Tag Archives: Boxing Predictions

Ward vs. Kovalev 2: Why Andre Ward is Going to Repeat Over the Krusher

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Andre Ward and Sergey Kovalev run back their 2016 thriller on June 17th, 2017 at the Mandalay Bay in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Controversial Win

It can be recalled that Ward edged Kovalev during their first fight last November 19th, 2016. Despite suffering a knockdown in round 2, Ward gained the nod of all three judges who scored the bout 114-113 unanimously. Controversy erupted as many of the media scores had Kovalev winning.

The first bout was a tale of two stories. Kovalev dominated the first part of the fight, using the 2nd round knockdown to push Ward backwards. But as the longer the fight went, Ward was able to adjust. He began to outpoint Kovalev in the later stages of the contest. Punch stats had Kovalev outpointing Ward but the latter landed more punches in the second half of the fight.

Super Fight

These are the kind of fights that boxing fans deserve to see. Kovalev and Ward were both unbeaten going into their first encounter. Ward was the former Olympic champion and professional boxing Super Middleweight king who moved up in weight to challenge the unified Light Heavyweight champion of the world.

Kovalev was the Krusher who had been knocking out one opponent after another in an unprecedented rise to the top of the division. Ward meanwhile was a ring general and tactician who used his slick boxing skills to beat the best opponents he faced. When they collided, it was a super fight of different styles. As we said, it came down to the judges’ scorecards and only one point separated them.

Pick ‘Em Again

The odds are almost even here. Ward is a -163 favorite against the +130 Kovalev. So we’re getting another pick’em fight from the two best fighters in the division. It’s really hard to pick a winner here because as we saw in the first fight, these are two brilliant fighters who have different styles. Kovalev and Ward were able to do what they wanted to and it all came down to what the judges preferred more.

But to choose between the two, you cannot go against Andre Ward. Ward is the better boxer and more technically sound fighter. As we saw in the first bout, he was able to make adjustments. Kovalev got the early knockdown but he wasn’t able to adjust to Ward’s reply. Having said that, when you have Kovalev in a fight, he can end it anytime because he has the power that Ward doesn’t. The Krusher has shown that he can hurt Ward. Ward showed he can outsmart Kovalev. So in another chess match, we’re going with Andre Ward in another close (and controversial to Kovalev) decision win.

Adonis Stevenson vs. Andrzej Fonfara Odds and Prediction

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World Light heavyweight champion Adonis Stevenson will defend his WBC and Lineal titles against Andrzej Fonfara in a rematch of their 2014 bout. The two will meet again on June 3rd, 2017 at the Bell Centre in Montreal, Quebec, Canada.

In their first bout, Stevenson came out of the gates firing. He dominated the first seven rounds and dropped Fonfara in rounds three and five. But just when we thought it would be a matter of time before Adonis Superman got another KO, Fonfara fought his way back and had Stevenson in trouble after knocking him down in the 9th round. The champion was able to hang on though and win by unanimous decision.

Road to the Rematch

After the defeat, Fonfara won three fights in a row including high profile wins over Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. and Nathan Cleverly. But then Fonfara suffered a major setback after getting knocked out by the unheralded Joe Smith in June of 2016. He’s rebounded from that defeat with a KO win over Chad Dawson last March.

Stevenson, meanwhile, successfully defended his belts four more times after fighting Fonfara. He knocked out Dmitry Sukhotsky, Tom Karpency and Thomas Williams Jr. and decisioned Saiko Bika. Superman has not lost a bout since getting knocked out by Darnell Boone in his only professional defeat in 2010. He is nearing 40 years old but remains a force to be reckoned with because of his powerful left hand.

Odds and Prediction

Stevenson is a -2000 favorite over the +800 Fonfara. But these are just numbers. Fonfara does have size advantage and is the much younger and athletic fighter between the two. Although Stevenson beat Fonfara by unanimous decision three years ago, the latter was able to land on Superman and both fighters were dropped in that bout. So if you’re looking for an upset, there is value with the big plus money.

However, if you compare the skill-set of both fighters, Stevenson is the more complete boxer. He also packs more power in his fists, has better head movement and more importantly, has shown that he can take a punch better than Fonfara. Fonfara has been knocked out twice in his career and we saw that in his recent fight against Joe Smith where he was a -2300 favorite. Stevenson will also be fighting in front of a home crowd that is surely going to be a big factor should Fonfara survive Superman’s juggernaut. Either way, we’re picking Adonis Stevenson to beat Andrzej Fonfara here.

Boxing Ring

Kell Brook vs. Errol Spence Odds and Prediction

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Kell Brook returns to welterweight to defend his IBF title against mandatory challenger Errol Spence of the United States.  The bout will be held on May 27th, 2017 at Bramall Lane in Sheffield, England, which is Brook’s hometown.

Brook’s Big Balls

Brook is coming off a punishing defeat at the hands of unified middleweight champion Gennady Golovkin last September 10th, 2016. As if Golovkin wasn’t a challenge big enough for him, Brook fights at welterweight to defend his IBF belt against the most dangerous non-champion out there.

Errol Spence is undefeated in 21 bouts with 18 KOs. The former US 2012 Olympian has been on a tear lately, stopping Chris Van Heerden, Alejandro Barrera, Chris Algieri and Leonard Bundu in succession. He is the IBF’s #1 contender and is looking to win his first ever world title. Brook is Spence’s toughest opponent to date while Brook is being praised for his willingness to fight a tough foe in Spence immediately after his loss to Triple G.

Champ is Underdog

Interestingly, Spence is the odds on favorite here at -165 while the champion Brook is at +145. The lines are close, yes but the oddsmakers are giving the younger and less experienced fighter the edge over a battle tested champion. But as his nickname is, Errol Spence is The Truth.

The southpaw Spence has a three inch reach advantage over Brook and that could play an important factor in this fight. Being the better overall pure boxer between the two, the edge in length will enable Spence to set up his punches with his jabs. Spence has power in both hands and has stopped his last eight opponents, but he’s not your usual power puncher who rushes for the KO and swings wildly on his opponent. He’s got a high boxing IQ and a polished defense.

Length and Power Decides

Brook has the advantage because he will be fighting in front of his home crowd and he will be very motivated to bounce back from his loss to Gennady Golovkin. Like Spence, he has a high boxing IQ and can fight on the inside and outside. He also has more experience than the American, but as we said earlier, Spence has the length and power advantages over him. Having said that, it’s hard to pick against Spence right now. He’s on an impressive winning roll and has matured a lot in recent years.

We’re picking Errol Spence to win by decision or late stoppage.

Terence Crawford vs. Felix Diaz Odds and Prediction

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Terence Crawford defends his WBC, WBO, Ring and Lineal junior welterweight titles against challenger and former Olympic Gold medalist Felix Diaz on May 20th, 2017 at the Mecca of Sports, Madison Square Garden.

Fighting on A Big Stage

Crawford is considered as one of the top pound for pound fighters in the world. His journey to becoming one of boxing’s biggest stars has been well-documented. But while Crawford’s name has risen from the ranks, he has never really fought on a big stage. Sure, he packed Omaha’s Century Link Center  each time he fought and he defeated Viktor Postol at the MGM Grand Garden Arena, but none of his previous wins have been fought in a venue as big as the Madison Square Garden. Now Crawford looks to extend his unbeaten record to 31 against a challenger not many people are familiar with.

2008 Olympic Gold medalist Felix Diaz is on the brink of superstardom. He is coming off a TKO win over Levi Morales last December. Prior to that, Diaz notched his biggest career win, upsetting the highly regarded Sammy Vasquez by unanimous decision. In search of his first professional world title, he faces an overwhelming favorite.

Are The Lines Exaggerated?

Crawford is currently a -1700 favorite and Diaz comes in as the obvious under dog at +1100. Don’t let those numbers fool you. The lines are exaggerated because of the name ‘Crawford’ and because the casuals do not know who Felix Diaz is.

Diaz is a former Olympic Gold medalist who has beaten a handful of good fighters in the pros without any trouble. Although he is shorter, Diaz has the athleticism to give Crawford a run for his money or even stage an upset. His high work rate and aggressor attitude could cause some problems for Terence Crawford. If you have a few extra dollars, it wouldn’t be a terrible idea to place a small bet on Diaz.

This Bud’s For You

However, if we’re picking a winner here, we’re going with Bud Crawford. While Diaz may cause him some problem, the Dominican Republic native doesn’t pack a big punch so it’s likely the fight is going the distance. That’s going to be a problem against Crawford, who is one of the best boxers and ring tacticians in the game today. Crawford is bigger, smarter and has a big edge in punching power. If Diaz throws wild shots at Crawford, it might be a quick fight. In all likelihood, this will be a decision win for Crawford. A knockout though isn’t out of the picture. We’re picking Terence Crawford to win on points.

Gary Russell vs. Oscar Escandon Fight Odds and Prediction

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Gary Russell Jr. makes the second defense of his WBC Featherweight title against interim titlist Oscar Escandon on May 20th, 2017 at the MGM National Harbor in Oxon Hill, Maryland.

Another Long Layoff

Russell will be making his return from another long layoff. He won the belt by beating Jhonny Gonzalez in March of 2015 but it took another 13 months before he stopped Patrick Hyland in two rounds. Now, it’s been another 13 months since the Hyland bout and Russell will be facing the man who was given the interim title during Russell’s hiatus.

Big Opportunity

For Oscar Escandon, this won’t be just an opportunity to legitimize his title but it will be a chance to beat a big name on a big stage. Escandon became the interim champion with a 7th round KO win over Robinson Castellanos. The fight with Russell was scheduled for March 11th but Escandon suffered a back injury while training, hence it was moved to May 20th. Escandon says he is now 100% healthy and he is ready to shock Russell the way Maidana did Adrien Broner.

The Odds

Russell is a huge favorite here at -3500 while Escandon is at +1750. But don’t let the line deceive you. Escandon is a better fighter than what it says and he is definitely not a pushover. He may not be on Russell’s level but he has never lost a fight decisively in his boxing career. His two defeats were by close split decisions. Escandon may be very shot at just 5-1 but don’t underestimate him because of that. He works the body well and he also packs a good looking punch. He has very sound defense and he often throws off his opponents because of his size ( or the lack thereof ).

The Prediction

As good as his credentials are, however, Gary Russell is one of the elite boxers of today. He is known for his speed and combinations but has been on a ‘power trip’ as of late. Russell has won his last two fights by KO and he’s stopped six of his last nine opponents. Russell is coming off a win over Patrick Hyland and has been on a roll since suffering his only loss to Vasyl Lomachenko. Having said that, Escandon will have his hands full and will need to deliver a performance of a lifetime to walk away with the title.

It’s hard to pick against Gary Russell Jr. here, so we’re predicting a decisive win for Russell. It may or may not be a KO but it will definitely make a statement to the other featherweight champions. That being said, the odds for an Escandon win are as playable as they get, so a flier bet on the upset could be worth a try.

Saul "Canelo" Alvarez

An All Mexican Showdown: Canelo Alvarez vs. Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. Odds and Preview

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Cinco De Mayo weekend heats up as the two most popular Mexican fighters today square off in a catchweight bout on May 6th, 2017 at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.

The Real Deal

Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez is Golden Boy’s flagship fighter. He is also the best fighter from Mexico, regardless of weight class. Alvarez was looking at a mega buck showdown with Gennady Golovkin  but with negotiations failing, he settled for this all-Mexican showdown against the son of the legend.

Canelo hasn’t lost since getting schooled by Floyd Mayweather Jr. in 2013. Alvarez has won six in a row since losing to Money,  including four by stoppage. In his most recent bout, Alvarez returned to the title picture by stopping Liam Smith last September.

Son of the Legend

Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. has always been overshadowed by his great father and namesake. The former WBC middleweight champion has also been hounded by personal problems all throughout his career.  Still, he has found his way to yet another big fight. Junior hopes to erase all doubts about show serious he is with his boxing career.

The Odds

Canelo is a -700 favorite against Chavez Jr., who is a +450 underdog as of this writing. Alvarez has knockout power and does a good job working the body. Defensively, Canelo is sharp and he has a proven chin given that he has faced some of the biggest names in the sport. The only concern with Alvarez is that he sometimes has struggle controlling the ring, thus allowing quick and athletic opponents to move from harm’s way. Knowing his opponent though, this shouldn’t be a problem on fight night.

Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. only knows one way to fight and that’s moving forward. He likes to use a lot of activity and would rather punch his way to winning rounds rather than wait to land his haymaker. Like Alvarez, Junior likes to work his opponent’s body. He also has knockout power if he can land his right hand. The problem with Junior here, as is with his previous fights,  will be the weight.

Weight is a Factor

The bout is contracted for 164.5 pounds. It will be the highest weight at which Canelo will have fought in. For Chavez though, it will be the lightest weight since he fought Sergio Martinez for the world middleweight title in 2012. Since then, Chavez has struggled with his weight. In his most recent bout, Chavez weighed in at 169 against Dominik Britsch. It will be interesting how he carries the lighter weight against Canelo.

Weight aside, Canelo Alvarez is the superior fighter here. Alvarez is simply the better skilled and more polished boxer. He also has the better experience against top level competition. We’re not discounting the possibility of a Chavez upset, by KO or otherwise, but it’s hard to see him outbox and outsmart Canelo Alvarez. Love or hate Saul Alvarez, he is Mexico’s best boxer. And we’ll see that on Cinco de Mayo weekend. We’re picking Alvarez to win by late KO or points.

Luke Campbell vs. Darleys Perez Odds and Prediction

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Britain’s Golden Boy Luke Campbell will fight in the Joshua-Klitschko undercard in a bout that has been declared as a Lightweight title eliminator. The 2012 Olympic Gold medalist will fight former world champion Darleys Perez for the right to face WBA Lightweight champion Jorge Linares.

British Golden Boy

Campbell is Britain’s version of the Golden Boy after capturing gold in both the 2008 European Championships and 2012 Olympics. In winning the latter, Campbell became the first bantamweight from England to win the Olympic Bantamweight gold since 1908. In 2013, he was appointed MBE and turned pro later that year.

As a prize fighter, Campbell has compiled an impressive 16-1 with 13 KOS record. His only blot was a close and controversial split decision loss to Frenchman Yvan Mendy. Campbell has won 10 of his last 11 bouts and he is coming off a 2nd round TKO win over Jairo Lopez last February. Campbell has recorded nine stoppages in his last 10 victories.

His opponent is a man who held the WBA belt Linares now owns. Darleys Perez defended that title three times before losing it to Anthony Crolla. Crolla meanwhile lost the belt to Linares. Perez has won 10 of his last 14 bouts and is coming off a November draw with Maurice Hooker. Six of his last eight victories have been by decision.

The Prediction

Campbell is a solid -500 over Perez who is currently at +350. However, this is no walk in the park for the Briton. Perez is a former world champion who has vast fighting experience. The Columbian is tough,quick and an effective counter puncher. Over the years, Perez has proven that he can absorb punishment and still be in the fight. He’s not going to be intimidated by Campbell and won’t be discouraged by the hometown crowd at Wembley. That’s what Luke Campbell has to be wary about here. He can’t be discouraged if he doesn’t put away Perez early.

Having said that, though, Campbell has to feel confident knowing that Perez got knocked out by Anthony Crolla in his most recent loss because Crolla isn’t known for his punching power. Luke Campbell has tremendous punching power and packs the bigger punches than both Crolla and Perez. He is the far more skilled and polished boxer in this match-up so he can also win this bout on the judges’ scorecards. At the end of the day, it’s going to be a victory for Luke Campbell. Either way, it’s not going to be easy but he will come out of this fight the victor and a better fighter. And well prepared for a possible title shot against Jorge Linares.

We’re picking Luke Campbell to win this fight by late stoppage or unanimous decision.

Andre Berto vs. Shawn Porter Odds And Preview

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Former world champions Andre Berto and Shawn Porter will meet in the main event of a Premier Boxing Champions card on April 22nd, 2017 at the Barclays Center in New York.

The bout will be the WBC’s title eliminator with the winner between the 5th ranked Porter and the 7th ranked Berto scheduled to face the new WBC champion Keith Thurman next.

Title Eliminator

Showtime Shawn Porter is just 2-2 in his last four bouts but his losses were to IBF welterweight champion Kell Brook and Thurman. Those bouts were close and went down the wire. Porter could have easily won both on another given time. Should Porter get past Berto, he may be staring at a rematch against Keith Thurman.

Like Porter, Berto’s last few bouts have been split 50-50. He’s won just half of his last eight bouts and has virtually lost to every big name that he’s faced. Berto is best remembered for being Floyd Mayweather Jr.’s retirement opponent. He has not won back to back fights since 2010. A win over Porter puts him on line to fight for the WBC belt he successfully defended five times during his peak.

Not The Same

Porter is a solid -420 favorite over Berto who is currently at +300.

Berto’s record is an impressive 31-4 with 24 KOS but he’s clearly not the same fighter he was in his prime. Ever since pulling out of the Shane Mosley bout in 2010 in the aftermath of the Haiti earthquakes, Andre Berto has not been the same ‘Beast’ inside the ring. From being undefeated in his first 27 bouts, Berto suddenly went 4-5 and although he is coming off a 4th round KO win over Victor Ortiz, it’s clear that Berto no longer has the same pop in his punches and has lost a step or two inside the ring.

The Prediction

Porter may be coming off a loss to Keith Thurman but that was a closely contested bout and Porter may have even gained more respect from it. He may not be the flashy boxer but his blue collar work ethic, high level boxing IQ and technical abilities are solid enough to get the job done. Showtime loves to come forward and press the action. That pressure and heavy work rate should pose a lot of trouble for the battle weary Berto.

Of course, Berto is still a very respectable fighter but post shoulder surgery, he cannot keep step with  the tireless Shawn Porter. We’re picking Porter to win on points. He should be able to force Berto to box him and avoid getting into a slugfest where Berto still has the puncher’s chance.

Beautiful Brutality: Why Martin Murray Will Beat Gabriel Rosado

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Martin Murray returns to the middleweight division on April 22nd when he faces veteran Gabriel Rosado at the Liverpool Echo Arena in England.

Moving Down

After three failed tries at the middleweight title which culminated in an 11th round TKO loss to Gennady Golovkin in February of 2015, Martin Murray has since campaigned at super middleweight. There, Murray won five of seven bouts but lost another title shot against Arthur Abraham in November of 2015. Another loss to countryman George Groves last June may have made Murray think twice about staying at Super Middleweight. Two fights later, he goes down to 160 pounds once again to face an opponent who, like him, has tried but failed to win a world title in his decorated career.

An Uphill Battle

Gabriel Rosado was a 21-5 up and coming contender when he was stopped by Gennady Golovkin in his first attempt at a world title back in 2013. Since then, it’s been an uphill battle for the Pennsylvania native. Rosado has won only twice since, losing four times and earning one no-contest over the period. To his credit, though, Rosado fought top some notch competition lately: Peter Quillin, Jermell Charlo, David Lemieux, Joshua Clottey and Willie Monroe Jr. With the losses piling up, Rosado needs to rebound quickly or else his career could be ending pretty soon. Facing Murray is a big challenge but it will also be a huge reward bout if Rosado wins. If you ask Rosado, there isn’t any doubt that he will.

The Odds

Murray is currently a -350 against Rosado’s +265. And while this bout is going to be competitive, brutal and bloody, we’re going with Martin Murray here. Sure, he’s always been exciting to watch with his brawling style but Rosado has been struggling in the last couple of years. With two wins in his last seven fights, he appears to be on the way down. Murray meanwhile has won five of seven bouts since the Golovkin loss. Four of those wins were by KO and his losses were to Arthur Abraham and George Groves. This fight’s in England and Murray’s only loss in his home country has been against Groves.

Murray’s weakness was his lack of power but with four KO wins in seven super middleweight fights he’s proven otherwise. Murray’s rugged style is a bad match-up for Rosado and if he’s expecting a Gatti-Ward style war, he’s not going to win this at all. Murray is one of the sport’s toughest competitors. This could end in a stoppage with the brutality expected but if this one’s going to get stopped, it will be in Murray’s favor. I can’t see Rosado winning on points either with Murray being the better all-around fighter between the two. We’re picking Martin Murray to beat Gabriel Rosado.

A New Era: Liam Smith vs. Liam Williams Odds and Prediction

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It’s Liam verus Liam on April 8th at England’s Manchester Arena when former WBO super welterweight champion Liam Smith tests the unbeaten British and Commonwealth super welterweight title holder Liam Williams in the co-main event of Terry Flanagan’s 5th title defense against Petr Petrov.

A New Era

Dubbed as ‘A New Era’, Liam vs. Liam features two of England’s best 154-pounders. Smith was the former WBO world champion before losing to Canelo Alvarez by 9th round TKO in September 2016. Smith returned to action on March 18th and won a 4-round bout against Marian Cazacu in Spain. He will be fighting on back to back months.

Williams won the British and Commonwealth 154-pound titles by stopping Gary Corcoran at the Wales Ice Rink in July of 2016. He is coming off a November victory over Gabor Gorbics. For his achievements last year, the undefeated Williams was named as the British Boxing Writers Young Boxer of the Year for 2016.

Incidentally, Smith and Williams are the #1 and #2 super welterweights in Britain, respectively so bragging rights is an added prize aside from the WBO European belt which will will be on the line when these two collide on April 8th.

Odds and Prediction

Manchester Arena will definitely be fully packed for this contest because many British boxing fans consider this to be a truly 50/50 bout. The odds currently say that Williams is a -125 and set Smith at even money at +100.

It may look interesting that the young up and comer is favored over the more experienced former world champion but Liam Williams may be the best super welterweight in Britain today. The 24-year old Welshman is a very accurate puncher who possesses a very strong right uppercut. At 5’10”, he’s got good size and length. Williams also comes in on fire, having won his last 8 bouts by stoppage.

Smith ,meanwhile, has a polished offensive game and throws very good combinations. Smith has a balanced head and body attack and while he may not have the same power as Williams but eight of his last wins have come via knockout. The one big concern here is that he will be fighting in back to back months which is always risky. No question that his last bout was just a four rounder but the quick turnaround could backfire against a talented blue-chip contender who has all the motives to beat him.

We’re picking Liam Williams to win here because he’s got the better jab and the heavier hands. Smith may appear to be much more experienced but in reality, his resume isn’t that good. So get your popcorn ready. This should be a good one but we expect Williams to remain undefeated.