Tag Archives: UFC 205 predictions

UFC 205 Betting Odds: Can Raquel Pennington Take Down Miesha Tate?

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Former UFC womens bantamweight champion Miesha Tate returns for the first time since losing her belt to Amanda Nunes at July’s UFC 200. Tate’s UFC 205 opponent will be The Ultimate Fighter alumnus Raquel Pennington who is currently on a three fight winning streak. Coincidentally, Pennington was a member of Miesha’s team in the TUF 18 show.

Odds on Cupcake

Miesha Tate opened as a -275 favorite against Raquel Pennington’s +215. That’s the highest opening odds for Tate since fighting Rin Nakai in 2014. Currently, Tate’s worst-best numbers are -190 to -170 while Pennington’s are +145 and +164, respectively.

Oddsmakers have given this fight a -165 to go the full route and a +165 not to go the distance. That’s despite the fact that Pennington’s last two wins were by decision and four of Tate’s last five victories reached the final horn.

Big Step Up

Having said Tate was Rocky’s coach in the TUF says a lot about the difference in experience between these two female bantamweights. Cupcake Tate is a veteran of 24 fights while Pennington has fought 13 times. But that’s not really the big difference between the two.

It’s the quality of opposition that they’ve faced. Sure, Pennington has faced (and lost to) the likes of Holly Holm and Cat Zingano in the past. But Miesha Tate has almost exclusively fought the upper echelon ladies in the past five years. She’s even captured both the Strikeforce and UFC bantamweight titles along the way.

Having said that, Rocky is a downgrade in opposition for Tate and Tate a big step up for Pennington. This is just an intangible though but one that’s hard to ignore.

Striking Edge

The difference in experience doesn’t mean Pennington cannot win this bout. By all means, Rocky has the edge in the striking department, averaging twice as many strikes per minute as Miesha Tate does at 3.96 versus 1.98.

That difference is huge considering Tate’s 51% striking defense isn’t the best in the business. However, Tate makes up for that with the better grappling game. Cupcake averages 2.15 takedowns per 15 minutes against Pennington’s 1.5. That’s not much but once the fight gets down and ugly, we know that’s where Miesha Tate thrives. At 1.8 submission attempts per 15 minutes, Tate is the more active and aggressive fighter on the ground.  

That said, Pennington has to keep the fight on her feet to maintain her advantage. Not only will she be content with striking from a distance, she’d love to brawl with Tate whom she can easily overpower. That will backfire, though, as Tate is going to put her down as many times as she can and win round after round on top position.

UFC 205: Conor McGregor vs. Eddie Alvarez Betting Odds and Prediction

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Conor McGregor continues to chase history as he challenges Eddie Alvarez for the UFC Lightweight title at the main event of UFC 205.

Currently the UFC’s 145-pound kingpin, McGregor hopes to become the first fighter in UFC history to hold two world titles at the same time. To do that, he has to take out the tough and durable Philly native in Alvarez on Saturday, November 12th.

Six in A Row

For the sixth fight in a row, McGregor opened as the betting favorite. He’s lost just once during that period and that was to Nate Diaz at UFC 196.

Against Alvarez, the Irishman opened at -125 against the Underground King who was initially pegged at -105. Now that the fight is barely a week away, McGregor’s numbers have improved although not by much. The Irishman is walking the lines at the  -145 to -160 range. Alvarez, meanwhile, has fallen back +120 to +133 although those odds still say this one’s nearly a pick’em fight.

Not Going The Distance

As for the fight, the oddsmakers have installed a line of -260 for the fight not going the distance and a +200 it goes to a decision. Eighteen of McGregor’s 20 wins have been by stoppage and 17 of those by knockout. On the other hand, Alvarez has 15 knockouts and 7 submissions in 28 total wins. Because of this, the oddsmakers have installed a line of -260 for the fight not going the distance and a +200 it goes to a decision.

Length Matters

Conor McGregor’s left hand is legendary. Even Alvarez admits that it’s his main weapon. But McGregor isn’t just a one-armed bandit. He’s sensational on his feet. Notorious has power, timing and accuracy. Eddie Alvarez himself is an excellent boxer and that makes this an exciting striking affair. But McGregor’s five inch reach advantage should be the difference here.

In his seven UFC fights prior to Nate Diaz, he had the reach advantage. He won all of those bouts.

No Wrestling Disadvantage

McGregor’s perceived weakness is his ground game. But if you take a look at his second bout with the bigger Nate Diaz, the Irishman stuffed 6 of 7 takedown attempts. Many people also forget that during his 2013 bout with Max Holloway, Mystic Mac nailed down 4 of 5 takedown attempts. Fans betting on Alvarez point to his wrestling as his advantage. After all, Alvarez beat Gilbert Melendez and Anthony Pettis by dragging the fight to the ground. But if you take a look at the stats, Alvarez has landed only 29% of his total takedowns in 4 UFC bouts. That’s not gonna be good enough.

Take away McGregor’s advantages, Eddie Alvarez is a solid fighter coming off a first round KO over Rafael Dos Anjos. That’s impressive. However, McGregor not only is the better technical striker, he’s also much longer. Once he feels Conor’s power, he will try to bring the fight to the ground. McGregor’s 70% takedown defense will hold and eventually, Alvarez will either get knocked out in the first 8 minutes or have his face re-arranged after 5 rounds as McGregor promised.

One way or another, the bet is Conor McGregor this weekend, and history awaits.