Tag Archives: MLB Upset Picks

2016 MLB Betting: 4 Upsets Worth Chasing

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Tuesday night could be a great spot for some MLB betting, seeing as we have a lively 15-game MLB slate and some big name aces toeing the rubber. Anytime you see aces like Chris Sale and Max Scherzer hit the mound, betting sites tend to favor their team even more than usual – often regardless of matchup.

Does the presence of those aces make their opponents mildly more interesting upset bids tonight, or should we be looking elsewhere? That and more needs to be considered on such a big slate – one in which you want to pick your spots carefully.

With that, we’ve scoured today’s MLB slate and found four upset picks that either offer the most upside or actually feel pretty realistic. Let’s find out why:

Yankees (+180) Over Red Sox (-200)

New York always feels like a decent bet when they take on Boston, seeing as it’s a fierce rivalry game that goes back for forever. It’s only under the microscope even more right now, as the Yankees basically need to win out to have a remote chance at locking up a wild card playoff spot.

That’s not happening, but this young, talented Yankees team will surely be out to steal a massive win against a hated rival to close out the year. It helps some that the game is at Yankee Stadium. Boston still feels like the safe pick, but the history here gives the Yanks a chance.

Indians (+185) Over Tigers (-210)

This might be one to really consider, seeing as the Tigers are slipping out of the MLB playoff picture and are currently riding a three-game skid. Cleveland, meanwhile, has the AL Central division locked up and comes into tonight red hot with a 7-3 mark over their last 10 games.

There is no denying the talented Justin Verlander at home in this one, but let’s keep in mind that the Tigers are likely pretty deflated, while Verlander specifically is 0-3 with 17 earned runs (7 homers) given up to these Indians in 2016. If these was a spot to bet big against Verlander and the Tigers, this would be it.

Reds (+200) Over Cardinals (-230)

The MLB odds are even more interesting in another divisional clash, this one being between the Reds and Cardinals of the NL Central. St. Louis is still alive in the NL wild card chase, but they’re slipping (lost two straight, just 5-5 over last 10) and have the erratic Adam Wainwright on the mound tonight.

Cincinnati is really just hoping to play spoiler in this one, but we can’t deny their recent form (won three straight), nor their interest in taking down a hated rival. The Reds have an inconsistent offense and this is a pitcher’s park that could mess with them, but playing spoiler shouldn’t be overrated. If you don’t buy the Cardinals to make the playoffs, a bad home loss to the Reds could easily wind up being a big reason why.

Diamondbacks (+240) Over Nationals (-280)

The best MLB upset pick of the night is by far Arizona over Washington. Max Scherzer toes the rubber for the Nats and he’s been amazing over the past month, notching a win or a no decision in eight straight contests.

Arizona is pretty awful overall, but they bring some serious pop with their bats and are oddly better on the road than they are at home. With the Nats already in the 2016 MLB playoffs, it wouldn’t be crazy to see them stumble a bit to close out the regular season. They already kind of are, as they’re just 4-6 over their last 10 games and actually just got demolished by these very Diamondbacks on Monday night (14-4).

The D’backs don’t need to wreck Scherzer to pay off. They just need to keep him off his game enough to squeak out the upset win. It’d be more of a reach if there wasn’t so much logic supporting it. To top it off, it’s a pretty big payout for a small gamble.

Love/hate our MLB upset picks for Tuesday night? Tell us your favorite picks in the comments below!

2016 MLB Betting: 4 Upsets to Chase For Friday Night

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Fewer things are more exciting than Friday night baseball, and we get a full slate of MLB goodness with 15 games schedule for tonight.

While that means some fun in daily fantasy baseball leagues and good television watching, it could also make for some interesting MLB betting. Aside from your usual bets, this massive slate is going to tempt you to make some underdog picks, as well.

We’re here to point out the sleeper picks that may be worth targeting over the others. Here are our four favorite MLB upset picks for tonight, along with the betting odds:

Phillies Over Cardinals

The Cardinals open this one up as the favorite (-173), seeing as they’re the much better team on the year and have one of the best offenses in all of baseball. That roster going up against the very beatable Adam Morgan looks like a win on paper, which is why Vegas is so adamant that they’re the lock.

Perhaps it isn’t to be, however. There are two big things working against the Cards here. They’re on the road, for one, where the Phillies tend to be at their best in 2016.

They’re also shoving Adam Wainwright to the dogs yet again, and he’s been absolutely atrocious lately, giving up 19 earned runs on 31 hits over his last five outings. He’s 0-2 during that span and with Philadelphia’s better than advertised power, he could be in for another tough outing. Should the St. Louis bats not come to play, this one could tilt in the Phillies’ (+158) favor.

Marlins Over Pirates

Need a little more upside with your MLB underdog bet? Okay, how about the Marlins (+170) heading into Pittsburgh to try to take down the Pirates (-190)?

It doesn’t sound very logical at first glance, as these two teams are headed in opposite directions: Pirates are 7-3 in last 10 games and Marlins are 3-7 during same span. Miami also recently lost serious power with masher Giancarlo Stanton being lost for the year, so there is no denying their offense may be lacking their usual bite.

Of course, Miami still has a potential playoff spot to fight for, is surprisingly decent (31-31) on the road and could have the perfect matchup against a shaky Gerrit Cole. Once a franchise cornerstone, Cole has really been up and down throughout 2016, and he’s been especially sloppy lately. He’s just 1-2 in his last three starts and was horrific in his most recent trip to the mound, getting knocked around by the Dodgers to the tune of 12 hits and five earned runs.

Cole needs to be much better tonight at home, where he’s oddly been below average (2-4) on the season. It could be a great opportunity for the Marlins to start to get their groove back, and it could also be a fun spot for you to pile up some cash.

Rockies Over Cubs

Anytime good offenses stroll into Coors Field, we’re looking at a toss-up. The Cubs (-144) come in red hot after a mash-job over the Brewers last night, and there is little reason to think they’ll fall flat in a hitter’s park.

Of course, there are some things to consider here. Tyler Anderson certainly isn’t an elite arm, but he’s weirdly been really solid at home (4-1 with a respectable 3.04 ERA in eight starts). He’ll also be opposing a usually solid Kyle Hendricks that has been very average on the road and allowed three runs on eight hits the last time he faced these very Rockies (+134).

Colorado tends to elevate their play at home and Charlie Blackmon leads the way in the midst of one of the hottest hitting runs we’ve seen in some time. Chicago is understandably the favorite, but this park could give way to a ton of runs and it’s not like the Rockies are going up against Jake Arrieta here. They’re a fun underdog to roll with tonight.

Mets Over Giants

Johnny Cueto takes the mound for the Giants at home tonight, which guarantees the Giants get their 68th win of the year, right? Not so fast. The Giants have not really been themselves lately (4-6 over last 10 games) and have an interesting matchup with rookie Seth Lugo.

This marks Lugo’s first career start and puts both him and the Giants in uncharted territory. Logic does not suggest Lugo wins a duel with Cueto, but crazier things have happened and not knowing a pitcher is often just as bad as facing an elite one you do know. Even if Lugo doesn’t churn out a good game here, there is also the mysterious case of Cueto, who has not been elite lately.

Cueto has actually been bombing, as he’s failed to notch a win in any of his last six starts and has given up 19 runs during that span. Cueto has usually done enough to at least avoid a loss (0-2 during that six-game stretch), but he clearly isn’t in top form. If he doesn’t bring his A game tonight and Lugo merely hangs around, the Giants could be Friday’s upset special.

Love/hate our MLB upset picks? Got some of your own for Friday’s slate? Tell us all about it in the comments below!