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UFC 205: Conor McGregor vs. Eddie Alvarez Betting Odds and Prediction

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Conor McGregor continues to chase history as he challenges Eddie Alvarez for the UFC Lightweight title at the main event of UFC 205.

Currently the UFC’s 145-pound kingpin, McGregor hopes to become the first fighter in UFC history to hold two world titles at the same time. To do that, he has to take out the tough and durable Philly native in Alvarez on Saturday, November 12th.

Six in A Row

For the sixth fight in a row, McGregor opened as the betting favorite. He’s lost just once during that period and that was to Nate Diaz at UFC 196.

Against Alvarez, the Irishman opened at -125 against the Underground King who was initially pegged at -105. Now that the fight is barely a week away, McGregor’s numbers have improved although not by much. The Irishman is walking the lines at the  -145 to -160 range. Alvarez, meanwhile, has fallen back +120 to +133 although those odds still say this one’s nearly a pick’em fight.

Not Going The Distance

As for the fight, the oddsmakers have installed a line of -260 for the fight not going the distance and a +200 it goes to a decision. Eighteen of McGregor’s 20 wins have been by stoppage and 17 of those by knockout. On the other hand, Alvarez has 15 knockouts and 7 submissions in 28 total wins. Because of this, the oddsmakers have installed a line of -260 for the fight not going the distance and a +200 it goes to a decision.

Length Matters

Conor McGregor’s left hand is legendary. Even Alvarez admits that it’s his main weapon. But McGregor isn’t just a one-armed bandit. He’s sensational on his feet. Notorious has power, timing and accuracy. Eddie Alvarez himself is an excellent boxer and that makes this an exciting striking affair. But McGregor’s five inch reach advantage should be the difference here.

In his seven UFC fights prior to Nate Diaz, he had the reach advantage. He won all of those bouts.

No Wrestling Disadvantage

McGregor’s perceived weakness is his ground game. But if you take a look at his second bout with the bigger Nate Diaz, the Irishman stuffed 6 of 7 takedown attempts. Many people also forget that during his 2013 bout with Max Holloway, Mystic Mac nailed down 4 of 5 takedown attempts. Fans betting on Alvarez point to his wrestling as his advantage. After all, Alvarez beat Gilbert Melendez and Anthony Pettis by dragging the fight to the ground. But if you take a look at the stats, Alvarez has landed only 29% of his total takedowns in 4 UFC bouts. That’s not gonna be good enough.

Take away McGregor’s advantages, Eddie Alvarez is a solid fighter coming off a first round KO over Rafael Dos Anjos. That’s impressive. However, McGregor not only is the better technical striker, he’s also much longer. Once he feels Conor’s power, he will try to bring the fight to the ground. McGregor’s 70% takedown defense will hold and eventually, Alvarez will either get knocked out in the first 8 minutes or have his face re-arranged after 5 rounds as McGregor promised.

One way or another, the bet is Conor McGregor this weekend, and history awaits.

Conor McGregor Could Have Hands Full vs. Eddie Alvarez at UFC 205

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After all was said and done, the UFC turned to its most bankable superstar to headline its highly anticipated New York debut.

Can’t Wait

Dubbed as “Can’t Wait”, the announcement of McGregor vs. Alvarez made UFC 205 perhaps the most highly awaited event of all-time.

Earlier, the UFC had announced two title fights for its Madison Square Garden debut. Welterweight champion Tyron Woodley will defend his belt against top contender Stephen Thompson while womens’ Strawweight queen Joanna Jedrzejczyk will face fellow Karolina Kowalkiewicz in an all-Polish showdown.

But despite those two title fights, UFC 205 seemed lacking luster. On Monday, the UFC added the crown jewel:

Back and Forth

The confirmation of the McGregor-Alvarez Lightweight title bout came as a surprise because the week before, UFC President Dana White had said that he would prefer that McGregor defends his 145-pound title against nemesis Jose Aldo.

Prior to that, there were rumors that the Irishman’s foot injury hadn’t healed yet and that he would not be ready to fight in New York. White also tweeted to a fan that it would be Khabib Nurmagomedov who would be facing Alvarez in the latter’s first title defense. But as fate would have it, UFC 205 would not be the blockbuster that it is expected to be without the UFC’s main man.

Two-Division Champion

When Conor McGregor  began 2016, his goal was to win a second world title. But when Rafael Dos Anjos pulled out of their UFC 196 bout with an injury, McGregor went on to face Nate Diaz at UFC 196. McGregor lost and spent the next couple of months redeeming himself from the loss that derailed his plans to take over the UFC.

The Notorious King got his revenge at UFC 202, beating Diaz by decision. Now that he’s on track once again, the quest to become the third man to win two weight classes in the UFC has continued. A win by McGregor will not only let him join the company of B.J. Penn and Randy Couture, it will make McGregor the first man to hold two title belts concurrently.

Philly’s Pride

Beating Alvarez won’t be a walk in the park, though. The former two-time Bellator Lightweight champion is on a roll. After losing to Donald Cerrone in his UFC debut, he’s racked up three consecutive victories. Those wins weren’t just ordinary ones. They  came at the expense of Gilbert Melendez, Anthony Pettis and Rafael Dos Anjos.

For his part, Alvarez got his wish. After sensationally knocking out Dos Anjos last July 7th, Alvarez demanded a big money fight with the winner of McGregor-Diaz. He got it, and what follows is without a doubt one of the best UFC fight cards we’ve ever witnessed.

UFC 205 will be held on November 12th, 2016 at the fabled Madison Square Garden in New York. Naturally, we can’t wait.

UFC 205: Kelvin Gastelum vs. Donald Cerrone Odds and Preview

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Kelvin Gastelum will be stepping in to face Donald Cerrone at UFC 205 after Cerrone’s original bout with Robbie Lawler fell off:

 

A Sudden Twist

After beating Johny Hendicks at UFC 200, Kelvin Gastelum wanted to fight either Robbie Lawler or Donald Cerrone. Unfortunately, he was booked to a fight against Jorge Masvidal for UFC Mexico. Lawler and Cerrone would later be booked to a UFC 205 date. But in a sudden twist of fate, Robbie Lawler pulled out of the bout, leaving Cerrone without an opponent for the UFC’s New York Debut. With the UFC intent on keeping Cerrone at the event, they scrambled to find an opponent. And Kelvin Gastelum was the perfect choice.

Fresh off beating former champion Hendricks, Gastelum is the former The Ultimate Fighter Season 17 winner. He has a record of 12-2 with 4 knockouts and 4 submissions. Although he is only 2-2 in his last 4 bouts, his victory over Hendricks pushed him up to #5 in the current UFC welterweight rankings.

After winning his first 10 bouts, Gastelum suffered a split decision loss against current welterweight champion Tyron Woodley at UFC 183. Two fights later, Gastelum again lost by split decision to Neil Magny before rebounding with a resounding win over Hendricks last July. Dubbed as Mini Cain for his resemblance to former UFC heavyweight champ Cain Velasquez, Gastelum owns notable victories over Uriah Hall, RIck Story, Jake Ellenberger, Nate Marquardt and Hendricks.

Riding High

Gastelum will be facing a red hot Donald Cerrone at UFC 205. Since moving up to welterweight, Cowboy has been riding high up in his saddle. Cerrone’s won three in a row all by stoppage. In his last two victories, Cowboy became the first fighter to stop both Patrick Cote and Rick Story on strikes. Cerrone’s success jumped him to #7 in the UFC welterweight rankings and he was looking to challenge Lawler to get a shortcut to the top.

Although there hasn’t been any official statement on Lawler’s withdrawal, rumors are saying Robbie wanted to take more time off from his 1st round KO loss to Woodley. If that is the case then it’s a little ironic because it was Lawler himself who was literally begging UFC President Dana White a quick turnaround fight after UFC 203.

Odds on Favorite

Cerrone opened as a -175 favorite against Gastelum’s +135. That may sound surprising given Cerrone has only fought thrice as a welterweight and the 5th ranked Gastelum has been fighting at that weight class much longer. However, Cerrone has looked very impressive as of late and has shown little or no weakness during his welterweight run.

Of the four matches officially booked for UFC 205, The Cerrone-Gastelum bout has the closest odds. Inside the Octagon, it is also likely to be a back and forth bout as well.