Tag Archives: Boxing Odds

Manny Pacquiao vs. Jeff Horn: Does the Aussie Have A Chance?

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Filipino ring legend Manny Pacquiao returns to the boxing ring on July 2nd, 2017 to face young Australian Jeff Horn at the SunCorp Stadium in Brisbane, Australia.

Legend Still Has It

Aptly dubbed as the Battle of Brisbane, the bout will be for Pacquiao’s WBO welterweight title, which he won after a masterful domination of Jessie Vargas last November. The 38-year old Pacquiao announced his retirement after the bout but despite being busy with his duties as a lawmaker in his country, the Pacman’s urge to fight will bring him to Australia for the first time in his boxing career.

Although Pacquiao should be well past his prime, he still proved that he still has what it takes to take on the best welterweights in the business. Prior to beating Vargas, Pacquiao masterfully out-boxed Timothy Bradley in April of 2016 to prove that he still belongs among the elite. The victory over Bradley was his first bout since losing to Floyd Mayweather Jr. in 2015.

Dangerous Opponent

Jeff Horn is nowhere near the caliber of fighter Jessie Vargas is, much more Timothy Bradley. But unlike both, he presents a clear and present danger for Pacquiao simply because he is a wild card with nothing to lose and everything to gain.

Horn is coming off a December victory over Ali Funeka and is considered the best pound for pound fighter in Australia. He has limited athleticism but has enough power to put his opponents to sleep. Horn is also a smart boxer who can counter well and dodge punches. Manny Pacquiao though is a giant leap in level of competition for the fighting former school teacher. This is an odd fight for Pacman because he is one of the biggest names in the sport and has nothing to prove. Yet he will be fighting an unknown but solid fighter on hostile ground.

Odds and Prediction

Pacquiao is currently a -700 favorite against Horn who is at +450. As we said, the unknown factor and home crowd are a big plus for Jeff Horn. Sometimes the biggest upsets happen when you least expect them. Horn may not be a world beater but given this opportunity of a lifetime, you’ll expect him to bring his A-game.

Beating Pacquiao is easier said than done though. Despite his advanced age, Manny Pacquiao looked in tremendous shape against Jessie Vargas. He was even the faster and quicker fighter than the two. Given Manny Pacquiao’s hand speed, footwork and ring IQ, it’s going to be an uphill battle for Jeff Horn. The Aussie is sometimes lazy with his footwork and against Pacquiao, that’s a recipe for disaster. Manny Pacquiao is going to run circles around Jeff Horn. He’s going to pound him with his famous four or five punch combos. It’s going to be  dangerous fight, yes. Jeff Horn is a live opponent. But we think Pacquiao is eons better in skill and speed. We are picking Manny Pacquiao to win by unanimous decision after a little scare from Jeff Horn.

Floyd Mayweather Jr. vs. Conor McGregor Odds and Prediction

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The fight that has intrigued the world is finally on.

After more than two years of teasing, boxing’s undefeated pound for pound king Floyd Mayweather Jr. and MMA’s concurrent UFC two-division champion Conor McGregor will face each other on August 26th, 2017 in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Both Mayweather and McGregor made the announcement via social media. Showtime Sports, who will air the event, also officially announced the fight on Wednesday:

Impossible Now Done

Mayweather vs. McGregor looked like a dream fight when McGregor first told Conan O’Brien in 2015 that he would fight Mayweather if the opportunity was presented to him. The Irishman has never boxed, professionally or as an amateur, although he is considered one of the best strikers in the sport of MMA.

Mayweather himself was already retired and had not fought since beating Andre Berto in September of 2015 in what he called was the final bout of his storied boxing career. However, Mayweather had already retired before and has always said that he would return to the ring for a hundred million dollars. With that small opening, both camps tried to make a deal.

There have been several times in the last two years that the fight was reported to be close to being done. But it was never closer to reality than when Mayweather booked the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas for August 26th. Although it was subsequently reported that Mayweather cancelled the reservation, the fight itself was officially announced this Wednesday. What fight fans once thought was impossible is now done.

A Mismatch?

UFC President Dana White also revealed on Wednesday that Mayweather vs. McGregor will be held at the T-Mobile Arena (although there has been no official announcement on the venue) and that the bout will be fought at the boxing junior middleweight limit of 154 pounds. The pair would also use 10-ounce gloves and while White didn’t say it, it’s likely that it will be fought under pure boxing rules. McGregor has always maintained his willingness to fight Mayweather under boxing rules, although that may not be a good idea.

Put the pair in an MMA octagon with four inch gloves and McGregor will have the advantage. The Notorious has a powerful left hand that can knock anybody out, Mayweather included. But the pair will be fighting in a boxing ring where Mayweather has eluded the great boxer likes of Pacquiao, Cotto and Canelo. With that kind of real estate to work his bicycle, McGregor may find it difficult to find his target. Even Max Kellerman thinks that McGregor may not land a punch on Mayweather. That may sound like an exaggeration, but Kellerman may have at the very least meant this is a clear mismatch.

Odds and Prediction

Mayweather is a -1100 favorite to defeat McGregor, who is a sharp underdog at +700. The odds are expected to move once the Irish money starts coming in. But in reality, this line reflects the mismatch we could be seeing. Mayweather was one of boxing’s best defensive genius. He was a very smart fighter who employed the hit and run tactic like no other. If the fastest of opponents in Pacquiao and the hardest hitting in Cotto could not lay their hands on him, what chance does McGregor have?

Conor McGregor may be here primarily for the money. He’s set to make more for this single bout than what he’ll earn in his entire MMA career. But you can’t count him out because he does have punching power and speed. If his left hand connects, it’s going to be a different story. The problem is, well, if it doesn’t connect. Without his leg kicks setting up his left hand, it’s going to be a long night for Conor McGregor. Mayweather is going to dance his way to $100M. Mayweather wins this easily. No knockdowns, no dramatics. It’s just going to be a boxing lesson from the best boxer ever. Floyd Mayweather Jr. by a very very unanimous decision.

Guillermo Rigondeaux vs. Moises Flores Odds and Prediction

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Guillermo Rigondeaux takes on Mexican Moises Flores in a 12-round super bantamweight title bout which is part of the undercard of Ward-Kovalev 2 on June 17th, 2017 at the Mandalay Bay Events Center in Las Vegas, Nevada.

This fight features two unbeaten fighters with years of ring experience and world title bouts. Rigondeaux and Flores will dispute the WBA (Super), Lineal and IBO super bantamweight titles.

Two Unbeaten Fighters

Rigondeaux enters the fight with an unblemished 17-0 record with 11 KOs . The Jackal is a 5-4 southpaw who has tremendous defensive skills and who controls the ring very well. Although Rigo is now 36 years old, he has not shown any signs of slowing down. He is coming off a second round stoppage win over Jazza Dickens last July. This will be Rigondeaux’s 10th defense of the super bantamweight titles which he won from Rico Ramos in 2012.

Flores is likewise an unbeaten fighter with a record of 25-0 with 17 KOs. Like Rigondeaux, he is coming off a long layoff as his last fight was a June 2016 unanimous decision win over Paulus Ambunda. He is a free swinger who likes to let his hands fly from start to finish. He has knocked out seven of his last 11 opponents. The 30-year old Flores has a 5 inch height and 1 inch reach advantage over Rigondeaux. Even if he is the underdog here, don’t expect Flores to be gun-shy on fight night.

An Offensive Fight

Rigondeaux is a -800 favorite against Flores who is currently pegged at +500. That looks like a mismatch but this is one heck of an undercard fight. It’s going to be an offensive fight with Flores’ aggressive style and Rigondeaux’s power. No disrespect but Guillermo Rigondeaux is hands down the best super bantamweight in the business.

Call him boring, but it’s almost impossible to bet against him given his experience and skills. He may not be getting any younger but he is still the man to beat. Both Rigo’s offense and defense are elite and he would make Flores miss a lot. When the Mexican lunges forward, he will be open to Rigondeaux’s beautiful counters.

It’s going to be hard for Moises Flores to find the target and he’s going to get countered all night long once he gets frustrated. It’s going to be another boxing clinic for the Jackal. We’re picking Rigondeaux to win by a wide points margin or late stoppage.

Ward vs. Kovalev 2: Why Andre Ward is Going to Repeat Over the Krusher

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Andre Ward and Sergey Kovalev run back their 2016 thriller on June 17th, 2017 at the Mandalay Bay in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Controversial Win

It can be recalled that Ward edged Kovalev during their first fight last November 19th, 2016. Despite suffering a knockdown in round 2, Ward gained the nod of all three judges who scored the bout 114-113 unanimously. Controversy erupted as many of the media scores had Kovalev winning.

The first bout was a tale of two stories. Kovalev dominated the first part of the fight, using the 2nd round knockdown to push Ward backwards. But as the longer the fight went, Ward was able to adjust. He began to outpoint Kovalev in the later stages of the contest. Punch stats had Kovalev outpointing Ward but the latter landed more punches in the second half of the fight.

Super Fight

These are the kind of fights that boxing fans deserve to see. Kovalev and Ward were both unbeaten going into their first encounter. Ward was the former Olympic champion and professional boxing Super Middleweight king who moved up in weight to challenge the unified Light Heavyweight champion of the world.

Kovalev was the Krusher who had been knocking out one opponent after another in an unprecedented rise to the top of the division. Ward meanwhile was a ring general and tactician who used his slick boxing skills to beat the best opponents he faced. When they collided, it was a super fight of different styles. As we said, it came down to the judges’ scorecards and only one point separated them.

Pick ‘Em Again

The odds are almost even here. Ward is a -163 favorite against the +130 Kovalev. So we’re getting another pick’em fight from the two best fighters in the division. It’s really hard to pick a winner here because as we saw in the first fight, these are two brilliant fighters who have different styles. Kovalev and Ward were able to do what they wanted to and it all came down to what the judges preferred more.

But to choose between the two, you cannot go against Andre Ward. Ward is the better boxer and more technically sound fighter. As we saw in the first bout, he was able to make adjustments. Kovalev got the early knockdown but he wasn’t able to adjust to Ward’s reply. Having said that, when you have Kovalev in a fight, he can end it anytime because he has the power that Ward doesn’t. The Krusher has shown that he can hurt Ward. Ward showed he can outsmart Kovalev. So in another chess match, we’re going with Andre Ward in another close (and controversial to Kovalev) decision win.

Adonis Stevenson vs. Andrzej Fonfara Odds and Prediction

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World Light heavyweight champion Adonis Stevenson will defend his WBC and Lineal titles against Andrzej Fonfara in a rematch of their 2014 bout. The two will meet again on June 3rd, 2017 at the Bell Centre in Montreal, Quebec, Canada.

In their first bout, Stevenson came out of the gates firing. He dominated the first seven rounds and dropped Fonfara in rounds three and five. But just when we thought it would be a matter of time before Adonis Superman got another KO, Fonfara fought his way back and had Stevenson in trouble after knocking him down in the 9th round. The champion was able to hang on though and win by unanimous decision.

Road to the Rematch

After the defeat, Fonfara won three fights in a row including high profile wins over Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. and Nathan Cleverly. But then Fonfara suffered a major setback after getting knocked out by the unheralded Joe Smith in June of 2016. He’s rebounded from that defeat with a KO win over Chad Dawson last March.

Stevenson, meanwhile, successfully defended his belts four more times after fighting Fonfara. He knocked out Dmitry Sukhotsky, Tom Karpency and Thomas Williams Jr. and decisioned Saiko Bika. Superman has not lost a bout since getting knocked out by Darnell Boone in his only professional defeat in 2010. He is nearing 40 years old but remains a force to be reckoned with because of his powerful left hand.

Odds and Prediction

Stevenson is a -2000 favorite over the +800 Fonfara. But these are just numbers. Fonfara does have size advantage and is the much younger and athletic fighter between the two. Although Stevenson beat Fonfara by unanimous decision three years ago, the latter was able to land on Superman and both fighters were dropped in that bout. So if you’re looking for an upset, there is value with the big plus money.

However, if you compare the skill-set of both fighters, Stevenson is the more complete boxer. He also packs more power in his fists, has better head movement and more importantly, has shown that he can take a punch better than Fonfara. Fonfara has been knocked out twice in his career and we saw that in his recent fight against Joe Smith where he was a -2300 favorite. Stevenson will also be fighting in front of a home crowd that is surely going to be a big factor should Fonfara survive Superman’s juggernaut. Either way, we’re picking Adonis Stevenson to beat Andrzej Fonfara here.

Boxing Ring

Kell Brook vs. Errol Spence Odds and Prediction

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Kell Brook returns to welterweight to defend his IBF title against mandatory challenger Errol Spence of the United States.  The bout will be held on May 27th, 2017 at Bramall Lane in Sheffield, England, which is Brook’s hometown.

Brook’s Big Balls

Brook is coming off a punishing defeat at the hands of unified middleweight champion Gennady Golovkin last September 10th, 2016. As if Golovkin wasn’t a challenge big enough for him, Brook fights at welterweight to defend his IBF belt against the most dangerous non-champion out there.

Errol Spence is undefeated in 21 bouts with 18 KOs. The former US 2012 Olympian has been on a tear lately, stopping Chris Van Heerden, Alejandro Barrera, Chris Algieri and Leonard Bundu in succession. He is the IBF’s #1 contender and is looking to win his first ever world title. Brook is Spence’s toughest opponent to date while Brook is being praised for his willingness to fight a tough foe in Spence immediately after his loss to Triple G.

Champ is Underdog

Interestingly, Spence is the odds on favorite here at -165 while the champion Brook is at +145. The lines are close, yes but the oddsmakers are giving the younger and less experienced fighter the edge over a battle tested champion. But as his nickname is, Errol Spence is The Truth.

The southpaw Spence has a three inch reach advantage over Brook and that could play an important factor in this fight. Being the better overall pure boxer between the two, the edge in length will enable Spence to set up his punches with his jabs. Spence has power in both hands and has stopped his last eight opponents, but he’s not your usual power puncher who rushes for the KO and swings wildly on his opponent. He’s got a high boxing IQ and a polished defense.

Length and Power Decides

Brook has the advantage because he will be fighting in front of his home crowd and he will be very motivated to bounce back from his loss to Gennady Golovkin. Like Spence, he has a high boxing IQ and can fight on the inside and outside. He also has more experience than the American, but as we said earlier, Spence has the length and power advantages over him. Having said that, it’s hard to pick against Spence right now. He’s on an impressive winning roll and has matured a lot in recent years.

We’re picking Errol Spence to win by decision or late stoppage.

Terence Crawford vs. Felix Diaz Odds and Prediction

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Terence Crawford defends his WBC, WBO, Ring and Lineal junior welterweight titles against challenger and former Olympic Gold medalist Felix Diaz on May 20th, 2017 at the Mecca of Sports, Madison Square Garden.

Fighting on A Big Stage

Crawford is considered as one of the top pound for pound fighters in the world. His journey to becoming one of boxing’s biggest stars has been well-documented. But while Crawford’s name has risen from the ranks, he has never really fought on a big stage. Sure, he packed Omaha’s Century Link Center  each time he fought and he defeated Viktor Postol at the MGM Grand Garden Arena, but none of his previous wins have been fought in a venue as big as the Madison Square Garden. Now Crawford looks to extend his unbeaten record to 31 against a challenger not many people are familiar with.

2008 Olympic Gold medalist Felix Diaz is on the brink of superstardom. He is coming off a TKO win over Levi Morales last December. Prior to that, Diaz notched his biggest career win, upsetting the highly regarded Sammy Vasquez by unanimous decision. In search of his first professional world title, he faces an overwhelming favorite.

Are The Lines Exaggerated?

Crawford is currently a -1700 favorite and Diaz comes in as the obvious under dog at +1100. Don’t let those numbers fool you. The lines are exaggerated because of the name ‘Crawford’ and because the casuals do not know who Felix Diaz is.

Diaz is a former Olympic Gold medalist who has beaten a handful of good fighters in the pros without any trouble. Although he is shorter, Diaz has the athleticism to give Crawford a run for his money or even stage an upset. His high work rate and aggressor attitude could cause some problems for Terence Crawford. If you have a few extra dollars, it wouldn’t be a terrible idea to place a small bet on Diaz.

This Bud’s For You

However, if we’re picking a winner here, we’re going with Bud Crawford. While Diaz may cause him some problem, the Dominican Republic native doesn’t pack a big punch so it’s likely the fight is going the distance. That’s going to be a problem against Crawford, who is one of the best boxers and ring tacticians in the game today. Crawford is bigger, smarter and has a big edge in punching power. If Diaz throws wild shots at Crawford, it might be a quick fight. In all likelihood, this will be a decision win for Crawford. A knockout though isn’t out of the picture. We’re picking Terence Crawford to win on points.

Gary Russell vs. Oscar Escandon Fight Odds and Prediction

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Gary Russell Jr. makes the second defense of his WBC Featherweight title against interim titlist Oscar Escandon on May 20th, 2017 at the MGM National Harbor in Oxon Hill, Maryland.

Another Long Layoff

Russell will be making his return from another long layoff. He won the belt by beating Jhonny Gonzalez in March of 2015 but it took another 13 months before he stopped Patrick Hyland in two rounds. Now, it’s been another 13 months since the Hyland bout and Russell will be facing the man who was given the interim title during Russell’s hiatus.

Big Opportunity

For Oscar Escandon, this won’t be just an opportunity to legitimize his title but it will be a chance to beat a big name on a big stage. Escandon became the interim champion with a 7th round KO win over Robinson Castellanos. The fight with Russell was scheduled for March 11th but Escandon suffered a back injury while training, hence it was moved to May 20th. Escandon says he is now 100% healthy and he is ready to shock Russell the way Maidana did Adrien Broner.

The Odds

Russell is a huge favorite here at -3500 while Escandon is at +1750. But don’t let the line deceive you. Escandon is a better fighter than what it says and he is definitely not a pushover. He may not be on Russell’s level but he has never lost a fight decisively in his boxing career. His two defeats were by close split decisions. Escandon may be very shot at just 5-1 but don’t underestimate him because of that. He works the body well and he also packs a good looking punch. He has very sound defense and he often throws off his opponents because of his size ( or the lack thereof ).

The Prediction

As good as his credentials are, however, Gary Russell is one of the elite boxers of today. He is known for his speed and combinations but has been on a ‘power trip’ as of late. Russell has won his last two fights by KO and he’s stopped six of his last nine opponents. Russell is coming off a win over Patrick Hyland and has been on a roll since suffering his only loss to Vasyl Lomachenko. Having said that, Escandon will have his hands full and will need to deliver a performance of a lifetime to walk away with the title.

It’s hard to pick against Gary Russell Jr. here, so we’re predicting a decisive win for Russell. It may or may not be a KO but it will definitely make a statement to the other featherweight champions. That being said, the odds for an Escandon win are as playable as they get, so a flier bet on the upset could be worth a try.

Saul "Canelo" Alvarez

An All Mexican Showdown: Canelo Alvarez vs. Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. Odds and Preview

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Cinco De Mayo weekend heats up as the two most popular Mexican fighters today square off in a catchweight bout on May 6th, 2017 at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.

The Real Deal

Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez is Golden Boy’s flagship fighter. He is also the best fighter from Mexico, regardless of weight class. Alvarez was looking at a mega buck showdown with Gennady Golovkin  but with negotiations failing, he settled for this all-Mexican showdown against the son of the legend.

Canelo hasn’t lost since getting schooled by Floyd Mayweather Jr. in 2013. Alvarez has won six in a row since losing to Money,  including four by stoppage. In his most recent bout, Alvarez returned to the title picture by stopping Liam Smith last September.

Son of the Legend

Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. has always been overshadowed by his great father and namesake. The former WBC middleweight champion has also been hounded by personal problems all throughout his career.  Still, he has found his way to yet another big fight. Junior hopes to erase all doubts about show serious he is with his boxing career.

The Odds

Canelo is a -700 favorite against Chavez Jr., who is a +450 underdog as of this writing. Alvarez has knockout power and does a good job working the body. Defensively, Canelo is sharp and he has a proven chin given that he has faced some of the biggest names in the sport. The only concern with Alvarez is that he sometimes has struggle controlling the ring, thus allowing quick and athletic opponents to move from harm’s way. Knowing his opponent though, this shouldn’t be a problem on fight night.

Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. only knows one way to fight and that’s moving forward. He likes to use a lot of activity and would rather punch his way to winning rounds rather than wait to land his haymaker. Like Alvarez, Junior likes to work his opponent’s body. He also has knockout power if he can land his right hand. The problem with Junior here, as is with his previous fights,  will be the weight.

Weight is a Factor

The bout is contracted for 164.5 pounds. It will be the highest weight at which Canelo will have fought in. For Chavez though, it will be the lightest weight since he fought Sergio Martinez for the world middleweight title in 2012. Since then, Chavez has struggled with his weight. In his most recent bout, Chavez weighed in at 169 against Dominik Britsch. It will be interesting how he carries the lighter weight against Canelo.

Weight aside, Canelo Alvarez is the superior fighter here. Alvarez is simply the better skilled and more polished boxer. He also has the better experience against top level competition. We’re not discounting the possibility of a Chavez upset, by KO or otherwise, but it’s hard to see him outbox and outsmart Canelo Alvarez. Love or hate Saul Alvarez, he is Mexico’s best boxer. And we’ll see that on Cinco de Mayo weekend. We’re picking Alvarez to win by late KO or points.

Luke Campbell vs. Darleys Perez Odds and Prediction

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Britain’s Golden Boy Luke Campbell will fight in the Joshua-Klitschko undercard in a bout that has been declared as a Lightweight title eliminator. The 2012 Olympic Gold medalist will fight former world champion Darleys Perez for the right to face WBA Lightweight champion Jorge Linares.

British Golden Boy

Campbell is Britain’s version of the Golden Boy after capturing gold in both the 2008 European Championships and 2012 Olympics. In winning the latter, Campbell became the first bantamweight from England to win the Olympic Bantamweight gold since 1908. In 2013, he was appointed MBE and turned pro later that year.

As a prize fighter, Campbell has compiled an impressive 16-1 with 13 KOS record. His only blot was a close and controversial split decision loss to Frenchman Yvan Mendy. Campbell has won 10 of his last 11 bouts and he is coming off a 2nd round TKO win over Jairo Lopez last February. Campbell has recorded nine stoppages in his last 10 victories.

His opponent is a man who held the WBA belt Linares now owns. Darleys Perez defended that title three times before losing it to Anthony Crolla. Crolla meanwhile lost the belt to Linares. Perez has won 10 of his last 14 bouts and is coming off a November draw with Maurice Hooker. Six of his last eight victories have been by decision.

The Prediction

Campbell is a solid -500 over Perez who is currently at +350. However, this is no walk in the park for the Briton. Perez is a former world champion who has vast fighting experience. The Columbian is tough,quick and an effective counter puncher. Over the years, Perez has proven that he can absorb punishment and still be in the fight. He’s not going to be intimidated by Campbell and won’t be discouraged by the hometown crowd at Wembley. That’s what Luke Campbell has to be wary about here. He can’t be discouraged if he doesn’t put away Perez early.

Having said that, though, Campbell has to feel confident knowing that Perez got knocked out by Anthony Crolla in his most recent loss because Crolla isn’t known for his punching power. Luke Campbell has tremendous punching power and packs the bigger punches than both Crolla and Perez. He is the far more skilled and polished boxer in this match-up so he can also win this bout on the judges’ scorecards. At the end of the day, it’s going to be a victory for Luke Campbell. Either way, it’s not going to be easy but he will come out of this fight the victor and a better fighter. And well prepared for a possible title shot against Jorge Linares.

We’re picking Luke Campbell to win this fight by late stoppage or unanimous decision.