Tag Archives: MLB Betting

Dodgers Strengthen World Series Odds By Re-Signing Rich Hill

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The Los Angeles Dodgers were favored by many to make a deep playoff run in 2016. That’s been the case for the past several seasons, too, as the Dodgers boast one of the top pitchers in the game in Clayton Kershaw.

An ongoing issue had been that Kershaw couldn’t do everything himself, however, and that once the MLB playoffs rolled around, if he couldn’t elevate the Dodgers, they wouldn’t be going very far.

That still wound up being the case ultimately in this past season’s playoff run, but along the way the Dodgers at least found a strong complementary arm to aid Kershaw. That would be none other than ageless wonder, Rich Hill.

The 36-year old Hill continued a career revitalization last season, as he went 12-5 as a starter, while notching 129 strikeouts. Despite lingering injury issues, Hill stepped his game up during the post-season, helping the team get a huge 4-3 win over the Washington Nationals, and again dealing a game in a 6-0 win over the eventual World Series champion Chicago Cubs.

Needless to say, the veteran left-hander earned his keep with the Dodgers and deserved a new contract. Per reports, the Dodgers obliged, signing Hill to a three-year, $48 million deal:

Big Deal

The deal itself isn’t over the top, even though Hill is pushing 37 and for the most part has only been a reliable pitcher over the last few seasons. Instead, it’s a huge deal from an impact perspective, as Hill more than proved his worth during the playoffs and also ended up being a solid trade acquisition, going 3-2 as a starter with the Dodgers in just six regular season appeances.

Hill’s story is an odd one, as he started his career as a solid prospect with the Chicago Cubs (where he notched a previous career high 11 wins), but tailed off and was largely a forgotten man until resurfacing as a strikeout king with the Boston Red Sox in 2015. Hill only took to the mound four times as a starter with Boston in 2015, but recorded 36 strikeouts and reminded Major League Baseball of the value he can still provide.

The wheels could always come off at anytime, as Hill is 36 and has battled injuries the past few years, but on paper this is a fantastic re-signing for a Dodgers team with serious title aspirations.

Killer Depth

When people think Dodgers baseball, the first person they think of is still Clayton Kershaw. As money as their top ace has been, however, he hasn’t been able to get the job done all on his own and Los Angeles has taken action over the last couple of seasons to get him the backup he needs. That means more lively arms that can rotate in without skipping a beat, and also nail down crucial games during the playoffs.

Hill did that twice just last season, while his regular season numbers were as good as ever.

That puts Rich Hill on paper as a terrific signing and blends him in a deep pitching rotation that already included Kenta Maeda, Scott Kazmir and the young riser, Julio Urias. The Dodgers have even more depth, but had they lost Hill, they would have been taking a big step back. Hill has his health concerns and his age could eventually be a factor in his performance, but this was a signing that had to be made. On paper, the Dodgers are better for it.

World Series Odds

It’s tough to say for sure if re-signing Rich Hill makes the Dodgers even bigger World Series threats, but it surely can’t hurt their chances. Hill was a crucial piece to the defensive puzzle last year for Los Angeles, showing he can come up big as either a starter or a member of the bullpen. That’s massive for this team, which has a deep stable of top shelf pitchers now and can add strong versatility to their strengths.

The Dodgers undoubtedly need to make a move or two to shore up an often erratic offense, but the move to keep Hill steadies the ship on the defensive side of things. On paper, that helps keep their current World Series odds intact, which per Bovada, place them third (+1000) behind only the Chicago Cubs (+350) and Boston Red Sox (+1000).

The Dodgers know they’re close to making a big move. It nearly happened this past season, as the Dodgers started their NL Champinship series sow (down 3-0), but stormed back with two straight wins to make it a series. L.A. inevitably lose that series, but inched closer to a title run. By bringing back a key piece to last year’s playoff run, they should once again be as strong as ever.

2016 World Series Odds: Cubs vs. Indians Preview and Prediction

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The 2016 World Series kicks off on Tuesday night, when the Chicago Cubs and Cleveland Indians get things going in game one at Progressive Field.

Cubs vs. Indians

It’s an emotional title series, as the Cubs make history by returning to MLB’s biggest stage for the first time since 1945. Chicago ends a remarkably long World Series drought, while they’ll have their first chance to actually win the entire thing for the first time since 1908.

Things could be emotional for the Indians, too, as Cleveland is fresh off of seeing the Cavaliers win their first NBA Finals championship in team history and will see The Tribe back on Major League Baseball’s biggest stage for the first time since 1997.

The Indians failed to capitalize on that World Series showdown with the then Florida Marlins, as they fell in one of the tightest title series ever, 4-3. The Tribe will be gunning for a win, though, which would be their first since winning in 1948.

World Series Betting

Suffice to say, this is a pretty historical and emotional World Series we’re gearing up for. The odds have favored the Cubs all year, as betting sites like Bovada gave them the best chance to win from the very beginning. Cleveland ended up being a solid favorite to make a deep playoff run as the year went on, but had you tossed some cash on them to win it all before the season even started, you could stand to win some money.

For the entire thing, here’s how the 2016 World Series odds are looking over at Bovada:

  • Cubs to Win -190
  • Indians to Win +170

You’re not coming away a massive winner, no matter who you bet on, but if you’re looking for a bigger payday, going with the underdog Indians to stage the World Series upset is the more profitable angle.

There is a lot more to consider for this series, like how the series itself could specifically unfold. It’s a tough series to gauge, too, considering we did not see these teams face in 2016. They played each other just four times in 2015, too, with these squads splitting those meetings right down the middle, 2-2.

If you want to bet the series, here are your betting options, per Bovada:

  • Cubs win, 4-0 +650
  • Cubs, 4-1 +350
  • Cubs, 4-2 +350
  • Cubs, 4-3 +400
  • Indians win, +2500
  • Indians, 4-1 +1100
  • Indians, 4-2 +650
  • Indians, 4-3 +550

You could make an argument anywhere here, but the best bet might be shooting for an Indians sweep. That does you much better than any other bet, as a $100 bet could get you back a cool $2,500.

Another interesting 2016 World Series bet could be the World Series MVP odds. Andrew Miller just was named MVP of Cleveland’s last series, so he naturally leads the way (+900). There are a ton of star hitters and pitchers that could vie for the World Series MVP, of course, depending on how things shake out.

In terms of talent and upside, here are a few fun World Series MVP sleeper picks:

  • Jose Ramirez – Indians (+5500)
  • Jason Heyward – Cubs (+5000)
  • Tyler Naquin – Indians (+4000

If you’re looking for a more favorable World Series MVP play that also could provide fun odds, consider these guys:

  • Corey Kluber – Indians (+1500)
  • Jake Arrieta – Cubs (+1200)
  • Jason Kipnis – Indians (+2000)

Game One Breakdown

Both of these teams come in hot, as Cleveland took care of high-powered Toronto Blue Jays offense last round with a 4-1 series win and Chicago ousted the Dodgers 4-2 by taking the last three games of the series.

It figures to be a true battle of the aces to get the 2016 World Series started, with Jon Lester looking to take the mound for the Cubs, who visit Corey Kluber and the Indians. Both of these pitchers have been great in the playoffs and churned out elite numbers across stellar 2016 MLB campaigns. It’s going to be tough sledding for two very potent offenses in this first game, and quite possibly much of the series.

The pitching advantage is moot here, as it’s a total wash and the Indians may get the mildest of edges due to starting the World Series at home.

These are two of the best offenses in baseball, but power might not be on fully display in this series. If that’s the case, pitcher duels may favor the Indians, start right away at home in game one.

World Series: Game 1 Pick

While the Indians do seem to have a mild edge to get this thing started, this first game (and really the entire World Series) feels like a toss-up. If we’re leaning on that, the narrative favors the Cubs, who have waited for 70 years just to get back here, and haven’t even won a World Series in 100+.

It’s time for the Cubs to rewrite history and we’ve got a feeling they get things started off the right way in game one, setting the tone for the rest of the series.

Game One Pick: Cubs 2, Indians 1

MLB Playoff Picks: Giants and Dodgers Look to Stave Off Elimination

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The wild 2016 MLB playoffs continue on Tuesday night, with two games on the schedule. The Washington Nationals prepare for their second go around in Los Angeles, after rocking the Dodgers en route to a 2-1 series lead. The San Francisco Giants, meanwhile, used some late heroics to prevent a 3-0 sweep by the hands of the Chicago Cubs.

Both the Nats and Cubs can seal the deal tonight with a win, giving us a potentially epic showdown between the two teams. The Giants and Dodgers will look to represent the NL West in the best way possible, however, and if they can nab wins we’ll get two intense 2-2 series with one rubber match to come.

Let’s take a look at tonight’s MLB playoff matchups and see which way you should lean when it comes to MLB betting:

Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers

Washington poured it on thick last night, mowing down the Dodgers with an emphatic 8-3 win. That was concerning because they went nuts at Dodger Stadium, but also because they did so against one of the Dodger’s best pitchers. It could be much the same on Tuesday night, when L.A. will either start Clayton Kershaw on short rest or ask rookie Julio Urias to keep the team’s season alive in a high pressure situation.

This would not be an awful spot for Urias, as he showed good stuff during his first MLB season and finished the year 3-0 at home. He didn’t give up a single homer at Dodger Stadium in 2016, while posting a respectable 3.05 ERA and giving up just 13 runs in nine total appearances. His efforts against this Nationals squad were mixed, of course, as he didn’t win or lose in two starts, lasting nine innings with three runs allowed. The Dodgers as a whole have an edge here, too, as they were one of the best teams in the league at home (53 wins).

We’re still not sure what to expect on the other side, as veteran arm Joe Ross could get the start, or some speculate the Nats could turn to rookie, Reynaldo Lopez. Either arm could be problematic, as Ross looked strong in his last appearance and fared well against the Dodgers in one meeting this season. Lopez is a little more volatile, as he’s just 2-2 on the road this year and gave up 10 hits in a no decision against the Dodgers earlier in 2016.

On paper, for the second night in a row, the mild bump goes to the Dodgers. They’re at home, they can force a  massive game five and they’d likely have ace Clayton Kershaw to decide their fate for them. Urias doesn’t need to be elite or go deep here, either. He just needs to get by, while getting a little help from a Dodgers offense that has yet to really come to life in these playoffs.

Due to the lack of knowledge with the pitchers in this one, the betting odds aren’t known just yet. That probably makes this a pick’em, and with weak odds all around, we’ll side with the home team to keep this series alive.

Pick: Dodgers 5, Nats 4

Chicago Cubs @ San Francisco Giants

  • Cubs to Win -128
  • Giants to Win +118

The second game of the night could be a little more intense, especially if last night’s crazy extra-inning win by the Giants is any indication.

There’s little denying the Cubs are the superior team, but the Giants have twice now shown up big with their season on the line. Can they keep the hope alive at home tonight long enough to make it to a decisive game five?

Maybe. The good news is they’re not facing Arrieta or Lester here, as instead they get a beatable John Lackey. Lackey certainly is not a pushover (11-8 on the year, 3.35 ERA) but he tends to struggle a bit more on the road (just 4-4). He did work the Giants in his lone meeting with them in 2016, but a road game with the Giants playing for their season is not going to be an envious position for him. San Francisco also doesn’t strikeout a lot, so if they can get some balls in play early, Lackey could tire out and set this one up for another crazy finish.

Of course, that will likely require Matt Moore to keep it together first. That’s a tall order given Chicago’s stacked offense, but it’s worth noting Moore has been strong at home (4-2) and has been amazing in his last two trips to the mound (2-0 with 17 total Ks). If Moore is that same top shelf pitcher we’ve seen lately, he should be able to keep the Giants in this and allow for more heroics late.

Chicago enters as the favorite on the road, but I’m not willing to give up on the Giants just yet. They seem to be living off of miracles right now and they still have everything a title contender needs. If Moore can hold serve and their offense chips in enough late, they can force a game five.

Pick: Giants 3, Cubs 2

MLB Wildcard Betting: Analysis and Predictions For Friday’s Games

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The 2016 MLB playoffs have already been quite a sight to see, with two insane wild card games coming down to the bitter last moment and the first games of the second round starting off with some powerful offense. We might not necessarily be able to bank on more of the same when four new MLB playoff games hit the schedule on Friday, as all of the aces come out to potentially limit the fireworks.

There is a lot to consider when it comes to MLB betting in these four playoff games, so let’s take a quick look at each matchup and odds and see which way you should be leaning:

Blue Jays (+120) @ Rangers (-130)

It’s quite possible the hot run Toronto is on comes to a brief end, as tonight they’ll take their potent offense up against Yu Darvish. They displayed heroics in their wild card game and then busted the big guns out in game one of this series by demolishing Cole Hamels. It might end differently in this one, however, as Darvish is better at keeping the ball in the park and it’s just tough to see Toronto come in on the road and go nuts in two straight games to start this series.

On the other side, Texas absolutely has the better matchup in this game, as their equally potent offense gets the more beatable J.A. Happ. Texas didn’t even show up on offense in game one, so it’s a safe bet the Rangers will come out to play with their backs against the wall here in a 0-1 hole.

Look for Darvish to spin a gem and the Rangers to do just enough to tie this series up.

Pick: Rangers 4, Blue Jays 2

Red Sox (-110) @ Indians (EVEN)

Boston and Cleveland engaged in a home run derby last night, with the two exhanging blows until the Indians survived late, 5-4. Cleveland stole a game they probably shouldn’t have won with Trevor Bauer doing just enough to out-duel Rick Porcello. That could be a tough start to overcome for Boston, who now needs to get a win with Cleveland ace Corey Kluber hitting the mound.

This is not a good matchup for the Red Sox, but luckily they have an elite arm on their side as well, with David Price toeing the rubber tonight.

That should draw this even, and with both offenses having plenty of pop, it stands to reason the Sox can do just enough to tie this thing up at one game a piece. That could make for a low-scoring game despite two elite offenses hitting the diamond tonight, while the odds here don’t offer much upside, regardless of who you like.

Pick: Red Sox 4, Indians 2

Dodgers (-142) @ Nationals (+132)

This is without a doubt the game to check out today, as Clayton Kershaw and Max Scherzer give us an epic pitcher battle. Scherzer gets the benefit of being at home, backed by the superior offense, while Kershaw needs to exorcise some serious demons (2-6 in playoffs in career) to get the Dodgers going in the right direction.

Kershaw was amazing all year (just 11 walks!) and can K any lineup into oblivion, but there could be too much working against him here. Not only is Washington’s lineup high powered and stacked, but he’s also on the road and going up against an arm that truly is just about as good. We certainly hope Kershaw can finally deliver a huge playoff performance, but fear it will probably be in vain. Washington is oddly the underdog here at home despite logic supporting them greatly. With these odds, they’re a fun bet.

Pick: Nationals 3, Dodgers 2

Giants (+160) @ Cubs (-175)

Last, but not least, we have everyone’s favorite pick to run the table (Cubs) welcoming the Giants to Wrigley Field. San Francisco comes prepared, as ace Johnny Cueto looks to get them started off on the right foot after winning an intense wild card game against the New York Mets.

Cueto will have his work cut out for him, as he gets to face the best offense in baseball (on the road, mind you) and Jon Lester isn’t a fun arm to duel with, either. Lester and Chicago’s offense are probably too much of a winning combination to get around here, and you can see why the Cubs are strong favorites to get this series started.

While Chicago probably wins tonight, San Francisco has some of the worst MLB playoff odds for this slate, which makes them quite playable. Keep in mind the Giants could be riding high from their emotional wild card win, while they’ve also gone on World Series runs every other year since 2010. That could make 2016 another title season and if so, it just might get started off with a bang tonight. We do still prefer the Cubs here, but it’s only wise to consider all narratives.

Pick: Cubs 6, Giants 3

That does it for today’s look at the MLB playoff betting slate. This isn’t a spot to go super hard with your bets, but putting a little cash down on your favorite plays does make the whole day a lot more fun. Regardless of how you bet today, good luck!

2016 MLB Betting: 4 Upsets Worth Chasing

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Tuesday night could be a great spot for some MLB betting, seeing as we have a lively 15-game MLB slate and some big name aces toeing the rubber. Anytime you see aces like Chris Sale and Max Scherzer hit the mound, betting sites tend to favor their team even more than usual – often regardless of matchup.

Does the presence of those aces make their opponents mildly more interesting upset bids tonight, or should we be looking elsewhere? That and more needs to be considered on such a big slate – one in which you want to pick your spots carefully.

With that, we’ve scoured today’s MLB slate and found four upset picks that either offer the most upside or actually feel pretty realistic. Let’s find out why:

Yankees (+180) Over Red Sox (-200)

New York always feels like a decent bet when they take on Boston, seeing as it’s a fierce rivalry game that goes back for forever. It’s only under the microscope even more right now, as the Yankees basically need to win out to have a remote chance at locking up a wild card playoff spot.

That’s not happening, but this young, talented Yankees team will surely be out to steal a massive win against a hated rival to close out the year. It helps some that the game is at Yankee Stadium. Boston still feels like the safe pick, but the history here gives the Yanks a chance.

Indians (+185) Over Tigers (-210)

This might be one to really consider, seeing as the Tigers are slipping out of the MLB playoff picture and are currently riding a three-game skid. Cleveland, meanwhile, has the AL Central division locked up and comes into tonight red hot with a 7-3 mark over their last 10 games.

There is no denying the talented Justin Verlander at home in this one, but let’s keep in mind that the Tigers are likely pretty deflated, while Verlander specifically is 0-3 with 17 earned runs (7 homers) given up to these Indians in 2016. If these was a spot to bet big against Verlander and the Tigers, this would be it.

Reds (+200) Over Cardinals (-230)

The MLB odds are even more interesting in another divisional clash, this one being between the Reds and Cardinals of the NL Central. St. Louis is still alive in the NL wild card chase, but they’re slipping (lost two straight, just 5-5 over last 10) and have the erratic Adam Wainwright on the mound tonight.

Cincinnati is really just hoping to play spoiler in this one, but we can’t deny their recent form (won three straight), nor their interest in taking down a hated rival. The Reds have an inconsistent offense and this is a pitcher’s park that could mess with them, but playing spoiler shouldn’t be overrated. If you don’t buy the Cardinals to make the playoffs, a bad home loss to the Reds could easily wind up being a big reason why.

Diamondbacks (+240) Over Nationals (-280)

The best MLB upset pick of the night is by far Arizona over Washington. Max Scherzer toes the rubber for the Nats and he’s been amazing over the past month, notching a win or a no decision in eight straight contests.

Arizona is pretty awful overall, but they bring some serious pop with their bats and are oddly better on the road than they are at home. With the Nats already in the 2016 MLB playoffs, it wouldn’t be crazy to see them stumble a bit to close out the regular season. They already kind of are, as they’re just 4-6 over their last 10 games and actually just got demolished by these very Diamondbacks on Monday night (14-4).

The D’backs don’t need to wreck Scherzer to pay off. They just need to keep him off his game enough to squeak out the upset win. It’d be more of a reach if there wasn’t so much logic supporting it. To top it off, it’s a pretty big payout for a small gamble.

Love/hate our MLB upset picks for Tuesday night? Tell us your favorite picks in the comments below!

2016 MLB Betting: 4 Upsets to Chase For Friday Night

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Fewer things are more exciting than Friday night baseball, and we get a full slate of MLB goodness with 15 games schedule for tonight.

While that means some fun in daily fantasy baseball leagues and good television watching, it could also make for some interesting MLB betting. Aside from your usual bets, this massive slate is going to tempt you to make some underdog picks, as well.

We’re here to point out the sleeper picks that may be worth targeting over the others. Here are our four favorite MLB upset picks for tonight, along with the betting odds:

Phillies Over Cardinals

The Cardinals open this one up as the favorite (-173), seeing as they’re the much better team on the year and have one of the best offenses in all of baseball. That roster going up against the very beatable Adam Morgan looks like a win on paper, which is why Vegas is so adamant that they’re the lock.

Perhaps it isn’t to be, however. There are two big things working against the Cards here. They’re on the road, for one, where the Phillies tend to be at their best in 2016.

They’re also shoving Adam Wainwright to the dogs yet again, and he’s been absolutely atrocious lately, giving up 19 earned runs on 31 hits over his last five outings. He’s 0-2 during that span and with Philadelphia’s better than advertised power, he could be in for another tough outing. Should the St. Louis bats not come to play, this one could tilt in the Phillies’ (+158) favor.

Marlins Over Pirates

Need a little more upside with your MLB underdog bet? Okay, how about the Marlins (+170) heading into Pittsburgh to try to take down the Pirates (-190)?

It doesn’t sound very logical at first glance, as these two teams are headed in opposite directions: Pirates are 7-3 in last 10 games and Marlins are 3-7 during same span. Miami also recently lost serious power with masher Giancarlo Stanton being lost for the year, so there is no denying their offense may be lacking their usual bite.

Of course, Miami still has a potential playoff spot to fight for, is surprisingly decent (31-31) on the road and could have the perfect matchup against a shaky Gerrit Cole. Once a franchise cornerstone, Cole has really been up and down throughout 2016, and he’s been especially sloppy lately. He’s just 1-2 in his last three starts and was horrific in his most recent trip to the mound, getting knocked around by the Dodgers to the tune of 12 hits and five earned runs.

Cole needs to be much better tonight at home, where he’s oddly been below average (2-4) on the season. It could be a great opportunity for the Marlins to start to get their groove back, and it could also be a fun spot for you to pile up some cash.

Rockies Over Cubs

Anytime good offenses stroll into Coors Field, we’re looking at a toss-up. The Cubs (-144) come in red hot after a mash-job over the Brewers last night, and there is little reason to think they’ll fall flat in a hitter’s park.

Of course, there are some things to consider here. Tyler Anderson certainly isn’t an elite arm, but he’s weirdly been really solid at home (4-1 with a respectable 3.04 ERA in eight starts). He’ll also be opposing a usually solid Kyle Hendricks that has been very average on the road and allowed three runs on eight hits the last time he faced these very Rockies (+134).

Colorado tends to elevate their play at home and Charlie Blackmon leads the way in the midst of one of the hottest hitting runs we’ve seen in some time. Chicago is understandably the favorite, but this park could give way to a ton of runs and it’s not like the Rockies are going up against Jake Arrieta here. They’re a fun underdog to roll with tonight.

Mets Over Giants

Johnny Cueto takes the mound for the Giants at home tonight, which guarantees the Giants get their 68th win of the year, right? Not so fast. The Giants have not really been themselves lately (4-6 over last 10 games) and have an interesting matchup with rookie Seth Lugo.

This marks Lugo’s first career start and puts both him and the Giants in uncharted territory. Logic does not suggest Lugo wins a duel with Cueto, but crazier things have happened and not knowing a pitcher is often just as bad as facing an elite one you do know. Even if Lugo doesn’t churn out a good game here, there is also the mysterious case of Cueto, who has not been elite lately.

Cueto has actually been bombing, as he’s failed to notch a win in any of his last six starts and has given up 19 runs during that span. Cueto has usually done enough to at least avoid a loss (0-2 during that six-game stretch), but he clearly isn’t in top form. If he doesn’t bring his A game tonight and Lugo merely hangs around, the Giants could be Friday’s upset special.

Love/hate our MLB upset picks? Got some of your own for Friday’s slate? Tell us all about it in the comments below!

2016 MLB Betting: 3 Underdogs to Consider on Monday Night

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Regular MLB slates are back for the start of the new week on Monday night, following a hectic All-Star break and crazy weekend scheduling.

With a little more continuity to look forward to, MLB bettors can sit back and relax as they prepare for MLB betting on Monday. In addition to regular betting, of course, MLB bettors should be looking for some solid upsets to chase. You may have won big if you rolled with some of our proposed upsets last time out – specifically with the Braves shelling Chris Sale.

That was admittedly tough to see coming, but the odds potential was obvious and we liked the potential. Let’s see which other upsets appear to be worth the risk to get the new week started:

Royals Over Indians

There really are not a ton of upset specials to chase tonight, but the Royals over the Indians is good enough to get the conversation going.

These two teams are obviously division rivals, and with the Royals sitting eight games out of first place behind Cleveland, this is a huge series. The good news is they’re at home, where they’re a staggering 29-13 so far in 2016. The Indians do have the elite Corey Kluber on the mound tonight, but he’s not quite as reliable away from home, while the Tribe as a whole does see their play drop off when they play on the road.

None of that guarantees a Royals win, especially with the volatile Edinson Volquez taking the mound. Still, Volquez is at his best in Kansas City and the Royals bats usually come out to play in front of their home crowd. There is nothing locking that in for tonight, but the Royals have an interesting +140 Moneyline compared to Cleveland’s -155. We’ll give the home team a shot at the mild upset in a big game.

Mets Over Cubs

Things get a little more interesting in our second MLB upset bid, with the Mets coming into Chicago. We’ve got an elite pitcher duel between Steven Matz and Jon Lester, both of which have the ability to control a game and even deliver a shutout.

That probably isn’t happening tonight, but there is a bet growing against Lester, seeing as he was absolutely atrocious in his two starts before the MLB All-Star break. It’s possible he just needed some rest and he returns to top form tonight, but it doesn’t help that one of those games was a shelling handed to him by – you guessed it – the Mets.

Chicago (-150) is a tough upset sell considering they’re elite at home (28-15), but the play here is buying their mild slump (4-6 in last 10 games) and Lester’s poor play continuing. If you believe either to hold firm, the Mets (+135) look like a solid try tonight.

Phillies Over Marlins

The top MLB bet for Monday night is without a doubt the Phillies (+185) over the Marlins (-200). It’s a little odd that Miami is such a heavy favorite here, especially considering Aaron Nola has the ability to control games and this one is in Philly, where the Phillies tend to play their best ball.

There is the obvious factor of elite arm Jose Fernandez taking the mound for the visiting Marlins. Fernandez has been largely unstoppable in 2016, marching to a top shelf 11-4 run with a solid 2.52 ERA and a whopping 154 strikeouts.

All of that is awesome, but it’s worth noting that Fernandez’s play drops considerably away from home, where Miami as a whole is just average (25-23) in 2016.

None of this means Fernandez won’t wreck or Miami can’t get the win, but it’s a wide margin for a merely decent Marlins team against a divisional foe on the road. Miami is the safer pick here, but Nola is no slouch necessarily and there is merit in picking the Marlins to defend their turf in this one.

Got a better MLB upset pick for Monday night? Tell us all about it in the comments below!