Tag Archives: Fantasy Football

2016 Fantasy Football ADP: Why You Can Wait on Tight End

Sports News & Picks, , ,

One thing has become abundantly clear in fantasy football: there is Rob Gronkowski and there is everyone else. That isn’t to say that guys like Travis Kelce, Tyler Eifert or Jordan Reed haven’t played themselves into that “elite tight end” conversation. But with Jimmy Graham being traded and later injured in Seattle last year, the throne rose up a few hundred miles.

Gronk is Still Tops

The proof was in the pudding in 2015, when The Gronk had almost 30 more fantasy points than any other tight end. Closest to him was the random Gary Barnidge, the often hurt Reed, the over-compensating Greg Olsen, Delanie Walker and the aforementioned Eifert and Kelce.

There are problems with associating these guys with Gronkowski, however. Barnidge could easily be a one-hit wonder, Reed has a sketchy injury history, Olsen needed to be huge last year with Kelvin Benjamin hurt, Eifert has been hurt more often than not and Kelce works out of a system that continues to curb his upside.

Of the entire lot, only Walker is truly “safe”, but he lacks the upside any of those guys possess.

Fluctuating Position

Of course, this is all simply in the “#1 tight end talk”. From there, the pack is far from Gronkowski, which tells us we can take a shot on Gronkowski early in drafts, but if we can’t get him (or don’t want him), there is little reason to press the issue at the position.

Tight end is better now than it has been in the past, partially because of talent, but also due to fluidity. Barnidge, Eifert, Ben Watson, Richard Rodgers and Zach Ertz all climbed the fantasy ladder, while Graham, Jason Witten, Antonio Gates and Martellus Bennett all fell.

The point? Get Gronkowski early if you want, but then choose wisely from that point on. The harsh reality is you can roster two solid tight ends and really just stream the position throughout the year, based on trends and matchups.

ADP Shows Value

The ADP data over at FantasyFootballCalculator.com shows us where the value is, too.

Gronkowski is going off of fantasy football draft boards around round two, with Jordan Reed coming off two rounds later in round four. On average, fantasy owners can expect to see the next best option going off the board in each successive round, with the likes of Kelce, Eifert, Olsen and Julius Thomas all being picked between rounds 5-7.

This is where the value comes in, as Coby Fleener is steadily rising up draft boards due to his athletic upside as the main option in New Orleans. That’s assuming his bad awareness, drops and the presence of Josh Hill don’t collectively become an issue.

In the case of Fleener, his upside is seeing him drafted in round six, ahead of more stable guys (who also possess plenty of upside) like Julius Thomas, Gary Barnidge, Delanie Walker and (gasp!) Tyler Eifert.

If that value wasn’t jaw-dropping enough, guys like Antonio Gates (#2 tight end in 2014), Zach Ertz (10th tight end in 2015), Jason Witten and Jared Cook (interesting sleeper now that he’s in Green Bay) are all also available after Fleener is typically drafted.

Overall, the value is clear at the tight end position. With so much talent and risk involved, it probably doesn’t pay to take a tight end early. Unless, of course, his name is Rob Gronkowski.

2016 Fantasy Football ADP: Best Wide Receiver Values to Target

Sports News & Picks, , , , , , , , ,

Fantasy football drafts are just around the corner, which has everyone in a frenzy to prepare for their league’s draft. That’s especially the case for PPR (points per reception) leagues, where extra emphasis is placed on the wide receiver position.

It gets even trickier when you get past the first few rounds, as the top wide receivers are quickly flying off of draft boards and league managers start wondering which options in the middle and late rounds represent the most value. We’ve looked over the latest ADP (average draft position) results at FantasyFootballCalculator.com to see which wide receivers are flying a little under the radar and could potentially return serious value:

Jordy Nelson – Packers (Round 2)

Nelson missed all of last season with a torn ACL and is battling some tendinitis in his other knee, but he’s quickly looking like a major steal in drafts. Once a top-five fantasy receiver, Nelson is still in his prime and promises to be Aaron Rodgers’ top dog in Green Bay’s passing game.

The beauty here is that many fantasy owners will pass on Nelson because of his injury risk, and that could actually equate to him falling down draft boards even further. Ideally he can slide to you in round three, but either way he’s shaping up as a massive steal if he can stay healthy and return to form.

Mike Evans – Buccaneers (Round 2)

Evans might even pack more value, as he’s currently available at the very end of round two and in some mocks can slide even further. There is a negative stigma around him, both because Tampa Bay ran a lot last year and because he dropped a ton of passes.

The Bucs promise to balance things out more, however, and it’s tough to imagine Evans scoring just three times again – especially after finding the end-zone 12 times as a rookie. Evans is a scorer and Tampa Bay’s best weapon in the passing game. He’s going to crush his price tag in drafts this year.

Demaryius Thomas – Broncos (Round 3)

Is Demaryius Thomas the first round lock he was a couple of years ago? Apparently not, as fantasy managers are allowing him to slide to round three and later. DT’s scores did come down in 2015 due to a regressing passing game, but his role and production remains. He still hauled in 105 balls for 1,304 yards and six scores.

Thomas may not be a lock for 10+ touchdowns, but he’s going to get the ball and do good things with it. He’s a flat out steal right now in round three.

Golden Tate – Lions (Round 4)

Tate is another steal one round later, and for obvious reasons. Not only do a ton of receptions have to go somewhere with Calvin Johnson retiring, but Tate has already proven his worth with 189 catches in Detroit over the past two years. He did regress a bit in the system last year, but he turned things around beautifully, scoring five times over the last six games.

Now as the team’s locked-in top receiver, Tate could vie for hos best season yet. Even if he doesn’t, Tate is still part of an offensive system that thrived down the stretch in 2015. He could return crazy value out of the fourth round.

Jeremy Maclin – Chiefs (Round 5)

Maclin is going even later than Tate, likely because most fantasy owners don’t respect the huge season he enjoyed in KC last year. Well, they should. Maclin showed how valuable his jets and role are, turning 87 catches into 1,088 yards and 8 scores.

Maclin is well past his knee injury he sustained in Philly and he’s now put up back to back stellar fantasy campaigns, despite playing for two different teams over the past two years. Alex Smith handcuffs him a bit, but Maclin has a big role and can break big plays with ease. You can’t let him get past you in round five.

Larry Fitzgerald – Cardinals (Round 6)

Fitzgerald may have to continue to prove his worth in the fantasy football community, as fantasy owners clearly don’t think he’s going to repeat his amazing 2015 run. Fitzgerald did slow down a bit late in the year, but he actually showed up big time in the playoffs and ended up turning in arguably his best fantasy run ever.

Repeating that could be tough, but Fitzgerald is clearly still a big piece of Arizona’s offensive puzzle. He’s going to be a threat for 80+ catches, 1,000 yards and 8-10 scores. That kind of value is hard to come by in round six usually.

Josh Gordon – Browns (Round 7)

Trusting Josh Gordon is impossible and we do need to consider his four-game ban. However, if the Josh Gordon of 2013 returns (87-1,646-9 line) then we have something to talk about. That’s no lock and the Browns have concerns at quarterback, but the mere possibility makes him an interesting mid-round pick.

Ideally you’re waiting to nab Gordon in round 8 or later, but if he’s there in round seven and you feel he’s worth the risk, he could be a fun gamble.

Marvin Jones – Lions (Round 8)

Jones was seemingly always held back in Cincinnati playing second fiddle to A.J. Green, yet he found a way to make an impact (14 touchdowns over the last two years). Heading into 2016, he’s set to have a big role with Megatron gone and it could end up being a huge season if all goes well.

We already know Jones is a red-zone threat, but he hasn’t had a chance to prove himself with a consistently large role. Betting on him with an 8th round pick isn’t much of a risk.

Markus Wheaton – Steelers (Round 9)

Martavis Bryant is gone for the entire 2016 season due to suspension, which means someone in Pittsburgh has to try to make up for his absence. Considering Bryant was a big play maestro, that could mean the guy who steps up opposite of Antonio Brown enjoys a career year.

Wheaton is still pretty erratic and at best unproven, but he has the speed and play-making ability to turn into a fantasy dynamo.

Vincent Jackson – Buccaneers (Round 11)

V-Jax is aging and had a rough 2015, but he’s still been a huge part of Tampa Bay’s passing game when healthy. With Jameis Winston set to take a step forward in year two, the Bucs could blow up in the passing game. Jackson could be a big part of that, even at age 33. In round 11, you’re taking chances on backups that may never amount to anything. Why not bet a small chip on V-Jax turning in a strong season before his career winds down?

Victor Cruz – Giants (Round 12)

The story could be similar for Cruz, who can be found one round later in fantasy football drafts, yet could potentially yield even more value than Jackson.

Cruz is obviously a major injury risk after missing most of the last two seasons, but he also is a former speedster who can spring big plays. With defenses dialed in on Odell Beckham Jr., we could see Cruz open a ton in 2016. Whether or not he stays healthy and keeps a big role is open for debate, but in round 12 it’s a risk worth taking.

Got some sleeper wide receiver values of your own for the 2016 fantasy football season? Tell us all about them in the comments below!

2016 Fantasy Football: Is Josh Gordon Worth the Risk?

Sports News & Picks, , , , , , ,

With the news breaking on Monday that Cleveland Browns star wide receiver Josh Gordon had been reinstated by the NFL, many wondered what it meant. How soon could Gordon rejoin the Browns, what would Cleveland’s intentions be with him, and of course, what did this news mean for Gordon’s 2016 fantasy football outlook?

Gordon’s Return

Per reports, Roger Goodell approved Gordon’s reinstatement, which allows him to practice and play in preseason games, but will suspend the star receiver for the first four games of the 2016 NFL season. Gordon will, however, be able to practice and maintain communication with the Browns throughout his suspension, while he will also be at risk of being suspended should he fail another drug test.

Cleveland’s Plans

While exciting news, it’s unclear how the Browns regard Gordon’s NFL return. The team has an entirely new regime running the show and just this past NFL Draft added four new wide receivers. The passing game has been completely remodeled, with Johnny Manziel and Brian Hartline released, Travis Benjamin now in San Diego and Robert Griffin III assuming the starting role under center.

With so many changes and Gordon’s constant poor decision-making in the past, it’s easy to see why a new regime would hesitate to trust Gordon going forward. On top of that, Gordon is set to be a restricted free agent in 2017, which puts Cleveland in an awkward spot. Not only do they have to trust Gordon this year, but they’d quickly have to decide whether he’s worth big money and a long-term investment.

2016 Fantasy Football Value

All of that is certainly interesting and needs to be figured out eventually, but it really doesn’t matter to fantasy football league managers. One way or another, provided he doesn’t fail another drug test or mess up in another way, Josh Gordon is set to return to the fantasy football realm in week five.

There are still red flags to consider, of course. Gordon could be in a weird situation with the Browns, he could mess up again, or he could be in a completely different situation if traded.

Because of all of that, Gordon is an obvious risk and you simply can’t invest a high draft pick on him. He did crush the league in 2013 with over 1,600 receiving yards, but we need to consider his surrounding talent, his current shape and how reliable he is going forward.

All of that mixed together makes Gordon certainly worth drafting, but somewhere in the middle rounds or later.

The good news is there is a steep drop off at wide receiver right around round six or seven in standard 12-man leagues, depending on who you value and how you wide receiver rankings look. Right around round six is where you’ll see guys like Larry Fitzgerald, Eric Decker and Emmanuel Sanders hear their names called. There are still interesting shots worth taking in that range (Tyler Lockett, Kevin White, etc), but an active and dialed in Gordon has to trump them.

That is about the range you’ll want to be targeting Gordon. However, the risk is real and you’ll need to gauge yourself just how much you currently trust in Gordon and how likely you think it is that he stays clean, stays out of any other trouble and also can crush it like he has in the past.

The latter is important, because even that wasn’t the case when he last played in 2014. Still, the idea here is upside, and in the sixth or seventh round, Gordon possesses it in spades. He’s worth the gamble there and just might be one of the top steals in fantasy football drafts when it’s all said and done.