Tag Archives: Trevor Siemian

Broncos Good Betting Target With Trevor Siemian Named Starter

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It’s amazing the difference and off-season can make. The Denver Broncos, pro football royalty as last year’s Super Bowl champs, are now walking into the 2016 NFL season with Trevor Siemian under center.

Bold Move

There was no denying the steep regression of Peyton Manning, how turnover-prone Mark Sanchez has been or how raw Paxton Lynch still seems to be. But Denver’s naming Siemian as the starting quarterback feels like the team isn’t even trying.

Of course, there’s also the possibility the Broncos know their limitations here and are playing the long con. They could see Sanchez, as experienced as he is, just wasn’t stable enough to get the job done. He takes bad sacks, isn’t very accurate and makes woeful decisions bad rookies wouldn’t make. He just wasn’t a realistic option if the Broncos wanted to seriously try to repeat.

Siemian doesn’t look to be on paper, either, but he’s far more conservative of a player (and talent) than Sanchez. With an entire year under his belt as the team’s third string passer, he also has the knowledge and time in Gary Kubiak’s system to potentially make just enough plays to keep Denver afloat.

That could make sense, too, seeing as Denver’s winning philosophy – much like it was in 2015 – is to run the ball and bank on an elite defense sucking the life out of the opposing offense. Both of those things might end up happening regardless of what Denver does at quarterback in 2016, but Sanchez was going to work directly against them and possibly negatively impact their effectiveness. Siemian, although seemingly bringing almost no upside to the table as a no-hype prospect out of Northwestern, figures to simply be the safe option.

The move distances the Broncos from Sanchez and puts the focus on developing Lynch and crossing their fingers than Siemian merely keeps this car moving forward. Whether Siemian falters or not isn’t even the issue. If he doesn’t, the Broncos stay the course like they have been and maybe find a diamond in the rough that can keep a talented team in line for another deep playoff run. If he can’t, he can at least buy Lynch some extra time to learn from the sidelines and mature enough to the point where he won’t embarrass himself once he finally takes over.

Denver Broncos Betting

This still doesn’t sound good for Denver on paper. It’s also worth noting that the Broncos don’t seem like they went hard after a quarterback this off-season. Guys like Josh McCown and Colin Kaepernick could have been had in trades and it’s arguable Denver would have been wise to pay Ryan Fitzpatrick while he was holding out from the New York Jets.

Then again, maybe Denver thought Sanchez would have performed better. Maybe they actually really like Siemian. And perhaps they love Lynch, provided he can learn with a clipboard in his hand for half the year.

Whatever the case may be, Trevor Siemian doesn’t promote a ton of confidence. Needless to say, it’s going to be difficult to love Denver’s chances to repeat as Super Bowl champions, even though Bovada currently has them in a favorable spot with solid +2000 odds. They’re not a strong bet, though, and it’s fair to say with the Kansas City Chiefs and Oakland Raiders looking as good as ever, they’re not even a lock to win the AFC West. Vegas still likes them there, too (+200), however.

Vegas can be wrong, though. Betting on Siemian keeping the Broncos afloat feels dicey and it may not even be a good idea to bet on the Broncos in the early portion of the 2016 regular season. At worst, we should toss some cursory bets against them early on and see what sticks. But if you’re betting in favor of Denver doing anything of real merit in 2016, it certainly does feel like a risk.

Trevor Siemian in Daily Fantasy Football

There is also the case of Siemian’s impact in the daily fantasy football game. Obviously this guy is going to be super cheap in DFS games to start the year and how he plays could dramatically impact all of Denver’s top offensive options. In fact, if starting him backfires and he drowns in a sea of turnovers, it’s not crazy to think Denver’s elite defense gets backed up into a wall and under-performs.

Due to the lack of trust, Siemian is at the very best a shaky option in DFS GPPs and overall just a bad play, otherwise. He might still be able to get the ball to Demaryius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders and maybe even Virgil Green, but Denver has to move forward with a run-heavy game plan if they’re serious about winning with Siemian.

For now, we have to downgrade all of Denver’s top offensive weapons. C.J. Anderson could actually get a solid boost with the Broncos likely to run more than ever, but even he will be a dangerous play in all fantasy football leagues. It will be truly interesting to see if starting Siemian blows up in Denver’s face or this huge move makes them look like geniuses. It may not be the best practice to go heavy on the Broncos while the experiment gets tested, however.

Why Denver Broncos Need to Start Paxton Lynch at Quarterback

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The Denver Broncos are in an interesting spot for a team attempting to defend a Super Bowl title. With Peyton Manning retired and Brock Osweiler now in Houston, the Broncos have inched ahead with three questionable options at quarterback and they still may not have a clear-cut answer at the position.

Sanchez Odd Man Out?

Per reports, backup passer Trevor Siemian is set to start Denver’s third preseason game this week, and may have already leap-frogged proposed starter Mark Sanchez for the right to battle for the starting job. Instead of Siemian battling Sanchez, whispers in Denver suggest it’s now Siemian versus rookie passer Paxton Lynch for the top job.

The writing on the wall may suggest Sanchez is the odd man out, both because he’s due over $4 million if still on the roster when the season begins and his play through two preseason games has been inconsistent, at best. Sanchez has been back to his old turnover ways, and while he did throw a touchdown pass in his first preseason game, he hasn’t made the gap between him and his competition wide enough.

Tough Call

It’s not an easy call for head coach Gary Kubiak, as he clearly has to consider the finances with Sanchez’s salary, but if Sanchez does give the Broncos their best shot at repeating as NFL champions, he may need to keep the former Jet in town.

Siemian winning the job probably isn’t Denver’s ideal situation, either. Flashing in camp and preseason is one thing, but Siemian has no experience to fall back on and was never a highly touted prospect coming out of Northwestern. Instead, the Broncos have to hope Sanchez either regains his footing, or prized first round pick Paxton Lynch steps up and wins the job.

Time is running out for the three quarterbacks to make the decision an obvious one, however. Regardless of what happens in the team’s third preseason game, a tough decision looms.

Denver’s 2016 Playoff Odds

No matter what, the Broncos are down an experienced quarterback with a history of high level success, as Manning is done for good. Even with Sanchez, they’d be getting solid experience, but a turnover-prone passer who has never been overly accurate or consistent. Sanchez also hasn’t been a proven winner since his first two seasons in the league.

All of that can be said of Siemian, too, so the Broncos are undoubtedly in a tough spot with either Sanchez or Siemian under center for a lengthy period of time in 2016. That is also likely the case if Lynch steals the job, but Lynch at least has immense upside on paper and has the skill-set to perfectly fit into Gary Kubiak’s system. On paper, if Lynch could mature throughout the year and the Broncos could lean hard on their defense and ground game, they’d have a chance to remain competitive.

Per Bovada, it probably doesn’t matter who starts under center. Denver still oddly remains the favorites to win the NFC West division (+190), largely because of that elite defense, good coaching and a stellar supporting cast on offense. Their Super Bowl odds aren’t nearly as locked in, of course, with Vegas giving them +1800 odds to repeat as the league champion.

It Has to Be Lynch

The harsh reality here is that Paxton Lynch can’t be any worse than Siemian and the gap between these three guys just isn’t enough to hold the talented rookie back.

In an ideal world, Lynch would sit back and learn on the sidelines, but he’s already performed above expectation and starting him right away is not throwing him to the wolves. If he didn’t have a nice stable of running backs, have the ability to move outside of the pocket, have an elite defense backing him or have guys like Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders to throw the ball to – then sure. If that weren’t all the case, then tossing a raw rookie passer into the starting lineup wouldn’t make any sense.

Sanchez is going to turn the ball over, pass the ball inaccurately and take bad sacks. He’s going to lose Denver games because, despite the experience he’s racked up, he still commits errors and doesn’t always make the right decision.

Denver can’t possibly expect Siemian to be a whole lot better, while his experience edge on Lynch is minute and his talent edge is non-existent.

The only way to go here for Denver is to throw caution to the wind, cut Sanchez and move forward with Paxton Lynch as their franchise quarterback and week one starter. Worst case, Lynch struggles and the Broncos suffer through a Super Bowl hangover and miss the playoffs. Best case, Lynch is the real deal and his elite supporting cast helps keep Denver in playoff contention and maybe even sets them on another deep run to defend their title.

There is middle ground here, too. The point is, the Broncos really should have only ever considered not starting Lynch if Sanchez blew them away or Lynch was atrocious in camp and preseason play. Neither has been the case. The future is now for the Broncos and Lynch. Let’s just hope they realize it.