Tag Archives: MMA Betting

UFC Fight Night 108: Al Iaquinta vs. Diego Sanchez Odds and Prediction

Sports News & Picks, , , , , , , , , ,

Al Iaquinta makes his long awaited octagon return against one of the UFC’s most grizzled veterans in Diego Sanchez at UFC Fight Night 108 at the Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tennessee on April 22nd.

Rage Stopped

Iaquinta was one of the UFC’s up and coming stars when he suddenly disappeared from the radar. Prior to that, the man known as ‘Raging’ won four straight bouts including three against highly touted foes in Ross Pearson, Joe Lauzon and Jorge Masvidal. But the rage stopped as injury and a contract dispute forced Iaquinta out of the octagon during the last two years.

Iaquinta’s MMA stock dropped with the layoff and he is now just #14 in the UFC’s crowded lightweight division. Needing to make up for lost time, Iaquinta prepares to fight for the first time in Tennessee and his opponent is will be one of the most recognizable faces in the promotion.

The Ultimate Fighter

While Raging Al was in the freezer, Diego Sanchez fought four times, going 2-2 during that period. In his most recent bout, Sanchez beat Marcin Held by unanimous decision at the TUF Latin America 3 finale last November.

Sanchez’s reputation has always preceded him. Since winning the inaugural season of the Ultimate Fighter, we’ve seen Sanchez in some of the most gruesome performances ever inside the UFC octagon. His toughness isn’t to be denied and his penchant to dive deep into wars is what makes him ever dangerous.

Experience vs Consistency

Diego has been hit and miss lately, though, splitting his last 14 outings. Although he’s coming off a victory over Marcin Held, he’s not won back to back fights since 2011. At 36, he is obviously past his prime and on the way down. But having a decorated veteran with plus money always makes an interesting bout to bet on and this one is no exception. Most UFC betting sites have Sanchez as a +285 underdog here, while the favored Iaquinta is at -350.

Sanchez has the experience advantage here and Iaquinta is coming off of a layoff. Diego’s takedowns are a threat and you can’t discount his submission skills. He’s going to take this deep in the trenches and hope that Iaquinta’s inexperience and ring rust will be exposed.

This is Iaquinta’s first bout in two years and that is another cause of concern. But ring rust aside, Iaquinta may be nearing his prime. He’s got pop in his strikes and has shown he can win an ugly grinder, too. Diego Sanchez is a tantalizing pick, really. But given Al Iaquinta’s consistency, we don’t think ring rust will matter here. We’re picking him to beat Sanchez here.

UFC 209: Tyron Woodley vs. Stephen Thompson Odds and Prediction

Sports News & Picks, , , , , , , , , ,

Five rounds weren’t enough to get a winner. Now the UFC adds another five more.

Four months after they figured in a controversial majority draw at the historic UFC 205 last November, UFC welterweight champion Tyron Woodley and top contender Stephen Thompson go at it again. This time, the welterweight pair will be the headliner of UFC 209 at Las Vegas’ T-Mobile Arena.

Controversial Draw

Woodley won the UFC welterweight title with a dramatic first round knockout of Robbie Lawler at UFC 201 in July of 2016. He retained the belt with the controversial draw against Wonderboy in November. But retaining the title won’t be enough for the Chosen One. Woodley plans on giving Wonderboy the worst beating of his career.

After their first bout, Thompson was immediately campaigning for a rematch. Woodley on the other hand, tried to lure the UFC into booking him big fights with GSP or Nick Diaz. In the end though, Dana White felt the two needed five more rounds to settle the score. They were booked to be the main event of UFC 209 on March 4th in Sin City.

The Odds

Stephen Thompson opened as a -120 favorite while the champion Woodley opened at even money. The current money lines haven’t changed much with Thompson fluctuating from -120 to -135 and Woodley from even money to +105. Woodley won’t like these numbers but these are better than the +120 and +140 with which he opened and closed during their first bout. However, it’s still surprising how Woodley is the underdog considering what transpired during their first meeting.

Woodley outstruck Thompson 113-60 in total strikes and 61-43 in significant strikes. He was also able to take Thompson down once and nearly submitted Wonderboy at one point in the bout. Many observers felt Woodley won and got the raw deal from the judges. Not only did he land more shots, he was the one who connected with the more telling blows.

More Well Rounded

Despite getting only a draw from the judges, Woodley erased the doubts on his cardio and his ability to mix it up with a premiere striker like Stephen Thompson. Not only did he take Thompson’s strikes well, but he also showed that he was the more well-rounded fighter.

Nothing much changes here, especially since their last fight was only last November. Sure, Wonderboy will make adjustments, but so will Woodley. Overall, we see Tyron Woodley as the better all-around fighter and Wonderboy the more flashy striker. Look for Woodley to shoot for more takedowns in the rematch. He had Thompson in a whole lot of trouble on his back. Wonderboy won’t be easy to beat though, even on the ground. But Woodley is going to hack out a decision win in this fight. It’s going to be close, perhaps a split decision. But Woodley should get the win this time around.

UFC Fight Night 104: Dennis Bermudez vs. Chan Sung Jung Odds and Prediction

Sports News & Picks, , , , , , , ,

One of the UFC’s most charismatic fighters returns to the octagon after a three-year absence.

Zombie Returns

South Korean featherweight Chan Sung Jung will make his UFC return on February 4th at UFC Fight Night 104 at the Toyota Center in Houston, Texas. Known as the Korean Zombie for his uncanny ability to take heavy punishment, Jung left the UFC in 2013 in order to serve his two year mandatory military service to his home country. Jung hasn’t fought since his failed title bid against Jose Aldo at UFC 163.

Meanwhile, Dennis Bermudez will be getting his first main event appearance against the Korean Zombie. A finalist in The Ultimate Fighter 14, Bermudez is 2-2 in his last four bouts but has won two fights in a row. The Menace is coming off decision wins over Tatsuya Kawajiri and Rony Jason and will be looking to improve his current #9 ranking in the UFC’s 145 pound division. Jung is unranked but don’t let that deceive you.

Choke Artist?

Current odds have Bermudez a slight -135 favorite over Jung’s +123. The reason is likely the Korean Zombie’s three-year hiatus from the sport. On the other hand, Bermudez has won two in a row with both wins coming in 2016. However, Bermudez hasn’t had a really meaningful win since beating Max Holloway by split decision at UFC 160 in 2013. Prior to his win streak, he lost by stoppage to Ricardo Lamas and Jeremy Stephens.

Bermudez likes to wear his opponents down and beat them in a grinder. But while he’s an excellent wrestler, he doesn’t have good submission defense. Four of his five losses have actually come by submission. The problem here is that Chan Sung Jung is a submission artist, with 9 of his 14 wins by submission. It’s interesting to note that three of Bermudez’s four submission losses were via chokes and five of Jung’s nine submission wins were by chokes, too.

The Pick

Bermudez has a feared ground and pound game but remember he lost the TUF 14 tournament after getting caught with an armbar while hammering Diego Barandao. Having said that, the Korean Zombie should have the advantage if this fight goes down to the ground.

On their feet, Jung is the better striker and has the physical advantages over Bermudez at three inches in height and six inches in reach. Given the plus money, I’d risk the Zombie’s ring rust and pick him to submit Dennis Bermudez for the victory.

Bellator 170: Tito Ortiz vs. Chael Sonnen Odds and Prediction

Sports News & Picks, , , , , , , ,

Former UFC light heavyweight champion Tito Ortiz and UFC light heavyweight title contender Chael Sonnen collide on January 21st in the main event of Bellator 170 at the Forum in Inglewood, California.

One Last Hurrah

Bellator continues to put up the blast from the past matchups, this time pitting 41-year old Tito Ortiz against the nearly 40-year old Chael Sonnen. But despite the fact that these two fighters are way past their athletic primes, they remain two of the more popular figures in MMA. Still, apart from being very good draws, there is almost nothing left in the tank for both.

Tito Ortiz has lost seven of his last 10 bouts and is coming off a 2015 loss to Liam McGeary at Bellator 142. He’s 2-1 in his Bellator career but has not won since a split decision win over Stephan Bonnar in 2014. On the other hand, Chael Sonnen has been an respectable 6-4 in his last 10 bouts. Sonnen is coming off a TKO loss to Rashad Evans at UFC 167, way back in 2013. He’s been hit or miss lately, though, splitting his last 8 bouts with four wins and four losses. Chael’s last victory came in 2013 against Mauricio ‘Shogun’ Rua at UFC Fight Night 26.

Wrestler Vs Striker

Sonnen was an All-American wrestler during his college days and was a good international Greco-Roman wrestler. Having said that, wrestling is the core of Sonnen’s MMA game. He is widely known for his double leg takedown, which used to be one of the best in the business. Chael does have respectable striking skills but typically he uses it to set up the takedown.

Ortiz, meanwhile, gained fame for being the ‘Huntington Beach Bad Boy’ who punched his way to superstardom. Known as one of the fighters who brought MMA to the mainstream, Ortiz used to own a punishing ground and pound game. His powerful hands give him the advantage here in the striking game, but he has a weakness of being foolishly lured to a slugfest which has led to defeat several times.

Plus Money

Sonnen opened as a -155 favorite against Ortiz’s +125. Those lines haven’t changed much since at -160 and +130, respectively. With two fighters who’ve been doing anything but fighting lately, it’s really hard to pick a winner here because you don’t know what each has got left in the tank, if any. It’s really another show for Bellator, but one that’s interesting to bet on.

The slightly younger Sonnen may have the fighting edge because of his style. Given Sonnen’s base and Ortiz’s striking, Chael will take his chances on the ground rather than on his feet against a heavy handed opponent like Tito Ortiz. Having said that, Ortiz himself has a polished ground game and can finish the fight on the mat too. The question, of course, is what remains of Sonnen’s game after the time he’s spent off the cage. This will be Sonnen’s first Bellator bout.

The value of the plus money on Ortiz is tempting and then there are the intangibles. First, Ortiz has fought more recently. He is also the naturally bigger man between the two and will be the crowd favorite since the fight will be in California. So, to pick between two aged veterans, I’d rather take my chance on the plus money and intangibles. It also doesn’t hurt that Tito felt slighted by Sonnen. Unsurprisingly, we’re taking Tito Ortiz by knockout.