Tag Archives: Derek Brunson

UFC on Fox 27 Odds and Prediction: Ronaldo Souza vs. Derek Brunson

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Ronaldo ‘Jacare’ Souza takes on Derek Brunson on January 27th, 2018 at the main event of UFC on Fox 27 at the Spectrum Center in Charlotte, North Carolina.

Second Time

This will be the second time that these two middleweight contenders are going to fight each other. The first time they met was at the Strikeforce promotion in 2012, where Souza recorded a quick 41-second knockout of Brunson. Souza signed with the UFC the following year and has won seven of nine bouts.

Brunson meanwhile, immediately went to the UFC following his loss to Jacare and has compiled a record of 9-3 under the UFC banner. Three of Brunson’s last three fights were outside U.S. soil but for this encounter, he will be fighting in front of his hometown fans in Charlotte, North Carolina.

Contrasting Styles

Between two decorated octagon veterans, this one’s a pick ‘em fight. Jacare is the slight favorite at -160 while Brunson came back as the underdog at +140. This should be both fun and exciting to watch with two fighters trying to impose their contrasting styles on each other.

According to Fightmetric, Souza is averaging 3.24 takedowns per 15 minutes with 44.44% accuracy. Meanwhile Brunson lands 3.2 significant strikes per minute at a 46% connect rate.

Having said that, it’s pretty clear that Jacare might want to bring this fight to the ground rather than slug it out with Brunson on his feet. Brunson meanwhile is well aware that Jacare has 17 wins by submission, so he’d rather take his chances standing up rather than defending the Brazilian’s submission attempts on the ground.

Not The Same Fighter

When he’s at his best, Jacare Souza is one of the sport’s premier grapplers and wrestlers. As we said, he has 17 wins by submission and that represents 58% of his total victories to date. He is coming off the first knockout loss of his career against Robert Whitaker but he’s never lost back to back fights before in his career. The only concern here is that Souza is already 38 years old and while he still has the ability to strike with the best in business, his reflexes are no longer what they used to be. Just take a look at the Whitaker bout.

That’s where Brunson gets excited. After his back to back losses to Robert Whitaker ( by KO ) and Anderson Silva ( controversial loss ), Brunson has picked up consecutive knockout wins over Daniel Kelly and Lyoto Machida. He is one of the biggest punchers in the middleweight division with his last six wins coming via knockout. Not only does Brunson have the punching power, he also has a 77 inch reach that makes him an ever dangerous striker. Although he isn’t adept to the ground and Souza is, Brunson has never been submitted in his career.

Submissions Are Key

Submissions are the key here because it’s where Souza has made a living and it’s where Brunson has never tasted defeat. In a game between striker and grappler, it’s almost always good to beat on the latter. In this case though, Brunson doesn’t only have a five inch reach advantage on Jacare, he also has never been submitted nor has he ever been taken down in his UFC career.

Brunson has the speed  to counter every takedown that Souza tries and has the power to end this fight at any moment. Given Jacare’s age and decline in recent fights plus the fact that Brunson is fighting in his hometown, we’re picking the American Derek Brunson to win this rematch via knockout.

UFC Fight Night Melbourne: Robert Whitaker vs. Derek Brunson Odds and Pick

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With Luke Rockhold pulling out, UFC Fight Night Melbourne got a new main event. And good for the fans, one of their own will be fighting in the headliner of this November 26th event.

7th ranked Robert Whitaker faces #8 Derek Brunson in a battle of middleweight dark horses. With the likes of Rockhold, Yoel Romero and Jacare Souza getting more attention, these two fighters are probably the sleepers in Michael Bisping’s weight class. While not much attention given to them, these two have slowly built serious reputation in one of the UFC’s most talent laden division. The winner of this bout is definitely headed for bigger fights while the loser goes back to scratch.

Too Close To Call?

Derek Brunson is the favorite at -150. Robert Whitaker is pegged at +125, so this is basically a pick’em bout. Both fighters are riding high on a five-fight winning streak, but Brunson has been more impressive with four consecutive first round knockout victories.

After being known as a grinding wrestler early in his career, Derek Brunson has developed his striking skills. In fact, he’s evolved into a serious knockout artist and his current winning run is proof of that. Whitaker also possesses heavy hands, but in terms of genuine, one-punch knockout ability, it’s Brunson who has the edge.

Brunson’s Advantages

Whitaker is the busier striker with a 4.95 significant strikes landed per minute average as compared to Brunson’s 2.94. But he also absorbs more strikes per minute at 4.07 versus Brunson’s 2.24. Both are nearly as accurate with their striking with Brunson having a 44% to 40% advantage. But the key in this fight should be Brunson’s length. The American has a significant 4-inch reach advantage over his opponent.

Derek Brunson’s Division II NCAA wrestling background gives him another edge over Whitaker. He averages 3.58 takedowns landed per 15 minutes while Whitaker only lands 0.61 over the same period. Whitaker though has significantly improved his takedown defense in recent years. He’s given up only one takedown in his last five bouts. But if this fight goes to the ground, it’s definitely the more experienced Brunson who has the edge.

Whitaker vs. Brunson Prediction

What’s going for Whitaker though is the fact that this fight is in Australia. Fighting in front of his home crowd has brought out the best of Whitaker. In his UFC career, Whitaker is 4-0 in Australia and that includes his The Ultimate Fighter Smashes victory in 2012. Both fighters have significantly improved from the first time we saw them compete inside the Octagon. But at this stage of their careers, Derek Brunson is the more complete fighter. Whitaker is going to make this a good fight. But Brunson’s power is going to win this for him.