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Saul "Canelo" Alvarez

An All Mexican Showdown: Canelo Alvarez vs. Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. Odds and Preview

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Cinco De Mayo weekend heats up as the two most popular Mexican fighters today square off in a catchweight bout on May 6th, 2017 at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.

The Real Deal

Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez is Golden Boy’s flagship fighter. He is also the best fighter from Mexico, regardless of weight class. Alvarez was looking at a mega buck showdown with Gennady Golovkin  but with negotiations failing, he settled for this all-Mexican showdown against the son of the legend.

Canelo hasn’t lost since getting schooled by Floyd Mayweather Jr. in 2013. Alvarez has won six in a row since losing to Money,  including four by stoppage. In his most recent bout, Alvarez returned to the title picture by stopping Liam Smith last September.

Son of the Legend

Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. has always been overshadowed by his great father and namesake. The former WBC middleweight champion has also been hounded by personal problems all throughout his career.  Still, he has found his way to yet another big fight. Junior hopes to erase all doubts about show serious he is with his boxing career.

The Odds

Canelo is a -700 favorite against Chavez Jr., who is a +450 underdog as of this writing. Alvarez has knockout power and does a good job working the body. Defensively, Canelo is sharp and he has a proven chin given that he has faced some of the biggest names in the sport. The only concern with Alvarez is that he sometimes has struggle controlling the ring, thus allowing quick and athletic opponents to move from harm’s way. Knowing his opponent though, this shouldn’t be a problem on fight night.

Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. only knows one way to fight and that’s moving forward. He likes to use a lot of activity and would rather punch his way to winning rounds rather than wait to land his haymaker. Like Alvarez, Junior likes to work his opponent’s body. He also has knockout power if he can land his right hand. The problem with Junior here, as is with his previous fights,  will be the weight.

Weight is a Factor

The bout is contracted for 164.5 pounds. It will be the highest weight at which Canelo will have fought in. For Chavez though, it will be the lightest weight since he fought Sergio Martinez for the world middleweight title in 2012. Since then, Chavez has struggled with his weight. In his most recent bout, Chavez weighed in at 169 against Dominik Britsch. It will be interesting how he carries the lighter weight against Canelo.

Weight aside, Canelo Alvarez is the superior fighter here. Alvarez is simply the better skilled and more polished boxer. He also has the better experience against top level competition. We’re not discounting the possibility of a Chavez upset, by KO or otherwise, but it’s hard to see him outbox and outsmart Canelo Alvarez. Love or hate Saul Alvarez, he is Mexico’s best boxer. And we’ll see that on Cinco de Mayo weekend. We’re picking Alvarez to win by late KO or points.

Luke Campbell vs. Darleys Perez Odds and Prediction

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Britain’s Golden Boy Luke Campbell will fight in the Joshua-Klitschko undercard in a bout that has been declared as a Lightweight title eliminator. The 2012 Olympic Gold medalist will fight former world champion Darleys Perez for the right to face WBA Lightweight champion Jorge Linares.

British Golden Boy

Campbell is Britain’s version of the Golden Boy after capturing gold in both the 2008 European Championships and 2012 Olympics. In winning the latter, Campbell became the first bantamweight from England to win the Olympic Bantamweight gold since 1908. In 2013, he was appointed MBE and turned pro later that year.

As a prize fighter, Campbell has compiled an impressive 16-1 with 13 KOS record. His only blot was a close and controversial split decision loss to Frenchman Yvan Mendy. Campbell has won 10 of his last 11 bouts and he is coming off a 2nd round TKO win over Jairo Lopez last February. Campbell has recorded nine stoppages in his last 10 victories.

His opponent is a man who held the WBA belt Linares now owns. Darleys Perez defended that title three times before losing it to Anthony Crolla. Crolla meanwhile lost the belt to Linares. Perez has won 10 of his last 14 bouts and is coming off a November draw with Maurice Hooker. Six of his last eight victories have been by decision.

The Prediction

Campbell is a solid -500 over Perez who is currently at +350. However, this is no walk in the park for the Briton. Perez is a former world champion who has vast fighting experience. The Columbian is tough,quick and an effective counter puncher. Over the years, Perez has proven that he can absorb punishment and still be in the fight. He’s not going to be intimidated by Campbell and won’t be discouraged by the hometown crowd at Wembley. That’s what Luke Campbell has to be wary about here. He can’t be discouraged if he doesn’t put away Perez early.

Having said that, though, Campbell has to feel confident knowing that Perez got knocked out by Anthony Crolla in his most recent loss because Crolla isn’t known for his punching power. Luke Campbell has tremendous punching power and packs the bigger punches than both Crolla and Perez. He is the far more skilled and polished boxer in this match-up so he can also win this bout on the judges’ scorecards. At the end of the day, it’s going to be a victory for Luke Campbell. Either way, it’s not going to be easy but he will come out of this fight the victor and a better fighter. And well prepared for a possible title shot against Jorge Linares.

We’re picking Luke Campbell to win this fight by late stoppage or unanimous decision.

A New Era: Liam Smith vs. Liam Williams Odds and Prediction

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It’s Liam verus Liam on April 8th at England’s Manchester Arena when former WBO super welterweight champion Liam Smith tests the unbeaten British and Commonwealth super welterweight title holder Liam Williams in the co-main event of Terry Flanagan’s 5th title defense against Petr Petrov.

A New Era

Dubbed as ‘A New Era’, Liam vs. Liam features two of England’s best 154-pounders. Smith was the former WBO world champion before losing to Canelo Alvarez by 9th round TKO in September 2016. Smith returned to action on March 18th and won a 4-round bout against Marian Cazacu in Spain. He will be fighting on back to back months.

Williams won the British and Commonwealth 154-pound titles by stopping Gary Corcoran at the Wales Ice Rink in July of 2016. He is coming off a November victory over Gabor Gorbics. For his achievements last year, the undefeated Williams was named as the British Boxing Writers Young Boxer of the Year for 2016.

Incidentally, Smith and Williams are the #1 and #2 super welterweights in Britain, respectively so bragging rights is an added prize aside from the WBO European belt which will will be on the line when these two collide on April 8th.

Odds and Prediction

Manchester Arena will definitely be fully packed for this contest because many British boxing fans consider this to be a truly 50/50 bout. The odds currently say that Williams is a -125 and set Smith at even money at +100.

It may look interesting that the young up and comer is favored over the more experienced former world champion but Liam Williams may be the best super welterweight in Britain today. The 24-year old Welshman is a very accurate puncher who possesses a very strong right uppercut. At 5’10”, he’s got good size and length. Williams also comes in on fire, having won his last 8 bouts by stoppage.

Smith ,meanwhile, has a polished offensive game and throws very good combinations. Smith has a balanced head and body attack and while he may not have the same power as Williams but eight of his last wins have come via knockout. The one big concern here is that he will be fighting in back to back months which is always risky. No question that his last bout was just a four rounder but the quick turnaround could backfire against a talented blue-chip contender who has all the motives to beat him.

We’re picking Liam Williams to win here because he’s got the better jab and the heavier hands. Smith may appear to be much more experienced but in reality, his resume isn’t that good. So get your popcorn ready. This should be a good one but we expect Williams to remain undefeated.