. LeBron James went nuts with 37 points, 18 rebounds and 13 dimes as he willed the Cavs to within one game of this year’s NBA Finals. Anyone conducting NBA betting may have been a little annoying by the refs impacting the game, and they surely aren’t alone. That being said, if you followed along with our NBA picks to close out the weekend, you nailed the Hawks ATS and the Cavs as the straight up pick.

Tonight we have the Western Conference Finals possibly coming to a close when the Golden State Warriors go into Houston to hand the Rockets a 4-0 sweep. That is certainly something we should all deem possible – if not likely – given the Warriors’ commaning 3-0 lead and how the Rockets took a dive in a horrifying 35-point blowout loss in game three. Let’s take a closer look at this matchup and see if the Rockets can avoid the broom.

Golden State Warriors (1) @ Houston Rockets (2) on ESPN at 9:00 pm ET

The Rockets have lost in three awful ways so far in this series. They’ve lost trying to run with the Warriors, they’ve lost a borderline defensive battle that came down to the final possession and they’ve lost getting absolutely smoked. Houston has shown they have the talent to play at Golden State’s level, but we’ve yet to see them execute when it matters most. Part of you wants to cheer for that Rockets team that showed up and went on a 3-0 run against the Clippers, but the other half of you knows these Warriors aren’t like L.A. when it comes to closing out and mental toughness.

Houston has really dug itself a hole here tonight, and it’s highly likely the Warriors fill in the dirt and leave them for dead. The most obvious threat – Stephen Curry – has managed to tear Houston’s defense apart each game thus far, as he’s put up 33, 34 and 40-point barages. Even if the Rockets find a way to finally slow him down even for this one game, the Rockets would still have to worry about the rest of the Warriors. Golden State isn’t an insane favorite tonight (-4.5) but enough to take both ATS and straight up. If Houston was going to do anything in this series, they probably would have made more noise the other night. It looks like they very well could go quietly into the night.

Pick: Warriors 104, Rockets 99

The Atlanta Hawks entered the Eastern Conference Finals as the top seed with home court advantage. They enter Cleveland banged up and with their backs against the wall, down 2-0. Atlanta gave away their home court edge with two losses to start this series, and also lost sharpshooter Kyle Korver (ankle) in the process. With DeMarre Carroll also not 100% and the Hawks in general not playing their usual game, the East’s best team suddenly is on the ropes. The question, of course, is if they’ll fight back and extend this series tonight, or if they’ll get one step closer to getting swept.

Let’s break down tonight’s game three matchup and see which team you should roll with in NBA betting:

Atlanta Hawks (1) @ Cleveland Cavaliers (2) on TNT at 8:30 pm ET

A healthy Hawks squad could march into Cleveland, revert to their team-first style of offense and defense and hand the Cavs a home loss of their own. But they’re down a key offensive piece in Korver, Carroll isn’t himself and the Cavs don’t really seem like they can be stopped. Now the series has shifted to Quicken Loans Arena, where it’s extremely doubtful the Cavs suddenly lose their footing.

LeBron James isn’t the only problem for the Hawks, and that’s the scary part. Atlanta dropped a second straight game at home in game two, and Kyrie Irving didn’t even play. Worse yet, it really wasn’t even close. Atlanta’s defense hasn’t been as great as it was during the regular season, and largely due to their style changing completely. Instead of rotating to open shooters without hesitation, Atlanta is paying way too much attention to what James does. They’ll close on him and let Cleveland shooters kill them from the outside. It’s happened two games in a row on their home floor, and there is little to suggest it changes now.

On top of all of that, the Hawks also haven’t provided much of a punch offensively, and that was before Korver went down for the count. Using far too much dribbling and penetration with a lack of purpose, the Hawks appear to be completely different than they were during the regular season. The unraveling should continue tonight in Cleveland where the Cavs are heavy -9 favorites. I actually like the Hawks against the spread in this one, as I see them having more fight than caving when facing a disastrous 3-0 hole. The Cavs should squeak it out in the end, though, inching ever closer to a sweep.

Pick: Cavs 106, Hawks 102

The Golden State Warriors have done everything right en route to a commanding 2-0 lead in the Western Conference Finals. The Houston Rockets gave them a minor scare in game one and a legit scare in a one-point defeat in game two. While a sweep has to be on the mind for everyone involved, the Rockets have done enough to this point to show that they belong at this stage. Now back home in Houston, it’s entirely possible they can regroup and find a way to get in this series. Let’s break down how they can do that and see if the Rockets have a real shot at being the safer pick when the 2015 NBA playoffs continue on Saturday night:

Golden State Warriors (1) @ Houston Rockets (2) on ESPN at 9:00 pm ET

The Rockets have tried to beat the Warriors two ways – by running with them in game one and slowing them down in game two. They were close both times, but ultimately neither worked. A huge reason why is because no matter how close the Rockets got, Stephen Curry (67 total points in this series) kept burning them. What makes it worse is that Klay Thompson hasn’t even caught fire yet, so it’s possible Houston hasn’t even had to handle Golden State’s offense at it’s best. Toss in a banged up Dwight Howard (although he looked good in game two), and there’s plenty of reason to cave on Houston.

All of that being said, the Rockets are so close to a win that they can taste it and now they’re back home where they’re much more comfortable. They can worry about beating Golden State at Oracle Arena in game six. Right now they just need to extend this series. The best way to do that is to allow Golden State to play at a faster pace and to continue playing sound defense to help force turnovers. When the game gets faster there is the obvious risk of the Warriors sliding into their element and hitting every shot they take, but the speed also creates more passes and more turnovers. When that happens, Houston tends to be at it’s best and it can get out in transition and get easy baskets.

Another key aspect is James Harden getting to the free throw line and penetrating to create for others. He’s been solid at it, but he messed up big time at the end of game two and he needs to be smarter and have a plan of attack when he works his way inside. Stopping Curry is obviously at the top of the list, but that seems impossible at this point. Houston may just want to force him to take those tough shots even more than usual and hope they finally stop falling.

Houston’s backs are against the wall and they are going to be +1 underdogs in this one. That makes this one basically a pick’em game and a really tough game to feel good about when it comes to NBA betting. That being said, we know these Rockets have a lot of fight and judging by these first two games, they are not a complete level below the Warriors. I think they can get a win and with the razor thin line here, you might as well go for it. I’ll take Houston straight up and ATS, but the 214 Total might be a tad too ambitious. These two could combine for an insane, explosive Total eventually, but so far I’m not seeing it.

Pick: Rockets 105, Warriors 102

The Houston Rockets gave the Golden State Warriors quite the scare, but in the end they still dropped their second game of the Western Conference Finals and handed the Warriors a commanding 2-0 lead. We saw the win coming for Golden State, and with Dwight Howard in we also liked the Rockets to beat the spread. They did and Golden State won, so our NBA picks move up to 42-20 during the NBA playoffs.

Things get a little more difficult tonight, as this Hawks/Cavs series is tough to gauge. Cleveland shocked us a bit by going into Atlanta and winning game one, but now they could be without Kyrie Irving in game two. The Cavs would actually be wise to rest their star point guard, as they already have a 1-0 edge and they’ll need him throughout this series and if they reach the NBA Finals. Keep tabs on that, and read on for a breakdown of tonight’s matchup.

Cleveland Cavaliers (2) @ Atlanta Hawks (1) on TNT at 8:30 pm ET

As big as the potential absence of Kyrie Irving is for the Cavs, DeMarre Carroll’s knee injury might be an even bigger deal for the Hawks. Carroll reportedly suffered a hyper-extension of his knee in game one and was seen sporting a brace at shoot around on Friday morning. That could mean he still gets to play, but he won’t be at 100% even if he does. That’s a big hit to the Hawks, both offensively and defensively. Carroll slashes well, plays great defense and can knock down three’s. More importantly, if he’s out or not quite himself, Cleveland can focus on stopping Jeff Teague and the other top Hawks options.

On paper, Irving and Carroll probably wash each other out and the Hawks have the edge because they’re at home with their backs against the wall. Their defense actually wasn’t bad in the second half in game one, but they couldn’t match the Cavs on offense. That needs to change tonight, or else this series is probably headed for a sweep. I tend to think the Hawks just let one get away from them and they’re better than they’ve showed in general throughout these playoffs. After all, they’ve been getting off to slow starts in every series, so they just need to do as they always have done – respond.

That should mean a monumental effort from big men Al Horford and Paul Millsap. Millsap actually played really good defense on LeBron James and he’ll surely stick on him going forward. Horford was weak in game one and against Timofey Mozgov, that’s just unacceptable. I like for him to step up and the key could be Kyle Korver, who has really been absent for about seven games now. If Irving is out, the Hawks really only need to worry about LeBron James and I sincerely doubt J.R. Smith is going to drop another eight trey bombs on ATL. The Hawks are narrow -1.5 favorites at home and with the magnitude of this game, I like that spread and the Hawks straight up, as well. Both of these teams are capable of playing good defense and they’re a little short-handed/hindered offensively, so I’d also bet against the Total (196).

Pick: Hawks 97, Cavs 92

The NBA Conference Finals are in full force, as the Golden State Warriors held off the Houston Rockets last night to open up a 1-0 lead in their series. That was to be expected, and we notched our first correct pick of the Conference Finals. In addition, we nailed the Rockets against the spread and the Warriors straight up. Tonight’s matchup between the Cleveland Cavaliers and Atlanta Hawks is a little more difficult to gauge, but we’ll try to make the best of it as we attempt to add another win to our 41-19 playoff record.

Cleveland Cavaliers (2) @ Atlanta Hawks (1) on TNT at 8:30 pm ET

On paper, from a team perspective, the Hawks should beat the Cavaliers. Kevin Love is gone, Cleveland’s defense isn’t really elite, the depth doesn’t match up and Atlanta owned Cleveland during the regular season (3-1). Add in that the Hawks have home court advantage and appear to be healthier at the moment (both Kyrie Irving and Tristan Thompson are ailing), you’d be silly to pick against them.

Of course, oddsmakers don’t agree. LeBron James and all of his fury being on the other side provides a looming, grey cloud that just won’t go away. James alone is scaring the books into giving Atlanta just a -1 advantage in game one of this Eastern Conference Finals series. That seems like a slight on the Hawks, and maybe it is, but the reality is no one knows what is going to win out – James as a one-man wrecking crew, or a balanced Hawks team sharing the rock.

James lost his mind in his round two demolition of the Chicago Bulls, while the Hawks have turned things on lately and are slowly starting to look like the team that won 60 games and took the top seed in the east. None of that will matter if James has his way in Atlanta tonight, but there is a lot of evidence that he might not. The Hawks have a very capable defender in DeMarre Carroll, who will surely be all over him, while center Al Horford can focus more on team defense that wasting all of his energy on a stud offensive presence in the middle of the paint (Cleveland doesn’t have a Brook Lopez or Marcin Gortat).

The key to this game and probably this series will be whether or not the Hawks can push the pace and hit their outside shots. Kyle Korver was dreadful in the second round and Cleveland topped the Bulls thanks to a predictable Chicago offense and a game that settled into half court battles. If Atlanta can push the tempo and have open shooters knock down shots, I think they can take this series. And even if they don’t, I think they can at least make that happen at home in game one. Game one will be a great way to gauge this series, but going into it we know the Hawks are the better two-way team and have had a lot of success against the Cavs specifically. I like the Total (197) tonight with two very solid offensive teams on paper, while the Hawks are my pick straight up and ATS.

Pick: Hawks 104, Cavaliers 101

Stephen Curry and James Harden finished one and two in the NBA MVP voting. Their teams are seeded one and two in these 2015 NBA playoffs and once again they’ll finish one and two when it comes to finishing out the year from the Western Conference’s side. The question, though, is in what order?

While Curry locked up this year’s MVP award, he has been able to refocus and put away the Memphis Grizzlies. Next up are the Rockets, who Curry and co. demolished (4-0) during the regular season. Houston should come in tired, too, after just wrapping up their seven-game series with the L.A. Clippers. Their crazy comeback from a 3-1 grave could also be seen as a type of grit that is to be feared, or it could be the last gasp from a team that probably should have been eliminated by now.

It’s impossible to know for sure, but on Tuesday night we start to find out who the best team out west truly is. Let’s break down the matchup and see who the safest pick for game one in the Western Conference Finals is:

Houston Rockets (2) @ Golden State Warriors (1) on ESPN at 9:00 pm ET

The Rockets haven’t beaten the Warriors at all this year and they’ve got to be dead tired after winning three straight games to escape the Clippers in round two. That being said, they could simply be hitting their stride, as James Harden and Dwight Howard have both been lights out during this wild ride. More importantly, their bench has been fantastic, as Trevor Ariza and Corey Brewer are bringing defensive energy and hitting outside shots.

All of that continuing at Oracle Arena is a lot to ask for a team that played their last game on Sunday, though. The Warriors, meanwhile, took care of a good Memphis team in six games and has looked pretty unstoppable over their last three games, as well. Now they’re back at home with a white hot Curry and Klay Thompson just itching to get going, himself. Andrew Bogut and Draymond Green can hold down the fort down low to help slow Dwight Howard, while the Warriors’ overall team defense is something for the Rockets to fear. And their offense? Well, forget about it.

Houston is going to be a good bet to cover the ridiculous spread (Warriors favored by -10.5), so if you’re going ATS, the Rockets are probably the way to go. They’ll be tired and they probably won’t win, but they’re relentless and this is likely going to be an explosive series from an offensive perspective. Because of that, at least for game one, I’m liking Houston ATS and this is a great series to chase the Total, too.

If we’re going straight up, though, I like the Warriors, all the way. They’ve lost three freaking games at home all year. Enough said.

Pick: Warriors 107, Rockets 101