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UFC 223 Odds and Prediction: Tony Ferguson vs. Khabib Nurmagomedov

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They say the third time is the charm but in this case, it’s the fourth.

Tony Ferguson and Khabib Nurmagomedov have been booked thrice in the past to fight each other but each time they were slated to fight, something happened in between that caused the fight to be cancelled. With barely two weeks to go before UFC 223, it appears that the fight everybody has been waiting for will finally happen.

Ferguson and Nurmagomedov are set to fight for the UFC Lightweight title at the main event of UFC 223 at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York. Ferguson is the current interim title holder and has won a lightweight division record of 10 fights in a row.

In his last bout, Ferguson choked out Kevin Lee to become interim lightweight champion.  El Cucuy has not lost since 2012 and appears to be only getting better.

Balanced Fighters

Nurmagomedov is unbeaten in 25 fights and has 19 knockouts. In his most recent triumph, Khabib dominated Edson Barboza at UFC 219. The former combat sambo champion and judo black belt is one of the most dangerous fighters in the planet. He has beaten every man put in front of him and has won everything in the game except the belt.

Nurmagomedov is favored here at -275 at Bovada, while Ferguson came back at +215.

We know how dynamic of a striker Tony Ferguson is and we know how equally good he is with his submission game. El Cucuy has knockout power in both hands and he likes to put on the pressure and employ volume striking.

But Nurmagomedov is just as balanced as Ferguson is as a fighter. He is relentless in going for takedowns and once he secures them, it seems like his opponents never find a way to get out of them. But Khabib isn’t just a grappler, he also possesses a wide array of strikes and can finish his opponent with either hand.

The Best Lightweights

This is going to be one hell of a fight between the two best lightweights in the planet, Conor McGregor notwithstanding.

Sure, Khabib has looked invincible up to this point and no opponent has been able to really wrestle with him. But not only is Ferguson physically bigger, he is equally adept on the ground. In fact, El Cucuy may have more finishing moves than the Dagestani. On the feet, it’s almost even but it’s Ferguson who has the ability to end the fight with one punch.

Common sense tells us to bet on Nurmagomedov who hasn’t shown us anything to bet against him. But Ferguson is a different beast and he too has shown little reason to doubt him.

Another factor here could be Khabib’s inactivity. He’s fought just once in the past year and while it didn’t look obvious against Barboza, it could show against a more dynamic foe like Ferguson.

We’re getting almost twice the money with Ferguson and in a close fight like this, you’d like to go with that kind of line. We’re picking Tony Ferguson to win this fight and become the undisputed lightweight champion of the world.

UFC 220 Odds and Prediction: Daniel Cormier vs. Volkan Oezdemir

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Daniel Cormier will defend the UFC light heavyweight title against Volkan Oezdemir on January 20th, 2018 at UFC 220 in Boston’s TD Garden.

Cormier was recently reinstated as the UFC’s 205-pound king after Jon Jones failed yet another drug test. Prior to that, Jones stopped Cormier cold during their rematch at UFC to reclaim the UFC light heavyweight crown. The loss was Cormier’s second to Jones and only the second loss of his MMA career.

Volkan Oezdemir is one of the fastest rising fighters in the UFC. A winner of three straight bouts, Oezdemir is coming off a victory over the highly touted Jimi Manuwa in July. Prior to that, Oezdemir scored a first round KO of Misha Cirkunov and came away with a split decision win over Ovince St. Preux.  

Untested Ground Game

DC is the favorite here at -300 while Oezdemir came back at +240.

Oezdemir has that one punch knockout power in him so he always has a shot to win any fight. But against Cormier, he’ll be fighting an opponent who has seen it all inside that Octagon. Cormier is one of the sport’s best grapplers owing to his collegiate and Olympic wrestling background. Against a powerful striker like Oezdemir, you bet he’s going to take this fight to the ground.

Oezdemir has real knockout power and is primarily a striker because of his kickboxing background. On his feet, he averages 6.12 significant strikes per minute landed but in three UFC fights, he has zero takedowns landed.

This is going to be his problem against Cormier who is a supreme wrestler. DC averages just 1.81 takedowns per 15 minutes but he doesn’t need to many of them. Once he gets his opponent to the ground, it’s going to be a grind.

DC is Too Smart

There is no denying that Volkan Oezdemir has the power to knock out anybody. While Cormier has a granite chin, we saw him get knocked out by Jon Jones due to voluminous strikes. Oezdemir is well capable of doing the same, that is if he withstands Cormier’s ground attack early in the fight.

We’ve seen this in many of DC’s older fights. He takes his opponents down early and punishes them on the ground. In the later rounds, his opponents get weary and Cormier begins to take over. Looks like this will be how this fight unfolds.

DC is too smart to stand and trade with Oezdemir. He’s going to take away his punching power by forcing him to the ground early. Once Oezdemir’s pop is gone, DC’s going to take care of this fight.

We’re picking Daniel Cormier to win this bout by decision.

Will Georges St. Pierre Make History Against Michael Bisping?

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Michael Bisping defends his UFC middleweight title against former welterweight champion Georges St. Pierre at the main event of UFC 217 on November 4th, 2017 at the Madison Square Garden in New York, USA.

Bisping will be defending the title for the second time since upsetting Luke Rockhold at UFC 199 in June of 2016. The Count defeated Dan Henderson via decision to keep his belt at UFC 204. He has not lost since getting submitted by Rockhold in 2014.

Walked Away

St. Pierre walked away from the sport in 2013, citing wear and tear issues. GSP has won his last twelve bouts with seven of his last eight victories coming by way of decision. St. Pierre was once the best fighter on the planet but a lot has changed in the game since he left.

He will be attempting to make history and become only the fourth fighter to win world titles in different weight classes. Only Randy Couture, B.J. Penn and Conor McGregor are the fighters to achieve the feat.

Out Too Long

As expected, GSP opened as the odds on favorite in this title bout at -130 and the champion Bisping the underdog at +120. The odds have moved a bit with St. Pierre now at -130 at Bovada and Bisping with EVEN odds. Regardless of the numbers, this one should be an interesting fight to watch.

GSP is one of the most complete fighters in the sport and has not lost in a decade. Having spent so much time outside of the octagon leaves plenty of questions regarding his conditioning and ability to be effective especially since he is moving up in weight for this bout.

A Tactical Fight

Naturally, Bisping is the bigger man and has more punching power. He would like to keep this fight on his feet, where he has the best chance to defeat St. Pierre. Not many can keep up with the pace of the Count once he gets his stand-up going. He’s going to pressure GSP and make the Canadian fight going backwards.

St. Pierre, though, is a master of avoiding damage. Against Bisping, he will want to take this fight to the ground to negate the size and power advantage. St. Pierre is a very crafty wrestler who has excellent control in the canvas. This fight could be tactical and boring but that’s how St. Pierre usually wins. Nothing different here.

Bisping’s takedown defense is good but it’s not stellar. It will be put to the test against St. Pierre. We’re picking Georges St. Pierre to win a tactical battle. GSP by decision.

UFC 216 Odds and Prediction: Fabricio Werdum vs. Derrick Lewis

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Former UFC heavyweight champion Fabricio Werdum squares off against the 7th ranked Derrick Lewis at UFC 216 at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas Nevada on October 7th, 2017.

Coming From Losses

Werdum is coming off of a majority decision loss to Alistair Overeem but remains one of the most dangerous fighters in the UFC’s heavyweight division with his elite grappling and improved striking game.

Lewis is also coming off a loss. The Black Beast lost steam and got knocked out by Mark Hunt at UFC Fight Night 110 last June. He announced his retirement after the bout but has since changed course. Now, Lewis tries to avoid losing back to back fights for the first time in his career. It won’t be easy at all.

Dictating The Fight

Werdum is the favorite here at -250. Lewis, meanwhile, is the slight underdog at +195. This should go down to whoever can dictate the fight and make his opponent fight his style.

Werdum is perhaps the best grappler and submission artist in heavyweight history so it would be prudent for him to take this fight to the ground. Werdum’s striking has improved since his title run but we saw what happened when he stood in front of a heavy hitter like Stipe Miocic.  Derrick Lewis has the same kind of punching power, or even better.

Fourteen of the Black Beast’s 15 wins have come via knockout and only four of his total fights have gone the distance. So, either way, Derrick Lewis is going to come out swinging for the fences against Werdum. There is no doubt that if Lewis can connect, Werdum is definitely going to sleep.

Prediction

Werdum, meanwhile, will try to avoid the Miocic mistake. Because he is the best grappler and submission artist in heavyweight history, he will most certainly try to slow down Lewis by taking the fight to the ground where he is an expert. But Lewis may not be easy to put on the canvas.

The Black Beast is 260 pounds and has good takedown defense. Werdum also has to be wary about Lewis’ reach which is two inches longer than his. If Werdum can’t take this fight to the ground, he’s going to have to eat monster punches from the Black Beast.

This could go either way, really. But we’re picking Derrick Lewis to win this one by stoppage. I just don’t see Werdum taking him to the ground. Lewis’ is the longer man by two inches. He also has the heavier hands. Derrick Lewis by late knockout.

Tony Ferguson vs. Kevin Lee Odds and Prediction

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Tony Ferguson and Kevin Lee fight for the interim UFC lightweight title at the main event of UFC 216 at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada on October 7th, 2017.

Ferguson vs. Lee remained the headliner despite the UFC adding of the flyweight title bout between champion Demetrious ‘Mighty Mouse’ Johnson and Ray Borg to the card. That bout was supposed to headline UFC 215 but Borg pulled out of the fight due to injury. As it stands, the interim 155-pound title bout between El Cucuy and the Motown Phenom remains as the main event.

Interim Title Bout

With Conor McGregor taking the rest of the year off, top ranked lightweight Khabib Nurmagomedov has laid low since pulling out of his UFC 209 showdown with Ferguson due to a botched weight cut. Because of those developments, the UFC decided to keep the lightweight division active by ordering the 2nd ranked Ferguson and the #7 guy Lee to fight for the interim belt.

Ferguson has won an incredible 9 fights in a row and is coming off a decision win over former champion Rafael Dos Anjos last November. Lee, meanwhile, has won five consecutive fights, with four coming by stoppage. In his most recent bout, his first headliner, the 24-year old Lee submitted veteran Michael Chisea.

Equally Matched

Ferguson is favored over Lee at -225 against +175 odds at Bovada and most other UFC betting sites. It doesn’t get any better than this for the UFC. These are two equally matched fighters who can hold their own on the feet, in the clinch or on the canvass. It’s hard to pick a winner here because you can make a claim for either side.

Ferguson is a volume striker who has knockout power and who can submit his opponents on the ground. He’s one of the more conditioned fighters in the game and can win anywhere. Six of his last nine wins have come via stoppage.

Takedowns Are Key

Kevin Lee hasn’t lost since his 2015 defeat to Leonardo Santos. Lee is a strong athlete who takes the fight wherever he wants to and win there. He is an underrated striker but his bread and butter are his takedowns and submissions. He has nine takedowns in his last three fights with each of those bouts ending via stoppage.

Ferguson has been in superb form lately but Kevin Lee’s takedowns and superior strength should be the key here. Look for Lee to drag El Cucuy down and derail him from his game plan. Ferguson is excellent on the ground but Lee may be too strong for him on the canvass. It will be hard to stop Tony Ferguson but Kevin Lee will settle for scoring big takedowns. We’re picking Kevin Lee to win by decision or late submission.

Luke Rockhold vs. David Branch: Will Rockhold Return in Style?

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Former UFC middleweight champion Luke Rockhold returns to the Octagon after a fifteen month absence as he takes on former WSOF middleweight titleholder David Branch in the main event of UFC Fight Night 116 at the PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburg, Pennsylvania.

Long Layoff

Luke Rockhold has not fought since losing the middleweight title to the brash Briton Michael Bisping at UFC 199. Bisping upset Rockhold via first round knockout to win the world title for the first time in his career. Rockhold was set to return last November to face Ronaldo ‘Jacare’ Souza at UFC Fight Night 101 but pulled out from the bout with an injury.

Rockhold’s opponent is the former WSOF’s inaugural middleweight and light heavyweight champion David Branch. Branch defended the middleweight title thrice and the light heavyweight crown once. He is on his second tour of duty with the UFC and is coming off a win over Krzysztopf Jotko. Branch had a mediocre 2-2 record during his first stint with the  UFC.

Odds and Prediction

Rockhold is a big -450 favorite against Branch who is currently a huge underdog at +350 and there’s no surprise to that. Luke Rockhold is one of the best all-around fighters in the sport. He is dangerous with his leg kicks and strikes but is equally deadly with his wrestling and submission game. Rockhold’s last five wins have ended in a knockout.

On the other hand, David Branch is a smart fighter who who has solid defense. He is a proven takedown artist with an average of 2.33 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. Rockhold only averages 0.56 takedowns per 15 minutes but is by far the more productive striker between the two with an average of 4.17 significant strikes landed per 15 minutes. David Branch only averages 1.49 significant strikes landed per 15 minutes.

Will Layoff be A Factor

It will be interesting to see how Rockhold performs after a fifteen month layoff. He’s never lost back to back fights in his career and he’s hoping to avoid that.

Branch meanwhile has won 11 consecutive bouts and hasn’t lost since he was beaten by Rumble Johnson in 2012. Branch has a slight advantage in reach and is the naturally bigger man here. This is a dangerous fight for Luke Rockhold. But Rockhold’s got the experience and the better wrestling game here.

We’re picking Luke Rockhold to win. He’s going to end this fight early and win in style.

MMA Predictions: Amanda Nunes vs. Valentina Shevchenko Odds and Preview

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Amanda ‘The Lioness’ Nunes defends the UFC women’s bantamweight title against Valentina ‘The Bullet’ Shevchenko at UFC 215 at Rogers Place in Edmonton, Canada on September 9th, 2017.

Keep our Fingers Crossed

The rematch between these two bantamweights is finally happening. But still, let’s keep our fingers crossed.

These two were supposed to headline UFC 213 last month but after making weight, Amanda Nunes inexplicably pulled out of the fight after she ‘fell ill’ and despite being cleared by UFC doctors to fight. And despite criticisms, she wasn’t stripped of her belt and the fight was rebooked to UFC 215.

Nunes beat Shevchenko by unanimous decision during their first meeting at UFC 196. But during that fight, Shevchenko finished strong and exposed a lot of holes in Nunes’ game. Nunes went on to become world champion and Shevchenko rose from the ranks by beating the likes of Holly Holm and Julianna Pena.

Lines Have Changed

Nunes opened as a -125 favorite against Shevchenko’s +105 when this rematch was first scheduled for UFC 213. This time around, the lines have changed and it’s Valentina Shevchenko at -125 and Amanda Nunes at +105.

No doubt this is going to be another dogfight between these two strikers. Amanda Nunes is a fantastic finisher with her fists, having stopped 13 of 14 opponents. But the one opponent she couldn’t finish was, well, Valentina Shevchenko.  During their first fight, Nunes started out fast but lost steam in the end. She walked away with the victory but not after getting pummeled by the Bullet.

Mental Edge

Shevchenko may not have Nunes’ power but she has the more diversified attack, thanks to her Muay Thai background. Shevchenko is patient and calculated and she has the counter striking skills to frustrate Nunes. Nunes has the edge in power and athleticism here. But when it comes to skill, technique and more importantly cardio, it’s Shevchenko.

You got to wonder why Nunes pulled from UFC 213 when she was cleared by the doctors. Well, she said she felt ill. But if she was, then why was she cleared to fight? Something tells me Nunes is sick with Valentina-itis. The Bullet is inside her mind. That mental edge could be a big factor in this fight. So will be Valentina’s cardio, skill level and counter striking. We’re picking Shevchenko to become the new UFC women’s bantamweight champion.

Bellator MMA

Bellator 182: Can Andrey Koreshkov Avoid Back to Back Defeats?

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Former Bellator welterweight champion Andrey Koreshkov returns to the cage against rising contender Chidi Njokuani at the main event of Bellator 182 on August 25th, 2017 at the Turning Stone Resort Casino in Verona, New York.

Koreshkov is coming off a first round knockout loss during his rematch with Douglas Lima at Bellator 164 last November. The loss was only the second in 21 fights for Koreshkov and his first since 2013. Not only did the loss snap the Spartan’s six fight winning streak, it also stripped him of the title he won from Lima in 2015.

Losing The Rematch

Koreshkov won the Bellator welterweight title with a five round unanimous decision win over Douglas Lima at Bellator 140. After an impressive first title defense against former UFC lightweight champion Benson Henderson at Bellator 153, Koreshkov faced Lima in a highly anticipated rematch and lost the fight.

After a tactical first couple of rounds, Koreshkov and Lima stood toe to toe against each other in Round three. After it appeared that Koreshkov hurt Lima during the fierce exchange, the former champion unleashed a deadly counter left hook that knocked Koreshkov out cold. The loss was only Koreshkov’s second defeat but both losses have been by knockout.

Chidi Bang Bang

Njokuani, the brother of former UFC fighter Anthony, isn’t known as ‘Chidi Bang Bang’ for nothing. The 28-year old Nigerian-American has a 58% knockout ratio with 10 KOs in 17 wins. He has not lost since 2013 and is coming off a unanimous decision win over UFC veteran Melvin Guillard. Prior to that, Njokuani destroyed Andre Fialho in 21 seconds at Bellator 167.

Njokuani relies on his kickboxing base and utilizes kicks to slow down his opponents and score knockouts ( he has four KOs via leg kicks or knees ). Although he is known more for his kicks, Njokuani can also hold his own with his punches. In fact, he’s never been knocked out before as all of his six losses have been by decision.

Odds and Prediction

Former champion Koreshkov is the betting favorite here at -325, while Njokuani is the underdog at 255. There is more pressure on Koreshkov to win as he has not lost back to back fights in his career. Both of these fighters will be fighting in New York for the first time and it will be interesting to see who does better in their Big Apple debut.

This is a good fight between two athletic specimens who both love to fight on their feet. If you take a look at their losses, neither of these two guys have lost by decision. Both love to win by knockout but while Koreshkov always looks for the quick stoppage, Njokuani is like a surgeon who wears his opponents out before finishing them.

We’re picking Koreshkov, though, because we don’t think Njokuani can take the pressure of the Spartan. Koreshkov is more powerful and has a more diverse attack. We’re picking Andrey Koreshkov to win on points.

UFC 212 Betting: Why Claudia Gadelha Will Beat Karolina Kowalkiewicz

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A women’s strawweight matchup between top contenders Claudia Gadelha and Karolina Kowalkiewicz has been added to the UFC 212 PPV event which will be held at the HSBC Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil on June 3rd, 2017.

Another Title Shot For Winner

Gadelha and Kowalkiewicz are the 2nd and 3rd ranked fighters in the UFC women’s strawweight division. The two have also already faced and lost to current champion Joanna Jedrzejczyk in the past and the victor here could very well be on her way to a second crack at the world title.

Gadelha has lost twice in her career but both losses came at the hands of Jedrzejczyk and the first one, which was a non-title fight, came via close split decision. She’s 2-2 in her last four bouts but won her most recent outing via decision over Cortney Casey at UFC Fight Night 100 last November of 2016.

Kowalkiewicz meanwhile opened her UFC career with a string of three victories that included a split decision win over Rose Namajunas at UFC 201. That bout was a title eliminator and it earned her a shot at Jedrzejczyk at the monumental UFC 205 last November. Kowalkiewicz lost to her compatriot via clear unanimous decision.

Odds and Prediction

Gadelha is the favorite here at -300 while Kowalkiewicz is a +240 underdog.  The key here will be takedowns as Gadelha is a takedown machine with an average of 4.59 takedowns per fifteen minutes at an accuracy of 57.7%. Kowalkiewicz hasn’t shown any signs of a ground game in the UFC and to win this fight, she must keep it on her feet where she has the advantage.

The Polish fighter is averaging 4.56 significant strikes landed per minute as compared to Gadelha’s average of 3.59. Kowalkiewicz is a smart fighter who knows how to adjust and take what her opponent gives her. She doesn’t force the issue but is pretty effective doing it. She’s won 8 of her 11 bouts by decision, so she’s a tough girl.

Claudia Gadelha just doesn’t seem to be a good matchup for Karolina Kowalkiewicz. While Kowalkiewicz hasn’t shown any ground game, she’s been taken down thrice in her last two fights. Against Gadelha, she won’t be comfortable on the canvass. So unless she keeps the fight on her feet for fifteen minutes, I don’t see how she can topple Gadelha who hasn’t lost in Brazil.

It’s not going to be a walk in the park but we’re picking Claudia Gadelha to beat Karolina KowalKiewicz.

UFC 209: Tyron Woodley vs. Stephen Thompson Odds and Prediction

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Five rounds weren’t enough to get a winner. Now the UFC adds another five more.

Four months after they figured in a controversial majority draw at the historic UFC 205 last November, UFC welterweight champion Tyron Woodley and top contender Stephen Thompson go at it again. This time, the welterweight pair will be the headliner of UFC 209 at Las Vegas’ T-Mobile Arena.

Controversial Draw

Woodley won the UFC welterweight title with a dramatic first round knockout of Robbie Lawler at UFC 201 in July of 2016. He retained the belt with the controversial draw against Wonderboy in November. But retaining the title won’t be enough for the Chosen One. Woodley plans on giving Wonderboy the worst beating of his career.

After their first bout, Thompson was immediately campaigning for a rematch. Woodley on the other hand, tried to lure the UFC into booking him big fights with GSP or Nick Diaz. In the end though, Dana White felt the two needed five more rounds to settle the score. They were booked to be the main event of UFC 209 on March 4th in Sin City.

The Odds

Stephen Thompson opened as a -120 favorite while the champion Woodley opened at even money. The current money lines haven’t changed much with Thompson fluctuating from -120 to -135 and Woodley from even money to +105. Woodley won’t like these numbers but these are better than the +120 and +140 with which he opened and closed during their first bout. However, it’s still surprising how Woodley is the underdog considering what transpired during their first meeting.

Woodley outstruck Thompson 113-60 in total strikes and 61-43 in significant strikes. He was also able to take Thompson down once and nearly submitted Wonderboy at one point in the bout. Many observers felt Woodley won and got the raw deal from the judges. Not only did he land more shots, he was the one who connected with the more telling blows.

More Well Rounded

Despite getting only a draw from the judges, Woodley erased the doubts on his cardio and his ability to mix it up with a premiere striker like Stephen Thompson. Not only did he take Thompson’s strikes well, but he also showed that he was the more well-rounded fighter.

Nothing much changes here, especially since their last fight was only last November. Sure, Wonderboy will make adjustments, but so will Woodley. Overall, we see Tyron Woodley as the better all-around fighter and Wonderboy the more flashy striker. Look for Woodley to shoot for more takedowns in the rematch. He had Thompson in a whole lot of trouble on his back. Wonderboy won’t be easy to beat though, even on the ground. But Woodley is going to hack out a decision win in this fight. It’s going to be close, perhaps a split decision. But Woodley should get the win this time around.