Miguel Cotto vs. Saul Alvarez Fight Odds and Prediction

Miguel Cotto and Saul Alvarez meet on Saturday in what has been dubbed as the true Pay Per View event of the year. While Mayweather-Pacquiao broke all of boxing’s revenue records, it was a fight that should have happened five years ago. #CottoCanelo is a bout of two fighters who are almost evenly matched up and are still on top of their games.

Middleweight or Catchweight

Miguel Cotto has an impressive resume, having won the WBC and lineal middleweight titles by dethroning long-time champion Sergio Martinez via 10th round TKO in June of 2014. Cotto, who also won a world title as a light welterweight, welterweight and super welterweight, is coming off a 4th round knockout of Daniel Geale last May. But although he is recognized as middleweight king, Cotto has been criticized as the new catchweight king for fighting his last two bouts at a catchweight. This one is no different as Cotto and Alvarez have agreed to meet at 155 pounds on Saturday, November 21st in Las Vegas, Nevada.

The Golden Child

The 25-year old Saul Alvarez is a former WBC, WBA and Ring Light Middleweight title holder. Alvarez beat the likes of Shane Mosley, Carlos Baldomir, Kermit Cintron and Austin Trout en route to being undefeated in his first 43 bouts. Canelo ran into Floyd Mayweather Jr. in 2013 and lost via majority decision. But he’s rebounded with impressive wins over Alfredo Angulo, Erislandy Lara and James Kirkland to set up this fight. However, Golden Boy’s top fighter has a lot on his shoulders after the promotion’s other top draws in Lucas Matthysse and David Lemieux suffered KO losses last month. Oscar De La Hoya hopes his Golden Child will deliver the big win that keep GBP afloat.

Who Takes This?

Canelo is naturally the bigger man between the two. He is also younger and is widely considered to have the bigger punch. With all the physical advantages, Alvarez must utilize them against the much older Cotto and show him the 10-year age difference. He must cut-off the ring and land his trademark combinations to stop Cotto from circling around him. Cotto meanwhile, is expected to fight away from harm’s way. Cotto’s main weapon is his left hook and he must find a way to land it. Look for Cotto to jab his way from the outside most of the time but he will have to engage the young Alvarez in order to let him feel his power punches. Cotto will probably mix his attack in and out because he can’t afford to stand in the pocket with Canelo for a long time.

Alvarez is a -300 favorite in this one while Cotto is at +225. However, the fight could be tougher than what Canelo is expecting. Cotto has found a second wind with Freddie Roach and with the master tactician plotting his strategy, expect Cotto to maximize whatever is left of his skills. He should dictate the fight early but if Alvarez weathers the early storm and settle down, he is likely to win a long and grinding bout. A late stoppage by Alvarez is expected by fight experts.