Donald Cerrone vs. Jorge Masvidal Odds and Prediction

Donald ‘Cowboy’ Cerrone returns to the UFC Octagon against Jorge Masvidal at UFC on Fox 23 on January 28th, 2016.

I Know A Guy

Known as the most active fighter in the UFC, Cerrone had just beaten Matt Brown at UFC 206 last December 10th, 2016. But after disposing of the ‘Immortal’, Cerrone immediately requested to be booked for UFC on Fox 23, which will be held in his hometown of Denver, Colorado.

Known for his trademark statement ‘I know A Guy’ when volunteering to fight on short notice, Cerrone wanted to fight so badly on the event that he was willing to fight anybody the UFC would put in front of him. Cerrone is 4-0 since moving up to welterweight and he’s had impressive success. He submitted Charles Oliveira, then knocked out PAtrick Cote, Rick Story and Brown in succession. He’s looking to improve his #5 ranking in his new weight class.

Revenge Factor

Jorge Masvidal has been campaigning for a fight with Cerrone for quite some time now. After beating Jake Ellenberger at the TUF 24 Finale last month, he called out Cowboy once again.

Masvidal was slated to face Kelvin Gastelum last November at the iconic UFC 205, but Gastelum was pulled out from their bout and was booked to face Cerrone at the same event after Robbie Lawler begged off of his bout with Cowboy. Masvidal didn’t like that move and sees this fight as a way of getting his revenge on Cerrone. Masvidal owns notable victories over K.J. Noons, Tim Means, Ross Pearson and Ellenberger. However, he’s lost the biggest fights of his career and has been hit or miss lately.

Who Wins

Cerrone is a -160 favorite over Masvidal who is now at +140. Although Masvidal is coming off a big win over Ellenberger, he is 3-3 only in his last bouts.

According to Fightmetric, Masvidal lands more strikes per minute at 4.2 versus 4.16. He also has the better striking defense at 64% against 54% for Cowboy. Masvidal’s 1.98 takedowns per 15 minutes is also better than Cerrone’s 1.38. However, Cerrone is the better all-around fighter. Masvidal may give Cerrone a fight standing up but when this goes to the ground, Cowboy has all the advantage with his supreme submission skills.

Masvidal has a history of struggling against better opposition and against Cerrone, he will also be fighting in hostile territory. Masvidal is a good boxer and excellent striker but Cerrone has been in the zone lately. We’re picking Donald Cerrone to beat Jorge Masvidal in this contest.