Tag Archives: Tom Brady

2017 Super Bowl Odds: Why We’re Headed For a Patriots vs. Giants Rematch

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The race for the 2017 Super Bowl isn’t yet officially on, but with just two weeks remaining in the 2016 NFL regular season, it certainly is getting close. For all we’ve learned through the first 15 weeks of action, it’s crazy how much is still left up in the air to be decided.

We know that the NFC and AFC are probably running through Dallas and New England, respectively. The Seattle Seahawks and Oakland Raiders are viable threats on either side, but at best, they’re likely the #2 seeds in their respective conferences.

Several divisions have yet to be figured out, however, and that bleeds into a still muddy wild card round. The Cowboys haven’t even officially secured the NFC East, as they got swept by the 10-4 Giants, who still have mild hopes of storming the castle. The Raiders and Chiefs have yet to decide the AFC West, too, while the NFC North, NFC South, AFC North and AFC South are all very much up for grabs. We know Seattle is in as NFC West champs and the Patriots are in as the AFC East winners, but beyond that, these last two weeks of pro football action could be pretty intense.

Even more, the seeding past the divisions could be dicey. As things currently stand, the Dolphins, Steelers, Texans and Chiefs join the AFC side, while the Falcons, Lions, Packers and Giants look to be in on the NFC side. However, given how up in the air everything still is, teams like the Ravens, Titans and Broncos have very realistic hopes of sneaking inside the AFC playoff race. For the NFC, the Buccaneers still have a clear path to the playoffs, while the Redskins are arguably the next team to look at that could mount a realistic run into postseason play.

2017 Super Bowl Odds

The best teams in the league that look locked in naturally have the top Super Bowl odds. Let’s take a look at every team that top gambling sites like Bovada are still giving life as we head into week 16:

  • Patriots +220
  • Cowboys +500
  • Seahawks +550
  • Steelers +1000
  • Raiders +1200
  • Packers +1200
  • Chiefs +1600
  • Falcons +1600
  • Giants +1600
  • Lions +2500
  • Ravens +5000
  • Texans +5000
  • Colts +5000
  • Titans +5000
  • Buccaneers +6600
  • Broncos +6600
  • Dolphins +7500
  • Redskins +10000
  • Vikings +15000
  • Panthers +25000

These are some very interesting Super Bowl odds, but for the most part they are spot on. At the top, New England and Dallas have the best records in football at 12-2 and are borderline locks for the #1 seed in their conference. Vegas obviously wouldn’t be shocked if we ended up getting just out third meeting between #1 seeds in this year’s Super Bowl.

Seattle isn’t a crazy Super Bowl favorite, either, as they still sport an elite defense and have reached two of the last three title games. Pittsburgh has a rich history with a league-leading six Super Bowl titles, plus they were among the preseason favorites to contend for a title. Ben Roethlisberger and co. have been bad on the road this year, though, and haven’t been a very consistent unit.

A Look at the Numbers

It gets a bit cloudy from there, as the Raiders look to be ascending as they’ve hammered down their first playoff appearance in over a decade, while the Packers look to have serious life after getting off to a disastrous 4-6 start.

If we look back at history, though, we can probably start weeding out the pretenders well before the playoffs arrive. For one, the Panthers, Vikings and Redskins all need a ton to go right for them to even have a chance at making the playoffs. We can probably safely rule them all out and as attractive as their Super Bowl odds look, they’re barely worth a cursory bet.

We can go one step further and take a look at two home/away facts. First, just one team in Super Bowl history has ever won it all after posting a losing record at home. The same can be said for road success, as just one other team has ever won a Super Bowl after posting a losing record on the road. Those interesting pieces of information could potentially eliminate Miami, Baltimore, Houston, Seattle, Detroit, Green Bay and Tampa Bay.

As impressive as all of those teams have been in their own regard, they all have a losing record either at home or on the road. For some, that could change before the final two weeks of the regular season are up, and perhaps that propels them into a new light. And we get it; one stat doesn’t guarantee anything. But if that data holds up and we don’t get a second team to defy history, we might as well write these teams off as bad Super Bowl bets right now.

Another interesting fact is that exactly two teams have won the Super Bowl in NFL history when their star running back paces the league in rushing yardage. That figures to be elite rookie rusher Ezekiel Elliott, who plays for the Cowboys. Of course, it was also a Cowboy (Emmitt Smith) who was one of the only two leading rushers to help their teams win the title the year they owned the league.

But say that data holds true. Then the beloved Cowboys wouldn’t be very “super” this year.

Suddenly the favored Patriots look like a pretty locked and loaded bet, and intermediate bets like the Chiefs, Steelers, Falcons and Giants start garnering Super Bowl betting interest.

Super Bowl 2017 Prediction

Of that group, the Patriots are the safe and easy call. The Chiefs, Steelers and Falcons feel harder to trust. Kansas City has a great defense and a balanced offense, but it’s fair to wonder if Alex Smith can get them deep into the playoffs. We know Big Ben can get the Steelers to the promised land. He’s done it thrice. However, Pittsburgh has been very erratic all year and may not have the defense needed to go win a 7th title.

Defense could be what is holding back the Falcons, too, as Matt Ryan is having an MVP-caliber season, but Atlanta still hasn’t consistently performed at a high level on the defensive side.

The scariest team might not be the Patriots, Cowboys or any of the other would-be top contenders. Instead, it might be the New York Giants. New York has been a very sneaky playoff team in past years and we can’t forget how they ran the table to take down a perfect Patriots team back in 2007. Their improved defense is a huge reason why we need to watch out for them, while the connection between Eli Manning and Odell Beckham Jr. is as good as ever.

New York does have one problem, of course: they can’t run the ball.

That could be an issue if they want to go deep, but that defense and their passing game might just be enough to get the job done. There’s something about a Patriots vs. Giants rematch that just feels like destiny this year, too.

Still, in a year with no clear-cut favorite, everything tends to circle back to Tom Brady and the Patriots.

Super Bowl winners tend to dominate at home, nearly 50% are #1 seeds and they also tend to rank in the top-10 in both defensive and offensive scoring. The Patriots answer the bell across the board. They’re undefeated on the road and of their two home losses, one came when Brady was still suspended. They’re set to be the AFC’s top seed and possibly the #1 seed in the league, and they also rank 6th in offense and 1st in scoring defense.

None of that means the Patriots can’t lose or will for sure get to the Super Bowl, but it’s starting to add up to a pretty clear picture. And that’s that the Patriots sure look and feel like the best team in the NFL right now. Vegas can be wrong when it comes to Super Bowl odds, but in a weird season, it feels like they’re getting it right. That could make now the best possible time to bet on the Pats, as their Super Bowl odds will only get less playable from here on out.

Ultimately, we see the Pats going all the way and there Tom Brady and co. will finally exorcise their demons by taking down the Giants to get the 5th Super Bowl in the Bill Belichick/Tom Brady era. It’s not necessarily an ending we all want to see in 2017, but it still will be impressive.

Prediction: Patriots 27, Giants 23

6 Reasons to Watch Thursday Night’s NFL Preseason Finale

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Thursday night brings two exciting things: pro football in the form of NFL preseason games and a clear sign that the 2016 NFL regular season is upon us.

With a fully loaded 15-game schedule, we have 30 of 32 NFL teams on tonight’s docket, meaning we get to see a ton of young talent compete for a roster spot. A ton of star players will naturally be sitting tonight out to rest up for week one of the regular season, but some are expected to suit up and others could see ample playing time in the final week of preseason play.

Let’s go over which players and situations we should be focusing on the most as we tackle the top six reasons to tune into tonight’s NFL preseason finale:

Betting and DFS

The first thing we think of when preseason football hits center stage is how can we make some money off of it? Tonight we can do that easily two different ways, by either betting on individual NFL preseason games or creating a roster over at DraftKings in their preseason daily fantasy football leagues.

Neither of these are easy, as the spreads and Money Lines are understandably weak with such little information and strategy involved in these games. Take away most of the star players from the majority of these games, and we’re truly left in the dark. There are a few things that could help you out, however. For instance, if you look closer at tonight’s Jets vs. Eagles contest, New York figures to give raw rookie quarterback Christian Hackenberg a good amount of field time. Due to his erratic play, the Eagles could make for a fun DFS defense and Philly in general may have the betting edge, as well.

If you can sniff out small advantages like that, you can possibly help distance some of the betting and DFS opportunities. In that same breath, preseason NFL DFS and betting are both very volatile – even more than regular season. We wish you luck, but we don’t condone heavy betting with such little concrete information to aid you.

All Eyes on Paxton Lynch

The second biggest reason to watch the NFL preseason slate on Thursday night is Denver Broncos rookie quarterback Paxton Lynch. The former Memphis product has had his ups and downs all summer, but with Trevor Siemian officially the 2016 starts under center, the team is going into Thursday with the full intention of giving Lynch the entire game.

Lynch will not only be fun to watch, but depending on how he performs, could also be one of the top daily fantasy football options on the night. The fact that he’s a borderline lock to see all four quarters of action makes him more reliable than most of the other quarterback options.

A Whole Lotta Tom Brady

With Jimmy Garoppolo set to start the New England Patriots’ first four games of 2016 thanks to a Tom Brady suspension, it looks like we’ll see a lot of ol’ Tom Terrific tonight. Brady doesn’t need to rest up much considering he’ll be doing a lot of sitting over the next month, so the Pats will want to get some good work in for him. He’s going to end up being rusty come week five, but at least we get to see him for a bit tonight.

Colin Kaepernick’s Next Move

What about Colin Kaepernick isn’t interesting right now? From the start of his game when we can see if he does or doesn’t sit during the National Anthem, to his actual play on the field, everyone will be watching this dude.

If you can find an online betting site that is giving odds for whether or not he sits/stands tonight, that could be an added element to checking his game out, too.

Alex Collins Gets His Chance

One of the better young running backs vying for work in the preseason, Seattle Seahawks rookie rusher Alex Collins figures to see ample work on the field tonight. Collins has thus far been disappointing, but Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll suggested he’d give Collins plenty of chances to prove himself on Thursday night.

Collins has the skill-set and college production to be viewed as a future feature back in Seattle, so Seahawks fans will both want to pay attention to how he does, and also hope he performs well. Given Thomas Rawls ankle injury last year and the erratic play of backup Christine Michael, it might not be crazy to think Collins could see a big role at some point in 2016.

Cuts, Baby, Cuts

The biggest aspect of preseason isn’t really who wins or loses or star players putting up big numbers. Instead, it’s the rookies and lesser known talents that are trying their hardest just to survive in the league. There are guys who flat out don’t belong and are playing probably their last down ever. There are players who probably shouldn’t make it but over achieve like crazy and you find yourself rooting for them. And there are also pedigree guys like Oakland receiver Max McCaffrey (his pops is Ed McCaffrey) that you want to watch to see if they can follow in their father’s footsteps.

Whatever the player, team or situation, it all boils down to week four. The guys that don’t know for sure if they’ll be playing in the NFL a week from now have that final 53 in mind and they’ll be playing their hearts out. Add some preseason NFL betting, preseason daily fantasy football and these other situations we’ve touched on, and Thursday night should be one heck of a ride.