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Cody Garbrandt vs. T.J. Dillashaw Odds and Prediction

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Cody Garbrandt defends his UFC bantamweight title for the first time against former champion and ex-teammate T.J. Dillashaw at UFC 217 on November 4th, 2017 at the Madison Square Garden in New York.

No Love Lost

Garbrandt’s nickname is ‘No Love’ and there is absolutely no love lost between these two former Team Alpha Male teammates. It can be recalled that Dillashaw left Team Alpha Male during his peak and title reign while Garbrandt won the belt from Dominick Cruz, the man who narrowly defeated Dillashaw in 2016.

These two former friends and now bitter rivals were originally slated to fight at UFC 213, but after Garbrandt suffered a back injury in May, it was rebooked for the MSG event on November 4th, 2017. It may no longer be the main event of its new schedule but it’s a fight that could steal the thunder from the entire event.

Both fighters have expressed their intention to book a superfight with UFC flyweight king Demetrious ‘Mighty Mouse’ Johnson so that should be an added motivation to win this fight. More than that, though, it’s pride and hate that drives these two elite bantamweights against each other.

Recipe For A Classic

The champion Garbrandt is the obvious favorite (-185 at Bovada) against the ex-champion Dillashaw, who is currently at +150. It doesn’t get any better than this. These are two of the best fighters in the bantamweight division and they absolutely hate each other.  You can’t really find a better recipe for a UFC classic.

Dillashaw has the longer reach and the versatility as a fighter but Cody Garbrandt has the edge in power and athleticism. Both fighters can push the pace for five rounds – no doubt about that – so this could very well go the distance.

In terms of numbers, Dillashaw has the edge, as he lands 5.38 significant strikes per minute, compared to Garbrandt’s 3.58. He also has the slight edge in accuracy at 41% vs 37%.

T.J. also has the better grappling stats with an average of 1.8 takedowns per 15 minutes as compared to Garbrandt’s 1.19. But the most important stat in this match should be Garbrandt’s 82% knockout ratio.

Power is Difference Maker

The champion has stopped 9 of 11 opponents with three of his last four victories coming by way of first round knockout. No doubt Dillashaw is an elusive target who is hard to hit much more knock out, but the same was said of Dominick Cruz before Cody Garbrandt pick Cruz apart at UFC 207.

Garbrandt has shown few weaknesses so far but Dillashaw being a former teammate may know some things that we don’t which he can exploit. Otherwise, it’s hard not to pick Cody Garbrandt in this match-up.  Dillashaw might want to take this fight to the ground to negate Cody’s power punches but Garbrandt has superb takedown defense.

On the feet, this should be an equal battle but Garbrandt’s power should be the difference maker here. We’re going with the champion Cody Garbrandt to win by a close unanimous decision.

UFC 216 Odds and Prediction: Fabricio Werdum vs. Derrick Lewis

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Former UFC heavyweight champion Fabricio Werdum squares off against the 7th ranked Derrick Lewis at UFC 216 at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas Nevada on October 7th, 2017.

Coming From Losses

Werdum is coming off of a majority decision loss to Alistair Overeem but remains one of the most dangerous fighters in the UFC’s heavyweight division with his elite grappling and improved striking game.

Lewis is also coming off a loss. The Black Beast lost steam and got knocked out by Mark Hunt at UFC Fight Night 110 last June. He announced his retirement after the bout but has since changed course. Now, Lewis tries to avoid losing back to back fights for the first time in his career. It won’t be easy at all.

Dictating The Fight

Werdum is the favorite here at -250. Lewis, meanwhile, is the slight underdog at +195. This should go down to whoever can dictate the fight and make his opponent fight his style.

Werdum is perhaps the best grappler and submission artist in heavyweight history so it would be prudent for him to take this fight to the ground. Werdum’s striking has improved since his title run but we saw what happened when he stood in front of a heavy hitter like Stipe Miocic.  Derrick Lewis has the same kind of punching power, or even better.

Fourteen of the Black Beast’s 15 wins have come via knockout and only four of his total fights have gone the distance. So, either way, Derrick Lewis is going to come out swinging for the fences against Werdum. There is no doubt that if Lewis can connect, Werdum is definitely going to sleep.

Prediction

Werdum, meanwhile, will try to avoid the Miocic mistake. Because he is the best grappler and submission artist in heavyweight history, he will most certainly try to slow down Lewis by taking the fight to the ground where he is an expert. But Lewis may not be easy to put on the canvas.

The Black Beast is 260 pounds and has good takedown defense. Werdum also has to be wary about Lewis’ reach which is two inches longer than his. If Werdum can’t take this fight to the ground, he’s going to have to eat monster punches from the Black Beast.

This could go either way, really. But we’re picking Derrick Lewis to win this one by stoppage. I just don’t see Werdum taking him to the ground. Lewis’ is the longer man by two inches. He also has the heavier hands. Derrick Lewis by late knockout.

Tony Ferguson vs. Kevin Lee Odds and Prediction

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Tony Ferguson and Kevin Lee fight for the interim UFC lightweight title at the main event of UFC 216 at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada on October 7th, 2017.

Ferguson vs. Lee remained the headliner despite the UFC adding of the flyweight title bout between champion Demetrious ‘Mighty Mouse’ Johnson and Ray Borg to the card. That bout was supposed to headline UFC 215 but Borg pulled out of the fight due to injury. As it stands, the interim 155-pound title bout between El Cucuy and the Motown Phenom remains as the main event.

Interim Title Bout

With Conor McGregor taking the rest of the year off, top ranked lightweight Khabib Nurmagomedov has laid low since pulling out of his UFC 209 showdown with Ferguson due to a botched weight cut. Because of those developments, the UFC decided to keep the lightweight division active by ordering the 2nd ranked Ferguson and the #7 guy Lee to fight for the interim belt.

Ferguson has won an incredible 9 fights in a row and is coming off a decision win over former champion Rafael Dos Anjos last November. Lee, meanwhile, has won five consecutive fights, with four coming by stoppage. In his most recent bout, his first headliner, the 24-year old Lee submitted veteran Michael Chisea.

Equally Matched

Ferguson is favored over Lee at -225 against +175 odds at Bovada and most other UFC betting sites. It doesn’t get any better than this for the UFC. These are two equally matched fighters who can hold their own on the feet, in the clinch or on the canvass. It’s hard to pick a winner here because you can make a claim for either side.

Ferguson is a volume striker who has knockout power and who can submit his opponents on the ground. He’s one of the more conditioned fighters in the game and can win anywhere. Six of his last nine wins have come via stoppage.

Takedowns Are Key

Kevin Lee hasn’t lost since his 2015 defeat to Leonardo Santos. Lee is a strong athlete who takes the fight wherever he wants to and win there. He is an underrated striker but his bread and butter are his takedowns and submissions. He has nine takedowns in his last three fights with each of those bouts ending via stoppage.

Ferguson has been in superb form lately but Kevin Lee’s takedowns and superior strength should be the key here. Look for Lee to drag El Cucuy down and derail him from his game plan. Ferguson is excellent on the ground but Lee may be too strong for him on the canvass. It will be hard to stop Tony Ferguson but Kevin Lee will settle for scoring big takedowns. We’re picking Kevin Lee to win by decision or late submission.

MMA Predictions: Amanda Nunes vs. Valentina Shevchenko Odds and Preview

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Amanda ‘The Lioness’ Nunes defends the UFC women’s bantamweight title against Valentina ‘The Bullet’ Shevchenko at UFC 215 at Rogers Place in Edmonton, Canada on September 9th, 2017.

Keep our Fingers Crossed

The rematch between these two bantamweights is finally happening. But still, let’s keep our fingers crossed.

These two were supposed to headline UFC 213 last month but after making weight, Amanda Nunes inexplicably pulled out of the fight after she ‘fell ill’ and despite being cleared by UFC doctors to fight. And despite criticisms, she wasn’t stripped of her belt and the fight was rebooked to UFC 215.

Nunes beat Shevchenko by unanimous decision during their first meeting at UFC 196. But during that fight, Shevchenko finished strong and exposed a lot of holes in Nunes’ game. Nunes went on to become world champion and Shevchenko rose from the ranks by beating the likes of Holly Holm and Julianna Pena.

Lines Have Changed

Nunes opened as a -125 favorite against Shevchenko’s +105 when this rematch was first scheduled for UFC 213. This time around, the lines have changed and it’s Valentina Shevchenko at -125 and Amanda Nunes at +105.

No doubt this is going to be another dogfight between these two strikers. Amanda Nunes is a fantastic finisher with her fists, having stopped 13 of 14 opponents. But the one opponent she couldn’t finish was, well, Valentina Shevchenko.  During their first fight, Nunes started out fast but lost steam in the end. She walked away with the victory but not after getting pummeled by the Bullet.

Mental Edge

Shevchenko may not have Nunes’ power but she has the more diversified attack, thanks to her Muay Thai background. Shevchenko is patient and calculated and she has the counter striking skills to frustrate Nunes. Nunes has the edge in power and athleticism here. But when it comes to skill, technique and more importantly cardio, it’s Shevchenko.

You got to wonder why Nunes pulled from UFC 213 when she was cleared by the doctors. Well, she said she felt ill. But if she was, then why was she cleared to fight? Something tells me Nunes is sick with Valentina-itis. The Bullet is inside her mind. That mental edge could be a big factor in this fight. So will be Valentina’s cardio, skill level and counter striking. We’re picking Shevchenko to become the new UFC women’s bantamweight champion.

UFC Fight Night 115: Will the Skyscraper Remain Unbeaten in Rotterdam?

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Stefan Struve is unbeaten in Rotterdam. In 2008, Struve submitted Ralf Wonnik via armbar in just 15 seconds. Two fights ago at UFC Fight Night 87, Struve knocked out Antonio ‘Bigfoot’ Silva in just 16 seconds.

On September 2nd, 2017, Struve looks to add yet another spectacular win in front of his countrymen as he faces Alexander Volkov in the main event of UFC Fight Night 115 at Ahoy Rotterdam in Rotterdam, Netherlands.

The Skyscraper

Struve is known as the Skyscraper because at 7 feet, he is the tallest fighter on the UFC’s roster. After losing three of four fights, Struve had a good 2016 where he went 2-0. He was supposed to fight Junior Dos Santos at UFC Fight Night 105 last February but was forced out of the bout because of a shoulder injury.

Alexander Volkov is the current M-1 Global heavyweight champion. The 28-year old Russian is a former Bellator heavyweight tournament winner and heavyweight champion. He is unbeaten in the UFC at 2-0 and he is coming off a unanimous decision win over Roy Nelson at UFC on Fox 24 last April.

Odds

Volkov is the slight favorite here at -135 and Struve is the underdog at +105 at Bovada. Not many heavyweights can stand and trade with Struve because of his height and length but in this case, Volkov can hold his own because he is 6-7 with long arms. Having said that, size may not be a factor here even if Struve is still taller. However, the big difference here is Struve’s ability to finish the fight on the ground.

Volkov has been taken down in each of his last fights and if Struve can force him to the ground, he will not only be taken out of his comfort zone but Struve will have the big advantage there. Seventeen of Struve’s 28 wins have come via submission so if he can put Volkov down, he’s got a bag of submission tricks at his disposal.

Prediction

The problem with Struve is that his chin has always been suspect. Six of his losses are by knockout and Volkov has a 65.28% KO rate with 18 KOs in 28 victories. If Volkov can stay on his feet for most of the fight, he’ll likely get the better of the Skyscraper.

Struve is 7-1 in the Netherlands and 2-0 in Rotterdam. He has always fought well in front of his countrymen and this one should be no different. Volkov is an excellent fighter but Struve is a tried and tested veteran. Of course, the four inch reach and five inch height difference is still there. And yes, Struve’s submission skills should be the key. We’re picking Stefan Struve to pull of the upset by decision or submission.

Bellator MMA

Bellator 182: Can Andrey Koreshkov Avoid Back to Back Defeats?

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Former Bellator welterweight champion Andrey Koreshkov returns to the cage against rising contender Chidi Njokuani at the main event of Bellator 182 on August 25th, 2017 at the Turning Stone Resort Casino in Verona, New York.

Koreshkov is coming off a first round knockout loss during his rematch with Douglas Lima at Bellator 164 last November. The loss was only the second in 21 fights for Koreshkov and his first since 2013. Not only did the loss snap the Spartan’s six fight winning streak, it also stripped him of the title he won from Lima in 2015.

Losing The Rematch

Koreshkov won the Bellator welterweight title with a five round unanimous decision win over Douglas Lima at Bellator 140. After an impressive first title defense against former UFC lightweight champion Benson Henderson at Bellator 153, Koreshkov faced Lima in a highly anticipated rematch and lost the fight.

After a tactical first couple of rounds, Koreshkov and Lima stood toe to toe against each other in Round three. After it appeared that Koreshkov hurt Lima during the fierce exchange, the former champion unleashed a deadly counter left hook that knocked Koreshkov out cold. The loss was only Koreshkov’s second defeat but both losses have been by knockout.

Chidi Bang Bang

Njokuani, the brother of former UFC fighter Anthony, isn’t known as ‘Chidi Bang Bang’ for nothing. The 28-year old Nigerian-American has a 58% knockout ratio with 10 KOs in 17 wins. He has not lost since 2013 and is coming off a unanimous decision win over UFC veteran Melvin Guillard. Prior to that, Njokuani destroyed Andre Fialho in 21 seconds at Bellator 167.

Njokuani relies on his kickboxing base and utilizes kicks to slow down his opponents and score knockouts ( he has four KOs via leg kicks or knees ). Although he is known more for his kicks, Njokuani can also hold his own with his punches. In fact, he’s never been knocked out before as all of his six losses have been by decision.

Odds and Prediction

Former champion Koreshkov is the betting favorite here at -325, while Njokuani is the underdog at 255. There is more pressure on Koreshkov to win as he has not lost back to back fights in his career. Both of these fighters will be fighting in New York for the first time and it will be interesting to see who does better in their Big Apple debut.

This is a good fight between two athletic specimens who both love to fight on their feet. If you take a look at their losses, neither of these two guys have lost by decision. Both love to win by knockout but while Koreshkov always looks for the quick stoppage, Njokuani is like a surgeon who wears his opponents out before finishing them.

We’re picking Koreshkov, though, because we don’t think Njokuani can take the pressure of the Spartan. Koreshkov is more powerful and has a more diverse attack. We’re picking Andrey Koreshkov to win on points.

UFC Fight Night 108: Artem Lobov vs. Cub Swanson Odds and Prediction

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Artem Lobov asked for Cub Swanson and he got the fight. Now Swanson wants to shut his mouth.

Teach Him Some Manners

Lobov began calling out Swanson after watching the UFC’s 4th ranked featherweight slug it out with Korean top prospect Doo Ho Choi at UFC 206 in one of 2016’s best and most exciting fights.  It didn’t take long for Swanson to notice the call out and the tough as nails fighter immediately agreed to face Lobov at the main event of UFC Fight Night 108 at the Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tennessee on April 22nd, 2017.

Fighting an unranked opponent doesn’t really makes sense for Cub Swanson and it is indeed a huge risk for him. But he said he’s got to teach Lobov some manners for calling him out on social media.

Better Fighter

Swanson averages 3.67 significant strikes per minutes as compared to Lobov’s 2.67. The American is also the more accurate striker at 46.9% versus 40.4%. On the ground, Swanson also has the better numbers at 1.3 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. Lobov averages just 0.40 takedowns over the same period. Having seen the numbers, Cub Swanson is definitely the better fighter between these two.

The concern with Swanson, though, is that he has been submitted five times in his career. But Lobov may not have the ground game to submit him as the SBG Ireland product only has two of thirteen wins by submission.

The Odds

Top UFC betting sites like Bovada have Cub Swanson as the favorite here at -600 odds and Lobov the underdog at +400.

Consistency has been a problem for Lobov as he has been hit or miss in recent years. He is coming off a November victory over Teruto Ishihara and an August win over Chris Avila but in the longer term, he’s just split his last 14 bouts. There is nothing really special about Lobov’s game. He isn’t a knockout artist or a submission specialist. 7 of his 13 wins are by decision. He’s always just smart enough to find ways to win fights on points. And yes, he hasn’t fought top level competition yet so he is untested.

Swanson’s resume meanwhile is a who’s who of the division. He may have lost several fights to big named fighters but the experience difference between him and Lobov is too much. Likewise, Swanson has won 8 of his last 10 bouts and has been one of the more consistent fighters in the division. He may be 33 years old but we didn’t saw any signs of that during his back and forth Fight of The Year candidate against top prospect Doo Ho Choi at UFC 206 which he won by the way.

Not only  is Swanson more experienced and consistent, he also has the advantage in power, striking and conditioning. Given all his edges, we’re picking Cub Swanson to win convincingly over Artem Lobov.

UFC Fight Night 108: Al Iaquinta vs. Diego Sanchez Odds and Prediction

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Al Iaquinta makes his long awaited octagon return against one of the UFC’s most grizzled veterans in Diego Sanchez at UFC Fight Night 108 at the Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tennessee on April 22nd.

Rage Stopped

Iaquinta was one of the UFC’s up and coming stars when he suddenly disappeared from the radar. Prior to that, the man known as ‘Raging’ won four straight bouts including three against highly touted foes in Ross Pearson, Joe Lauzon and Jorge Masvidal. But the rage stopped as injury and a contract dispute forced Iaquinta out of the octagon during the last two years.

Iaquinta’s MMA stock dropped with the layoff and he is now just #14 in the UFC’s crowded lightweight division. Needing to make up for lost time, Iaquinta prepares to fight for the first time in Tennessee and his opponent is will be one of the most recognizable faces in the promotion.

The Ultimate Fighter

While Raging Al was in the freezer, Diego Sanchez fought four times, going 2-2 during that period. In his most recent bout, Sanchez beat Marcin Held by unanimous decision at the TUF Latin America 3 finale last November.

Sanchez’s reputation has always preceded him. Since winning the inaugural season of the Ultimate Fighter, we’ve seen Sanchez in some of the most gruesome performances ever inside the UFC octagon. His toughness isn’t to be denied and his penchant to dive deep into wars is what makes him ever dangerous.

Experience vs Consistency

Diego has been hit and miss lately, though, splitting his last 14 outings. Although he’s coming off a victory over Marcin Held, he’s not won back to back fights since 2011. At 36, he is obviously past his prime and on the way down. But having a decorated veteran with plus money always makes an interesting bout to bet on and this one is no exception. Most UFC betting sites have Sanchez as a +285 underdog here, while the favored Iaquinta is at -350.

Sanchez has the experience advantage here and Iaquinta is coming off of a layoff. Diego’s takedowns are a threat and you can’t discount his submission skills. He’s going to take this deep in the trenches and hope that Iaquinta’s inexperience and ring rust will be exposed.

This is Iaquinta’s first bout in two years and that is another cause of concern. But ring rust aside, Iaquinta may be nearing his prime. He’s got pop in his strikes and has shown he can win an ugly grinder, too. Diego Sanchez is a tantalizing pick, really. But given Al Iaquinta’s consistency, we don’t think ring rust will matter here. We’re picking him to beat Sanchez here.

UFC on Fox 24: Ronaldo Souza vs. Robert Whittaker Odds and Prediction

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Two of the UFC’s top welterweight collide in the under card of UFC on Fox 24 on April 15th, 2017 at the Sprint Center in Missouri.

3rd ranked Ronaldo ‘Jacare’ Souza takes on the red hot 6th ranked Robert Whittaker in a bout that could cement a title shot for Souza or push Whitaker amongst the middleweight elites.

Waiting For His Shot

Jacare has been waiting for his title shot for too long and despite the controversial loss to Yoel Romero, this is the man who is the most deserving to face Michael Bisping for the belt. But with GSP given that opportunity now, Souza has decided to keep himself busy. And he’s decided to do so by taking a fight against one of the more dangerous punchers in the division.

Robert Whitaker’s move to middleweight has paid off, so far. After going 3-3 in his last six welterweight bouts, the hard hitting Australian moved up in weight class in 2014. Since then, he’s won five fights in a row with three stoppages. All three stoppages have earned him post fight bonuses.  Whitaker is coming off a win over the equally powerful Derek Brunson but he’s definitely moving to a higher level fighting one of the best middleweights ever in Jacare Souza.

The Odds

Jacare is currently a -245 favorite against Whittaker who is at +185. You can make a good argument for either fighter because both are currently on a good run.

Although he’s already 37 years of age, Jacare Souza is a prime example of consistency. Since losing to Luke Rockhold in his UFC debut in 2011, Souza has gone 10-1 with his only defeat the controversial split decision loss to Yoel Romero at UFC 194. Souza is considered one of the best grapplers in the sport with 70% of his victories ( 17 out of 24 ) coming by submission.

Robert Whittaker has powered his way to five straight wins in the middleweight division. But even if he’s coming off an explosive first round TKO of Derek Brunson, he hasn’t stepped inside the octagon with a highly decorated Jiu Jitsu practitioner like Ronaldo Souza. Sure, Whitaker possesses tremendous punching power and high volume striker but Jacare has seen it all inside that Octagon.

The Prediction

The main concern here is that Souza is making a quick return fight because he just fought last February. But given his track record, that should not be a problem. Souza’s age may sound like a red flag too as he could as they say grow old overnight during this fight. Given his consistency though, that’s unlikely.

Souza’s grappling skills meanwhile could be a big problem for Whittaker. Look, Robert Whittaker has good grappling and can win an ugly fight on the ground. It’s just unlikely he can do it against a true middleweight elite who has multiple Jiu Jitsu and grappling world titles on his resume. Souza’s grappling is second to none. It should be the key here. We’re picking Ronaldo Souza to beat Robert Whittaker.

UFC Fight Night 104: Dennis Bermudez vs. Chan Sung Jung Odds and Prediction

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One of the UFC’s most charismatic fighters returns to the octagon after a three-year absence.

Zombie Returns

South Korean featherweight Chan Sung Jung will make his UFC return on February 4th at UFC Fight Night 104 at the Toyota Center in Houston, Texas. Known as the Korean Zombie for his uncanny ability to take heavy punishment, Jung left the UFC in 2013 in order to serve his two year mandatory military service to his home country. Jung hasn’t fought since his failed title bid against Jose Aldo at UFC 163.

Meanwhile, Dennis Bermudez will be getting his first main event appearance against the Korean Zombie. A finalist in The Ultimate Fighter 14, Bermudez is 2-2 in his last four bouts but has won two fights in a row. The Menace is coming off decision wins over Tatsuya Kawajiri and Rony Jason and will be looking to improve his current #9 ranking in the UFC’s 145 pound division. Jung is unranked but don’t let that deceive you.

Choke Artist?

Current odds have Bermudez a slight -135 favorite over Jung’s +123. The reason is likely the Korean Zombie’s three-year hiatus from the sport. On the other hand, Bermudez has won two in a row with both wins coming in 2016. However, Bermudez hasn’t had a really meaningful win since beating Max Holloway by split decision at UFC 160 in 2013. Prior to his win streak, he lost by stoppage to Ricardo Lamas and Jeremy Stephens.

Bermudez likes to wear his opponents down and beat them in a grinder. But while he’s an excellent wrestler, he doesn’t have good submission defense. Four of his five losses have actually come by submission. The problem here is that Chan Sung Jung is a submission artist, with 9 of his 14 wins by submission. It’s interesting to note that three of Bermudez’s four submission losses were via chokes and five of Jung’s nine submission wins were by chokes, too.

The Pick

Bermudez has a feared ground and pound game but remember he lost the TUF 14 tournament after getting caught with an armbar while hammering Diego Barandao. Having said that, the Korean Zombie should have the advantage if this fight goes down to the ground.

On their feet, Jung is the better striker and has the physical advantages over Bermudez at three inches in height and six inches in reach. Given the plus money, I’d risk the Zombie’s ring rust and pick him to submit Dennis Bermudez for the victory.