Tag Archives: Pittsburgh Steelers

Super Bowl 51 Odds: 3 Sneaky Sleeper Bets to Target

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The NFL playoffs are just around the corner, with all six AFC playoff teams already accounted for going into the final week of the 2016 NFL regular season. Just two NFC playoff spots have yet to be decided and some playoff seeding needs to be finalized, but we are otherwise extremely close to knowing the entire playoff picture that will lead to Super Bowl 51.

It could end up being a wild ride, or the oddsmakers could look like geniuses. As expected, the two teams with the best records in the league – the Patriots and Cowboys – lead the way with the best Super Bowl odds. However, with an increase in wild card teams making deep playoff runs and top seeds rarely battling it out in the big game, it’s fair to wonder which sleeper teams could be the best bets to run the table.

Super Bowl 51 Odds

  • Patriots +190
  • Cowboys +325
  • Steelers +800
  • Packers +900
  • Seahawks +1200
  • Chiefs +1200
  • Falcons +1200
  • Giants +1400
  • Raiders +3300
  • Lions +5000
  • Texans +5000
  • Dolphins +6600
  • Redskins +6600
  • Buccaneers +20000

The Pats and Cowboys make sense as the top two favorites. They’re locked into division titles and both should have the #1 seed in their conference with a path to the Super Bowl going through their respective stadiums. None of that guarantees a trip to Super Bowl 51, but it doesn’t hurt their chances. On top of that, they’re both fantastic football teams that possess balanced offenses and solid defenses.

This might be one of the most wide open NFL playoff pictures we’ve seen in some time, however. Just about every time in this list has an interesting case. Some can light defenses up through the air, others can pound the rock on the ground and a few sport strong to elite defenses.

Seven of the league’s top-10 scoring defenses are in this group, while this list also boasts six of the league’s top-10 scoring offenses. The only teams to grace both top-10 lists are the Patriots and Cowboys, which probably isn’t overly shocking.

Still, the right team catching fire at the right time can be very dangerous. The Packers have won five straight games going into a huge week 17 finale with the Lions. Detroit and Green Bay have both been very dangerous on their home field. Seattle, Oakland and New York (one loss) have also been dominant on their home field. New England, not surprisingly, could end the year as the only team to go 8-0 on their home field.

This is an eclectic group, but no matter the approach you take, these are your options.

If you want to play it safe, Dallas and New England look like logical, reliable bets to at least get to the Super Bowl. The Pats are the favorite and it’s quite likely they get there and win. It’s kind of what they do.

However, where’s the fun fun in that? It could be much more fun (and much more profitable) to feel out that sneaky sleeper that could shock everyone, kind of like the Broncos did last year and the Giants have done in the past.

No Chance

Before we dive into the teams we really need to keep an eye on, let’s kill it for some other franchises that still cling to hope before week 17 comes to an end. The Buccaneers are the first to miss the boat, as they need to win and also require a laundry list of things to go perfectly right for them. It isn’t going to happen, and even on the off chance their miracle arrives, getting into the playoffs doesn’t guarantee them anything. From there they’d have to face a collection of Falcons, Seahawks and/or Cowboys teams that they probably won’t get past when everything is on the line.

Ditto for the Redskins. Kirk Cousins and co. might not even make it past the Giants this week, but if they do, a Packers win keeps them out of the playoffs. Even if Washington wins and Green Bay loses, they can’t be long for the NFL postseason. Cousins and co. sport a potent offense, but their defense doesn’t have enough bite and they’ve been fairly erratic, overall.

Barring a miracle, we can probably mail it in for the Dolphins, Texans and Raiders, too. They’re all down to their backup quarterbacks due to injury (or benching) and they might not have had what it takes to go the distance even before that happened. The lone sleeper there is Oakland, as some experts seem to think Matt McGloin can make some magic happen. We doubt it.

The other team we don’t have much faith in is Detroit. Their offense has been solid through the air, but they’ve struggled to produce any semblance of a running game for years now. They don’t defend well and they also haven’t proven they can win outside of Michigan (just 3-5 on the road).

That’s one piece of data we need to keep in mind, as we’ve see just two Super Bowl winners ever to hoist the Lombardi Trophy despite having a losing record at home or on the road. Since you either need to dominate at home to earn home field advantage or go out on the road to make up for where you went wrong, that tends to prove itself to be fairly accurately.

The jury is still out for the Packers and Giants – both of which can move their road records to 4-4 if they win this week.

Top Super Bowl Sleepers

The Seattle Seahawks would normally be first in line here, but they have a ton of issues that are going to be difficult to overcome. For one, they can’t win on the road. They’ll finish with a losing record away from home this year, plus they don’t protect Russell Wilson very well and they haven’t been elite on the ground. Even their trademark defense has had serious issues ever since star safety Early Thomas broke his leg.

Instead of Seattle leading the pack, the sleeper teams we need to consider betting on to win the Super Bowl are the following:

  • Steelers
  • Falcons
  • Chiefs

No matter what happens this week, all three are in and if things break just right, all three could be division champions with at least one home game. Playing at home may not matter for any of them, of course, as they’ve all proven they can win on the road or at home. They all have their weak points, but Kansas City boasts and elite defense and both the Steelers and Falcons can produce some of the most explosive plays the league has to offer. All three teams tend to play games very tightly and can run the ball when they need to, as well.

Of that trio, it shouldn’t be much of a surprise that the storied Steelers look like the most appealing sleeper. Not only is Pittsburgh battle tested from a tough AFC North division (yes, even in a down year), but they’re also one of the hottest teams in the league right now. It hasn’t always been pretty, but Big Ben and co. will end 2016 with at least 5 wins both at home and on the road and could enter the playoffs with a seven-game winning streak. Should that streak hold, it could end up tying the Pats for the longest current winning streak in the league.

Unlike what figures to be a pretty competitive NFC, the AFC feels watered down, too. Oakland lost Derek Carr, Houston and Miami were powder puff teams to begin with and the defending champion Broncos aren’t even in the playoffs. That very possibly leaves it down to the Steelers and Patriots and we can’t say for sure the Steelers won’t win if we get that meeting in the playoffs.

In fact, the two teams faced off earlier this year with Ben Roethlisberger sidelined due to injury, and New England still only ended up winning a close game 27-16 by tacking on a late score. With the Steelers healthy and red hot, they could be the biggest sleeper to bet on ahead of the start of this year’s playoffs.

While that may be the case, that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t toss a cursory bet or three at some other potential sleepers. After all, the Lions could be in the playoffs even if they lose this week and they’re sporting +5000 Super Bowl odds. Getting in is half the battle and should they magically run the table, they could return $5k for every $100 you bet.

Ultimately, we like the Patriots to pull down another title this year, but Super Bowl betting is always made better when a sleeper or two can break through the ranks. If someone is going to do it, we’d bet on it being Pittsburgh.

Andrew Luck Injury: Colts Could Be Bad Bets Without Quarterback in Week 12

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The Indianapolis Colts could be at a crossroads in week 12, when they prepare to take on the Pittsburgh Steelers. Unfortunately, they mad have to do so without their best player.

Big Injury

Per reports, star quarterback Andrew Luck sustained a concussion in the team’s week 11 win over the Tennessee Titans and is in jeopardy of sitting out this week:

With concussions normally taking almost a week to fully pass, it’s a tough sell for anyone to believe Luck will be under center just four days after he last played. Luck also wasn’t seen at the Colts’ practice facility on Tuesday, giving way to the fear that he indeed is unlikely to suit up in a crucial week 12 contest.

Backup Plan

Should Luck sit out, the Colts would turn to form Green Bay Packers backup passer, Scott Tolzien. Tolzien has just three starts to his name, when he helped replace an injured Aaron Rodgers back in 2014 and put up just one touchdown to five interceptions.

Needless to say, the Colts may not necessarily be in the best of hands for a pivotal week 12 game, where they’ll either ascend to 6-5 and move one step closer to taking over the AFC South, or they will drop to 5-6 and have an even more difficult path to the top of the division. With Luck out, Indianapolis figures to alter it’s game plan, likely leaning hard on Frank Gore and the running game and hoping the defense can come up big against a potent Steelers offense.

Colts Are Bad Bet

The latter isn’t very likely, seeing as Indy’s defense has been inconsistent all season and Pittsburgh sports one of the more talented and explosive offensive units in the entire league.

Indianapolis was already shaping up as a home underdog in this one, as online gambling sites like Bovada had them as a slight +3 underdog. The Steelers (-3) are fresh off a win over the Cleveland Browns and like the Colts, need to keep winning to make sure they can take over first place in their own division – the AFC North.

That plight got a whole lot easier with the Andrew Luck injury news, and if the Colts star quarterback is indeed out for week 12, the betting odds will only grow in favor of Pittsburgh.

Betting sites like Bovada have locked this game as of Tuesday, and will likely wait to adjust the odds until major Andrew Luck news breaks and there is a definitive stance on his week 12 status. Regardless, the Colts are looking like poor bets for the week. Once betting opens back up, heavy action on the Steelers pulling off the road win is both expected and encouraged.

Indy’s Playoff Odds

As they stand, the Colts have one clear path back to the playoffs: winning the AFC South. They certainly got some help in that journey on Monday night, when the Raiders topped the division rival Texans, 27-20. That dropped Houston to 6-4 and with another meeting with the Texans coming up, the Colts might be able to control their playoff fate. A record of 5-5 isn’t an ideal spot through 10 games, however, and not having Luck this week likely makes winning out a major priority.

That’s never an easy task, but it’s something that still could happen for Indy, who seem to be getting hot at just the right time. Missing Luck and losing this one game might not bury them, but it could drop their Super Bowl odds more and suddenly make them a very interesting bet.

Indianapolis isn’t a current threat according to the oddsmakers, as the Colts have weak +2800 Super Bowl odds. It’s actually surprising they’re not even weaker, however, but they’re still playable enough that if they lose this week, bettors could jump on them as an interesting flier bet that actually has a shot at paying off.

For now, it may be a good idea to wait on the Colts’ Super Bowl odds to drop, while avoiding betting on them in week 12.

16 Sleepers to Consider For Monday Night’s Daily Fantasy Football Slate

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If you didn’t cash out in daily fantasy football in week one, your chances aren’t all gone. You can still make up for a bad Sunday with a Monday Night Football double-header, which offers up the potential for thousands to be made if you pick the perfect lineup at DFS sites like DraftKings.

It’s no secret who the top options are and in a slate with just two games (four teams) there are bound to be countless similar DFS lineups unless you find a way to differentiate yourself from the rest of the pack. Everyone will be using most of the studs like Todd Gurley, Antonio Brown and one of Kirk Cousins or Ben Roethlisberger, but to win big you may need to switch things up and roster (or fade) players you normally wouldn’t.

For Monday specifically, we’ve picked out some interesting daily fantasy football sleepers you’ll want to think about before finalizing your roster:

Quarterbacks: Case Keenum (Rams) and Blaine Gabbert (49ers)

Everyone will be all over Ben Roethlisberger and Kirk Cousins, so one strategy may be to hope that game is randomly low-scoring and they both are awful. Then you can pivot to Keenum or Gabbert and hope it’s somehow the exact opposite in the 49ers/Rams game.

Logic does not support that, but week one wasn’t high on logic in a lot of spots. You never know, the Niners could focus solely on shutting down Todd Gurley and Keenum could rip them up through the air. Or maybe the Rams stuff Hyde and go up early and Gabbert throws all night and ends with 300 yards and 2-3 scores.

The beauty could also simply be in the value, as both of these guys are over $2k less than Cousins and Big Ben, so if they’re even remotely close to them in terms of production, you’re saving cash at quarterback and spending on explosive skill position players. Again, it’s a tough sell, but to win a GPP it may be what is necessary.

Running Backs: Chris Thompson, Rob Kelley (Redskins), Shaun Draughn (49ers) and Fitzgerald Toussaint (Steelers)

Again, we all know the elites here: Todd Gurley and DeAngelo Williams. A lot of people will even use Matt Jones and Carlos Hyde (if they’re healthy enough to play). If those guys randomly are out or limited, though, it’s really going to open things up for guys like Thompson, Kelley and maybe even Draughn. Those guys could randomly produce regardless, but the starter ahead of them going down or being limited would be huge.

Of those three, Thompson is the best play, seeing as he’s Washington’s main passing down back, no matter what. If the Redskins fall behind, he could be a huge play tonight.

Toussaint may be the best pivot of all, as D-Will is set for a monster role in Pittsburgh but obviously will need a breather here and there. If that comes near the goal-line or in a passing situation, Toussaint could be a surprise DFS hero.

Wide Receivers: Eli Rogers, Sammie Coates, Darrius Heyward-Bey (Steelers), Kenny Britt, Brian Quick (Rams) and Jamison Crowder (Redskins)

It’s Antonio Brown or bust tonight, quite literally. DeSean Jackson and a few other big names are worth cursory glances, but the only guy most people care about is Brown and then how you fill in your other two receiver spots could end up being a pretty huge deal.

You can do one of two things:

  • Use Brown and he goes nuts and your other receivers also do well
  • Fade Brown and hope he sucks and just use three decent WRs

Both are somewhat feasible, but either way, going against the grain with those other two receivers may be smart – largely because the options after Brown are awful, and also obviously because this slate is so small.

Because of that, all the scrubs you see above are in play. Rogers, Coates and DHB all have more upside than everyone else simply because they seem to have a good matchup and their offense is awesome. Individually, they are all terrible plays, but it’s a good bet one of those three Steelers receivers goes nuts. Markus Wheaton is out, after all.

That being said, don’t sleep on Britt and Quick. Tavon Austin is the big name WR in Los Angeles, but he’s pretty erratic and often does absolutely nothing. Britt has scoring upside as a big-bodied receiver and Quick can make big plays down the field.

For the Redskins, Crowder might be worth a glance if you’re not into paying for D-Jax or Pierre Garcon, only to watch them sack you to the moon and back. His role isn’t very clear, but he could surprise.

Tight Ends: Lance Kendricks (Rams), Vance McDonald (49ers) and Vernon Davis (Redskins)

Kendricks and McDonald do not promote much confidence or DFS upside, but let’s face it, pretty much everyone is going for Jordan Reed tonight. If they don’t, and still maybe even if they do, they might also think they’re cute by going for Steelers tight end, Jesse James.

Obviously those two are far and away the top tight end choices, but what if the Steelers focus on shutting Reed down (or maybe he gets hurt) and James just doesn’t do much? Perhaps a new, enhanced role is all cheap options like McDonald or Kendricks could need. They seem to be entrenched in defensive battles, anyways, so it’s logical to think safety net tight ends could be targeted a bit in the second game of the night.

Then there is Vernon Davis, who seems to have fallen off a cliff but remains the #2 tight end in Washington. He is probably the worst dart ever, but on paper he’s still a good athlete and the Steelers probably won’t be looking at him as a threat. That could make him the perfect weapon in week one and he costs virtually nothing.

Team Defense: Washington Redskins

The Rams are easily the top unit on tonight’s slate (and also the most expensive). The Niners aren’t very good, but they have a good matchup at home, while the Steelers stink against the pass and are on the road against a good offense but stop the run and get sacks.

Needless to say, there is an argument for and against all of those three team defenses, so swinging for the fences with the Redskins (the cheapest defense on tonight’s daily fantasy football slate) might not be that crazy. For one, Washington can be pretty good when their aggressive blitzing works. It doesn’t hurt that the Steelers are without two key offensive weapons in Le’Veon Bell and Martavis Bryant and that new stud corner Josh Norman might do a decent job on Antonio Brown.

If that’s all to be true, the ‘Skins tend to be quite good at home and could pressure Big Ben into some sacks and/or bad decisions. The good news is they don’t even need to rock your world or completely stifle the Steelers. They just need to be passable and good enough to the point where they’re not leaps and bounds worse than the other three available defenses. None of this says that will be the case, but there is some logic supporting it’s plausibility and if you want to win big, going super contrarian in numerous spots is a good idea.