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UFC 223 Odds and Prediction: Tony Ferguson vs. Khabib Nurmagomedov

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They say the third time is the charm but in this case, it’s the fourth.

Tony Ferguson and Khabib Nurmagomedov have been booked thrice in the past to fight each other but each time they were slated to fight, something happened in between that caused the fight to be cancelled. With barely two weeks to go before UFC 223, it appears that the fight everybody has been waiting for will finally happen.

Ferguson and Nurmagomedov are set to fight for the UFC Lightweight title at the main event of UFC 223 at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York. Ferguson is the current interim title holder and has won a lightweight division record of 10 fights in a row.

In his last bout, Ferguson choked out Kevin Lee to become interim lightweight champion.  El Cucuy has not lost since 2012 and appears to be only getting better.

Balanced Fighters

Nurmagomedov is unbeaten in 25 fights and has 19 knockouts. In his most recent triumph, Khabib dominated Edson Barboza at UFC 219. The former combat sambo champion and judo black belt is one of the most dangerous fighters in the planet. He has beaten every man put in front of him and has won everything in the game except the belt.

Nurmagomedov is favored here at -275 at Bovada, while Ferguson came back at +215.

We know how dynamic of a striker Tony Ferguson is and we know how equally good he is with his submission game. El Cucuy has knockout power in both hands and he likes to put on the pressure and employ volume striking.

But Nurmagomedov is just as balanced as Ferguson is as a fighter. He is relentless in going for takedowns and once he secures them, it seems like his opponents never find a way to get out of them. But Khabib isn’t just a grappler, he also possesses a wide array of strikes and can finish his opponent with either hand.

The Best Lightweights

This is going to be one hell of a fight between the two best lightweights in the planet, Conor McGregor notwithstanding.

Sure, Khabib has looked invincible up to this point and no opponent has been able to really wrestle with him. But not only is Ferguson physically bigger, he is equally adept on the ground. In fact, El Cucuy may have more finishing moves than the Dagestani. On the feet, it’s almost even but it’s Ferguson who has the ability to end the fight with one punch.

Common sense tells us to bet on Nurmagomedov who hasn’t shown us anything to bet against him. But Ferguson is a different beast and he too has shown little reason to doubt him.

Another factor here could be Khabib’s inactivity. He’s fought just once in the past year and while it didn’t look obvious against Barboza, it could show against a more dynamic foe like Ferguson.

We’re getting almost twice the money with Ferguson and in a close fight like this, you’d like to go with that kind of line. We’re picking Tony Ferguson to win this fight and become the undisputed lightweight champion of the world.

UFC 223 Odds and Prediction: Al Iaquinta vs. Paul Felder

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Lightweight Al Iaquinta and Paul Felder square off in the UFC’s return to Brooklyn at UFC 223 on April 7th, 2018 at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York.

Close As It Gets

Long Island’s Al Iaquinta successfully came back from a two year hiatus with a brutal knockout of the original Ultimate Fighter Diego Sanchez at last April’s UFC Nashville event. Iaquinta is riding high on a five fight winning streak and was booked to fight Felder at UFC 218 but pulled out due to an injury.

Felder remained at the UFC 218 event and ended up with an emphatic 2nd round TKO win over Charles Oliveira. The ‘Irish Dragon’ has won his last three fights, all by stoppage and all with brutal elbows involved in the finish. With Felder out of the lightweight division;s Top 15, a victory over the 11th ranked Iaquinta should put him back in the UFC map again.

This one is as close as it gets. Iaquinta is the slight favorite at -120 while Felder is at even money +100. Iaquinta has produced four knockouts in his last five bouts and in his most recent bout against Diego Sanchez, he needed only 12 strikes to finish the fight. Raging Al is known as a striker but he has a good grappler and can grind it out to victory.

But while he can grapple with the best, his ground game is suspect because all three of his career defeats have come via decision. Iaquinta though hasn’t lost since 2014 and he will be fighting for the first time in front of his hometown fans. That should be a big advantage for him in this fight.

Questions on Iaquinta

Felder is a pressure fighter who likes to make his opponent uncomfortable inside the octagon. Where it’s striking on his feet or executing his ground and pound game on the mat, he is a creative fighter. Felder can change things up quickly in the middle of the fight and his ability to adapt makes him a dangerous foe for Iaquinta.

Iaquinta has the better resume and has more experience but the concern about him is his overall form. He’s fought once in the last two years and he didn’t even have to do much to win that fight. Felder meanwhile has been busy in the last few years and has picked up solid wins with his consistent performances.

Between watching Felder fight more consistently and Iaquinta’s unknowns coming of a long layoff, it’s better to bet on what we know. We know Felder has been active and he has been good.

With even money on him, Felder is the pick in this fight. There’s just too many questions regarding Al Iaquinta’s true form. We’re picking Felder to win a grinder of a bout.