All posts by Kevin

Chicago Bears Become Major NFL Betting Target After Brian Hoyer Injury

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The Chicago Bears went into Thursday night’s matchup with the Green Bay Packers with bleak prospects at 1-5.

They exited the night in even worse shape.

Brian Hoyer Hurts Arm

Losing 26-10 to a rival to drop to 1-6 probably hurt enough, but the Bears were also dropped down to their third string quarterback, with backup and current starter Brian Hoyer leaving the game with a broken arm:

The silver lining? The injury was to Hoyer’s non-throwing arm and previous starter Jay Cutler (thumb) could potentially be back in a matter of weeks.

Matt Barkley Blows Chance

The bad news? Matt Barkley entered in a tight game and bombed horribly, completing just 6 of 15 passes for 81 yards and two interceptions. Barkley grabbed hold of a game where the Bears were only down 6-3, and proceeded to implode from there.

This loss was far from being solely on a quarterback who had received few practice reps and probably didn’t think for a second he’d be playing, but the performance from the former USC standout still wasn’t good.

Week 8 Prospects

The worse news? The Bears will undoubtedly be confiding in Barkley again in week eight, when they take on the Minnesota Vikings.

Yikes. Truly, if Barkley couldn’t even look respectable against the Packers, it’s going to be awfully tough to imagine him doing anything positive against a Vikings defense that has looked like the league’s best unit through their first five games.

There isn’t much of a silver lining here, but if Barkley can lean on the talent that once made him a star at USC and put him in the first round discussion the year he was drafted, perhaps he can do enough to keep the Bears in the game. Making more throws like this one from Thursday night couldn’t hurt:

Realistically, Barkley is in over his head and the Bears are in big trouble. As bad as they wanted Jay Cutler to stay gone, they’re going to hope he can quickly return from a sprained thumb that has kept him out since the second half of a week two loss. Chicago hasn’t exactly lit the world on fire without him under center (one win), so turning back to Cutler at this point does no real damage.

Cutler Needs to Return

That brings us to the bigger issue. We can’t be talking about how the Bears can hope to survive or turn things around with Barkley under center. He’s not really even an option. Instead, Cutler needs to suck it up, brave the pain of a sprained thumb and put this team on his back:

Bears head coach John Fox admitted recently that Cutler is getting closer, so we can’t rule out a Cutler return in week eight just yet:

While Cutler’s status remains up in the air yet again, it’s highly possible his “injury” gave the Bears a good excuse to stick with a hot Brian Hoyer. With Hoyer no longer an option and Barkley staring them in the face, however, the Bears are looking at a truly disastrous season if they don’t give the reigns back to Cutler.

There is no denying the tough spot Chicago is in. They’re 1-6 and get a brutal matchup with the hated Vikings. They’re sure to be 1-7 and if we weren’t sure of it by now, their chances at a playoff run are all but over. That being said, there is something to remaining competitive and building positive momentum toward 2017. Cutler probably won’t be part of that, should this take a positive turn going into next season, but neither will Barkley.

Chicago and Cutler both need to suck it up and ride this out, regardless of how it unfolds.

Cutler’s potential return aside, the Bears aren’t beating the Vikings and this is a team in general that appears very safe to bet against on a weekly basis.

2017 NBA Odds: Predicting Which Teams Will Win Every Division

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The 2016-17 NBA season seems fairly predictable at first glance. If you’re looking down one scope, that’s probably true. In the end, we’re almost certainly headed for a third straight NBA Finals between the Cleveland Cavaliers and Golden State Warriors.

Tim Duncan’s retirement hurt the Spurs, Kevin Durant going to Golden State hurt the Thunder and there just isn’t a viable contender that could dethrone the Cavs out of the Eastern Conference. If your long game when it comes to NBA betting is coming up with a sleeper NBA Finals winner – or just anyone not named the Cavs or Dubs – you’re probably wasting your time.

There are other ways to make good on some NBA bets, however. Betting daily on individual NBA games and props is one route, but the other could be correctly predicting the division winners in the divisions not dominated by the Cavaliers and Warriors.

Truth be told, we can safely write off anyone else from winning the Central Division or Pacific Division in 2017. Going with the Bucks at +5000 or the Suns at +20000 sure seems like fun, but those aren’t just not happening – they won’t be close.

Instead, let’s focus on the following divisions and see if some intriguing bets could pay off:

Atlantic Division

  • Celtics -105
  • Raptors +105
  • Knicks +1000
  • 76ers +10000
  • Nets +10000

Toronto won this division the past three years straight, yet for some reason Boston is favored at Bovada and other sports betting websites. Right there you’re getting a mild NBA betting edge, so we could stop short at throwing down a big bet on the Raptors winning the division again.

Boston did get better by adding Al Horford, but Toronto is still the best team in this division. In fact, if you’re going to bank on someone improving, you might as well take the odds the Knicks get and see if the additions of Derrick Rose, Courtney Lee and Joakim Noah can help them jump back into the playoffs.

Toronto is probably winning this division, but if you’re not betting on them, shoot high with the Knicks.

Northwest Division

  • Thunder +250
  • Blazers +260
  • Jazz +260
  • Timberwolves +333
  • Nuggets +3000

This division could actually be wide open this year. OKC ran away with it last season, but Kevin Durant and Serge Ibaka are gone. That hits them on both ends of the court, and while we wouldn’t exactly bet against Russell Westbrook, there is a very compelling argument that this team could regress a bit.

That could make for just enough regression to make the Jazz or Blazers interesting bets in this division. Utah is looking like a roll of the dice given their health, as Gordon Hayward (finger), Derrick Favors (knee), Alec Burks and even Rodney Hood have already started the year off all banged up. Portland, then, may be the sexier play, especially after getting a little deeper by adding glue guys like Evan Turner and Festus Ezeli.

We can’t completely ignore Denver or Minnesota, either, as they round out what is quickly looking like an extremely deep and possibly very competitive division. Karl-Anthony Towns could push the Wolves to new heights, while Denver has a ton of offensive talent that is really exciting.

This is undeniably a fun division, but much like a year ago, it’s OKC’s to lose. It’s a legit tie between Utah and Portland as the second best team here, and for now we’d give the edge to the Blazers. But if we’re betting here, the Thunder is the only team that makes good sense with these odds.

Southeast Division

  • Hawks +180
  • Wizards +300
  • Heat +350
  • Hornets +350
  • Magic +1600

Here is a division where last year’s winner (Miami) is absolutely due for regression. Miami has a lot of nice young talent and good coaching, but Chris Bosh (blood clots) and Dwyane Wade (free agency) aren’t here anymore. There are even whispers that the Heat could trade Goran Dragic. As if this thing isn’t blown to bits already. Miami is in serious danger of slipping out of the playoff picture entirely, so repeating as the Southeast Division champs just seems like a reach.

Their odds rank third here, though, so perhaps Bovada makes that regression obvious. The same could be the case for the Hawks and Hornets, though, both of which have solid odds to make a run at the division crown. Atlanta added Dwight Howard, but lost Jeff Teague and Al Horford and may not get Kyle Korver back to his 2014-15 form ever again. Unless Dwight is magically the reliable beast he was five years ago, the Hawks are destined to slip a bit.

The same goes for the Hornets, who lost offensive spark Jeremy Lin and big man Al Jefferson. They still have talent and some depth, but they’re just not the same and they’re not feared down low in the least.

This has us really looking at the Wizards rising up and taking over the division with new coach Scott Brooks leading the way. Kelly Oubre Jr. and Otto Porter are developing nicely, Markieff Morris is preparing for his first full season with the Wiz and Brad Beal is healthy. If the Wiz are going to make noise, this is the year.

Orlando actually deserves a big shout out here, both because their +1600 odds could be fun as heck and because they made major efforts to get better. Adding proven coach Frank Vogel was massive, while they also worked hard to improve defensively by bringing in Bismack Biyombo and Serge Ibaka. They lost Victor Oladipo, but they still have Evan Fournier and Nikola Vucevic to pace the offense, as well as a budding versatile stud in Aaron Gordon. If Vogel can find the right mix, this could be a team to monitor.

Honestly, the Wizards look ready to make a big move, so they’re the team we’d eye here. If you’re feeling saucy, however, the Magic could finally be primed for a playoff return and Vogel just might have the thinking bigger. Like, division title, big.

Southwest Division

  • Spurs -750
  • Grizzlies +1200
  • Rockets +1200
  • Pelicans +2500
  • Mavericks +4000

Last, but not least, is the Southwest Division, where Bovada gives zero chance to anyone not from San Antonio. I get that, seeing as the Spurs won a franchise record 67 games last year. They also hypothetically offset the loss of Tim Duncan by bringing in Pau Gasol and honestly, they still don’t have many flaws.

The Spurs defend, they share the ball and they win at home. They also have Kawhi Leonard and LaMarcus Aldridge and can turn to a pretty strong bench in a pinch.

All that being said, they’ve also never really been a title threat without Duncan. There is a severe culture, leadership, etc that exits with him and we can’t ignore that, nor the steady regression of Tony Parker.

If the Spurs can’t get it done (even though they will), this could actually be fairly wide open. New Orleans figures to at least be healthier than last year, Houston’s high octane offense could have them operating as the fastest team in the league, Memphis is healthy again and added Chandler Parsons and the Mavs brought in Harrison Barnes, Seth Curry and Andrew Bogut.

I’m not sure any of this gets any of these teams better than the Spurs, but if there is a sleeper team to bet on here, it’s Houston. Mike D’Antoni made a living during the regular season with an offensive system that puts up points and wins games. The Rockets were also pretty darn good when it was the James Harden show two years ago – a season in which they won this division (gasp!).

James Harden at the point is the right move for what this team is trying to do, and hypothetically at least, a starting five consisting of Eric Gordon, Trevor Ariza, Ryan Anderson and some combination of Nene Hilario and Clint Capela is quite deadly.

The issue with the Rockets is going to be defense across the board, but that may not stop them from getting 60 wins by smoking most teams on a nightly basis.

Ultimately, the Spurs probably win the division, but they’re odds are atrocious for betting purposes. Instead, roll with Houston or aim super high with the Mavs.

Can Knile Davis Trade Spark Dormant Packers Offense?

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The Green Bay Packers just did something they normally haven’t done during the Ted Thompson era: they looked outside their own walls for help. More specifically, the Packers went to the trade market to better themselves, officially agreeing to a deal with the Kansas City Chiefs on Tuesday to add backup running back, Knile Davis.

Hit by a rash of injuries in their offensive backfield, Green Bay was forced to use a wide receiver at the running back position in week six and the end result was a lopsided home loss to the Dallas Cowboys. With starting running back Eddie Lacy (ankle) ailing and backup rusher James Starks (knee) slated to miss up to a month of action, Green Bay had two options: to continue as they were, or seek some outside help.

Necessary Trade

Thompson and co. wisely opted to swing a trade for Davis, who was wasting away in Kansas City.

The harsh reality is that Green Bay has been in an arguable offensive funk all season, and at 3-2 it may be time to start wondering why they’re struggling. Some point to the offensive line, a lack of speed at wide receiver or Aaron Rodgers’ regression, but not having a healthy stable of running backs is understandably part of the problem.

Lacy isn’t 100%, but even beyond Green Bay’s top rusher, there were major struggles. Starks had been averaging a meager 1.8 yards per carry ahead of his knee injury, and the Packers’ running back depth chart was so bad that the team rolled into week six with Ty Montgomery and Randall Cobb (two wide receivers) seeing added time as running backs.

That simply isn’t a way to conduct business in the NFL, naturally facilitating a much-needed trade for Knile Davis.

Boost in the Backfield?

The trade for Knile Davis seems a bit underwhelming at first glance. Of Kansas City’s available running back talent, any of Jamaal Charles, Spencer Ware or Charcandrick West would have been much more appealing. All three are highly versatile weapons with well-rounded skill-sets and are all also arguably more explosive than Davis.

That isn’t to say Knile Davis can’t be a strong addition to the Packers, however. In fact, he actually looked quite good in spurts for the Chiefs just a couple of years ago:

At the very worst, he’s added depth, which the team sorely needed with Starks on the shelf for the next four weeks, at a minimum. Davis has experience in short yardage situations, on kick returns and while he’s had some issues with ball control and consistency, he absolutely brings size, speed and experience to the table.

There was even a time where the Chiefs thought Davis could be their top backup behind Charles, when he temporarily was on a roll during a 2014 season that saw him pile on over 600 total yards and seven touchdowns.

It’s fair to wonder if Davis is as washed up as he’s appeared to be in Kansas City, but the 25-year old could still have some untapped upside. Regardless, there is little doubt a change of scenery and an ehanced role may offer him the chance to turn his career around.

Empty Returns

While Knile Davis at one time displayed appealing talent, he’s not a guy that is going to make people miss, he showed steep regression as a runner with the Chiefs over the last two years and he’s had a history of fumbling woes.

On paper, this is a less that inspiring trade and it’s fair to wonder if the Packers could have made a stronger play. It’s possible they didn’t want to step on the toes of Lacy or Starks and merely picked up some depth in Davis, but they arguably should have taken the situation a lot more seriously and attempted to land a true difference-maker.

The reality is Green Bay lacks speed and versatility all over their offense and probably in their backfield, more than anywhere else. Eddie Lacy can still be a productive starter, but he’s not healthy and it’s arguable that an effective change of pace back would do Green Bay’s offense wonders.

Davis probably isn’t going to provide that.

Needless to say, Green Bay’s offense is slowly sinking and going into a short-week showdown with the Chicago Bears on Thursday Night Football, they have massive question marks in their running game. Adding Knile Davis doesn’t change that.

The Packers started the 2016 NFL season with the second best Super Bowl odds. They’ve since slid over at Bovada (5th best odds, +1200). Entering week seven in what figures to be a must-win home game against a bad Bears team, Green Bay could be losing steam as a popular Super Bowl pick if they can’t find a way to get their offense back into high gear.

NBA Finals Odds: Are Bulls Title Contender After Trading For Michael Carter-Williams?

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The Chicago Bulls and Milwaukee Bucks agreed to terms on a trade containing Michael Carter-Williams and Tony Snell on Monday. The two Eastern Conference rivals had been discussing the player swap over the weekend and finalized the trade early on Monday, with Michael Carter-Williams heading to Chicago and Tony Snell landing in Milwaukee.

Bucks Seek Offense

It was a crucial move (albeit an underwhelming one) for the Bucks, who lost a ton of offensive and outside shooting with a severe hamstring injury to starting shooting guard, Khris Middleton. With Middleton on the shelf for months (and possibly the entire season), Milwaukee badly needed some help on the wing. It’s certainly debatable if Snell provides that, as he was an inefficient performer during his time in Chicago.

Snell was never able to overtake a big role with the Bulls, where he averaged just over five points per game during the 2015-16 season, a year in which he shot just 37% from the field. While recent efficiency isn’t coming into Milwaukee with the Snell trade, the Bucks to land a versatile player who does have the ability to hit the outside shot. Even better, Snell can defend at a high level and brings length and versatility to a Bucks team that already has both in spades.

The idea for Milwaukee will be for Snell to take over a sizable role until Middleton can return. Once back, Middleton would star again at the two spot and Snell would slide back into a more ideal bench role.

Chicago Loses Shooting

As for Chicago, this is an odd trade. They give up a versatile wing player who can provide bench scoring and is a very useful defender, and in return get an arguable bust who has always been miscast as a star poing guard and really is more of a weak small forward who has a broken jumper.

MCW definitely has potential still and the Bulls are right to label him a versatile talent, but he adds zero shooting to a team already starving for it. Jimmy Butler remains the only starter in Chicago that can consistently hit jumpers, while Dwyane Wade is a distant second. Snell wasn’t being counted on for a major role, but he’s one less shooter the Bulls can use off the bench.

Instead they’ll turn to Michael Carter-Williams, who offers nothing from long range and has never been an efficient offensive player. He isn’t even a plus defender, as he’s merely gotten by for stretches due to his size, length and athleticism. MCW does provide the Bulls with a backup point guard upgrade over Jerian Grant and Spencer Dinwiddie, but it could be a rough transition from starting unit to the main bench when both of their top point guards struggle to hit wide open jump shots.

NBA Title Odds Don’t Change

Overall, this trade does very little for either team. Losing Snell doesn’t cripple the Bulls, and gaining Michael Carter-Williams doesn’t make them any better on paper. Milwaukee seems to have given away a former tantalizing prospect for almost nothing, too, while Snell offers the mildest of potential in a spot they need a ton of help in.

Bovada is giving the Bulls respectable +4000 odds to chase a title this year, and that has everything to do with big names like Rajon Rondo, Dwyane Wade and Jimmy Butler.

They’re a hallow team with big names and no shooting, however. It will be an accomplishment for them to simply make the playoffs and compete once in.

Milwaukee losing Middleton is massive for a team that already struggled to put the ball in the hole. Snell doesn’t fix that, nor does he help their weak +10000 NBA Finals odds. Milwaukee certainly has talent and could be a fun team to watch, but they’re not going to be a playoff contender unless/until Middleton gets back in the starting lineup.

NBA Hot Debate: Why Blake Griffin is Better Than Carmelo Anthony

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A hot NBA debate was sparked on Thursday, when First Take analysts Stephen A. Smith and Max Kellerman were discussing what players they would prefer if they were going into the NBA playoffs. When Kellerman voiced that he’d prefer Los Angeles Clippers big man Blake Griffin over New York Knicks superstar forward Carmelo Anthony, Smith absolutely went bananas:

The big question here is whether or not Smith was right to lose it so quickly. The even bigger question is if Kellerman might actually be right. This, like most NBA debates, can take on several forms. It can go through paradigms you never imagined and on our way to the finish line, we might lose the reason that ever set us forth on this journey.

To avoid that, we’ll make it simple: Stephen A. Smith always loses it. About anything and everything. Ever.

So, it’s not shocking he loses his mind and doesn’t know how to respond when a player he loves – Melo – is slammed a bit by Kellerman. Is it called for? Probably not, but it’s a fairly close NBA debate and Smith doesn’t get paid to be controlled and predictable on television. He gets paid to be a borderline lunatic who screams and blabbers whatever his point is.

Make of that what you will, but we’d say he overreacted and instead of actually providing any kind of argument against Kellerman’s choice, he simply didn’t provide much of anything and looked disgusted. To each their own.

Blake Griffin vs. Carmelo Anthony

But what about the argument on hand? If you’re an NBA team and you need one superstar to ride into the playoffs with and your two choices are Melo or Blake Griffin, who is the pick?

We’d have to agree it has to be Griffin. That probably rings true now and it has to ring true always. Unlike Melo, Griffin has constantly evolved his game, he elevates his teammates, he’s gotten better on a yearly basis and he’s been successful in a tougher conference.

In Melo’s early years with the Denver Nuggets, he could never muster a single playoff series win. He was constantly one and done and ultimately forced his way out of Colorado. Once in New York, nothing really changed, as the Knicks were bounced in the first round during Melo’s first two years in town. In year three, Melo helped the Knicks get to round two, but again got bounced, never to return to the playoffs again.

Carmelo Anthony isn’t the athlete or versatile talent Blake Griffin has been and continues to be. He’s a scorer, plain and simple.

Melo’s scoring often was looked at as selfish during his career and while you could argue he often didn’t have the help he needed to succeed at a high level, there is something to be said for how you help the rest of your team perform. Anthony is a guy who constantly has had the ball in his hands throughout his career. Even in his rookie season he launched nearly 18 shots per game, and ever since then, he’s topped 20 shot attempts per game five different times, while never dropping below 16 attempts per game (that even only happened once).

The simple fact is, Melo shot the ball a ton and yes, he scored the ball a ton. However, despite providing major value as a pure scorer (20+ points per game every single year in the league) he was never a major factor as a playmaker (under 3 assists per game five different years) and actually topped four assists per game for the first time ever just last year.

The numbers don’t lie. Melo didn’t trust his teammates enough to get them more involved for the majority of his career, and instead took more shots. That led to points and it still undoubtedly helped his teams win when they did, but it also didn’t exactly help his teams improve.

Blake Griffin, on the other hand, has posted 3+ dimes per game every year he’s been in the league and his play-making ability has only improved as time has gone on. With his skill-set improving and the Clippers giving him more responsibility, he’s been able to average 5.3 and 4.9 assists per game in each of the last two seasons.

Melo still has five years on Griffin, yet the Clippers star forward has already proven to be the more versatile talent, better play-maker and really has provided a similar impact in scoring (21+ points per game in 5 of 6 NBA seasons).

Griffin has found a way to enjoy about as much success in the NBA playoffs as Melo during a much shorter career, as well. Despite being drafted by a horrendous franchise, Griffin helped build what is known as Lob City and has helped the Clippers get to the playoffs each year, except for his official rookie season in 2010. In those seasons, Griffin and the Clippers reached the second round of the NBA playoffs three years in a row and last year bowed out in round one due to a slew of injuries.

Melo might be the bigger name that has been around longer. Perhaps more was initially expected of him. You could say he might be the better natural shooter and better pure scorer. I would agree with all of those things. But assuming he’s the better overall player is dangerous and it absolutely has been proven that Griffin has been more crucial to his team’s success.

If you take Melo away, what are his teams missing out on? Not getting to the playoffs? Still getting to the playoffs and losing right away?

Oh, wait, we already know the answer to Melo’s true impact. Once traded out of Denver, the Nuggets kept things together long enough to reach the playoffs in four straight seasons. Just like when Melo was there, they got bounced in round one every single time.

The reality is Melo’s presence didn’t make much of a difference in the end and his main skill-set can be divided up throughout a team.

This isn’t to say Melo is’t good (or even great). It’s not to say he’s not an elite scorer (he most certainly is) or that he hasn’t been somewhat successful.

But Blake Griffin is the better overall player, he’s had more success and quite honestly, he’s just scratching the surface of what he actually is capable of. That’s hard for Melo defenders to swallow, but it’s the truth.

MLB Playoff Picks: Giants and Dodgers Look to Stave Off Elimination

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The wild 2016 MLB playoffs continue on Tuesday night, with two games on the schedule. The Washington Nationals prepare for their second go around in Los Angeles, after rocking the Dodgers en route to a 2-1 series lead. The San Francisco Giants, meanwhile, used some late heroics to prevent a 3-0 sweep by the hands of the Chicago Cubs.

Both the Nats and Cubs can seal the deal tonight with a win, giving us a potentially epic showdown between the two teams. The Giants and Dodgers will look to represent the NL West in the best way possible, however, and if they can nab wins we’ll get two intense 2-2 series with one rubber match to come.

Let’s take a look at tonight’s MLB playoff matchups and see which way you should lean when it comes to MLB betting:

Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers

Washington poured it on thick last night, mowing down the Dodgers with an emphatic 8-3 win. That was concerning because they went nuts at Dodger Stadium, but also because they did so against one of the Dodger’s best pitchers. It could be much the same on Tuesday night, when L.A. will either start Clayton Kershaw on short rest or ask rookie Julio Urias to keep the team’s season alive in a high pressure situation.

This would not be an awful spot for Urias, as he showed good stuff during his first MLB season and finished the year 3-0 at home. He didn’t give up a single homer at Dodger Stadium in 2016, while posting a respectable 3.05 ERA and giving up just 13 runs in nine total appearances. His efforts against this Nationals squad were mixed, of course, as he didn’t win or lose in two starts, lasting nine innings with three runs allowed. The Dodgers as a whole have an edge here, too, as they were one of the best teams in the league at home (53 wins).

We’re still not sure what to expect on the other side, as veteran arm Joe Ross could get the start, or some speculate the Nats could turn to rookie, Reynaldo Lopez. Either arm could be problematic, as Ross looked strong in his last appearance and fared well against the Dodgers in one meeting this season. Lopez is a little more volatile, as he’s just 2-2 on the road this year and gave up 10 hits in a no decision against the Dodgers earlier in 2016.

On paper, for the second night in a row, the mild bump goes to the Dodgers. They’re at home, they can force a  massive game five and they’d likely have ace Clayton Kershaw to decide their fate for them. Urias doesn’t need to be elite or go deep here, either. He just needs to get by, while getting a little help from a Dodgers offense that has yet to really come to life in these playoffs.

Due to the lack of knowledge with the pitchers in this one, the betting odds aren’t known just yet. That probably makes this a pick’em, and with weak odds all around, we’ll side with the home team to keep this series alive.

Pick: Dodgers 5, Nats 4

Chicago Cubs @ San Francisco Giants

  • Cubs to Win -128
  • Giants to Win +118

The second game of the night could be a little more intense, especially if last night’s crazy extra-inning win by the Giants is any indication.

There’s little denying the Cubs are the superior team, but the Giants have twice now shown up big with their season on the line. Can they keep the hope alive at home tonight long enough to make it to a decisive game five?

Maybe. The good news is they’re not facing Arrieta or Lester here, as instead they get a beatable John Lackey. Lackey certainly is not a pushover (11-8 on the year, 3.35 ERA) but he tends to struggle a bit more on the road (just 4-4). He did work the Giants in his lone meeting with them in 2016, but a road game with the Giants playing for their season is not going to be an envious position for him. San Francisco also doesn’t strikeout a lot, so if they can get some balls in play early, Lackey could tire out and set this one up for another crazy finish.

Of course, that will likely require Matt Moore to keep it together first. That’s a tall order given Chicago’s stacked offense, but it’s worth noting Moore has been strong at home (4-2) and has been amazing in his last two trips to the mound (2-0 with 17 total Ks). If Moore is that same top shelf pitcher we’ve seen lately, he should be able to keep the Giants in this and allow for more heroics late.

Chicago enters as the favorite on the road, but I’m not willing to give up on the Giants just yet. They seem to be living off of miracles right now and they still have everything a title contender needs. If Moore can hold serve and their offense chips in enough late, they can force a game five.

Pick: Giants 3, Cubs 2

MLB Playoff Betting Preview For Monday Night

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The MLB playoffs pick back up on Monday, with the Washington Nationals and Los Angeles Dodgers getting things going at 4:00 pm and two more games scheduled to follow. It’s been a weird MLB playoff run to this point, as we had insane wild card games, some games get PPD and even saw the Toronto Blue Jays sweep the Texas Rangers.

Texas is waiting in the next round and we could all be there before you know it, as the Cleveland Indians and Chicago Cubs both lead their series, 2-0. The Boston Red Sox and San Francisco Giants will both look to stave off the brooms tonight, while the Nats and Dodgers (tied, 1-1) look to gain an edge in the only 2016 MLB playoff series to be truly contested.

Let’s break down all three of tonight’s MLB playoff games and see where your bets should lie:

Nationals (+128) @ Dodgers (-138)

The Nats head to L.A. looking to take a 2-1 series lead tonight. Gio Gonzalez (11-11, 4.57 ERA) destroyed the Dodgers (6 Ks, 1 earned run) the only time he faced them earlier this year, and he’ll toe the rubber for a Nationals team that will look to get their offense cooking on the road.

That could be easier said than done, as the Dodgers push reliable pitcher Kenta Maeda onto the mound, where he’s gone a solid 7-5 at home on the year. Maeda hasn’t been able to notch a win in either of his last two starts, but perfect in his last four home starts.

Both teams have exchanged solid offense in a split series, but with the series shifting into L.A., it looks like the Dodgers are the friendly favorite. This game (nor any of tonight’s MLB playoff games) offer much wiggle room for MLB betting, but Los Angeles is a solid pick after going a dominant 53-28 at home in 2016.

The big kicker here could be Gonzalez, who is certainly a gifted arm, but also a highly volatile one. Gio specifically had some issues on the road in 2016, going just 4-6 while sporting a worse ERA (4.69) than at home. With both offenses capable of putting up runs, Maeda being successful at home and Gio having some struggles on the road, we’ll take the Dodgers to take the lead and march into a huge game four at home.

Pick: Dodgers 6, Nationals 3

Indians (+139) @ Red Sox (-154)

Boston looked like a legit World Series contender for much of 2016, but that hasn’t really been the case through two games against the Indians. They lost a back and forth game one they probably shouldn’t have, and then couldn’t figure out Corey Kluber. Tonight they should be able to get the sticks going again Josh Tomlin, but there has to be serious concern about Clay Buchholz holding up his end up the bargain.

The Red Sox do tend to be a different team at Fenway Park, but they actually only won one more game at home than they did on the road this year. There is the narrative of David Ortiz’s final ride not yet coming to an end, but the reality is Boston’s defense hasn’t been there and they’re facing a 3-0 sweep tonight.

The saving grace may be Cleveland’s pedestrian 41-39 record on the road this year and the fact that the Red Sox fans could give Boston a massive boost in this one. Buchholz wasn’t good overall in 2016, but Boston fans can at least hang their hat on his late play, where he earned three wins and looked better than usual in his last five starts.

The story isn’t really about Buchholz, however. it’s about Boston showing up in a must-win situation in front of their home crowd and bringing Tomlin down to Buchholz’s level. Given how powerful Boston can be and how favorable this matchup is for them, we tend to ride with them to keep this series alive. While that may end up being the case, the Indians are the better bet here tonight, and quite possibly the best bet of this entire slate.

Pick: Red Sox 7, Indians 5

Cubs (-105) @ Giants (-105)

The last game of the night is a potential pitcher’s duel, with Cubs ace Jake Arrieta trying to shove Chicago into the next round with a 3- sweep and Giants hurler Madison Bumgarner trying to keep his team alive at home. Logic naturally supports the man known as MadBum, as he’s been a total monster in his MLB playoff career and happens to be a staggering 9-4 at his home base (2.14 ERA) in 2016.

Bumgarner has also owned the Cubs (2-0) this year, while managing to nab a win or no decision in each of his last 10 starts.

As great as Bumgarner has been and likely will continue to be tonight, there is still the fear that Arietta will match him and a superior Cubs offense will do just enough to squeak out a third straight win. Chicago owned the best record in all of baseball (103-58) for a reason and so far in this series they’ve played elite defense and haven’t even needed their potent offense to get them out of a jam.

While that could turn tonight, the advantage goes to the Giants, who still have the strong narrative of being in three of the last seven World Series. If they’re to make it four in the last eight, they’ll need their top arm to come up big tonight and extend the series. With this game being a total MLB betting toss-up, we’ll side with Bumgarner to get them into game four.

Pick: Giants 2, Cubs 1

2016-17 NBA Odds: Who Will Win League MVP?

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Titles are the highest reward for NBA teams, but the simple reality is that there are 30 pro basketball teams and one trophy. For the 29 teams that can’t win it all, there has to be something else to look forward to. That very well may be the league’s MVP award, which actually quite often can go hand in hand with an NBA championship.

That was the case two years ago when Stephen Curry won his first MVP award, but wasn’t the case when the Cleveland Cavaliers upset the first ever unanimous league MVP (Curry got it again, in case you missed out). The addition of Kevin Durant might rectify that whole “losing the NBA Finals” thing for Golden State, but at the same time it may mean a passing of the torch when it comes to the NBA MVP is coming.

It has to, right? Durant, Curry and Klay Thompson all need their shots and it just doesn’t make sense for that trio to give one guy enough work to be named the MVP. Besides, how can Curry win the MVP of the entire league again when with KD in town, it’s pretty arguable he’s no longer the best talent on his own team?

All of that is for another day. The point is, the NBA MVP is probably changing hands after the 2016-17 season and Vegas agrees. Over at Bovada, Curry actually still has a shot with the second best NBA MVP odds, but it’s pretty arguable he should be much lower on the list. What your criteria for a league MVP is could sway things greatly. Ours? Monster stats, you’re the best player on your team, you’re the reason your time is at least moderately successful and the NBA just wouldn’t be the same without you.

I’d agree Curry at least met the criteria the past two years, but now I don’t think he does. Let’s take a quick look at the top NBA MVP odds and then see who might have the best chance to hoist the MVP trophy at the end of the 2016-17 NBA season:

2016-17 NBA MVP Odds

Per Bovada, here are the top 2016-17 NBA MVP odds:
NBA Odds From Bovada

Top Sleepers

As you can see, Bovada gives several star players at least a remote shot at snagging the award. And hey, in a constantly evolving NBA landscape, any of those guys could rise up the ranks with a monster season and make a case.

If we’re just basing the MVP case on who the best player is, LeBron James would probably win every year. And he’d love that.

But that isn’t what it’s all about. It’s about how had the best year, while also getting their team to new heights. Based on Bovada’s NBA MVP odds, here’s our favorite sleepers that truly could do that this year:

  • Karl-Anthony Towns
  • Jimmy Butler
  • DeMarcus Cousins
  • Damian Lillard

There are more NBA MVP sleepers to consider, but these are our favorite that not only sport fun odds, but could actually pull it off.

KAT was already a stud as a rookie with the T’Wolves last year, who put up 18 points and 10 boards per game with relative ease. Minnesota is trending upward, too, as they added head coach Tom Thibedaeu to lead a playoff charge. If KAT can put up well over 20 points and 10 boards per game en route to the Wolves getting back to the playoffs, he’s absolutely be in the NBA MVP conversation.

The case is pretty similar with Boogie and Lillard, who are the top stars on their respective teams. Lillard might have to do some seriously heavy lifting, though, since he already put up big numbers while keeping Portland in the playoffs last year despite losing big man LaMarcus Aldridge during free agency. If he can do that again and approach Stephen Curry numbers, he’d be in the mix for sure.

Cousins was already a monster last year, averaging nearly 27 points and 11.5 rebounds per contest. His main issue is the Kings aren’t very good and haven’t made the playoffs since he’s been around. New head coach Dave Joerger could help change the culture, though, and if Boogie can land in the playoffs with those insane numbers, he’d absolutely deserve some votes.

Butler is another NBA MVP sleeper to think about, as he’s been a beast the past two years but now won’t have Derrick Rose distracting him or Pau Gasol eating offensive touches. He has extra help with Rajon Rondo and Dwyane Wade coming in, but he figures to be the team’s top scorer and best defender again. If he can raise his play and get the Bulls back to the playoffs, he’d be hard to knock as a 2016-17 NBA MVP candidate.

Best Bets

Realistically, this is a short race with some very familiar faces. Here are the guys we’re probably looking at for this year’s NBA MVP:

  • Russell Westbrook
  • LeBron James
  • James Harden
  • Anthony Davis
  • Kawhi Leonard

Don’t worry, I’m quite aware that I’m leaving the best Warriors players out. With the way that team is stacked now, I just don’t see how anyone over there puts up insane numbers individually, plus it will be hard to argue a Dub for MVP given how much help they’re getting.

James has Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love, but it’s not the same and we all know he’s the best overall talent in the league. He’s going to be a very real threat to win it this year unless someone can pop up with ridiculous numbers and help his team to a huge year.

That puts Kawhi Leonard on the map for sure, but the three guys we need to focus on are Russell Westbrook, James Harden and Anthony Davis. The Brow was awesome for the second year in a row, but watched his Pelicans team crumble under a litany of injuries. If he can rise New Orleans from the ashes and get them back to the playoffs while putting up career numbers, he’s without a doubt an MVP threat.

The same goes for Harden, who bid Dwight Howard farewell after a losing season and honestly probably got robbed of the MVP two years ago. Now that he’s changing positions and taking on a new system, a dominant (and winning) season would be beyond impressive.

The guy that ultimately takes the cake, of course, is going to be Russell Westbrook. The walking triple-double is primed to put up the best numbers of his career and he very well could average a triple-double this season. If he comes remotely close to that and also can keep the Thunder in the playoffs after losing Kevin Durant, he’s the lock for this year’s NBA MVP award.

MLB Wildcard Betting: Analysis and Predictions For Friday’s Games

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The 2016 MLB playoffs have already been quite a sight to see, with two insane wild card games coming down to the bitter last moment and the first games of the second round starting off with some powerful offense. We might not necessarily be able to bank on more of the same when four new MLB playoff games hit the schedule on Friday, as all of the aces come out to potentially limit the fireworks.

There is a lot to consider when it comes to MLB betting in these four playoff games, so let’s take a quick look at each matchup and odds and see which way you should be leaning:

Blue Jays (+120) @ Rangers (-130)

It’s quite possible the hot run Toronto is on comes to a brief end, as tonight they’ll take their potent offense up against Yu Darvish. They displayed heroics in their wild card game and then busted the big guns out in game one of this series by demolishing Cole Hamels. It might end differently in this one, however, as Darvish is better at keeping the ball in the park and it’s just tough to see Toronto come in on the road and go nuts in two straight games to start this series.

On the other side, Texas absolutely has the better matchup in this game, as their equally potent offense gets the more beatable J.A. Happ. Texas didn’t even show up on offense in game one, so it’s a safe bet the Rangers will come out to play with their backs against the wall here in a 0-1 hole.

Look for Darvish to spin a gem and the Rangers to do just enough to tie this series up.

Pick: Rangers 4, Blue Jays 2

Red Sox (-110) @ Indians (EVEN)

Boston and Cleveland engaged in a home run derby last night, with the two exhanging blows until the Indians survived late, 5-4. Cleveland stole a game they probably shouldn’t have won with Trevor Bauer doing just enough to out-duel Rick Porcello. That could be a tough start to overcome for Boston, who now needs to get a win with Cleveland ace Corey Kluber hitting the mound.

This is not a good matchup for the Red Sox, but luckily they have an elite arm on their side as well, with David Price toeing the rubber tonight.

That should draw this even, and with both offenses having plenty of pop, it stands to reason the Sox can do just enough to tie this thing up at one game a piece. That could make for a low-scoring game despite two elite offenses hitting the diamond tonight, while the odds here don’t offer much upside, regardless of who you like.

Pick: Red Sox 4, Indians 2

Dodgers (-142) @ Nationals (+132)

This is without a doubt the game to check out today, as Clayton Kershaw and Max Scherzer give us an epic pitcher battle. Scherzer gets the benefit of being at home, backed by the superior offense, while Kershaw needs to exorcise some serious demons (2-6 in playoffs in career) to get the Dodgers going in the right direction.

Kershaw was amazing all year (just 11 walks!) and can K any lineup into oblivion, but there could be too much working against him here. Not only is Washington’s lineup high powered and stacked, but he’s also on the road and going up against an arm that truly is just about as good. We certainly hope Kershaw can finally deliver a huge playoff performance, but fear it will probably be in vain. Washington is oddly the underdog here at home despite logic supporting them greatly. With these odds, they’re a fun bet.

Pick: Nationals 3, Dodgers 2

Giants (+160) @ Cubs (-175)

Last, but not least, we have everyone’s favorite pick to run the table (Cubs) welcoming the Giants to Wrigley Field. San Francisco comes prepared, as ace Johnny Cueto looks to get them started off on the right foot after winning an intense wild card game against the New York Mets.

Cueto will have his work cut out for him, as he gets to face the best offense in baseball (on the road, mind you) and Jon Lester isn’t a fun arm to duel with, either. Lester and Chicago’s offense are probably too much of a winning combination to get around here, and you can see why the Cubs are strong favorites to get this series started.

While Chicago probably wins tonight, San Francisco has some of the worst MLB playoff odds for this slate, which makes them quite playable. Keep in mind the Giants could be riding high from their emotional wild card win, while they’ve also gone on World Series runs every other year since 2010. That could make 2016 another title season and if so, it just might get started off with a bang tonight. We do still prefer the Cubs here, but it’s only wise to consider all narratives.

Pick: Cubs 6, Giants 3

That does it for today’s look at the MLB playoff betting slate. This isn’t a spot to go super hard with your bets, but putting a little cash down on your favorite plays does make the whole day a lot more fun. Regardless of how you bet today, good luck!

Daily Fantasy Basketball Preseason Advice For Tuesday, 10/4

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We’re already two nights into the new 2016-17 NBA season, with a total of nine NBA preseason games behind us – including two games showcasing overseas talent.

We’ve seen Victor Oladipo drop 34 points, Jimmer Fredette torch the Rockets and a slew of young guys make their case for roster spots and/or bigger roles going into the regular season.

That actually bleeds into the trouble of picking the best DFS NBA preseason team – the fact that the young guys play a good deal and it’s impossible to know what to expect from a minutes perspective. We usually get a good idea based on early inactives, while sometimes news leaks that certain players will sit or be limited.

But regular season daily fantasy basketball can be tough to stay on top of. Needless to say, preseason NBA DFS is not for the faint of heart – and while quite fun – we wouldn’t suggest throwing loads of cash at big GPPs.

That being said, we cashed personally both times DraftKings hosted daily fantasy basketball preseason leagues (Saturday and Monday), so if you put in the time and gauge which young talent is worth rolling the dice with, you can definitely win some money.

Let’s break down all six games for Tuesday night’s slate and see which way you’ll want to lean in DFS NBA games tonight:

Boston Celtics @ Philadelphia 76ers

76ers Breakdown

This game would have been loads of fun had rookie #1 draft pick Ben Simmons not broken his foot. It should still be a good time, as Joel Embiid will make his Sixers debut after spending the last two seasons shelved with his own foot problems.

Exactly how much Embiid will play is anyone’s guess, and that narrative can be spun either way. The guy will obviously need work to shake off a ton of in-game rust, but the Sixers also probably don’t want to risk injury by playing him too much in a meaningless game. Because of that, he’ll be tempting but ultimately risky as a DFS NBA option.

Instead, we might look to rookie forward Dario Saric, who was strong at the Rio Olympics this summer and has been a highly touted overseas talent for a while now. He should see some solid run and his high level inside/outside game makes him an attractive play. Just keep in mind that he’s been dealing with some back tightness and it’s possible he sits this first game out.

Jerryd Bayless (wrist) is probably not playing tonight, so we can take a look at guys like T.J. McConnell and Sergio Rodriguez if we want to get cute. They’re not overly reliable talents, though, so fading Sixers point guards might be the way to go here.

Philly actually has a ton of fun talent coming off their bench, possibly putting guys like Nik Stauskas, Hollis Thompson, Gerald Henderson, Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot and Jerami Grant in play. Nerlens Noel and Robert Covington will naturally be worth a look, too, especially with Embiid potentially limited and Jahlil Okafor (knee) ruled out.

The Sixers are a pretty deep team, surprisingly, but Bayless, Okafor and Simmons all being out opens things up considerably. You can consider a lot of these guys, but depending on final word, our favorite targets would be Saric, Embiid, Covey and Noel.

Celtics Breakdown

For Boston, you should see the usual suspects, while Al Horford makes his debut and rookie swingman Jaylen Brown will play in his first NBA game. It’s tough to say how much Boston’s starters will play, but we know Isaiah Thomas can score in bunches and Horford could get some nice touches in his first game as a Celtic.

The bench beyond Brown isn’t overly attractive, as Marcus Smart isn’t very efficient and James Young and R.J. Hunter haven’t even proven they’re NBA players yet. Terry Rozier is probably their other big bench guy to consider, provided we get a good idea of his run.

Kelly Olynyk (shoulder) and Gerald Green (hip) are both likely to sit this one out, so that does open the door to a little more run for a lot of the young guys.

Miami Heat @ Washington Wizards

Heat Breakdown

Miami could be one of those teams that takes a longer look at their starting five tonight, seeing as Chris Bosh (blood clots) won’t be back and Dwyane Wade left for the Bulls.

This looks like a good spot to target young Miami players, as they’re pretty banged up at the moment with Josh Richardson (knee), Hassan Whiteside (knee) and Josh McRoberts (foot) all possibly out tonight.

Whiteside would be worth a cursory glance alongside Goran Dragic if he plays, seeing as he can grab rebounds and block shots at an alarming rate. If he’s out, we’ll probably see a lot of Derrick Williams at the four. Williams is already slated to start, so if any bigs are out, his value naturally increases:

Dion Waiters is not really the most efficient player, so in capped minutes we’ll be fading. Luke Babbitt and James Johnson could both see time at the three and four spot, opening the door to some extra run. This is a pretty messy situation overall, though, so we’re mostly going for Derrick Williams here, while mildly considering Tyler Johnson and maybe Whiteside if he does in fact start.

Wizards Breakdown

Washington could be a team on the rise this year, but they won’t enter tonight’s preseason opener at full strength, as star point guard John Wall (knee surgeries) is already ruled out. That puts freshly added Trey Burke in as the starting point guard, and thanks to his ever inefficient ways, we’re not overly excited about that.

Burke does have upside as a scoring point guard, though, and he’ll be joined in the starting five by Bradley Beal, Otto Porter, Markieff Morris and Marcin Gortat. Head coach Scott Brooks has made it known that he probably won’t give his main five 20+ minutes, however, so all these guys could carry some risk:

Of that group, the most attractive are Gortat, Beal and maybe Burke. Burke is inefficient, but the Wiz really just have him and Tomas Satoransky. Satoransky has actually gotten rave reviews in camp, but we can’t trust his minutes or production yet.

That situation may be best avoided, but Gortat can rip down a double-double in 20 minutes or less and Beal (especially with no Wall) could easily hoist 10+ shots tonight and put up some solid numbers. Beal is pretty hit or miss, of course, so there is risk there, also.

The Wiz don’t have much fun bench fodder, with Kelly Oubre trying to compete for the starting SF gig and both Ian Mahinmi and Marcus Thornton banged up. We’re fading this side of this game for the most part, but Beal and Gortat are fairly tempting.

Indiana Pacers @ New Orleans Pelicans

Pacers Breakdown

Jeff Teague, Thaddeus Young and Al Jefferson all prepare to make their Pacers debuts tonight, which could naturally put all in play for some daily fantasy basketball exposure. Big Al is not safe, but he could see some run with Myles Turner (concussion) ruled out for tonight’s action.

Teague and Thad are much safer, but it’s unclear how much run the Indy starters will get. Monta Ellis and Paul George complete the likely starting five, and both should be on a minutes cap, as well.

Aaron Brooks and Jeremy Evans are both out tonight due to injury, which could give extra opportunity to the likes of Joseph Young, Rodney Stuckey, C.J. Miles and even Glenn Robinson III. These are guys that are tough to trust even when you know they’re playing 30+ minutes, however, so we’re not into taking steep dives like that.

Hopefully the Pacers will keep their main guys out longer in order to boost their chemistry. Logic certainly supports the notion. If not, this game may be best left avoided on the Pacers side.

Pellies Breakdown

New Orleans prepares for their second NBA preseason game of the 2016-17 season. Per reports, that still won’t mean big minutes from Anthony Davis, who logged just 11 minutes in game one. Stars like Jrue Holiday (personal) and Tyreke Evans (knee) remain out, too, so the Pellies could be a fun spot once again to target young talents that are trying to prove themselves.

The Brow is always attractive because he can do so much in a small period of time, of course, so if there are whispers of more playing time, we definitely see the worth.

Buddy Hield, Tim Frazier, E’Twaun Moore, Langston Galloway, Lance Stephenson and Terrence Jones all performed well in the first preseason game, though, and depending on minutes distribution, could be worth closer looks. Hield and Frazier lead the way as DFS targets, as both saw a ton of action in game one and are new to the team.

The Pellies will naturally want to see what Hield can do should he end up starting at shooting guard this year, while Frazier could end up as the team’s starting point guard if he proves himself enough. Jones actually paved the way in minutes in game one and if Brow is limited again, would be a hot target.

For the most part, we’re really only focusing on Hield, Jones and Frazier in this one.

New York Knicks @ Houston Rockets

Knicks Breakdown

New York’s new “super team” debuts tonight, with Derrick Rose, Courtney Lee and Joakim Noah all possibly slated to play in their first game as members of the Knicks.

Rose has some legal stuff going on that cloud things up a bit, while Noah has a hamstring issue that could potentially keep him out. The latest word is that Rose will play, but I don’t really trust his efficiency or run in his first game.

Needless to say, as exciting as this new team might be, their newest additions might be pretty risky. As far as the starting five goes, that may mean we can really only look at Carmelo Anthony and Kristaps Porzingis.

Those two are in play even if they only play around 20 minutes, as Melo can score in bunches and Zinger can do it all. The other starters aren’t very appealing, while the bench is full of unproven talent. Ron Baker can shoot but might not even play, Guillermo Hernangomez and Mindaugas Kuzminskas are both talented rookies and Justin Holiday can ball a bit. That being said, run and upside could be limited here.

For the most part, it’s Melo/Zinger or fade here.

Rockets Breakdown

Houston is another team preparing for their second exhibition game of the year, having played China’s Shanghai Sharks on Sunday. James Harden and the key Rockets players actually played a ton, and if that’s to happen again, Harden will naturally be on everyone’s DFS radar. It’s hard to think he won’t, seeing as Patrick Beverley (knee) won’t play tonight and Harden is the team’s new starting point guard. Still, monitor the situation and act accordingly.

Should the starters get run like that again, we obviously need to seriously consider Ryan Anderson, Eric Gordon and Trevor Ariza. Houston’s center position may be a bit dicey, with Nene Hilario and Clint Capela both likely splitting time as they battle for the starting spot.

Houston reserves are difficult to trust here, but guys like Gary Payton II, Sam Dekker, Montrezl Harrell, Kyle Wiltjer and K.J. McDaniels are appealing if for some reason we get the tip off that they’ll get nice run.

For now, we’d probably roll with Harden or Anderson if we hear they’ll get good minutes again and fade the rest.

Sacramento Kings @ Los Angeles Lakers

Kings Breakdown

The Kings are a tough team to gauge, as Rudy Gay wants out, shooting guard has a logjam and Darren Collison is slated to miss the first 8 games of the year due to suspension.

That could force the Kings to give Ty Lawson and/or Jordan Farmar more run than usual tonight. How much Collison ends up playing is anyone’s guess.

At the two spot, Arron Afflalo is the likely starter, but he could get heated competition out of Ben McLemore and Garrett Temple. Youngsters Isaiah Cousins and Malachi Richardson are even interesting talents that could deserve a chance to prove themselves during preseason play.

DeMarcus Cousins owns all at center, so the big question will be if he plays, and how much. Boogie is always a man amongst boys and if he can get any kind of decent run against the Lakers, he’s a must-use guy. That’s not a stretch, either, since he’ll be playing a little differently in new head coach Dave Joerger’s offense. The hope for solid run could make Boogie the top player to own on the night.

Rudy Gay could also be in play given that logic, while bench guys like Skal Labissiere and Willie Cauley-Stein could also warrant consideration.

Just check up on the starting lineup and projected minutes. If Lawson starts he could be a fun try, while the main target above all others is obviously Boogie if he’s going to get some good run.

Lakers Breakdown

The Lakers have been a trash team the past few years, but there’s some serious optimism that slowly starts to change with rookie head coach Luke Walton in town. Walton teaches team concepts and flowing offense, but he also is just such a positive shift from Byron Scott.

D’Angelo Russell and Julius Randle were held back in the worst way under Scott, and the hope is that changes immediately in the first preseason game. They could get very nice run in Walton’s new system, both to get used to starter minutes and to start perfecting the new offense.

Regardless, other Lakers like Larry Nance Jr., Jordan Clarkson, Lou Williams, Luol Deng, Timofey Mozgov and Yi Jianlian could all see solid run. None of those guys are nearly as appealing as DLo or Randle, admittedly.

Los Angeles Clippers @ Golden State Warriors

Clippers Breakdown

The Clippers open up their NBA preseason schedule against the hated Warriors, where they’ll get their first look at Kevin Durant at the Oracle Arena. The matchup isn’t ideal, but it’s possible Doc Rivers sends his studs out there for a good amount of time so they can get a really good first test.

Even if the starters are capped at 20 minutes or so, Chris Paul and Blake Griffin could both be solid tries in a fast-paced game. Bench guys like Raymond Felton, Austin Rivers, Jamal Crawford, Wesley Johnson, Brandon Bass and Mo Speights could also all be worth a look, depending on how the minutes shake out.

Felton, Rivers and Crawford are the most attractive bench plays here, but if we’re touching the Clippers side of this game, we’re really only looking at CP3 and Griffin.

Warriors Breakdown

The Dubs are the third team tonight that enters their second exhibition game, and it stands to reason we’ll see more out of their key starters. That’s specifically probably true for Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant, who both played fewer than 19 minutes.

Those two can fill it up even in a smaller window, but the same may not necessarily be said about Klay Thompson and Draymond Green. Thompson doesn’t do a whole lot more than score and 20 minutes might not be enough to get what you’re looking for from Dray. Unless we know for sure the run these guys are getting, the only two Golden State starters we’d pay up for are Curry and KD.

For the bench, Patrick McCaw was a hit on Saturday and due to his active defense and solid scoring ability, he could remain so tonight. The Dubs also have Ian Clark, Davis West and JaVale McGee. Clark can score fairly well, West can score and grab boards and McGee can rebound and block shots.

Overall, we only want Curry or KD here and if we’re reaching, we’d go back to the well with McCaw.

Remember, preseason daily fantasy basketball – like most basketball – depends largely on minutes. The garbage idea that “all these guys are gonna play the same minutes” is a lazy assumption and you can’t roll with that. Instead, try to research who is most likely to play and for how long.

Rolling with starters without looking could be risky, as we’ve already seen. Make sure any starters you use are likely to get good run and then try to find some bench gems that make good sense.

Most of all, good luck tonight!