NBA Finals Game 6 Odds and Pick

The Golden State Warriors took back control in game five on Sunday night, as they broke a tight game open in the third quarter to take over the 2015 NBA Finals with a 3-2 series lead. LeBron James was as good as ever with 40 points and yet another triple-double, but it was Stephen Curry (37 points) who stepped up the most in the fourth quarter.

That was just one game, though, and the Cavs will play host in game six as they try to close out the series with two straight wins and their first ever NBA title. James seems more than confident, as he proclaimed himself the “best player in the world” and suggested he believes Cleveland can win two games in a row – just as they did in games three and four. That may happen and our original pick of the Cavs being the champs just might hold up. Let’s break down game six to see if that’s the case, though:

Golden State Warriors (1) @ Cleveland Cavaliers (2) on ABC at 9:00 pm ET

We’ve gone 3-2 in this series so far, as it’s basically been a pick’em run even with some fairly big lines in favor of the Warriors. Golden State had another nice spread in game five and ended up covering, while they enter game six at Quicken Loans Arena with another -4.5 line in their favor. That’s not a big one, and frankly it’s at least a tad surprising given the fact that the Cavs are at their best on their home court. Part of me can’t see James losing an NBA Finals in front of his home crowd, but on the other side it’s pretty obvious the Warriors have adapted over the past two games and have figured out precisely how to beat the Cavaliers. Curry has found his offense in that span and Golden State has gone small, eliminating the effectiveness of Timofey Mozgov and giving them an extra quick defender to rotate onto James.

Game six should come down to pride mostly, but if the Cavs squeak it out game seven could obviously go either way. Something tells me Golden State doesn’t want to leave that to chance, but it may not be up to them. Then again, if it’s just about James “getting his” and scoring 40+ with a triple-double, I can’t see Cleveland winning. That recipe just hasn’t consistently been working and their main advantage (their defense on Curry) looks to be gone.

Cleveland’s best chance is to play the Warriors straight up and have either Iman Shumpert or James himself on Curry the entire time. That would keep Timofey Mozgov and Tristan Thompson in the lane to keep the Warriors perimeter oriented, which should have the Cavs playing better defense and winning the battle of the boards. Defensively, I think Curry would have a much more difficult time with James or Shump on him, as they’re both elite athletes with more size and length than Matthew Dellavedova. Of course, David Blatt hasn’t made all the right moves in this series, instead seemingly deciding to only roll with what Steve Kerr decides to do (Kerr went small, so Blatt followed suit). If the series just stays the course, Golden State wins in six. If the Cavs make the right adjustment and find a way to once again take the life out of Curry’s offense, we’ll see a game seven.

I definitely see the Cavs beating the +4.5 spread, and as much as I personally want to see Golden State end this series in six, I can’t see James coming up lame on his home floor with so much on the line. He might drop 50 in this one and the Cavs could win a nail-biter. Take the Cavs straight up and ATS but given the inconsistent of these games, I don’t love the idea of chasing the Total (195).

Pick: Cavaliers 98, Warriors 96