Tag Archives: NBA Betting

2017 NBA Odds: Predicting Which Teams Will Win Every Division

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The 2016-17 NBA season seems fairly predictable at first glance. If you’re looking down one scope, that’s probably true. In the end, we’re almost certainly headed for a third straight NBA Finals between the Cleveland Cavaliers and Golden State Warriors.

Tim Duncan’s retirement hurt the Spurs, Kevin Durant going to Golden State hurt the Thunder and there just isn’t a viable contender that could dethrone the Cavs out of the Eastern Conference. If your long game when it comes to NBA betting is coming up with a sleeper NBA Finals winner – or just anyone not named the Cavs or Dubs – you’re probably wasting your time.

There are other ways to make good on some NBA bets, however. Betting daily on individual NBA games and props is one route, but the other could be correctly predicting the division winners in the divisions not dominated by the Cavaliers and Warriors.

Truth be told, we can safely write off anyone else from winning the Central Division or Pacific Division in 2017. Going with the Bucks at +5000 or the Suns at +20000 sure seems like fun, but those aren’t just not happening – they won’t be close.

Instead, let’s focus on the following divisions and see if some intriguing bets could pay off:

Atlantic Division

  • Celtics -105
  • Raptors +105
  • Knicks +1000
  • 76ers +10000
  • Nets +10000

Toronto won this division the past three years straight, yet for some reason Boston is favored at Bovada and other sports betting websites. Right there you’re getting a mild NBA betting edge, so we could stop short at throwing down a big bet on the Raptors winning the division again.

Boston did get better by adding Al Horford, but Toronto is still the best team in this division. In fact, if you’re going to bank on someone improving, you might as well take the odds the Knicks get and see if the additions of Derrick Rose, Courtney Lee and Joakim Noah can help them jump back into the playoffs.

Toronto is probably winning this division, but if you’re not betting on them, shoot high with the Knicks.

Northwest Division

  • Thunder +250
  • Blazers +260
  • Jazz +260
  • Timberwolves +333
  • Nuggets +3000

This division could actually be wide open this year. OKC ran away with it last season, but Kevin Durant and Serge Ibaka are gone. That hits them on both ends of the court, and while we wouldn’t exactly bet against Russell Westbrook, there is a very compelling argument that this team could regress a bit.

That could make for just enough regression to make the Jazz or Blazers interesting bets in this division. Utah is looking like a roll of the dice given their health, as Gordon Hayward (finger), Derrick Favors (knee), Alec Burks and even Rodney Hood have already started the year off all banged up. Portland, then, may be the sexier play, especially after getting a little deeper by adding glue guys like Evan Turner and Festus Ezeli.

We can’t completely ignore Denver or Minnesota, either, as they round out what is quickly looking like an extremely deep and possibly very competitive division. Karl-Anthony Towns could push the Wolves to new heights, while Denver has a ton of offensive talent that is really exciting.

This is undeniably a fun division, but much like a year ago, it’s OKC’s to lose. It’s a legit tie between Utah and Portland as the second best team here, and for now we’d give the edge to the Blazers. But if we’re betting here, the Thunder is the only team that makes good sense with these odds.

Southeast Division

  • Hawks +180
  • Wizards +300
  • Heat +350
  • Hornets +350
  • Magic +1600

Here is a division where last year’s winner (Miami) is absolutely due for regression. Miami has a lot of nice young talent and good coaching, but Chris Bosh (blood clots) and Dwyane Wade (free agency) aren’t here anymore. There are even whispers that the Heat could trade Goran Dragic. As if this thing isn’t blown to bits already. Miami is in serious danger of slipping out of the playoff picture entirely, so repeating as the Southeast Division champs just seems like a reach.

Their odds rank third here, though, so perhaps Bovada makes that regression obvious. The same could be the case for the Hawks and Hornets, though, both of which have solid odds to make a run at the division crown. Atlanta added Dwight Howard, but lost Jeff Teague and Al Horford and may not get Kyle Korver back to his 2014-15 form ever again. Unless Dwight is magically the reliable beast he was five years ago, the Hawks are destined to slip a bit.

The same goes for the Hornets, who lost offensive spark Jeremy Lin and big man Al Jefferson. They still have talent and some depth, but they’re just not the same and they’re not feared down low in the least.

This has us really looking at the Wizards rising up and taking over the division with new coach Scott Brooks leading the way. Kelly Oubre Jr. and Otto Porter are developing nicely, Markieff Morris is preparing for his first full season with the Wiz and Brad Beal is healthy. If the Wiz are going to make noise, this is the year.

Orlando actually deserves a big shout out here, both because their +1600 odds could be fun as heck and because they made major efforts to get better. Adding proven coach Frank Vogel was massive, while they also worked hard to improve defensively by bringing in Bismack Biyombo and Serge Ibaka. They lost Victor Oladipo, but they still have Evan Fournier and Nikola Vucevic to pace the offense, as well as a budding versatile stud in Aaron Gordon. If Vogel can find the right mix, this could be a team to monitor.

Honestly, the Wizards look ready to make a big move, so they’re the team we’d eye here. If you’re feeling saucy, however, the Magic could finally be primed for a playoff return and Vogel just might have the thinking bigger. Like, division title, big.

Southwest Division

  • Spurs -750
  • Grizzlies +1200
  • Rockets +1200
  • Pelicans +2500
  • Mavericks +4000

Last, but not least, is the Southwest Division, where Bovada gives zero chance to anyone not from San Antonio. I get that, seeing as the Spurs won a franchise record 67 games last year. They also hypothetically offset the loss of Tim Duncan by bringing in Pau Gasol and honestly, they still don’t have many flaws.

The Spurs defend, they share the ball and they win at home. They also have Kawhi Leonard and LaMarcus Aldridge and can turn to a pretty strong bench in a pinch.

All that being said, they’ve also never really been a title threat without Duncan. There is a severe culture, leadership, etc that exits with him and we can’t ignore that, nor the steady regression of Tony Parker.

If the Spurs can’t get it done (even though they will), this could actually be fairly wide open. New Orleans figures to at least be healthier than last year, Houston’s high octane offense could have them operating as the fastest team in the league, Memphis is healthy again and added Chandler Parsons and the Mavs brought in Harrison Barnes, Seth Curry and Andrew Bogut.

I’m not sure any of this gets any of these teams better than the Spurs, but if there is a sleeper team to bet on here, it’s Houston. Mike D’Antoni made a living during the regular season with an offensive system that puts up points and wins games. The Rockets were also pretty darn good when it was the James Harden show two years ago – a season in which they won this division (gasp!).

James Harden at the point is the right move for what this team is trying to do, and hypothetically at least, a starting five consisting of Eric Gordon, Trevor Ariza, Ryan Anderson and some combination of Nene Hilario and Clint Capela is quite deadly.

The issue with the Rockets is going to be defense across the board, but that may not stop them from getting 60 wins by smoking most teams on a nightly basis.

Ultimately, the Spurs probably win the division, but they’re odds are atrocious for betting purposes. Instead, roll with Houston or aim super high with the Mavs.

NBA Preseason: Daily Fantasy Basketball Advice For Monday, 10/3

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Saturday night was a lot of fun, with the 2016-17 NBA season technically getting started via two preseason games. That tiny two-game slate could have been highly profitable if you used the right sleeper picks, especially considering the Dallas Mavericks sat a lot of their veterans and we saw small minutes out of the Golden State Warriors.

On Monday NBA preseason action returns, with a nice six-game slate to really shake things up. Six games will certainly do the trick, especially when you consider all of the potential inactives, the limited minutes for most of the stars and uncertainty with other guys. We’ll take a look at each game and see which options might be the safest in daily fantasy basketball games on Monday night:

Milwaukee Bucks @ Chicago Bulls

The Bucks and Bulls are both teams in transition, as Chicago brought on Rajon Rondo, Dwyane Wade and Robin Lopez in an attempt to complete a quick rebuild, while Milwaukee looked to be a young team on the rise before losing Khris Middleton (hamstring) for possibly the entire season. Wade debuts for his hometown Bulls, but he nor any of the other starters are expected to play much more than 10-15 minutes.

That brings out a hard fade for all of the regular Bulls, but absolutely puts their bench fodder in play. Solid minutes could be had for talented guys like Jerian Grant, Doug McDermott, Tony Snell, Bobby Portis and Nikola Mirotic. Versatile rookie combo forward Denzel Valentine arguably leads the pack, however, as he can fill up the stat sheet and might even log good minutes at the point.

All of these guys could have some value in Monday’s DFS NBA preseason leagues, but they all also carry risk. The best plays here figure to be McDermott, Portis and Valentine. Portis has double-double talent, McDermott can seriously score the ball and Valentine can do a bit of everything. None of these guys are locks to play much more than 20 minutes, but they look the strongest on the Bulls for this first preseason game.

For Milwaukee, it’s going to be tempting to use Giannis Antetokounmpo, who leads the way tonight as the most expensive option ($9.1k). You needn’t worry about him and his high price tag, though, since he won’t be playing regular minutes and Khris Middleton isn’t there to get easy dimes on wide open jumpers. Giannis should see the ball in his hands a ton this year, but banking on some huge triple-double performance in probably 19-22 minutes is a little silly.

I wouldn’t be interested in most Milwaukee players in a full game setting, so naturally few look overly attractive with their minutes likely diced up. That being said, you can consider the likes of Malcolm Brogdon, Rashad Vaughn, Michael Beasley and perhaps Thon Maker (wrist) if he plays. Maker is probably a reach and Beasley does little other than score the ball, so neither feel overly safe off the bench for the Bucks. Neither do Brogdon or Vaughn, two more guys who mostly score and do little else. Still, they’re fighting for minutes at shooting guard now that Middleton is on the shelf. One of those guys could be worth using. Personally, I probably won’t be willing to find out, but they are GPP fodder, for sure.

Charlotte Hornets @ Dallas Mavericks

Dallas and Charlotte have made their main inactives known early on, so we can go ahead and fade Kemba Walker, Devin Harris, Dirk Nowitzki, Deron Williams and Andrew Bogut on the night. Kemba’s absence could open the door for a little extra run for Ramon Sessions, but most starters are a little risky due to preseason run – especially in the first game. Sessions is in play, along with Nicolas Batum, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Marvin Williams and Roy Hibbert – all of which are starting.

In play, sure, but we’re not really into any of those guys. Not only are they all tough to trust, but they won’t be playing normal minutes. Batum is worth a flier along with Sessions, but overall the main guys in Charlotte feel too risky.

Their bench could produce some DFS NBA goodness, though, especially with Cody Zeller out. That could put Frank Kaminsky on high alert today. Charlotte wants to see the former Badger succeed, while he has a DFS friendly game due to his shooting ability and size. He won’t light the world on fire, but he could grab a few boards, block a shot or two and score 8-10 points. That should make him worthy of a try tonight. Jeremy Lamb and Marco Belinelli will also operate off the bench for the Hornets and could be worth a try if they can get hot. Those guys are a little more volatile, though, so for the Hornets it’s probably Kaminsky or bust for us.

For the Mavs, they’re down a ton of big name veterans, so even though it’s the preseason we’re bound to see good run out of some of their intriguing young talent. Wesley Matthews is one of the few Dallas regular expected to start, along with newly added forward, Harrison Barnes.

You could give either of those guys a look, but the guys we really are into are Dwight Powell, Justin Anderson and Seth Curry. The Mavs want all three to be able to fill roles when needed this year, so getting a good look at them during preseason play makes sense. All three were great in their preseason debuts on Saturday, too, and with so many bodies out, all figure to get good run again tonight. They’re without a doubt the three top NBA DFS plays in this game when you consider the way preseason play goes.

Denver Nuggets @ Toronto Raptors

Denver could be another fun spot to attack some nice, young talent, with guys like Emmanuel Mudiay, Gary Harris, Jamal Murray, Will Barton and Jusuf Nurkic all being in play tonight. Of that group, our favorite plays are Nurkic and Mudiay. Mudiay needs all the time he can get to keep improving as Denver’s lead point guard, while Nurkic also needs work to continue to round into form after an up and down 2015-16 season.

Jamal Murray is very interesting in terms of sheer talent and versatility, but with so many talented wing players in Denver, we’re a little hesitant to pull the trigger in his first pro game. For the most part, we’re sticking to Mudiay or Nurkic when it comes to the Nuggets.

The Raptors played their main guys a bit on Saturday, so it stands to reason they’ll sit or limit some of those guys. Because of that, we’re really only looking at Toronto bench fodder that could step up. Pascal Siakam was solid in his debut this past weekend and he could be in for decent run again tonight. The same goes for Jared Sullinger, who has yet to fully win the starting power forward spot.

This game could be problematic for NBA preseason DFS, so we’re likely sticking with our two favorite Nuggets in this one and fading the Raptors if we can help it.

Orlando Magic @ Memphis Grizzlies

Memphis is expected to sit or limit most of their starters, which could give young guys like Wade Baldwin and JaMychael Green some nice exposure here. Memphis plays slow and defends, which is good in real life but not always great for daily fantasy basketball. We’re not enamored with them tonight, but Baldwin and Green are decent tries.

The real fun could be with the Magic, who will be without Serge Ibaka, Aaron Gordon and Elfrid Payton. D.J. Augustin is mildly interesting as the starter, while guys like Evan Fournier, Nikola Vucevic and Jeff Green deserve cursory glances. The guy you really want to get on is Mario Hazonja, who can stroke it from deep and has the athleticism to be involved all over the place. Orlando wants to see if he can take on a bigger role this year, too, so with some bodies out, he could see some extra run.

San Antonio Spurs @ Phoenix Suns

The Spurs game is another spot where you can safely rule out some key players, as LaMarcud Aldridge, Tony Parker, Patty Mills and Manu Ginobili will all sit this one out. Their official preseason depth chart for this game makes it pretty clear that some key guys will get good run, too:

The guys that stand out the most are rookie Dejounte Murray, Jonathan Simmons and Kyle Anderson. Murray is a terrific scorer who the Spurs want to see work on his decision-making and ability to run an offense, Simmons is a strong scorer and Anderson is a do-it-all combo forward. They’re the three guys to target for San Antonio, as they should return value if they can play to their strengths.

The Suns have plenty of interesting pieces, too, and it begins in a starting lineup that consists of Eric Bledsoe, Devin Booker, T.J. Warren, Jared Dudley and Tyson Chandler. Those guys won’t see normal run in game one, but of that group, Booker and Warren stand out as guys who could make a big impact in a small amount of time. They’re young guys who could use the extra minutes, too, so it’s possible they see a little more run than the other starters.

Phoenix probably won’t run Bledsoe wild after coming off knee surgery, nor will they drive the aging Chandler into the ground. They’ll also want to get a look at big men Dragan Bender, Marquese Chriss and of course, Alex Len. Len feels the safest of that trio, but all three are immensely talented and have upside in the preseason game. Guys like Archie Goodwin and John Jenkins could also make some noise, while rookie point guard Tyler Ulis deserves a long look, as well.

Overall, Booker feels like the safest play for the Suns and it might make sense to stack some of the Spurs guys in this one, instead.

Utah Jazz @ Portland Trail Blazers

Last, but not least, is a matchup between the defensive-minded Jazz and the Blazers. It’s unknown how much of the starters we’ll see in this one, but it could be a good one to fade given the way Utah plays and how the best Portland players might not play very much. That probably has us fading the likes of Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum.

There could be some guys to target here, though, as the Blazers still don’t have their small forward spot figured out. That could mean extra run for guys like Allen Crabbe, Evan Turner and maybe even Moe Harkless. No one else really pops up for the Blazers, unless we here of crazy minutes for sure being handed out tonight.

For Utah, Dante Exum makes his gradual return and could be a fun GPP flier behind George Hill. Utah will also want to figure out if Rodney Hood should be starting over Joe Johnson or not, while versatile big man Trey Lyles can do a lot, regardless of how much time he spends on the floor.

Daily fantasy basketball is understandably a mixed bag during the preseason, as inactives and roles are even less clear than they are at times during the regular season. This makes DFS NBA very risky, so you can’t simply roll with just our opinion or your gut. Make sure you research all of the lineups, injuries, inactives and rotations to see which guys are for sure out, which are battling for a roster spot/position and which are simply camp bodies that are unlikely to make an impact and possibly not even play. If you do all that, you at least give yourself a mild edge in trying to win some cash in daily fantasy basketball preseason games.

For this slate, the first good start is fading the star players, as they’re either going to sit or be pretty limited for the most part. From there, focusing on rookies or young guys trying to earn bigger roles is a good way to go. No matter which way you lean, good luck in your DFS NBA games tonight!

Preseason NBA Betting: Preview and Picks For Saturday’s Games

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The 2016-17 NBA season doesn’t officially start for another month, but it unofficially tips back off this weekend. That’s right, preseason NBA basketball is back this Saturday, with two games getting us back into the swing of things.

Any preseason betting brings some risk, as star players tend to sit out or at best are limited, and you’re betting on young guys you don’t know, playing in games no one really cares about. There is still fun to be had and money to be made, however, so let’s break down both of Saturday’s games and see if anything can point us to a clear (and winning) bet:

Golden State Warriors @ Toronto Raptors

At the time of this writing it’s unclear what the availability of stars like Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green and of course Kevin Durant will be for this game. Considering it’s the first preseason game, Curry is a likely sit candidate and it’s very possible all of these big name Dubs players don’t suit up at all for this meaningless contest.

The Raptors could easily play it that way, too, with stars like Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan tough calls. DeMarre Carroll, one who dealt with a knee ailment all last year, would also be wise to sit this one out.

Needless to say, with so many player statuses up in the air, it’s tough to call this one. Toronto might have a mild edge with this game being in Canada, but Golden State’s depth and system probably win out here. If we’re truly set to see a bunch of bench guys duke it out, we’d have to favor the Warriors, who are among the deepest squads in all of basketball.

Toronto tends to slow things down and me a little more methodical on defense, so we can favor Golden State for the win, but aim for a lower scoring game than we might normally be accustomed to seeing out of the Dubs.

Pick: Warriors 97, Raptors 93

Dallas Mavericks @ New Orleans Pelicans

The story is the same for this game, as guys like Dirk Nowitzki and Anthony Davis will probably sit. Pellies star point guard Jrue Holiday is already away from the team due to health issues with his wife, while combo guard Tyreke Evans won’t play as he continues to rehab an injury. The Pelicans could be in a good spot at home if The Brow does suit up, but their lack of depth could be painfully obvious if he doesn’t play.

Dallas should rest guys who struggle with health, like Deron Williams and Wesley Matthews, but we could see Harrison Barnes make his Dallas debut, as well as Seth Curry. If those two guys suit up, Dallas could get enough offense to snag the win here and get the preseason started off right.

Pick: Mavericks 101, Pelicans 96