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UFC 207: Amanda Nunes vs. Ronda Rousey Odds and Prediction

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Ronda Rousey challenges Amanda Nunes for the UFC women’s bantamweight title at the main event of UFC 207 at Las Vegas’ T-Mobile Arena on December 30th. The Return is going to be a sight to see.

The Return

Fans have long waited for Ronda Rousey to return and she couldn’t have picked a better date than the promotion’s final event for 2016. Ronda Rousey was the star of stars in the UFC, dominating one opponent after another. The former Olympic Judo bronze medalist won her first twelve bouts by stoppage and nine of them by Armbar tap out. She was on the most dominating championship reign of all-time when Holly Holm knocked her out cold on her feet last year.

Since Rousey lost the belt, it has changed hands after every title bout. Holm was choked out by Miesha Tate at UFC 196, while Take was brutally stopped by Amanda Nunes at UFC 200. Now Nunes is saying that the title belt will remain around her waist for a long time. And based on her more recent outings, she may be correct.

A Powerful Striker

Nunes is known for her punching power and exquisite striking. She averages 4.23 significant strikes landed per minute. On the other hand, Rousey isn’t far behind at 4.05 per minute. Accuracy-wise, both fighters have a similar 52% striking accuracy. The difference between the two, however, is with the strikes absorbed per minute. Rousey take 3.6 strikes per minute while Nunes is hit with just 2.81. Converted to a five round bout, that’s an estimated 13.75 significant strikes. That would be more than enough strikes for Amanda Nunes to knock you out.

On the ground, Rousey is known to be a beast with 6.43 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. Rowdy also averages 4.9 submission attempts per 15 minutes. Both numbers are pretty well better than Nunes’ stats and will be what Ronda’s going to do to beat her opponent. Taking Nunes down may not be easy. Not only is she an excellent striker, she also has an excellent 73% takedown defense. As a comparison, Holly Holm had a 77% takedown defense when she fought Ronda Rousey and the latter couldn’t take her down.

Question Marks

At her best, Ronda Rousey is one of the most dominant female mixed martial artists of her era. But it’s been over a year since she last fought inside the octagon. The last time out, she suffered a shocking loss to Holly Holm at UFC 193. Since that loss, she’s withdrawn from the limelight and has contemplated retirement and worse, suicide. She says she’s over those negative emotions now and that it’s time to get her old belt back. Getting back to dominant Ronda may not be easy. Facing an opponent who’s undoubtedly in the best stretch of her fighting career adds pressure to that. With all the question marks surrounding Rousey’s return and given Nunes’ hot streak, it’s hard not to place your bets on the plus money for Nunes.

Currently Rousey is a -160 favorite while Nunes is a surprise +140 on many books. That’s interesting, considering Ronda’s been out of circulation for over a year and Nunes has been beating top level opposition. But we know Ronda’s a popular girl so the lines aren’t unexpected at all. However, we know Nunes is going to give Rousey the fight of her life. If Ronda had all sorts of problems with a great striker like Holly Holm, she may be in for a rude awakening against Amanda Nunes. Needless to say, there is enough logic here to have me pick Amanda Nunes to win by knockout.

UFC 207 Odds: Ronda Rousey vs. Amanda Nunes Odds and Preview

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She’s back.

After spending one year away from MMA, former UFC women’s bantamweight champion Ronda “Rowdy” Rousey returns to the octagon on December 30th to face current champion Amanda “Lioness” Nunes in the main event of UFC 207 at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. UFC President Dana White made the ‘major announcment’ at The Herd on Wednesday:

Major Announcement

White’s ‘major announcement’ really didn’t come as a surprise. The signs were leading to it.

Last month, White told Brazilian sports outlet O Globo that a Rousey-Nunes bout was possible before the end of the year. White also said earlier this month that Rousey’s comeback fight would be the biggest PPV the UFC has done. If that wasn’t at UFC 205, where else would that be but at the company’s year end show.

In September, Rousey’s coach Edmond Tarverdyan told reporters that a Rousey vs. Nunes bout was being discussed and that the main issue was Ronda working her way back into form after a minor knee injury in the summer. Apparently, Rousey is better now.

A Better Rousey

After a dominant run as the UFC’s inaugural women’s bantamweight champion, Ronda Rousey suffered a shocking knockout defeat to Holly Holm at UFC 193 last November. Prior to that defeat, Rousey won her first twelve bouts, all by stoppage including 9 by armbar stoppage.

She became a star, both inside and outside the octagon but things came falling down when she was knocked out cold by Holm. The seemingly invincible woman broke down and shunned the limelight. The longer she stayed outside the Octagon, the more people thought she would never fight again. But after a year off, Rousey is back and presumably better not just as a fighter, but also as a person.

The Lioness

Ronda’s opponent couldn’t have been tougher. With Rousey wanting to get her old belt back, she will have to fight the current champion, Amanda Nunes.

The Lioness won the title with a dominant first round KO of Rousey nemesis Miesha Tate at UFC 200. Nunes has a 13-4 MMA record but is an impressive 6-1 in the UFC. Five of those win were by stoppage and Nunes has beaten Shayna Baszler, Sara McMann, Valentina Schevhenko and Tate in succession. She is considered one of the best strikers in the sport and one with genuine KO power.

It can be recalled that Rousey lost to Holm, a former boxing world champion, because the latter had the better striking game. It will be extremely interesting to see how Rousey will deal with an equally versatile striker like Nunes.

Opening as Favorite

Despite her long absence, Ronda Rousey opened as a -200 favorite against Nunes’ +160. Oddsmakers point to Rousey’s popularity as the main reason for these numbers. Nunes has the better striking but the real question is whether she can keep the fight standing up.

Rousey’s power throws and judo are superb and once Rowdy takes the fight to the ground, we know what’s going to happen next. No opponent has ever matched Ronda’s skill on the ground, as she submitted one challenger after another before a much improved striking game saw her self-destruct against Holly Holm.

If Ronda keeps the striking exchanges at a minimal and focuses on grappling and wrestling, she is seen as having the advantage over Nunes. Nunes, meanwhile, must avoid getting her arm exposed on the ground because that’s almost a bait for Rousey.