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UFC on Fox 29 Odds and Prediction: Carlos Condit vs. Matt Brown

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Former interim welterweight champion Carlos Condit faces fellow veteran Matt Brown in a welterweight scrap that will serve as the co-main event for UFC on Fox 29 on April 14th, 2018 at the GIla River Arena in Glendale, Arizona.

Not Yet Done

Condit’s reputation as one of the best in this generation is already set in stone. But the former interim UFC welterweight champion isn’t done yet with his MMA career.

Condit hopes to break out of a three-fight losing streak, the longest such streak of his decorated career. Most recently, Condit lost via unanimous decision to Neil Magny at UFC 219. Prior to that, the Natural Born Killer was submitted by Demian Maia at UFC on Fox 21 and also dropped a five-round thriller against then UFC welterweight champion Robbie Lawler at UFC 195.

Brown was almost surely headed for retirement after a lackluster 2016 which saw him lose thrice, all via stoppage.

After suffering a third round submission loss to Demian Maia at UFC 198, Brown was knocked out by Jake Ellenberger at UFC 201 and by Donald Cerrone at UFC 206. But after announcing that his November bout against Diego Sanchez would be his swansong bout, Brown came out victorious in a Performance of the Night outing and has since put his retirement plans on hold.

A Tough Pick

This potential Fight of the Year candidate is an even fight. Both fighters are currently at -110 and given their recent struggles, it’s hard to pick who’s in better shape at this stage of their careers.

Condit is a very dangerous fighter, with one punch knockout power and 11 submissions to his credit. Twenty eight of his 30 wins have come via stoppage so, don’t expect him to try and win this fight on points.

The Natural Born Killer is an excellent striker, owing to his kickboxing background. Despite losing his last four decisions, he has the stamina to be effective in the latter rounds. Giving up on Condit right now isn’t really a good idea although it’s clear that he’s no longer the fighter that beat Nick Diaz to become interim welterweight champion.

Volume of Strikes

Like Condit, Brown has been on a rough patch as of late. But he has been able to come out of it last November with an emphatic win over Diego Sanchez. Like Condit, Brown is also a violent striker who has good accuracy.

Six of his last seven wins have been by knockout so it’s not unusual to expect for one here. Brown’s takedown defense has improved in recent years. In fact, he’s never been taken down since 2013. Having said that, this bout is likely to be decided on the feet.

This one’s a hard pick really but given their most recent performances, it does appear that Matt Brown has more fight left in him than Condit. Brown can trade blows with Condit and his takedown defense should also hold against the Natural Born Killer. This one should go down to volume of strikes and because of that, we’re going with Matt Brown. We’re picking Matt Brown to beat Carlos Condit.

UFC on Fox 29 Odds and Prediction: Dustin Poirier vs. Justin Gaethje

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Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje meet at the main event of UFC on Fox 29 on April 14th, 2018 at the Gila River Arena in Glendale, Arizona.

Poirier is coming off an impressive third round victory over former WEC and UFC lightweight champion Anthony ‘Showtime’ Pettis at UFC Fight Night 120. Moving two fight backward, Poirier beat Jim Miller via majority decision at UFC 208 and his fight with Eddie Alvarez at UFC 211 ended in a no-contest after Alvarez landed illegal knees.

Ranked 5th in the UFC lightweight division, Poirier hopes to move one fight closer to a first ever title shot with a win over Justin Gaethje.

More Polished

Gaethje took the UFC by storm with a violent and scintillating win over Michael Johnson at the TUF 25 Finale. But the Highlight was taken down to earth after being stopped in the third round of his slugfest with Eddie Alvarez at UFC 218.

Despite his 1-1 UFC record, the former WSOF lightweight champion is one of the most exciting fighters owing to his devil may care attitude. Both of Gaethje’s bouts have been named as Fight of the Night winners.

This one’s a pick ‘em fight with the more polished Poirier the slight favorite at -140 and the offensive minded Gaethje the underdog at +120. The Diamond is the more complete fighter here with the more variety of strikes and better accuracy.

He also has a good ground and pound game should this fight go to the canvass. Since losing to Conor McGregor in 2014, Poirier has lost just once and he will without doubt be coming with a lot of confidence to Glendale.

No Defense

Gaethje is without question the most violent man in the promotion. The Highlight throws a lot of punches and tries to overwhelm his opponents with volume and power. He also has wrestling background dating back to his high school days.

Given his power and striking ability, it’s tempting to consider picking Gaethje and the plus money over Poirier. But based on his two UFC bouts, his defense hasn’t been that good, if it exists at all. Gaethje simply wants to fight toe to toe and hope he drops his opponent first. That won’t work against a skilled fighter like Dustin Poirier.

If Poirier doesn’t get caught in a phone booth affair, this is going to be an easy fight for him. He can fight Gaethje at a distance all day or he can take him to the ground and make him uncomfortable. Either way, it’s hard not to choose Poirier. He’s so much better overall.

We’re picking Dustin Poirier to beat Justin Gaethje.

UFC 223 Odds and Prediction: Joanna Jedrzejczyk vs. Rose Namajunas

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UFC women’s strawweight champion Rose Namajunas will defend her belt against the woman she won it from.

In a rematch of their UFC 217 bout from last November, Thug Rose is set to fight Joanna Jedrzejczyk in the co-main event of UFC 223 on April 7th, 2018 at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York.

The Rematch

Namajunas upset Jedrzejczyk in their first encounter, knocking out the erstwhile unbeaten Polish champion in the very first round.

Altogether, the 25-year old Namajunas has won five of her last six fights on her way to becoming world champion. Thug Rose owns wins over Tecia Torres, Michelle Waterson, Angela Hilla and Paige Van Zant.

Jedrzejczyk, meanwhile, suffered her first loss at the hands of Namajunas.

The 30-year old former kickboxing champion was one win away from tying Ronda Rousey’s record for most successful title defenses when she ran into Thug Rose. J

oana won the belt with a vicious stoppage of Carla Esparza before dominantly defending it against the likes of Jessica Penne, Valerie Letourneau, Claudia Gadelha, Karolina Kowalkiewicz and Jessica Andrade. She hopes to bring back the belt to Poland where she says it truly belongs.

Champion Kickboxer

The former champion Jedrzejczyk is the slight favorite here (-140 at Bovada), while the new champion Namajunas is the underdog at +110.

The lines are close but it’s still surprising that Namajunas isn’t the favorite here considering how one sided their first fight was. Some people say that Rose caught Joanna on a bad night at UFC 217 but the way Namajunas dominated Jedrzejczyk for three full minutes was more than just pure luck.

Jedrzejczyk is a former world champion kickboxer and that’s why she uses her kicks and knees more than anybody in the business. On her feet she is a great striker, with good technique, high efficiency and superb accuracy. In all her fights, she’s always had the advantage in the stand-up.

No Answers

However, when she faced Namajunas, it seemed like she didn’t have any answers for Namajunas attack. Thug Rose isn’t known to be a knockout puncher and her only knockout victory was her win over Jedrzejczyk.

That leaves us with an intriguing question of what happened at UFC 217? Did Joanna simply have a bad night? Or is Rose her kryptonite?

On the ground, Namajunas is a scary foe. She has five submission wins under her belt and she is deadly if she can gain position on the canvass.

Namajunas loves to go for the rear naked choke, her signature move. But while she may not be as skilled on her feet as Jedrzejczyk is, she can hold her own and land some meaningful punches. That’s the story of UFC 217.

Same Results

Jedrzejczyk is the better striker here by a mile. But given how tough and gritty Namajunas is, she isn’t just going to stop her on her tracks.

The big question here is if Joana can take Rose’s punches. She has been able to take the punches of all her previous opponents but maybe not Rose’s.

Joana can’t take this fight to the ground or she’ll end up getting submitted. On her feet she will thrive but Namajunas didn’t seem to be worried about Joanna’s power which she probably could take anyway. The same can’t be said otherwise as Namajunas may be the harder puncher than Jedrzejczyk. If Joanna can’t eat her punches, the results won’t be any different.

We’re picking Rose Namajunas to win the bout and defend her belt.

UFC 223 Odds and Prediction: Tony Ferguson vs. Khabib Nurmagomedov

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They say the third time is the charm but in this case, it’s the fourth.

Tony Ferguson and Khabib Nurmagomedov have been booked thrice in the past to fight each other but each time they were slated to fight, something happened in between that caused the fight to be cancelled. With barely two weeks to go before UFC 223, it appears that the fight everybody has been waiting for will finally happen.

Ferguson and Nurmagomedov are set to fight for the UFC Lightweight title at the main event of UFC 223 at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York. Ferguson is the current interim title holder and has won a lightweight division record of 10 fights in a row.

In his last bout, Ferguson choked out Kevin Lee to become interim lightweight champion.  El Cucuy has not lost since 2012 and appears to be only getting better.

Balanced Fighters

Nurmagomedov is unbeaten in 25 fights and has 19 knockouts. In his most recent triumph, Khabib dominated Edson Barboza at UFC 219. The former combat sambo champion and judo black belt is one of the most dangerous fighters in the planet. He has beaten every man put in front of him and has won everything in the game except the belt.

Nurmagomedov is favored here at -275 at Bovada, while Ferguson came back at +215.

We know how dynamic of a striker Tony Ferguson is and we know how equally good he is with his submission game. El Cucuy has knockout power in both hands and he likes to put on the pressure and employ volume striking.

But Nurmagomedov is just as balanced as Ferguson is as a fighter. He is relentless in going for takedowns and once he secures them, it seems like his opponents never find a way to get out of them. But Khabib isn’t just a grappler, he also possesses a wide array of strikes and can finish his opponent with either hand.

The Best Lightweights

This is going to be one hell of a fight between the two best lightweights in the planet, Conor McGregor notwithstanding.

Sure, Khabib has looked invincible up to this point and no opponent has been able to really wrestle with him. But not only is Ferguson physically bigger, he is equally adept on the ground. In fact, El Cucuy may have more finishing moves than the Dagestani. On the feet, it’s almost even but it’s Ferguson who has the ability to end the fight with one punch.

Common sense tells us to bet on Nurmagomedov who hasn’t shown us anything to bet against him. But Ferguson is a different beast and he too has shown little reason to doubt him.

Another factor here could be Khabib’s inactivity. He’s fought just once in the past year and while it didn’t look obvious against Barboza, it could show against a more dynamic foe like Ferguson.

We’re getting almost twice the money with Ferguson and in a close fight like this, you’d like to go with that kind of line. We’re picking Tony Ferguson to win this fight and become the undisputed lightweight champion of the world.

UFC Fight Night 127 Odds and Prediction: Jimi Manuwa vs. Jan Blachowicz

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Jimi Manuwa and Jan Blachowicz run back their 2015 bout at UFC Fight Night 127 on March 17th, 2018 at the O2 Arena in London, England.

Manuwa beat Blachowicz via unanimous decision when they first met at UFC Fight Night 64 in Blachowicz’s home country of Poland. This time around, the pair will square off one more time and it will be Jimi Manuwa’s turn to host Blachowicz in his native United Kingdom.

Manuwa is 17-3 but has split his last six bouts. He is coming off of a July defeat to Volkan Oezdemir and he is hoping to avoid back to back losses for the first time in his MMA career.

Likewise, Blachowicz has won just half of his last eight bouts. Unlike Manuwa, though, he is coming off a December victory over Jared Cannonier.

A Stand Up Battle

Manuwa is the favorite here at -200 while Blachowicz came back as a solid +160 underdog at Bovada. Poster Boy is fighting at home and when he does, his record is an almost perfect 16-1. His only loss in England came against Alexander Gustafsson and that was way back in 2014. But it’s not only because of home court advantage that Manuwa is favored in this bout.

In their first bout, Manuwa won the fight by outlanding Blachowicz 81-58 in total strikes landed. There were no takedowns during that fight and in a stand up battle, Manuwa vs Blachowicz is a no-contest in favor of Jimi Manuwa.

15 of Manuwa’s 20 fights have ended in a knockout so his fighting style is no secret.  Manuwa is a striker who has one punch knockout power. As to his ground game, well he only has three takedowns in his UFC career. So for as long as he can keep this fight on his feet, beating Jan Blachowicz again is no problem.

Same Fight, Same Result

Blachowicz is the more balanced fighter between the two but he can’t keep up with Manuwa in the striking game. Manuwa simply has much powerful hands. For Blachowicz to win this fight, he must take Manuwa to the mat and wear him down. If he is able to do that, things can get very interesting.

But since their 2015 bout, nothing much has changed. So if Manuwa was able to avoid getting taken down three years ago, he can do so again in this rematch. And if the fight is relegated to a striking battle, it’s Manuwa who’s going to stand out.

This will be the same fight as before and the result is going to the same too. We’re picking Jimi Manuwa to win this bout by stoppage.

UFC Fight Night 127: Fabricio Werdum vs. Alexander Volkov Odds and Prediction

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Fabricio Werdum and Alexander Volkov square off in a battle of former champions from rival promotions.

Former Champions

The former UFC Heavyweight champion Werdum and the former Bellator Heavyweight champion Volkov will headline UFC Fight Night 127 (also known as UFC London) on March 17th, 2018 at the O2 Arena in London, England.

Currently ranked #3 in the UFC’s heavyweight division, Werdum will be looking for his third straight win. He is 3-1 since losing the UFC heavyweight title to Stipe Miocic in 2016, with his unanimous decision loss to Alistair Overeem in July 2017 the only blot in his resume in his last four bouts. Werdum has a professional MMA record of 23-7-1.

Tough To Pick

Volkov, meanwhile, is looking to stay unbeaten since moving over to the UFC in 2016. The 29-year old has beaten Timothy Johnson, Roy Nelson and Stefan Struve in his first three bouts with the UFC. Volkov is currently ranked #7 in the standings and is 29-6 in his MMA career. A  victory over Werdum should put Volkov in the Top 5 and include him in title conversations.

This one’s going to be tough to pick. Werdum is the favorite here at -205 at Bovada, while Volkov is the underdog at +165.

Despite being almost 41-years old, Werdum remains one of the best in the business. As he’s gotten older, Werdum’s striking has improved and he’s shown the ability to finish fights on his feet. However, it’s his grappling and ground game that make him unique in his weight class.

Best Submission Artist

Werdum is a top tier Brazilian Jiu Jitsu expert. He’s won wrestling medals,  BJJ championships and has 11 MMA wins by submission. Werdum is considered as the best submission artist in the history of the heavyweight  division and will have a huge advantage if this fight goes down to the canvass.

Volkov is comfortable on the ground but he is a striker at heart. 19 of his victories have been by knockout and he has been accurate with his strikes in his first three UFC bouts. He’s a very active fighter who has a top notch ground and pound game if he gets to top position the mat.

Not An Easy Fight

It’s not going to be an easy fight for Werdum. Volkov has the advantage in striking and given his edge in reach and size, he has the ability to strike from the outside and avoid getting taken down by Werdum. If Werdum can’t take him down, Volkov would be content with fighting him at a distance and walking away with a decision.

But if Werdum gets him to the ground, it’s going to be another story. The Brazilian is going to wear down Volkov and take him to deep waters. Volkov has gotten the better of strikers in his young UFC career. But we’re not sure whether he has what it takes to prevent the best submission artist in the weight class from taking him down.

We’re picking Fabricio Werdum to pick up the victory here.

UFC on Fox 28: Ovince St. Preux vs. Ilir Latifi Odds and Prediction

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Ovince St. Preux and Ilir Latifi finally collide at UFC on Fox 28 on February 24th, 2018 at the Amway Center in Orlando, Florida.

These two light heavyweight contenders were supposed to fight each other at UFC on Fox 27 but Latifi pulled out of that bout with an undisclosed injury. But after Yoel Romero vs. David Branch was pulled out from the Orlando event, the St. Preux vs. Latifi showdown was reset.

Getting What He Asked For

St. Preux is on a three-fight winning streak, earning post fight bonuses in each of his last two wins. In his most recent bout, OSP knocked out Corey Anderson via head kick at UFC 217. Prior to that, St. Preux won back to back fights by Von Flue choke. OSP had three straight losses before this current streak.

Latifi is 4-1 in his last five bouts. He is coming off a unanimous decision win over Tyson Pedro at UFC 215. Prior to that victory, Latifi lost via knockout to Ryan Bader. The 34-year old Swedish fighter hoped to keep keep his fight with St. Preux despite the injury. He’s getting what he asked for.

A Powerful Striker

St. Preux is the slight underdog here (-125 at Realbet.eu), while Latifi opens as a mild favorite at -105. OSP is a big strong athlete who has recorded finishes in eight of his last nine wins. He is a powerful striker with an 80 inch reach advantage. St. Preux is looking to win four fights in a row since 2013 and is coming off back to back performance of the night honors.

Likewise, Latifi is a powerful striker who has recorded knockouts due to punches in three of his last five victories. He is also comfortable on the ground with four submission wins and four takedowns landed in his last fight. But against an aggressive striker like OSP, his chin may not hold.

Has Momentum Going

Latifi fought just once last year and is giving up seven inches in reach to St. Preux. If those advantages aren’t enough, OSP finished 2017 strong and has momentum going his way. St. Preux has the advantage on his feet as he is going to test not just Latifi’s defense butt his chin as well.

If Latifi decides to take this fight to the ground, OSP also has a good ground game. St. Preux has recorded six career wins by submission so Latifi can’t take him lightly on the canvass. Having said that, Ovince St. Preux has the advantage here, either way. He’s going to continue to climb the standings and pick up another win here. We’re picking Ovince St. Preux to pick up his fourth straight win.

UFC on Fox 28: Jeremy Stephens vs. Josh Emmett Odds and Prediction

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Jeremy Stephens faces Josh Emmett in the main event of UFC on Fox 28 on February 24th, 2018 at the Amway Center in Orlando, Florida.

The event was supposed to be headlined by Yoel Romero and David Branch but the former was promoted to the UFC 221 main event after the injury to UFC middleweight champion Robert Whitaker.

When this fight was booked, Stephens was just days removed from a second round knockout of Doo Ho Choi at UFC St. Louis. He took the fight, not just to stay busy but keep himself alive in the title hunt. Emmett is coming off the biggest win of his career, a first round knockout win over Ricardo Lamas at UFC on Fox 26.

Stephens is 26-14 overall and has won just half of his last ten fights. On the other hand, Josh Emmett is 13-1 and owns five victories in his last six bouts. His only loss has been a close split decision loss to Desmond Green at UFC 210.

The Odds

Stephens is the slight -160 favorite at Bovada, while Emmett is listed as the mild underdog at +130.

This one could go either way really. Stephens is the slightly bigger fighter here so the size advantage is with him. Li’l Heathen also possesses more punching power, as he can end things with just one punch and in one blink of an eye.

But Josh Emmett is the better all around fighter here. He can a deep wrestling background, is an excellent grappler and can defend intelligently on his feet. He is fundamentally sound and has the better fight IQ than Stephens. Whatever his opponent brings to the fight, he can make adjustments and win.

Good Defensive Instincts

Stephens main problem here is that his opponent has good defensive instincts which enables him to avoid any serious trouble on his feet. Emmett is going to wrestle, grapple and wear down Stephens, take away his ability to finish the fight and force him to win another way.

Josh Emmett is going to limit Jeremy Stephens’ punching power and is going to take this fight to the ground where Li’l Heathen is not comfortable. If he fights smart, he’s not going to get hit with the big bombs and he’s going to pull off the upset. We’re picking Josh Emmett to win this fight by unanimous decision.

UFC Fight Night 125 : John Dodson vs. Pedro Munhoz Prediction

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A bantamweight bout between John Dodson and Pedro Munhoz has been added to UFC Fight Night 125 on February 3rd, 2018 at the Arena Guilherme Paraense in Belem, Brazil.

Dodson enters this fight with a 20-9 record with half of his wins by knockout. Dodson fought for the UFC flyweight belt twice but on both occasions, he got beaten soundly by Demetrious Johnson.

Opposite Fortunes

Following the second loss to Mighty Mouse, Dodson returned to bantamweight but he hasn’t been as successful there either. Dodson has alternated wins and losses since his return to 135 pounds. In his most recent bout, Dodson dropped a split decision loss to Marlon Moraes.

While Dodson has been struggling as of late, Munhoz has been on a roll. Since losing to Jimmie Rivera by split decision at UFC Fight Night 77 in 2015, he’s won four fights in a row. Three wins have come via guillotine submission and all three submission wins  have earned him Performance of the Night honors.

Despite their recent fortunes, Dodson is still ranked higher than Munhoz in the UFC’s bantamweight ladder. The Magician currently sits at #8 in the division while Munhoz is still at #10. However, a win here by the Brazilian could change his fortunes.

Prediction

This is a battle of styles because Dodson has knockout power while Munhoz is the submission expert. Given that, something has to give here and if we were to pick a winner, we’re going with Munhoz who is on a winning streak. Given his current form, Munhoz can and will take this fight to the ground where he will have the clear advantage over Dodson.

Munhoz is also 6-1 when fighting in his backyard so that’s going to play some part too. While Dodson has knockout power, he has not scored a knockout since halting John Moraga in 2014. Dodson has also just won twice in his last two bout and while he’s never lost two in a row in his career, this could be the first time.

Munhoz is going to drag this fight to the ground and he’s going to punish Dodson there. If he’s not going to get the submission, Munhoz is going to grind out a solid win here. We’re picking Pedro Munhoz to beat John Dodson.

UFC on Fox 27 Odds and Prediction: Ronaldo Souza vs. Derek Brunson

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Ronaldo ‘Jacare’ Souza takes on Derek Brunson on January 27th, 2018 at the main event of UFC on Fox 27 at the Spectrum Center in Charlotte, North Carolina.

Second Time

This will be the second time that these two middleweight contenders are going to fight each other. The first time they met was at the Strikeforce promotion in 2012, where Souza recorded a quick 41-second knockout of Brunson. Souza signed with the UFC the following year and has won seven of nine bouts.

Brunson meanwhile, immediately went to the UFC following his loss to Jacare and has compiled a record of 9-3 under the UFC banner. Three of Brunson’s last three fights were outside U.S. soil but for this encounter, he will be fighting in front of his hometown fans in Charlotte, North Carolina.

Contrasting Styles

Between two decorated octagon veterans, this one’s a pick ‘em fight. Jacare is the slight favorite at -160 while Brunson came back as the underdog at +140. This should be both fun and exciting to watch with two fighters trying to impose their contrasting styles on each other.

According to Fightmetric, Souza is averaging 3.24 takedowns per 15 minutes with 44.44% accuracy. Meanwhile Brunson lands 3.2 significant strikes per minute at a 46% connect rate.

Having said that, it’s pretty clear that Jacare might want to bring this fight to the ground rather than slug it out with Brunson on his feet. Brunson meanwhile is well aware that Jacare has 17 wins by submission, so he’d rather take his chances standing up rather than defending the Brazilian’s submission attempts on the ground.

Not The Same Fighter

When he’s at his best, Jacare Souza is one of the sport’s premier grapplers and wrestlers. As we said, he has 17 wins by submission and that represents 58% of his total victories to date. He is coming off the first knockout loss of his career against Robert Whitaker but he’s never lost back to back fights before in his career. The only concern here is that Souza is already 38 years old and while he still has the ability to strike with the best in business, his reflexes are no longer what they used to be. Just take a look at the Whitaker bout.

That’s where Brunson gets excited. After his back to back losses to Robert Whitaker ( by KO ) and Anderson Silva ( controversial loss ), Brunson has picked up consecutive knockout wins over Daniel Kelly and Lyoto Machida. He is one of the biggest punchers in the middleweight division with his last six wins coming via knockout. Not only does Brunson have the punching power, he also has a 77 inch reach that makes him an ever dangerous striker. Although he isn’t adept to the ground and Souza is, Brunson has never been submitted in his career.

Submissions Are Key

Submissions are the key here because it’s where Souza has made a living and it’s where Brunson has never tasted defeat. In a game between striker and grappler, it’s almost always good to beat on the latter. In this case though, Brunson doesn’t only have a five inch reach advantage on Jacare, he also has never been submitted nor has he ever been taken down in his UFC career.

Brunson has the speed  to counter every takedown that Souza tries and has the power to end this fight at any moment. Given Jacare’s age and decline in recent fights plus the fact that Brunson is fighting in his hometown, we’re picking the American Derek Brunson to win this rematch via knockout.