Tag Archives: Super Bowl Betting

Super Bowl 51 Odds: 3 Sneaky Sleeper Bets to Target

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The NFL playoffs are just around the corner, with all six AFC playoff teams already accounted for going into the final week of the 2016 NFL regular season. Just two NFC playoff spots have yet to be decided and some playoff seeding needs to be finalized, but we are otherwise extremely close to knowing the entire playoff picture that will lead to Super Bowl 51.

It could end up being a wild ride, or the oddsmakers could look like geniuses. As expected, the two teams with the best records in the league – the Patriots and Cowboys – lead the way with the best Super Bowl odds. However, with an increase in wild card teams making deep playoff runs and top seeds rarely battling it out in the big game, it’s fair to wonder which sleeper teams could be the best bets to run the table.

Super Bowl 51 Odds

  • Patriots +190
  • Cowboys +325
  • Steelers +800
  • Packers +900
  • Seahawks +1200
  • Chiefs +1200
  • Falcons +1200
  • Giants +1400
  • Raiders +3300
  • Lions +5000
  • Texans +5000
  • Dolphins +6600
  • Redskins +6600
  • Buccaneers +20000

The Pats and Cowboys make sense as the top two favorites. They’re locked into division titles and both should have the #1 seed in their conference with a path to the Super Bowl going through their respective stadiums. None of that guarantees a trip to Super Bowl 51, but it doesn’t hurt their chances. On top of that, they’re both fantastic football teams that possess balanced offenses and solid defenses.

This might be one of the most wide open NFL playoff pictures we’ve seen in some time, however. Just about every time in this list has an interesting case. Some can light defenses up through the air, others can pound the rock on the ground and a few sport strong to elite defenses.

Seven of the league’s top-10 scoring defenses are in this group, while this list also boasts six of the league’s top-10 scoring offenses. The only teams to grace both top-10 lists are the Patriots and Cowboys, which probably isn’t overly shocking.

Still, the right team catching fire at the right time can be very dangerous. The Packers have won five straight games going into a huge week 17 finale with the Lions. Detroit and Green Bay have both been very dangerous on their home field. Seattle, Oakland and New York (one loss) have also been dominant on their home field. New England, not surprisingly, could end the year as the only team to go 8-0 on their home field.

This is an eclectic group, but no matter the approach you take, these are your options.

If you want to play it safe, Dallas and New England look like logical, reliable bets to at least get to the Super Bowl. The Pats are the favorite and it’s quite likely they get there and win. It’s kind of what they do.

However, where’s the fun fun in that? It could be much more fun (and much more profitable) to feel out that sneaky sleeper that could shock everyone, kind of like the Broncos did last year and the Giants have done in the past.

No Chance

Before we dive into the teams we really need to keep an eye on, let’s kill it for some other franchises that still cling to hope before week 17 comes to an end. The Buccaneers are the first to miss the boat, as they need to win and also require a laundry list of things to go perfectly right for them. It isn’t going to happen, and even on the off chance their miracle arrives, getting into the playoffs doesn’t guarantee them anything. From there they’d have to face a collection of Falcons, Seahawks and/or Cowboys teams that they probably won’t get past when everything is on the line.

Ditto for the Redskins. Kirk Cousins and co. might not even make it past the Giants this week, but if they do, a Packers win keeps them out of the playoffs. Even if Washington wins and Green Bay loses, they can’t be long for the NFL postseason. Cousins and co. sport a potent offense, but their defense doesn’t have enough bite and they’ve been fairly erratic, overall.

Barring a miracle, we can probably mail it in for the Dolphins, Texans and Raiders, too. They’re all down to their backup quarterbacks due to injury (or benching) and they might not have had what it takes to go the distance even before that happened. The lone sleeper there is Oakland, as some experts seem to think Matt McGloin can make some magic happen. We doubt it.

The other team we don’t have much faith in is Detroit. Their offense has been solid through the air, but they’ve struggled to produce any semblance of a running game for years now. They don’t defend well and they also haven’t proven they can win outside of Michigan (just 3-5 on the road).

That’s one piece of data we need to keep in mind, as we’ve see just two Super Bowl winners ever to hoist the Lombardi Trophy despite having a losing record at home or on the road. Since you either need to dominate at home to earn home field advantage or go out on the road to make up for where you went wrong, that tends to prove itself to be fairly accurately.

The jury is still out for the Packers and Giants – both of which can move their road records to 4-4 if they win this week.

Top Super Bowl Sleepers

The Seattle Seahawks would normally be first in line here, but they have a ton of issues that are going to be difficult to overcome. For one, they can’t win on the road. They’ll finish with a losing record away from home this year, plus they don’t protect Russell Wilson very well and they haven’t been elite on the ground. Even their trademark defense has had serious issues ever since star safety Early Thomas broke his leg.

Instead of Seattle leading the pack, the sleeper teams we need to consider betting on to win the Super Bowl are the following:

  • Steelers
  • Falcons
  • Chiefs

No matter what happens this week, all three are in and if things break just right, all three could be division champions with at least one home game. Playing at home may not matter for any of them, of course, as they’ve all proven they can win on the road or at home. They all have their weak points, but Kansas City boasts and elite defense and both the Steelers and Falcons can produce some of the most explosive plays the league has to offer. All three teams tend to play games very tightly and can run the ball when they need to, as well.

Of that trio, it shouldn’t be much of a surprise that the storied Steelers look like the most appealing sleeper. Not only is Pittsburgh battle tested from a tough AFC North division (yes, even in a down year), but they’re also one of the hottest teams in the league right now. It hasn’t always been pretty, but Big Ben and co. will end 2016 with at least 5 wins both at home and on the road and could enter the playoffs with a seven-game winning streak. Should that streak hold, it could end up tying the Pats for the longest current winning streak in the league.

Unlike what figures to be a pretty competitive NFC, the AFC feels watered down, too. Oakland lost Derek Carr, Houston and Miami were powder puff teams to begin with and the defending champion Broncos aren’t even in the playoffs. That very possibly leaves it down to the Steelers and Patriots and we can’t say for sure the Steelers won’t win if we get that meeting in the playoffs.

In fact, the two teams faced off earlier this year with Ben Roethlisberger sidelined due to injury, and New England still only ended up winning a close game 27-16 by tacking on a late score. With the Steelers healthy and red hot, they could be the biggest sleeper to bet on ahead of the start of this year’s playoffs.

While that may be the case, that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t toss a cursory bet or three at some other potential sleepers. After all, the Lions could be in the playoffs even if they lose this week and they’re sporting +5000 Super Bowl odds. Getting in is half the battle and should they magically run the table, they could return $5k for every $100 you bet.

Ultimately, we like the Patriots to pull down another title this year, but Super Bowl betting is always made better when a sleeper or two can break through the ranks. If someone is going to do it, we’d bet on it being Pittsburgh.

2017 Super Bowl Odds: Why We’re Headed For a Patriots vs. Giants Rematch

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The race for the 2017 Super Bowl isn’t yet officially on, but with just two weeks remaining in the 2016 NFL regular season, it certainly is getting close. For all we’ve learned through the first 15 weeks of action, it’s crazy how much is still left up in the air to be decided.

We know that the NFC and AFC are probably running through Dallas and New England, respectively. The Seattle Seahawks and Oakland Raiders are viable threats on either side, but at best, they’re likely the #2 seeds in their respective conferences.

Several divisions have yet to be figured out, however, and that bleeds into a still muddy wild card round. The Cowboys haven’t even officially secured the NFC East, as they got swept by the 10-4 Giants, who still have mild hopes of storming the castle. The Raiders and Chiefs have yet to decide the AFC West, too, while the NFC North, NFC South, AFC North and AFC South are all very much up for grabs. We know Seattle is in as NFC West champs and the Patriots are in as the AFC East winners, but beyond that, these last two weeks of pro football action could be pretty intense.

Even more, the seeding past the divisions could be dicey. As things currently stand, the Dolphins, Steelers, Texans and Chiefs join the AFC side, while the Falcons, Lions, Packers and Giants look to be in on the NFC side. However, given how up in the air everything still is, teams like the Ravens, Titans and Broncos have very realistic hopes of sneaking inside the AFC playoff race. For the NFC, the Buccaneers still have a clear path to the playoffs, while the Redskins are arguably the next team to look at that could mount a realistic run into postseason play.

2017 Super Bowl Odds

The best teams in the league that look locked in naturally have the top Super Bowl odds. Let’s take a look at every team that top gambling sites like Bovada are still giving life as we head into week 16:

  • Patriots +220
  • Cowboys +500
  • Seahawks +550
  • Steelers +1000
  • Raiders +1200
  • Packers +1200
  • Chiefs +1600
  • Falcons +1600
  • Giants +1600
  • Lions +2500
  • Ravens +5000
  • Texans +5000
  • Colts +5000
  • Titans +5000
  • Buccaneers +6600
  • Broncos +6600
  • Dolphins +7500
  • Redskins +10000
  • Vikings +15000
  • Panthers +25000

These are some very interesting Super Bowl odds, but for the most part they are spot on. At the top, New England and Dallas have the best records in football at 12-2 and are borderline locks for the #1 seed in their conference. Vegas obviously wouldn’t be shocked if we ended up getting just out third meeting between #1 seeds in this year’s Super Bowl.

Seattle isn’t a crazy Super Bowl favorite, either, as they still sport an elite defense and have reached two of the last three title games. Pittsburgh has a rich history with a league-leading six Super Bowl titles, plus they were among the preseason favorites to contend for a title. Ben Roethlisberger and co. have been bad on the road this year, though, and haven’t been a very consistent unit.

A Look at the Numbers

It gets a bit cloudy from there, as the Raiders look to be ascending as they’ve hammered down their first playoff appearance in over a decade, while the Packers look to have serious life after getting off to a disastrous 4-6 start.

If we look back at history, though, we can probably start weeding out the pretenders well before the playoffs arrive. For one, the Panthers, Vikings and Redskins all need a ton to go right for them to even have a chance at making the playoffs. We can probably safely rule them all out and as attractive as their Super Bowl odds look, they’re barely worth a cursory bet.

We can go one step further and take a look at two home/away facts. First, just one team in Super Bowl history has ever won it all after posting a losing record at home. The same can be said for road success, as just one other team has ever won a Super Bowl after posting a losing record on the road. Those interesting pieces of information could potentially eliminate Miami, Baltimore, Houston, Seattle, Detroit, Green Bay and Tampa Bay.

As impressive as all of those teams have been in their own regard, they all have a losing record either at home or on the road. For some, that could change before the final two weeks of the regular season are up, and perhaps that propels them into a new light. And we get it; one stat doesn’t guarantee anything. But if that data holds up and we don’t get a second team to defy history, we might as well write these teams off as bad Super Bowl bets right now.

Another interesting fact is that exactly two teams have won the Super Bowl in NFL history when their star running back paces the league in rushing yardage. That figures to be elite rookie rusher Ezekiel Elliott, who plays for the Cowboys. Of course, it was also a Cowboy (Emmitt Smith) who was one of the only two leading rushers to help their teams win the title the year they owned the league.

But say that data holds true. Then the beloved Cowboys wouldn’t be very “super” this year.

Suddenly the favored Patriots look like a pretty locked and loaded bet, and intermediate bets like the Chiefs, Steelers, Falcons and Giants start garnering Super Bowl betting interest.

Super Bowl 2017 Prediction

Of that group, the Patriots are the safe and easy call. The Chiefs, Steelers and Falcons feel harder to trust. Kansas City has a great defense and a balanced offense, but it’s fair to wonder if Alex Smith can get them deep into the playoffs. We know Big Ben can get the Steelers to the promised land. He’s done it thrice. However, Pittsburgh has been very erratic all year and may not have the defense needed to go win a 7th title.

Defense could be what is holding back the Falcons, too, as Matt Ryan is having an MVP-caliber season, but Atlanta still hasn’t consistently performed at a high level on the defensive side.

The scariest team might not be the Patriots, Cowboys or any of the other would-be top contenders. Instead, it might be the New York Giants. New York has been a very sneaky playoff team in past years and we can’t forget how they ran the table to take down a perfect Patriots team back in 2007. Their improved defense is a huge reason why we need to watch out for them, while the connection between Eli Manning and Odell Beckham Jr. is as good as ever.

New York does have one problem, of course: they can’t run the ball.

That could be an issue if they want to go deep, but that defense and their passing game might just be enough to get the job done. There’s something about a Patriots vs. Giants rematch that just feels like destiny this year, too.

Still, in a year with no clear-cut favorite, everything tends to circle back to Tom Brady and the Patriots.

Super Bowl winners tend to dominate at home, nearly 50% are #1 seeds and they also tend to rank in the top-10 in both defensive and offensive scoring. The Patriots answer the bell across the board. They’re undefeated on the road and of their two home losses, one came when Brady was still suspended. They’re set to be the AFC’s top seed and possibly the #1 seed in the league, and they also rank 6th in offense and 1st in scoring defense.

None of that means the Patriots can’t lose or will for sure get to the Super Bowl, but it’s starting to add up to a pretty clear picture. And that’s that the Patriots sure look and feel like the best team in the NFL right now. Vegas can be wrong when it comes to Super Bowl odds, but in a weird season, it feels like they’re getting it right. That could make now the best possible time to bet on the Pats, as their Super Bowl odds will only get less playable from here on out.

Ultimately, we see the Pats going all the way and there Tom Brady and co. will finally exorcise their demons by taking down the Giants to get the 5th Super Bowl in the Bill Belichick/Tom Brady era. It’s not necessarily an ending we all want to see in 2017, but it still will be impressive.

Prediction: Patriots 27, Giants 23