All posts by Kevin

NBA Picks: Rockets, Cavs Try to Avoid 2-0 Holes

The Golden State Warriors lost as the Oracle Arena for the first time since January and just the third time all year. Needless to say, we didn’t see it coming as we split last night’s NBA picks (now 32-12 in the playoffs). Atlanta did well to tie up their series, and now two more teams have a shot at notting up their series tonight, as well. Can the Cavaliers and Rockets take care of business, or will they fall into dangerous 0-2 holes on their own floor?

Let’s break down both matchups to find out:

Chicago Bulls (3) @ Cleveland Cavaliers (2)

We saw a pretty obvious weakness for the Cavs in game one: they were a lot better with Kevin Love. Despite receiving a lot of unwarranted criticism for not dominating as the third scorer in Cleveland, Love’s outside shooting and rebounding were sorely missed right away, as the Cavs struggled to rebound effectively and didn’t have much scoring outside of LeBron James, Kyrie Irving and Iman Shumpert. Their offense came mostly in spurts and two huge runs, and ultimately they fizzled down the stretch.

The Bulls also displayed superior defense on the inside and the perimeter, and Cleveland is going to have to shy away from small ball to tie this series back up. That should mean more Tristan Thompson and Timofey Mozgov, and less Mike Miller. That, or LeBron James could just man up and slide into Love’s power foward position. That’s not happening for some reason, so the Cavs are only going to make life harder on themselves. LeBron James said he’d be more aggressive in game two, but with Jimmy Butler locked in on keeping him from blowing up, I’m not sure it matters. I’m sure we get strong efforts from James and Irving, but Cleveland’s defense isn’t good enough to survive lulls on offense – especially when Derrick Rose is playing as well as he played in game one. We might have to wait until J.R. Smith returns in game three to see if the Cavs have a real shot in this series.

I can definitely see James putting Cleveland on his back with 40+ points and squeaking out a win, but the Bulls know they have Cleveland right where they want him. They’re under-manned and extremely vulnerable and if Chicago is going to win this series they probably need to deliver the knockout punch with a big win tonight.

Pick: Bulls 108, Cavs 104

Los Angeles Clippers (3) @ Houston Rockets (2)

Game one was crazy, as Chris Paul sat out (hamstring) and the Clippers still won – by 16. Houston looked sluggish as James Harden turned the ball over nine times and Corey Brewer and Josh Smith were lifeless off the bench (combined 6-24 shooting). The bench will be better tonight in a must-win game, while Paul is looking likely to miss a second straight game. I don’t take the Rockets for being quite as soft as they appeared to be in game one, and they have to know that if they go down 2-0 this series is probably over.

A huge issue for Houston was not keeping Dwight Howard involved down the stretch (zero shots in final seven minutes) and it looked like they just gave up after L.A went up big with about four minutes to go. We’ll see their true grit tonight if they’re faced with a similar situation late in this contest. I doubt that happens, though, as Harden and Howard should be quite motivated to avoid embarrassment for a second straight game.

If Paul plays, it’s a toss up. If he’s out again, the Rockets should find a way to take care of business and even this series, 1-1.

Pick: Rockets 106, Clippers 101

Wizards Marcin Gortat

NBA Playoff Picks For Tuesday, 5/5

We swung and missed with our NBA picks to get the week going on Monday night, going 0-2 and dropping to 31-11 in these playoffs. It was hard to see last night’s results coming, as the Cavaliers and Rockets both lost at home to go down 1-0 in their respective second round series. Chicago rising up and taking down a Cavs team sans Kevin Love and J.R. Smith is understandable. In fact, after seeing that game, we wouldn’t be overly shocked if a suddenly lost Cavaliers team dropped this series in six games or less. Houston getting handled by a slew of Los Angeles Clippers backups on their home floor, though, well, that’s just crazy.

The Rockets looked rusty and also ill prepared, as they took on a much tougher team after having a first round breeze against the Dallas Mavericks. Even without Chris Paul, the Clippers were tough to handle defensively and somehow put up a whopping 117 points. It’s probably a safe bet the Rockets storm back and win the second game at home to tie this series, 1-1, but this wasn’t a good start.

The Bulls and Clippers merely followed suit of what the Wizards did in game one of their series against the Atlanta Hawks, and surely hope to do again tonight in game two. The Warriors, meanwhile, look to be the only home team in these remaining four semifinals games to hold serve on their home floor. Considering Golden State has lost just two games at home all year, that remains likely. We have betting to do, though, and tonight’s two games deserve a closer look:

Washington Wizards (5) @ Atlanta Hawks (1)

Pretty much everyone was surprised when the Wizards took the Hawks down in game one. Atlanta is usually extremely tough to beat on their home floor, had appeared to get in a groove at the end of their round one series and had Washington down 10 at the break. John Wall and co. stormed back, though, and suddenly the Hawks are firmly against the ropes. A Wizards win tonight would send Atlanta reeling into game three, when the series shifts to D.C. That just isn’t going to happen. An argument can be made that these Hawks are the weakest #1 seed the NBA playoffs have seen in some time, but they’re still better than people give them credit for and they probably should have figured out a way to win game one. With their season on the line, they’ll certainly have to do that in game two.

Pick: Hawks 106, Wizards 102

Memphis Grizzlies (4) @ Golden State Warriors (1)

Mike Conley could return tonight, but his status has given birth to mixed reports. We can’t count on him to start or even play, and even if he does hit the court he could be limited or rusty. The point guard spot isn’t likely to ever be an advantage for the Grizz in this series, as Stephen Curry is beyond a handful and he’s far from the only Warriors player to worry about.

The reality is that Memphis is behind the eight ball in this series already and winning in Golden State is probably not a realistic goal. If it’d happen, Memphis would have to hope for a game seven and get it done then. Unfortunately, Klay Thompson has owned Memphis all season and Andrew Bogut should do a solid job on their best player, center Marc Gasol. I expect a little more fight out of the Grizz than we saw in game one, but the end result will be the same.

Pick: Warriors 104, Grizzlies 98

NBA Playoff Picks For Monday, 5/4

We split Sunday night’s playoff games to get to 31-9 through our first 40 NBA playoff game picks, but more round two games are on their way to confuse us all even more. Few probably saw the Wizards going into Atlanta and getting an early win last night, but perhaps we should have seen it coming after they did just that in Toronto to start their previous series. Are we set up for the Chicago Bulls or Los Angeles Clippers to do that tonight? It’s tough to gauge, but that’s what we’re here for. Let’s break down tonight’s two NBA playoff matchups and see who the most reliable picks are:

Chicago Bulls (3) @ Cleveland Cavaliers (2)

Joakim Noah said he’s actually looking forward to going to Cleveland, where an old rivlary will begin anew when the Bulls take on LeBron James and his Cavaliers. It’s tough to figure out who the true favorite is in this series, as the Bulls are completely healthy on the surface, but only really looked great in one game in round one against the Bucks. Cleveland, on the other hand, is down Kevin Love for the rest of the playoffs and won’t have J.R. Smith for the first two games of round two. Are Love and Smith’s absences too much for Cleveland to overcome in a tough home game against the Bulls? Logic says yes, but Chicago has been far from dominant this year and Cleveland edged them out for the Central division title during the regular season. Chicago could end up taking this series, but I don’t expect them to get off to a hot start. That will be the Cavaliers, behind a big first game out of King James.

Pick: Cavs 105, Bulls 101

Los Angeles Clippers (3) @ Houston Rockets (2)

I love what I saw from the Clippers in round one. They displayed tremendous heart and fight, while their starting unit flashed championship ability. Their depth is a huge concern, though, as is the health of Chris Paul heading into this series. And that’s before we factor in the dynamic duo of James Harden and Dwight Howard. I think at least for game one it’s all too much to expect a big win out of the Clips, but I do like this series to go the full seven games. Chris Paul should still show up tonight, but he may be limited due to his hammy issue. Look for Houston to take care of business at home to get things started.

Pick: Rockets 109, Clippers 106

Stephen Curry

NBA Playoff Picks For Sunday, 5/3

Round two of the 2015 NBA playoffs has finally arrived. The Clippers capped an intense round one by barely beating the defending champion Spurs last night, and we can only hope we see another series like that throughout the rest of the playoffs. Could we see the start of it right away on Sunday afternoon? Perhaps, as we’re graced with two interesting series when the Hawks host the Wizards and the Warriors welcome the Grizzlies to the Oracle Arena.

Let’s break down the action tonight as we stroll in with a 30-7 playoff record and get ready for an exciting second round:

Washington Wizards (5) @ Atlanta Hawks (1)

The Hawks rebounded from a sluggish start in round one to finish off the Nets with two strong outings, while the Wizards have been resting for a while now thanks to a 4-0 sweep over the Toronto Raptors. One of the big questions going into this series will be if the Hawks have an advantage being in a better groove, or if the time off will make Washington the fresher team. It may not matter to start, as Atlanta is at their best on their home floor this year and really looked to be hitting their stride over the past two games.

John Wall and co. looked great in their first round series, but the Hawks are far better than the Raptors – especially on defense. Look for the Wiz to keep it close and interesting, but the Hawks to ultimately close out with the win.

Pick: Hawks 106, Wizards 102

Memphis Grizzlies (4) @ Golden State Warriors (1)

Golden State gets a tough matchup in round two, as a strong defensive-minded Grizzlies squad comes to town. Memphis has the tools to slow this game down and keep it close, but the Warriors also tend to be a very strong defensive team. No Mike Conley is probably the key to the start of this series, while the Warriors have lost just two games at home all year long. Memphis might give it a strong go despite being depleted, but with Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol as their only true muscle, they should be under-manned and out-gunned in game one.

Pick: Warriors 108, Grizzlies 97

Chris Paul and Stephen Curry

NBA Playoff Picks: Clippers vs. Spurs Preview

The first round of the 2015 NBA playoffs finally draws to a close tonight, as the one and only full seven-game series concludes when the San Antonio Spurs visit the Los Angeles Clippers at the Staples Center. This has been an extremely back and forth series with no clear advantage or momentum, although it’s arguable the Clippers began the series as the aggressor and have largely out-played the Spurs.

While the Clippers appear to have been the better team for long stretches and probably should have won this series already, it’s the Spurs who have come together at the right times and stole two games in L.A. the Clippers probably should have won. Still, Los Angeles won two huge road games in this series and now that we’re in game seven, all bets are probably off.

You’re hear to gain some insight on which team to bet on, though, so let’s break down this matchup and come to the best decision possible:

San Antonio Spurs (6) @ Los Angeles Clippers (3) on TNT at 8:00 pm ET

The end has come. Tonight we find out if the defending champion Spurs are on their way down and if the Clippers can actually close out a tough series. This has easily been the best series in these young playoffs and an intense game seven should push that notion over the top. The question, of course, is who will win?

The odds actually favor Los Angeles, as the home team in a game seven wins nearly 80% of the time. However, when their backs are against the wall in a game seven, the Spurs simply never lose. This very thing happened to them last year in the first round, when the Dallas Mavericks forced a game seven. The difference? That game seven wasn’t on the road.

That could be the key in a matchup where Chris Paul and Blake Griffin have done as they pleased and the Spurs have oddly gotten very little help from their usually solid bench. The Clippers get nothing from a weak bench and that support could dwindle even further with Glen Davis (ankle) iffy for this one. That likely means more run for Blake Griffin, who will hopefully not be worn down when this game comes down to the final moments. Despite the poor bench play, the Clippers do have a couple guys in Jamal Crawford and Austin Rivers that are definitely capable of blowing up. If one of them can offer up a big shooting performance, that could do the trick, as we can bank on L.A.’s starters showing up in their biggest playoff game to date.

It’s never easy picking against the defending champs, but logic actually supports it tonight. The Spurs have claimed two of three road games in this series, but taking three of four is going to be awfully tough. Add that game seven percentage at home, how well the Clippers play at the Staples Center and just how tight this series has been so far, I find it hard to bet against the Clippers. That being said, this is about as close to being a toss-up as it gets, so if you don’t feel comfortable, just chase the Total tonight.

Pick: Clippers 107, Spurs 105

Joe Johnson and Lebron James

NBA Playoff Picks: Can Nets Force Game 7?

The Brooklyn Nets have come a long way since barely sneaking into the 2015 NBA playoffs with a sub .500 record. In fact, they were at one point two points away from pushing to a 3-2 lead over the Atlanta Hawks in their first round series. Instead, they rode Jarrett Jack for far too long and sunk in a sea of turnovers and missed shots.

Now the Nets head back home to the Barclays Center, hoping one more home game is enough to propel them to another big win and a huge game seven back in Atlanta. The question is, will the Hawks allow it to happen? Let’s take a closer look at every angle of tonight’s only NBA game and see if we can’t tack on another win to our 29-8 playoff record:

Atlanta Hawks (1) @ Brooklyn Nets (8) on ESPN at 8:00 pm ET

There are four massive keys to this game, and they are, in no particular order, Lionel Hollins, Jeff Teague, Brooklyn’s defense and the Barclays Center.

You could place Hollins as the main reason we see nothing but inconsistency out of the Nets. His decision to keep Jarrett Jack on the court for nearly the entire fourth quarter in game five probably tells us all we need to know. Jack played a big hand in getting Brooklyn back into the game, but then he started making bad decisions and went cold. Hollins acted too late and it cost the Nets the game. That’s just one example, but it will be telling how Hollins handles in-game management once again tonight.

Teague hurt his ankle last game and could be limited heading into this big game. I doubt he sits, but if he isn’t 100% or even hurts himself further, we could see a lot more of Dennis Schroder. Schroder can be a jolt offensively, but he’s not the defender Teague is. If the Hawks have to deal with a less than stellar or completely absent Teague, they could be in for some trouble on defense.

Brooklyn’s defense wasn’t great in a big game five and it’s been sporadic all year long. It tends to show up at it’s best when they’re at home, but whether or not that’s the case tonight will be pretty key. Then again, with how Al Horford and DeMarre Carroll have been shooting the ball, it may not matter. Still, the Nets (despite not having a great record) play extremely well on their home floor, and overall should be ready to play tonight.

The question, of course, is will it matter? I say no. Atlanta looked very focused at home in game five and we all know a playoff series doesn’t truly start until a team wins on the road. Atlanta can’t afford to give the Nets an out in game seven and getting that first road win is pretty key for their future success in these playoffs. I don’t expect the Nets to lie down, but the Hawks are the better team and in some degree we should feel that tonight.

Pick: Hawks 109, Nets 104

Jimmy Butler Bulls

2015 NBA Playoff Picks: Clippers, Bucks Eye Game Seven

Wednesday night’s NBA action went as expected. The Hawks took back control of their series with the Nets by buckling down a win at home and the Grizzlies finally ousted a Blazers team that looked like it had no business being in post-season play. We saw both games coming from a mile away (2-0 on the night, 28-7 through the playoffs) and head into Thursday night looking for another two-game sweep.

That may be easier said than done, as two very interesting series hit the hardwood tonight. Los Angeles blew a huge chance to go up 3-2 over the Spurs the other night, and now they’ll try to send the series back to L.A. for a game seven. Doing that in San Antonio against a championship-type team that knows closing tonight is the best possible option, well, it’s unlikely to be easy.

The Bulls have a similar situation on their hands, as they’ve found it hard to rid themselves of the pesky Bucks, who have a chance to force a game seven of their own in Milwaukee tonight. Milwaukee’s bid for a full seven-game series is far less likely than the Clippers on the surface, but they’ve at least won two in a row and had they not lost a crazy overtime battle in game three, this series could have a totally different look and feel to it.

Needless to say, our NBA picks come with a heavy grain of salt tonight, as both of these series have been very hard to predict the entire way. We’ve actually done a solid job picking the Clippers/Spurs series, though, so if we can nail one of these games we’ll be borderline thrilled. Regardless, let’s dissect the matchups for Thursday’s games:

Chicago Bulls (3) @ Milwaukee Bucks (6)

Milwaukee has performed admirably throughout this series. They lost game one by 12 and since then they’ve lost by no more than nine, with one of those losses coming in double overtime. If luck was on their side a bit, they could be the ones up 3-2 heading into this elimination game. That’s not the case, though, and they’ll have to fight off a Bulls team that has found it difficult to put them down for good in two straight games.

While the Bulls have had a difficult time finishing off the Bucks, history and logic remains on their side. No team has ever overcome a 3-0 hole in the NBA playoffs, while Milwaukee stealing a third game in a row just doesn’t make much sense. Chicago’s main issue has been allowing the Bucks to keep them at their level and beating them at their own game. The Bucks have run a very basic offense and have relied on solid team defense. Michael Carter-Williams has played smart basketball in spurts, opting to take the ball to the hole, rather than settle on the perimeter with a shaky jumper.

The big question tonight is whether or not the Bulls have the resolve to turn the tide. Are they smart enough to stay off of MCW to force him to try to bury them with their jumper. Considering they’re led by a defensive-minded coach, that’s probably the case. Do they have the offensive firepower to score more than 90 points for the first time in their last three games? They averaged 100 points per game on the year, so that seems pretty doable. Can they stifle a Milwaukee offense that has been surgical when they needed to be? Milwaukee averaged under 98 points per game on the year, so that is pretty doable, too.

Chicago actually has to do this, though. All of it. Derrick Rose also needs to not go 0-7 from long range (or just start attacking more) and the Bulls need to tighten back up in the paint. The Bucks are a fun story and as a Wisconsin native, it’s really hard not to pull for them (I personally will be). But the Bulls are the better team, from top to bottom. Milwaukee could absolutely make history by forcing a game seven and then stealing that final game of the series. They’re a bad matchup for the Bulls and that has been made abundantly clear. Chicago has to rise up and prove they’re the better team by making sure it doesn’t come to that. They are the better team, but tonight I think they finally actually look like it, too.

Pick: Bulls 104, Bucks 94

Los Angeles Clippers (3) @ San Antonio Spurs (6)

My thought going into game five of this series was that whoever won, would take the series. That made sense given the fact that over 80% of teams that win game five in a tied series do tend to do exactly that. It was more about the situation for me, though, as a Clippers win would have given them a game to kill in game six and then they could come back home and put all of their energy in knocking off the Spurs on their home floor – where they easily play their best ball. They could let the Spurs scratch and claw their way into a game seven and then take them out in the bigger game. Instead, now they have to try to do that. They still have a game seven game to look forward to if they can get it done, but are we to believe the defending champs are going to let a series slip through their fingers on their home floor?

It’s highly doubtful the Spurs buckle here and blow this series. Losing tonight could qualify as such, as the Clippers are a potent offensive team at home and the Spurs tend to not be so mighty on the road. On the flip side, San Antonio lost just eight times at home during the regular season and barely lost the one home game to the Clippers in this series. They crushed the Clips in the other. The Spurs are also the only team of the two to win back to back games in this series. The Clippers would have to suddenly find a way to do that to claim the series.

History supports another collapse for the Clippers. Chris Paul and co. blew game two and could have easily been up 2-0. They did it again in game five, and again at home. What happens when everything is on the line and they can’t handle the pressure again on the road? I’m sure the Clips will come out ready to fight and they could easily win this, but I think the stronger odds are with the Clips coming up short, just like they’ve done time and time again. I’d love to be wrong about this to see an awesome game seven, but if you’re betting on this game, the smart money rests with the Spurs.

Pick: Spurs 108, Clippers 105

Deron Williams

NBA Playoff Picks For Wednesday, 4/29

The end came for the Dallas Mavericks on Tuesday night, while the Clippers couldn’t finish at home against the Spurs. We’re one step closer to all of the teams being in the second round, as Memphis can finish off the Blazers in five games at home tonight and either the Nets or Hawks can inch closer to winning their first round series.

Just like that Clippers/Spurs battle from last night, we may be in for a pretty heated showdown between Brooklyn and Atlanta. On the flip side, we can probably expect less resistance from the depleted Blazers. Tonight’s NBA picks shouldn’t be rocket science, just last Tuesday night’s weren’t (we went 2-0). Roll with us and our stout 26-7 playoff picks record as we aim for another 2-0 run:

Brooklyn Nets (8) @ Atlanta Hawks (1)

Atlanta was naturally the heavy favorite in their opening round series, as they’re the top seed in the East and hosted a Nets team that won less than 42 games during the regular season. This series started as it should have with ATL going up 2-0, but the Nets have battled back to tie it up, 2-2. That’s bad news for the Hawks, who could see all of their momentum completely slip away with a loss tonight. Brooklyn is obviously going to be taken more serious than ever in this one, but it’s hard to imagine the Hawks dropping a third straight game. Not only are they the better team, but they’re also at home, where they rarely lose. The Hawks haven’t looked quite like themselves throughout this series, but logic suggests they’ll figure out what ails them in game five.

Pick: Hawks 106, Nets 102

Portland Trail Blazers (5) @ Memphis Grizzlies (4)

This game isn’t likely to be overly close or exciting, as Portland hasn’t had much success in Memphis in this series and appears to be on their last leg in a number of ways. The Grizz should still be without star point guard Mike Conley and that could make that come off a little vulnerable, but they’ve been the better team by far and have the opportunity to close out this series at home. Portland got it’s pride win to prevent a sweep in game four, but their playoff run sadly ends here tonight.

Pick: Grizz 105, Blazers 96

Chris Paul and Stephen Curry

NBA Playoff Picks For Tuesday Night

Monday night offered up a chance for two teams to close out their first round series and another to take full control of theirs. All three teams failed to capitalize on their opportunity. The Hawks fell for the second straight game in Brooklyn, the Bulls couldn’t close out their series with the Bucks and the Grizzlies failed to sweep the Blazers. Portland beating Memphis was the only game we got right (1-2 on the night, 24-7 for the playoffs), and clearly we all need to reassess how we look at the Hawks and Bulls right about now.

We get some time to reflect, as there are just two NBA games on the docket tonight. Dallas tries to keep their series alive with the Rockets, while the Clippers and Spurs (2-2) look to break their series tie. Let’s break down both matchups and see who you should be betting on tonight:

Dallas Mavericks (7) @ Houston Rockets (2)

Dallas has looked fantastic the past two games, and no Rajon Rondo could have something to do with it. So could have playing at home, where the Mavs put up a ton of points and staved off elimination with a nice game four win. The Mavs stole the last game as a matter of pride, but the end is inevitable in this series. It only makes sense that Dallas would go down shooting in Houston when they take the court in game five. It’s unfortunate, too, since the Mavs had game two and could be playing to go up 3-2 in this series tonight. Instead, we’re probably in for an explosive offensive showdown that ends with the better team pulling away and claiming the series, 4-1.

Pick: Rockets 106, Mavs 103

San Antonio Spurs (6) @ Los Angeles Clippers (3)

The Clippers are in a dangerous spot, as a loss tonight would send the series back to San Antonio with the Spurs in total control. L.A. has been the aggressor and overall the better team in three of four games, but only two of those games have been wins. This is a very tough game five to call, as the Spurs have only shown up on defense at an elite level in one game, and it was in San Antonio. The Clips have otherwise been a real handful on offense and they’re generally very tough on their home court. That being said, L.A. didn’t show up in game three and coughed up a game two they should have had. Instead of having a commanding 3-1 series lead, they’re heading into the biggest game of these young playoffs not knowing for sure which version of themselves will show up.

As a fan I’m pulling for the Clippers to land the upset blow and win this in seven games, but as a realist I can’t see Kawhi Leonard and Tim Duncan going down 3-2. Los Angeles also routinely shoots themselves in the foot late in games, whether it be via fouls or turnovers. I’m sure we’re in for a barn burner and I wouldn’t be the least bit shocked if the Clippers dominated for 99% of this contest. It’s the last few minutes that worry me.

Pick: Spurs 108, Clippers 104

Brook Lopez

NBA Playoff Picks For Monday, 4/27

Sunday night was the first unkind night of the 2015 NBA playoffs, as we went just 1-2 with our daily NBA picks. We published our daily column too late to include our Cavs over the Celtics pick, and could have been a respectable 2-2 on the day. The Rockets and Clippers both ruined it for us, as Houston couldn’t pull off the sweep in Dallas and the Clippers rebounded from a horrendous game three performance to steal back the momentum from the Spurs. That drops us to 23-5, but we can make up for it with three more games hitting the schedule tonight.

Two more series can come to a close as we get the week started, as the Bulls can take out the Bucks in Chicago in game five and the Grizzlies can sweep the Blazers in Portland. Both may be easier said than done, while it will also be interesting to see if the Nets can tie up their series with the East’s top-seeded Hawks. Overall, tonight might be one of the toughest slates to call in these young playoffs. Let’s get to it:

Atlanta Hawks (1) @ Brooklyn Nets (8)

Brooklyn stole game three once this series shifted to the Barclays Center. Their ability to play their best ball on their home floor absolutely gives them a fighter’s chance in this series, but in order to be a real threat they’ll have to capitalize tonight with a win. Deron Williams is banged up and really has been terrible through the first three games. Brook Lopez will be the main force on offense once again, but if Al Horford can do a better job on him in game four the Nets could be in trouble on offense. Overall, Atlanta is the better team and they have to know they can’t afford to let this series get tied up. Look for them to get closer to the second round by distancing themselves with a win tonight.

Pick: Hawks 104, Nets 102

Milwaukee Bucks (6) @ Chicago Bulls (3)

The Bucks showed a lot of heart over the past two games, but they only have one win to show for it. Truth be told, if Derrick Rose doesn’t fall asleep on two plays in a row, this series might be over. Things shift back to Chicago tonight, where the Bulls are going to want to put things to bed. Look for Derrick Rose to attack early and Chicago’s defense to do a better job stifling Milwaukee’s offense.

Pick: Bulls 103, Bucks 96

Memphis Grizzlies (4) @ Portland Trail Blazers (5)

Mike Conley is out with a facial injury and he could miss the rest of this series if Portland can wake up tonight. The Blazers had their best chance to steal a win in game three, and it had everything to do with their bench finally waking up. LaMarcus Aldridge could be looking at tonight as his last game in Rip City, so he’ll be looking to give the fans something special, win or lose. Memphis isn’t quite is strong defensively with Conley out, so Damian Lillard could also have his best game of the series. That’s even more likely considering he looked a lot better in game three. Memphis could easily close this series out tonight, but the Blazers have generally been good at home and this one could be emotional for Ridge.

Pick: Blazers 104, Grizz 101