Tag Archives: MMA Betting

UFC 220 Odds and Prediction: Daniel Cormier vs. Volkan Oezdemir

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Daniel Cormier will defend the UFC light heavyweight title against Volkan Oezdemir on January 20th, 2018 at UFC 220 in Boston’s TD Garden.

Cormier was recently reinstated as the UFC’s 205-pound king after Jon Jones failed yet another drug test. Prior to that, Jones stopped Cormier cold during their rematch at UFC to reclaim the UFC light heavyweight crown. The loss was Cormier’s second to Jones and only the second loss of his MMA career.

Volkan Oezdemir is one of the fastest rising fighters in the UFC. A winner of three straight bouts, Oezdemir is coming off a victory over the highly touted Jimi Manuwa in July. Prior to that, Oezdemir scored a first round KO of Misha Cirkunov and came away with a split decision win over Ovince St. Preux.  

Untested Ground Game

DC is the favorite here at -300 while Oezdemir came back at +240.

Oezdemir has that one punch knockout power in him so he always has a shot to win any fight. But against Cormier, he’ll be fighting an opponent who has seen it all inside that Octagon. Cormier is one of the sport’s best grapplers owing to his collegiate and Olympic wrestling background. Against a powerful striker like Oezdemir, you bet he’s going to take this fight to the ground.

Oezdemir has real knockout power and is primarily a striker because of his kickboxing background. On his feet, he averages 6.12 significant strikes per minute landed but in three UFC fights, he has zero takedowns landed.

This is going to be his problem against Cormier who is a supreme wrestler. DC averages just 1.81 takedowns per 15 minutes but he doesn’t need to many of them. Once he gets his opponent to the ground, it’s going to be a grind.

DC is Too Smart

There is no denying that Volkan Oezdemir has the power to knock out anybody. While Cormier has a granite chin, we saw him get knocked out by Jon Jones due to voluminous strikes. Oezdemir is well capable of doing the same, that is if he withstands Cormier’s ground attack early in the fight.

We’ve seen this in many of DC’s older fights. He takes his opponents down early and punishes them on the ground. In the later rounds, his opponents get weary and Cormier begins to take over. Looks like this will be how this fight unfolds.

DC is too smart to stand and trade with Oezdemir. He’s going to take away his punching power by forcing him to the ground early. Once Oezdemir’s pop is gone, DC’s going to take care of this fight.

We’re picking Daniel Cormier to win this bout by decision.

UFC 219: Cris Cyborg vs. Holly Holm Odds and Prediction

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Cris Cyborg will defend the UFC women’s featherweight belt against Holly Holm at UFC 219 on December 30th, 2017 in Las Vegas, Nevada, USA.

The bout has been declared as the main event for UFC 219, ending speculation that Irish superstar Conor McGregor is going to make an appearance at the UFC’s final event of the year.

Odds Favor Cyborg

Cyborg won the featherweight belt after easily outclassing Tonya Evinger at UFC 214. The two fought for the vacant title after Germaine De Randamie forfeited the crown after beating Holly Holm at UFC 208. Holm, meanwhile, rebounded from the loss and defeated Bethe Correia in her next fight.

Cyborg is the favorite here at -334 while Holm is the underdog at +250. The line may look surprising to some especially those who say that Holm is moving up in weight to face a bigger Cyborg. But then Holm has fought before at higher weights. She fought as junior welterweight and welterweight as a boxer and kickboxer.

Two Elite Strikers

In MMA, Holly Holm fought as a bantamweight but she moved up to featherweight to face Germaine De Randamie at UFC 208 for the inaugural UFC women’s featherweight title. Holm lost that bout but controversially so, because she was on the receiving end of punches after the bell at the end of rounds two and three.

Cyborg vs. Holm is a battle between two elite strikers and when you have two powerful ladies like these squaring off against each other, all it takes is one strike to win the fight. Holm is the more disciplined fighter between the two and is slightly longer in reach. She has never been knocked out in her MMA career, but she also has never faced a monster like Cris Cyborg before.

On Another Level

Cyborg puts on a relentless pace and won’t stop until she sees her opponent down and out.

We saw some of her striking weaknesses when she sparred Olympic champion Claressa Shields and knowing that Holm is a world champion boxer you think she’d have Cyborg’s number in the stand up. Not only does Cyborg have to watch out for Holm’s punches, but she also has to be wary of Holly’s kicks. Holm uses leg kicks better than any fighter in the sport.

But Cyborg is on another level in terms of power and aggression. It’s these that’s going to make the difference here. Both fighters are going to land their shots in this fight. Each will have her moments and despite the power between these two, it’s hard to see a quick ending.

Both are durable and have good defense so this fight is likely going to go past round three. After the midway point though, Cyborg’s power and pressure should wear down Holm. If she doesn’t get a late stoppage, Cris Cyborg is going to win this by unanimous decision.

UFC 216 Odds and Prediction: Fabricio Werdum vs. Derrick Lewis

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Former UFC heavyweight champion Fabricio Werdum squares off against the 7th ranked Derrick Lewis at UFC 216 at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas Nevada on October 7th, 2017.

Coming From Losses

Werdum is coming off of a majority decision loss to Alistair Overeem but remains one of the most dangerous fighters in the UFC’s heavyweight division with his elite grappling and improved striking game.

Lewis is also coming off a loss. The Black Beast lost steam and got knocked out by Mark Hunt at UFC Fight Night 110 last June. He announced his retirement after the bout but has since changed course. Now, Lewis tries to avoid losing back to back fights for the first time in his career. It won’t be easy at all.

Dictating The Fight

Werdum is the favorite here at -250. Lewis, meanwhile, is the slight underdog at +195. This should go down to whoever can dictate the fight and make his opponent fight his style.

Werdum is perhaps the best grappler and submission artist in heavyweight history so it would be prudent for him to take this fight to the ground. Werdum’s striking has improved since his title run but we saw what happened when he stood in front of a heavy hitter like Stipe Miocic.  Derrick Lewis has the same kind of punching power, or even better.

Fourteen of the Black Beast’s 15 wins have come via knockout and only four of his total fights have gone the distance. So, either way, Derrick Lewis is going to come out swinging for the fences against Werdum. There is no doubt that if Lewis can connect, Werdum is definitely going to sleep.

Prediction

Werdum, meanwhile, will try to avoid the Miocic mistake. Because he is the best grappler and submission artist in heavyweight history, he will most certainly try to slow down Lewis by taking the fight to the ground where he is an expert. But Lewis may not be easy to put on the canvas.

The Black Beast is 260 pounds and has good takedown defense. Werdum also has to be wary about Lewis’ reach which is two inches longer than his. If Werdum can’t take this fight to the ground, he’s going to have to eat monster punches from the Black Beast.

This could go either way, really. But we’re picking Derrick Lewis to win this one by stoppage. I just don’t see Werdum taking him to the ground. Lewis’ is the longer man by two inches. He also has the heavier hands. Derrick Lewis by late knockout.

Tony Ferguson vs. Kevin Lee Odds and Prediction

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Tony Ferguson and Kevin Lee fight for the interim UFC lightweight title at the main event of UFC 216 at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada on October 7th, 2017.

Ferguson vs. Lee remained the headliner despite the UFC adding of the flyweight title bout between champion Demetrious ‘Mighty Mouse’ Johnson and Ray Borg to the card. That bout was supposed to headline UFC 215 but Borg pulled out of the fight due to injury. As it stands, the interim 155-pound title bout between El Cucuy and the Motown Phenom remains as the main event.

Interim Title Bout

With Conor McGregor taking the rest of the year off, top ranked lightweight Khabib Nurmagomedov has laid low since pulling out of his UFC 209 showdown with Ferguson due to a botched weight cut. Because of those developments, the UFC decided to keep the lightweight division active by ordering the 2nd ranked Ferguson and the #7 guy Lee to fight for the interim belt.

Ferguson has won an incredible 9 fights in a row and is coming off a decision win over former champion Rafael Dos Anjos last November. Lee, meanwhile, has won five consecutive fights, with four coming by stoppage. In his most recent bout, his first headliner, the 24-year old Lee submitted veteran Michael Chisea.

Equally Matched

Ferguson is favored over Lee at -225 against +175 odds at Bovada and most other UFC betting sites. It doesn’t get any better than this for the UFC. These are two equally matched fighters who can hold their own on the feet, in the clinch or on the canvass. It’s hard to pick a winner here because you can make a claim for either side.

Ferguson is a volume striker who has knockout power and who can submit his opponents on the ground. He’s one of the more conditioned fighters in the game and can win anywhere. Six of his last nine wins have come via stoppage.

Takedowns Are Key

Kevin Lee hasn’t lost since his 2015 defeat to Leonardo Santos. Lee is a strong athlete who takes the fight wherever he wants to and win there. He is an underrated striker but his bread and butter are his takedowns and submissions. He has nine takedowns in his last three fights with each of those bouts ending via stoppage.

Ferguson has been in superb form lately but Kevin Lee’s takedowns and superior strength should be the key here. Look for Lee to drag El Cucuy down and derail him from his game plan. Ferguson is excellent on the ground but Lee may be too strong for him on the canvass. It will be hard to stop Tony Ferguson but Kevin Lee will settle for scoring big takedowns. We’re picking Kevin Lee to win by decision or late submission.

UFC 215: Neil Magny vs. Rafael Dos Anjos Odds and Prediction

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Rafael Dos Anjos is looking to win his second consecutive fight in his new weight class. The former UFC lightweight king will face veteran welterweight Neil Magny in the main card of UFC 215 on September 9th, 2017 at Rogers Place in Edmonton, Alberta.

New Weight Class

After winning his welterweight debut, Rafael Dos Anjos looks to move up the 170-pound ladder by challenging the promotion’s 6th ranked welterweight in Neil Magny. Dos Anjos moved up in weight after back to back losses to Eddie Alvarez and Tony Ferguson. Alvarez made a successful 170-pound debut when he defeated Tarec Saffiedine last June.

Neil Magny saw his three fight winning streak end with a knockout loss to Lorenz Larkin at UFC 202. He rebounded with a solid unanimous decision win over an overweight former champion in Johny Hendricks at UFC 207. With a title shot in his sights, Magny looks to beat another former UFC champion in his second consecutive bout as he faces Dos Anjos in Canada.

The Odds

The former lightweight champ Dos Anjos is the favorite here at -200 at Bovada, while the American Magny is the underdog at +160. This is a very interesting fight to call, really. Dos Anjos will only be fighting for the second time as a welterweight. And coming from lightweight, Dos Anjos really looks physically handicapped in this matchup.

Not only does Magny have a massive seven inch advantage in height, he also has a huge ten inch reach advantage over Rafael Dos Anjos. Magny has used his length to average 4.04 significant strikes landed per minute at an impressive 50% accuracy. That’s going to be a problem for a pressure fighter like Dos Anjos who likes to push the pace against his opponents.

Bigger Man Wins

We’ve seen Neil Magny struggle against pressure fighters before and such was the case in his most recent loss to Lorenz Larkin. But Magny has been a welterweight ever since and he’s used to facing bigger men with bigger punches. He’s beaten heavy hitters like Johny Hendricks, Kelvin Gastelum and Hector Lombard in the past two years so you know he’s no fluke. Dos Anjos lands plenty of strikes but he isn’t a knockout artist, not even at lightweight.

Dos Anjos is good, but he’s giving up too much in size here. Magny is going to have his hands full defending RDA’s strikes but the bigger man will prevail. We’re picking Neil Magny to pick up another decision win. If he gets on top of Dos Anjos more than once in this fight, he could win by ground and pound stoppage too.

MMA Predictions: Amanda Nunes vs. Valentina Shevchenko Odds and Preview

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Amanda ‘The Lioness’ Nunes defends the UFC women’s bantamweight title against Valentina ‘The Bullet’ Shevchenko at UFC 215 at Rogers Place in Edmonton, Canada on September 9th, 2017.

Keep our Fingers Crossed

The rematch between these two bantamweights is finally happening. But still, let’s keep our fingers crossed.

These two were supposed to headline UFC 213 last month but after making weight, Amanda Nunes inexplicably pulled out of the fight after she ‘fell ill’ and despite being cleared by UFC doctors to fight. And despite criticisms, she wasn’t stripped of her belt and the fight was rebooked to UFC 215.

Nunes beat Shevchenko by unanimous decision during their first meeting at UFC 196. But during that fight, Shevchenko finished strong and exposed a lot of holes in Nunes’ game. Nunes went on to become world champion and Shevchenko rose from the ranks by beating the likes of Holly Holm and Julianna Pena.

Lines Have Changed

Nunes opened as a -125 favorite against Shevchenko’s +105 when this rematch was first scheduled for UFC 213. This time around, the lines have changed and it’s Valentina Shevchenko at -125 and Amanda Nunes at +105.

No doubt this is going to be another dogfight between these two strikers. Amanda Nunes is a fantastic finisher with her fists, having stopped 13 of 14 opponents. But the one opponent she couldn’t finish was, well, Valentina Shevchenko.  During their first fight, Nunes started out fast but lost steam in the end. She walked away with the victory but not after getting pummeled by the Bullet.

Mental Edge

Shevchenko may not have Nunes’ power but she has the more diversified attack, thanks to her Muay Thai background. Shevchenko is patient and calculated and she has the counter striking skills to frustrate Nunes. Nunes has the edge in power and athleticism here. But when it comes to skill, technique and more importantly cardio, it’s Shevchenko.

You got to wonder why Nunes pulled from UFC 213 when she was cleared by the doctors. Well, she said she felt ill. But if she was, then why was she cleared to fight? Something tells me Nunes is sick with Valentina-itis. The Bullet is inside her mind. That mental edge could be a big factor in this fight. So will be Valentina’s cardio, skill level and counter striking. We’re picking Shevchenko to become the new UFC women’s bantamweight champion.

UFC Fight Night 115: Will the Skyscraper Remain Unbeaten in Rotterdam?

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Stefan Struve is unbeaten in Rotterdam. In 2008, Struve submitted Ralf Wonnik via armbar in just 15 seconds. Two fights ago at UFC Fight Night 87, Struve knocked out Antonio ‘Bigfoot’ Silva in just 16 seconds.

On September 2nd, 2017, Struve looks to add yet another spectacular win in front of his countrymen as he faces Alexander Volkov in the main event of UFC Fight Night 115 at Ahoy Rotterdam in Rotterdam, Netherlands.

The Skyscraper

Struve is known as the Skyscraper because at 7 feet, he is the tallest fighter on the UFC’s roster. After losing three of four fights, Struve had a good 2016 where he went 2-0. He was supposed to fight Junior Dos Santos at UFC Fight Night 105 last February but was forced out of the bout because of a shoulder injury.

Alexander Volkov is the current M-1 Global heavyweight champion. The 28-year old Russian is a former Bellator heavyweight tournament winner and heavyweight champion. He is unbeaten in the UFC at 2-0 and he is coming off a unanimous decision win over Roy Nelson at UFC on Fox 24 last April.

Odds

Volkov is the slight favorite here at -135 and Struve is the underdog at +105 at Bovada. Not many heavyweights can stand and trade with Struve because of his height and length but in this case, Volkov can hold his own because he is 6-7 with long arms. Having said that, size may not be a factor here even if Struve is still taller. However, the big difference here is Struve’s ability to finish the fight on the ground.

Volkov has been taken down in each of his last fights and if Struve can force him to the ground, he will not only be taken out of his comfort zone but Struve will have the big advantage there. Seventeen of Struve’s 28 wins have come via submission so if he can put Volkov down, he’s got a bag of submission tricks at his disposal.

Prediction

The problem with Struve is that his chin has always been suspect. Six of his losses are by knockout and Volkov has a 65.28% KO rate with 18 KOs in 28 victories. If Volkov can stay on his feet for most of the fight, he’ll likely get the better of the Skyscraper.

Struve is 7-1 in the Netherlands and 2-0 in Rotterdam. He has always fought well in front of his countrymen and this one should be no different. Volkov is an excellent fighter but Struve is a tried and tested veteran. Of course, the four inch reach and five inch height difference is still there. And yes, Struve’s submission skills should be the key. We’re picking Stefan Struve to pull of the upset by decision or submission.

Bellator MMA

Bellator 182: Can Andrey Koreshkov Avoid Back to Back Defeats?

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Former Bellator welterweight champion Andrey Koreshkov returns to the cage against rising contender Chidi Njokuani at the main event of Bellator 182 on August 25th, 2017 at the Turning Stone Resort Casino in Verona, New York.

Koreshkov is coming off a first round knockout loss during his rematch with Douglas Lima at Bellator 164 last November. The loss was only the second in 21 fights for Koreshkov and his first since 2013. Not only did the loss snap the Spartan’s six fight winning streak, it also stripped him of the title he won from Lima in 2015.

Losing The Rematch

Koreshkov won the Bellator welterweight title with a five round unanimous decision win over Douglas Lima at Bellator 140. After an impressive first title defense against former UFC lightweight champion Benson Henderson at Bellator 153, Koreshkov faced Lima in a highly anticipated rematch and lost the fight.

After a tactical first couple of rounds, Koreshkov and Lima stood toe to toe against each other in Round three. After it appeared that Koreshkov hurt Lima during the fierce exchange, the former champion unleashed a deadly counter left hook that knocked Koreshkov out cold. The loss was only Koreshkov’s second defeat but both losses have been by knockout.

Chidi Bang Bang

Njokuani, the brother of former UFC fighter Anthony, isn’t known as ‘Chidi Bang Bang’ for nothing. The 28-year old Nigerian-American has a 58% knockout ratio with 10 KOs in 17 wins. He has not lost since 2013 and is coming off a unanimous decision win over UFC veteran Melvin Guillard. Prior to that, Njokuani destroyed Andre Fialho in 21 seconds at Bellator 167.

Njokuani relies on his kickboxing base and utilizes kicks to slow down his opponents and score knockouts ( he has four KOs via leg kicks or knees ). Although he is known more for his kicks, Njokuani can also hold his own with his punches. In fact, he’s never been knocked out before as all of his six losses have been by decision.

Odds and Prediction

Former champion Koreshkov is the betting favorite here at -325, while Njokuani is the underdog at 255. There is more pressure on Koreshkov to win as he has not lost back to back fights in his career. Both of these fighters will be fighting in New York for the first time and it will be interesting to see who does better in their Big Apple debut.

This is a good fight between two athletic specimens who both love to fight on their feet. If you take a look at their losses, neither of these two guys have lost by decision. Both love to win by knockout but while Koreshkov always looks for the quick stoppage, Njokuani is like a surgeon who wears his opponents out before finishing them.

We’re picking Koreshkov, though, because we don’t think Njokuani can take the pressure of the Spartan. Koreshkov is more powerful and has a more diverse attack. We’re picking Andrey Koreshkov to win on points.

Fabricio Werdum vs. Alistair Overeem: Who Will Take The Grudge Match?

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Former UFC Heavyweight champion Fabricio Werdum takes on Alistair Overeem in a battle of Top 3 UFC Heavyweights. The two will fight in the main card of UFC 213 on July 8th, 2017 at the T-Mobile Arena.

Both Aiming At Another Title Shot

Werdum has won seven of his last eight fights and is coming off a win over Travis Browne at UFC 203. One fight earlier, Werdum lost the UFC Heavyweight title via first round knockout to Stipe Miocic in Brazil at UFC 198. The #1 ranked Werdum is looking for another shot at gold. A victory over the #3 ranked Overeem would almost certainly give him that.

Overeem, meanwhile, is coming off a 3rd round knockout of Mark Hunt at UFC 209. The former Strikeforce Heavyweight champion has won five of his last six bouts with his only loss coming during his title challenge against Miocic at UFC 203. Overeem’s last three victories have been by stoppage. A victory over Werdum could also lead to another title shot versus Miocic.

Breaking The Tie

This is the third fight between these two massive individuals, but their first meeting in the UFC promotion. Werdum won their first fight at Japan’s Pride Promotion in 2006 by kimura submission. Five years later, Overeem returned the favor when the two met at Strikeforce in 2011. Overeem won that fight by unanimous decision.

Fast forward another six years and they meet again in a bout that will not only break the tie but also decide which one continues with his title quest. Werdum is now 39 and Overeem 37 and this could very well be their last run at the UFC Heavyweight belt, now owned by Stipe Miocic, who owns victory over both.

Odds and Prediction

Overeem is the slight favorite here at -150, while Werdum is the underdog at +110. Eleven years after they first fought, their styles haven’t changed a lot, except perhaps for Werdum, who has developed an elite striking game. Despite that, the Brazilian still prefers to fight on the ground, where he has the advantage over every other heavyweight in the business.

Werdum’s such a great grappler and excellent submission artist and he’d rather stay down rather than strike with Overeem. Reem prefers to strike where he owns some of the most vicious kicks in the business. But that doesn’t mean he can’t fight on the ground. Nineteen of the Dutchman’s 42 wins have come by submission, so he’s no joke there either. With his versatility and the superior striking skills, we’re going with Alistair Overeem here.

Unless Werdum can take this fight to the ground, Overeem’s more diverse game makes him a good pick here.

Pick: Alistair Overeem by early  knockout or unanimous decision.

UFC 212 Betting: Why Claudia Gadelha Will Beat Karolina Kowalkiewicz

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A women’s strawweight matchup between top contenders Claudia Gadelha and Karolina Kowalkiewicz has been added to the UFC 212 PPV event which will be held at the HSBC Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil on June 3rd, 2017.

Another Title Shot For Winner

Gadelha and Kowalkiewicz are the 2nd and 3rd ranked fighters in the UFC women’s strawweight division. The two have also already faced and lost to current champion Joanna Jedrzejczyk in the past and the victor here could very well be on her way to a second crack at the world title.

Gadelha has lost twice in her career but both losses came at the hands of Jedrzejczyk and the first one, which was a non-title fight, came via close split decision. She’s 2-2 in her last four bouts but won her most recent outing via decision over Cortney Casey at UFC Fight Night 100 last November of 2016.

Kowalkiewicz meanwhile opened her UFC career with a string of three victories that included a split decision win over Rose Namajunas at UFC 201. That bout was a title eliminator and it earned her a shot at Jedrzejczyk at the monumental UFC 205 last November. Kowalkiewicz lost to her compatriot via clear unanimous decision.

Odds and Prediction

Gadelha is the favorite here at -300 while Kowalkiewicz is a +240 underdog.  The key here will be takedowns as Gadelha is a takedown machine with an average of 4.59 takedowns per fifteen minutes at an accuracy of 57.7%. Kowalkiewicz hasn’t shown any signs of a ground game in the UFC and to win this fight, she must keep it on her feet where she has the advantage.

The Polish fighter is averaging 4.56 significant strikes landed per minute as compared to Gadelha’s average of 3.59. Kowalkiewicz is a smart fighter who knows how to adjust and take what her opponent gives her. She doesn’t force the issue but is pretty effective doing it. She’s won 8 of her 11 bouts by decision, so she’s a tough girl.

Claudia Gadelha just doesn’t seem to be a good matchup for Karolina Kowalkiewicz. While Kowalkiewicz hasn’t shown any ground game, she’s been taken down thrice in her last two fights. Against Gadelha, she won’t be comfortable on the canvass. So unless she keeps the fight on her feet for fifteen minutes, I don’t see how she can topple Gadelha who hasn’t lost in Brazil.

It’s not going to be a walk in the park but we’re picking Claudia Gadelha to beat Karolina KowalKiewicz.