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UFC 205 Betting Odds: Can Raquel Pennington Take Down Miesha Tate?

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Former UFC womens bantamweight champion Miesha Tate returns for the first time since losing her belt to Amanda Nunes at July’s UFC 200. Tate’s UFC 205 opponent will be The Ultimate Fighter alumnus Raquel Pennington who is currently on a three fight winning streak. Coincidentally, Pennington was a member of Miesha’s team in the TUF 18 show.

Odds on Cupcake

Miesha Tate opened as a -275 favorite against Raquel Pennington’s +215. That’s the highest opening odds for Tate since fighting Rin Nakai in 2014. Currently, Tate’s worst-best numbers are -190 to -170 while Pennington’s are +145 and +164, respectively.

Oddsmakers have given this fight a -165 to go the full route and a +165 not to go the distance. That’s despite the fact that Pennington’s last two wins were by decision and four of Tate’s last five victories reached the final horn.

Big Step Up

Having said Tate was Rocky’s coach in the TUF says a lot about the difference in experience between these two female bantamweights. Cupcake Tate is a veteran of 24 fights while Pennington has fought 13 times. But that’s not really the big difference between the two.

It’s the quality of opposition that they’ve faced. Sure, Pennington has faced (and lost to) the likes of Holly Holm and Cat Zingano in the past. But Miesha Tate has almost exclusively fought the upper echelon ladies in the past five years. She’s even captured both the Strikeforce and UFC bantamweight titles along the way.

Having said that, Rocky is a downgrade in opposition for Tate and Tate a big step up for Pennington. This is just an intangible though but one that’s hard to ignore.

Striking Edge

The difference in experience doesn’t mean Pennington cannot win this bout. By all means, Rocky has the edge in the striking department, averaging twice as many strikes per minute as Miesha Tate does at 3.96 versus 1.98.

That difference is huge considering Tate’s 51% striking defense isn’t the best in the business. However, Tate makes up for that with the better grappling game. Cupcake averages 2.15 takedowns per 15 minutes against Pennington’s 1.5. That’s not much but once the fight gets down and ugly, we know that’s where Miesha Tate thrives. At 1.8 submission attempts per 15 minutes, Tate is the more active and aggressive fighter on the ground.  

That said, Pennington has to keep the fight on her feet to maintain her advantage. Not only will she be content with striking from a distance, she’d love to brawl with Tate whom she can easily overpower. That will backfire, though, as Tate is going to put her down as many times as she can and win round after round on top position.

UFC 205: Miesha Tate Returns to Take on Raquel Pennington

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The women are also coming to New York.

As the fight card for the UFC’s maiden appearance in New York slowly unfolds, two high profile women’s bouts have been added to the Madison Square Garden affair as UFC women’s flyweight queen Joanna Jedrzejczyk will defend her title against compatriot Karolina Kowalkiewicz and former UFC womens bantamweight champion Miesha Tate will face Raquel Pennington in a three round affair.

An All Polish Affair

The title bout between Jedrzejczyk and Kowalkiewicz will be the first ever all european bout inside the UFC Octagon. It will also be the biggest MMA match in Poland’s history as both undefeated combatants are Polish. Jedrzejczyk ( 12-0 ) is coming off a thrilling fight of the year candidate against Claudia Gadelha last July.

She is the undisputed queen of the UFC’s 115 women’s division, having won all of her 6 bouts inside the Octagon including four title bouts and three successful title defenses. Former KSW champion Kowalkiewicz (10-0 ) herself is unbeaten in 3 UFC bouts and is coming off an impressive win over Rose Namajunas at UFC 201 to earn this title bout. The two have fought before as amateurs in 2012 and it was Jedrzejczyk who won that bout by submission.

The UFC initially thought of taking this title bout to Poland but with the big event in New York on November 12th and UFC women’s bantamweight champion Amanda Nunes reportedly being eyed for UFC 207, this all Poland title bout was booked to New York instead to give the women a strong representation in the event.

The Jedrzejczyk vs. Kowalkiewicz bout is the second title bout booked to the event. Earlier, the men’s welterweight title will be on the line when Tyron Woodley faces top contender Stephen Thompson.

Return of Cupcake

In the second announced women’s bout, former UFC bantamweight Miesha Tate ( 18-6 ) will make  a quick turnaround following her stunning UFC 200 defeat to Amanda Nunes. Prior to her defeat, Tate won accolades in her come from behind title winning performance against Holly Holm at UFC 196.

The return of Cupcake will be against veteran Raquel “Rocky” Pennington ( 8-5 ) who has won three fights in a row. Pennington was last seen at UFC 202 where she beat Elizabeth Phillips. Coincidentally, Pennington was a member of Team Tate during the Ultimate Fighter 18 in 2013. Now Rocky goes up against her former coach as both fighters look to move up in the women’s bantamweight standings with a big win in Madison Square Garden.

UFC 205 will be on November 12th at the Madison Square Garden in New York. Several bouts have been confirmed for the event although no headliner has been booked yet.