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UFC 220 Odds and Prediction: Daniel Cormier vs. Volkan Oezdemir

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Daniel Cormier will defend the UFC light heavyweight title against Volkan Oezdemir on January 20th, 2018 at UFC 220 in Boston’s TD Garden.

Cormier was recently reinstated as the UFC’s 205-pound king after Jon Jones failed yet another drug test. Prior to that, Jones stopped Cormier cold during their rematch at UFC to reclaim the UFC light heavyweight crown. The loss was Cormier’s second to Jones and only the second loss of his MMA career.

Volkan Oezdemir is one of the fastest rising fighters in the UFC. A winner of three straight bouts, Oezdemir is coming off a victory over the highly touted Jimi Manuwa in July. Prior to that, Oezdemir scored a first round KO of Misha Cirkunov and came away with a split decision win over Ovince St. Preux.  

Untested Ground Game

DC is the favorite here at -300 while Oezdemir came back at +240.

Oezdemir has that one punch knockout power in him so he always has a shot to win any fight. But against Cormier, he’ll be fighting an opponent who has seen it all inside that Octagon. Cormier is one of the sport’s best grapplers owing to his collegiate and Olympic wrestling background. Against a powerful striker like Oezdemir, you bet he’s going to take this fight to the ground.

Oezdemir has real knockout power and is primarily a striker because of his kickboxing background. On his feet, he averages 6.12 significant strikes per minute landed but in three UFC fights, he has zero takedowns landed.

This is going to be his problem against Cormier who is a supreme wrestler. DC averages just 1.81 takedowns per 15 minutes but he doesn’t need to many of them. Once he gets his opponent to the ground, it’s going to be a grind.

DC is Too Smart

There is no denying that Volkan Oezdemir has the power to knock out anybody. While Cormier has a granite chin, we saw him get knocked out by Jon Jones due to voluminous strikes. Oezdemir is well capable of doing the same, that is if he withstands Cormier’s ground attack early in the fight.

We’ve seen this in many of DC’s older fights. He takes his opponents down early and punishes them on the ground. In the later rounds, his opponents get weary and Cormier begins to take over. Looks like this will be how this fight unfolds.

DC is too smart to stand and trade with Oezdemir. He’s going to take away his punching power by forcing him to the ground early. Once Oezdemir’s pop is gone, DC’s going to take care of this fight.

We’re picking Daniel Cormier to win this bout by decision.

Francis Ngannou Opens As Favorite Against Stipe Miocic

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UFC Heavyweight champion Stipe Miocic will defend his belt against #1 contender Francis Ngannou at UFC 220 in Boston on January 20th, 2018.

The UFC made the bout official last week:

Winning The Belt Easier Than Keeping It

Since losing to Junior Dos Santos in 2014, Miocic has won five fights in a row – all by knockout. After his five round war with Mark Hunt at UFC Fight Night 65, Miocic has not let any opponent get past round one.

Miocic became the #1 contender by dusting Andrei Arlovski in just 54 seconds. Then he won the belt by knocking out Fabricio Werdum in 2:47. Miocic then successfully defended the belt twice, stopping Alistair Overeem in 4:27 and avenging the loss to Dos Santos in 2:22 during his last octagon appearance at UFC 211.

Winning the UFC heavyweight belt is easier than keeping it, though. No champion in the history of the UFC’s heavyweight division has ever defended the title more than twice. Should he go on to defeat Ngannou, the 35-year old Miocic will set the record for most consecutive title defenses. But, of course, that’s easier said than done.

A Fellow Knockout Artist

Like Miocic, fellow knockout artist Francis Ngannou has been on a tear. Since joining the UFC two years ago, the Cameroonian born striker has built a record of 6-0 with five victories coming by knockout and one by submission.

Of his five KO wins, four have come in the very first round. In his most recent Octagon appearance, Ngannou literally put Alistair Overeem to sleep at UFC 218 last December 2nd by knocking out the former Strikeforce and K-1 champion in just 1:47.

With that scintillating performance against Reem, the UFC’s backing (Dana White said he’s going to be champion someday) and otherworldly punching power, Ngannou has opened as a rather surprising favorite over the champion at -150. The reigning champion came back at +120 in what is going to go down as one of the most exciting heavyweight title bout in years.

Who Lands Big First

Ngannou appears to be the more powerful puncher but let’s not forget that Miocic may be the best technical striker in the UFC’s heavyweight division. The champion is excellent in controlling the distance of the fight, enabling him to dictate the pace and the terms of engagement.

Miocic is also a former D-1 wrestler so you’ve got to think that he’s got the edge in grappling over his challenger. But when you got two very powerful punchers squaring off against each other, that or any other technical aspect of the game will hardly matter. It’s going to go down to who lands his big bomb first.

UFC 219: Cris Cyborg vs. Holly Holm Odds and Prediction

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Cris Cyborg will defend the UFC women’s featherweight belt against Holly Holm at UFC 219 on December 30th, 2017 in Las Vegas, Nevada, USA.

The bout has been declared as the main event for UFC 219, ending speculation that Irish superstar Conor McGregor is going to make an appearance at the UFC’s final event of the year.

Odds Favor Cyborg

Cyborg won the featherweight belt after easily outclassing Tonya Evinger at UFC 214. The two fought for the vacant title after Germaine De Randamie forfeited the crown after beating Holly Holm at UFC 208. Holm, meanwhile, rebounded from the loss and defeated Bethe Correia in her next fight.

Cyborg is the favorite here at -334 while Holm is the underdog at +250. The line may look surprising to some especially those who say that Holm is moving up in weight to face a bigger Cyborg. But then Holm has fought before at higher weights. She fought as junior welterweight and welterweight as a boxer and kickboxer.

Two Elite Strikers

In MMA, Holly Holm fought as a bantamweight but she moved up to featherweight to face Germaine De Randamie at UFC 208 for the inaugural UFC women’s featherweight title. Holm lost that bout but controversially so, because she was on the receiving end of punches after the bell at the end of rounds two and three.

Cyborg vs. Holm is a battle between two elite strikers and when you have two powerful ladies like these squaring off against each other, all it takes is one strike to win the fight. Holm is the more disciplined fighter between the two and is slightly longer in reach. She has never been knocked out in her MMA career, but she also has never faced a monster like Cris Cyborg before.

On Another Level

Cyborg puts on a relentless pace and won’t stop until she sees her opponent down and out.

We saw some of her striking weaknesses when she sparred Olympic champion Claressa Shields and knowing that Holm is a world champion boxer you think she’d have Cyborg’s number in the stand up. Not only does Cyborg have to watch out for Holm’s punches, but she also has to be wary of Holly’s kicks. Holm uses leg kicks better than any fighter in the sport.

But Cyborg is on another level in terms of power and aggression. It’s these that’s going to make the difference here. Both fighters are going to land their shots in this fight. Each will have her moments and despite the power between these two, it’s hard to see a quick ending.

Both are durable and have good defense so this fight is likely going to go past round three. After the midway point though, Cyborg’s power and pressure should wear down Holm. If she doesn’t get a late stoppage, Cris Cyborg is going to win this by unanimous decision.

UFC Fight Night Night: Robbie Lawler vs. Rafael Dos Anjos Odds and Prediction

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Robbie Lawler and Rafael Dos Anjos collide at the main event of UFC on Fox 26 on December 16th, 2017 at the Bell MTS Place in Winnipeg, Manitoba.

Lawler is coming off a victory over Donald ‘Cowboy’ Cerrone at UFC 214, while Dos Anjos is has won two fights in a row since moving up to welterweight. The former UFC lightweight king defeated Tarec Saffiedine by unanimous decision in his welterweight debut and then submitted Neil Magny at UFC 215 in his most recent bout.

To sweeten the pot, UFC President Dana White has announced that the winner of this contest will get the next title shot against Tyron Woodley.

Tough Call

Lawler opened as the -160 favorite while Dos Anjos was the underdog at +120 when the lines opened. Since then, the line has gotten closer at -120 for Lawler and even money +100 for Dos Anjos.

This is a tough call really and should be a pick ‘em fight. Lawler has the sure advantage in size and punching power but to his credit, Dos Anjos has managed to keep up with the big boys at 170. RDA was able to hang with Saffiedine for three rounds and he showed that he can use his submission skills against bigger foes like Magny.

Statistically, both are even in the striking department with Lawler averaging 3.57 significant strikes landed per minute and Dos Anjos at 3.37. In terms of accuracy, Lawler also has the slight edge at 45% against 42%. Defensively, RDA’s strike defense is a little better at 65% against Ruthless’ 61%.

Going To The Ground

On the ground, Dos Anjos has a huge edge in offense. He averages 2.23 takedowns per 15 minutes while Lawler only has a 0.78 takedowns per 15 minutes. Dos Anjos also averages 0.9 submissions per 15 minutes while Lawler’s submission game is almost non-existent.

With this advantage, it’s wise for Dos Anjos to take his chances against Lawler on the mat rather than on his feet. Sure, RDA is no slouch as a striker but Lawler has otherworldly punching power and durability. He’s faced much bigger men and withstood their punches, while at the same time dishing out his own punishment.

One thing going for Dos Anjos, though, is that Lawler’s last defeat was a first round KO against Tyron Woodley. So, perhaps because Ruthless has aged, his armor may not be what it once was. However, it’s still risky to try if that is indeed the case. You know that if Lawler connects with his punches, it’s going to be a quick night for Dos Anjos.

Power and Durability

Having said those, it’s Robbie Lawler’s punching power and durability that should stand out here. Dos Anjos has fought only twice as a welterweight and he’s never seen a big power hitter like Robbie Lawler.

Lawler’s takedown defense isn’t really elite at 69% but against a smaller guy (Lawler is three inches taller and four inches longer), he should stuff RDA’s takedown attempts. Dos Anjos does have excellent striking and can match Lawler’s firepower. But it remains to be seen how he will be once Lawler connects one clean punch.

It’s going to be a chess match early with Dos Anjos using his smarts to avoid Lawler’s bombs. But eventually, Lawler is going to catch up with Dos Anjos. He’s going to swarm RDA and make him back pedal. In the championship rounds, Lawler is going to connect that one big punch that will decide the outcome of this contest. We’re picking Robbie Lawler to win by knockout after three rounds.

UFC Fight Night 120: Anthony Pettis vs. Dustin Poirier Odds and Prediction

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Former UFC Lightweight Anthony Pettis returns to the octagon at the main event of UFC Fight Night 120 at the Ted Constant Convocation Center at Norfolk, Virginia on November 11th, 2017.  The 13th ranked Pettis will face 8th ranked lightweight Dustin Poirier in an attempt to climb back to the top of the 155-pound weight class he used to rule.

Fall From The Top

Pettis’ fall from the top  is well documented. After yielding the UFC lightweight title to Rafael Dos Anjos at UFC 185, Pettis lost back to back bouts to Edson Barboza and Eddie Alvarez, forcing him to make a surprise move down to the featherweight division. But after missing weight during an interim featherweight title bout (which he lost badly) against Max Holloway at UFC 206, Pettis decided to return to his natural weight class.

Showtime’s 155-pound return against Jim Miller at UFC 216 last July was successful. Not only did he break out of his slump, he looked like the Anthony Pettis of old in that fight. But Pettis’ recent struggles have pulled him down outside the Top 10 in the rankings. He asked for Poirier in August and with the “Diamond” obliging, the UFC booked the fight right away.

Controversial Fight

Dustin Poirier is coming off a controversial fight at UFC 211 against another former lightweight champion in Eddie Alvarez. That bout ended in a no-contest after Alvarez landed several illegal knees on Poirier. Prior to that fight, Poirier won five of six fights, losing only to Michael Johnson during that stretch.

Poirier has always been one of the gatekeepers of the division. If he can pick up a win though against a former champion like Pettis, his stock will surely soar. Diamond has been fighting in the UFC since 2011 but has never fought for the title. A win over Pettis should put him in striking distance of that long awaited title shot.

Odds and Prediction

Showtime Pettis is the favorite in this bout at -125 while Poirier is the underdog at +105. This is going to be a fun fight between two fighters who can finish the fight on the feet as well as on the ground. Both are excellent strikers who can produce knockouts in the stand up game and come up with creative submission moves on the canvass. Having said that, this fight is likely not going to the scorecards.

Both fighters are evenly matched up but Pettis is more athletic and may have the advantage here because of his creativity. Showtime looked great in his last fight and he seems to have broken out of his slump. Poirier is no easy picking but Pettis should win this fight with his speed and unpredictability.

We’re picking Anthony Pettis to win this fight by stoppage due to strikes.  

UFC 217: Joanna Jedrzejczyk vs. Rose Namajunas Odds and Prediction

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Joanna Jedrzejczyk will defend the UFC women’s strawweight title against Rose Namajunas in one of the three massive title fights slated for UFC 217 at the Madison Square Garden in New York on November 4th, 2017.

Jedrzejczyk has been on a dominating reign as UFC women’s strawweight champion. She is unbeaten in 14 total MMA fights and has successfully defended her belt five times since defeating UFC  women’s strawweight inaugural champion, Carla Esparza. That’s an impressive feat by itself, but Joanna has no plans in slowing down.

Solid Favorite

Namajunas has won four of her last five bouts and is coming off a 2nd round submission win over Michelle Waterson last April. The UFC’s 4th ranked female strawweight fought for the inaugural title in 2014 but lost to Carla Esparza. She hopes to win the belt in her second attempt but will be hard-pressed to do so against one of the top fighters in the UFC.

Jedrzejczyk is a staggering -600 favorite at Bovada and other UFC betting sites, while her challenger who is currently at +400. Jedrzejczyk needs no introduction. She is the best pound for pound female fighter in the UFC today. A former Muay Thai and Kickboxing world champion, Jedrzejczyk uses her legs and knees better than most fighters on the circuit.

Deadly Ground Game

Joanna is a highly efficient striker with great accuracy and a good boxing background. Although most of her fights have ended in a decision, she definitely can finish off her opponent. If this fight stays on the feet, Jedrzejczyk will be unbeatable.

Despite the fact that she doesn’t have a knockout under her belt, Namajunas can hold her own in striking. She is a pressure fighter who likes to mix her jabs with kicks. But what makes Namajunas deadly is her ground game. Five of her seven wins have come via submission. With her upper body strength and long legs, she is dangerous when she gets position on the canvass. One thing you’ve got to watch out for is her going for that rear naked choke.

Has Passed The Test

With her skill-set, Namajunas could be the kryptonite for Jedrzejczyk. If she takes the champion down, she won’t just take her off her biggest strength which is striking, but Rose will have the opportunity to win because she is an excellent submission artist.

But it’s hard to go against someone who is perhaps the best female fighter out there today. Jedrzejczyk has beaten every challenger that has been thrown at her and has passed the test against excellent submission artists like Claudia Gadelha and Jessica Penne. She’s going to keep this fight on the feet and outstrike Namajunas all night long.

We’re picking Joanna Jedrzejczyk to win this one by unanimous decision.

Cody Garbrandt vs. T.J. Dillashaw Odds and Prediction

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Cody Garbrandt defends his UFC bantamweight title for the first time against former champion and ex-teammate T.J. Dillashaw at UFC 217 on November 4th, 2017 at the Madison Square Garden in New York.

No Love Lost

Garbrandt’s nickname is ‘No Love’ and there is absolutely no love lost between these two former Team Alpha Male teammates. It can be recalled that Dillashaw left Team Alpha Male during his peak and title reign while Garbrandt won the belt from Dominick Cruz, the man who narrowly defeated Dillashaw in 2016.

These two former friends and now bitter rivals were originally slated to fight at UFC 213, but after Garbrandt suffered a back injury in May, it was rebooked for the MSG event on November 4th, 2017. It may no longer be the main event of its new schedule but it’s a fight that could steal the thunder from the entire event.

Both fighters have expressed their intention to book a superfight with UFC flyweight king Demetrious ‘Mighty Mouse’ Johnson so that should be an added motivation to win this fight. More than that, though, it’s pride and hate that drives these two elite bantamweights against each other.

Recipe For A Classic

The champion Garbrandt is the obvious favorite (-185 at Bovada) against the ex-champion Dillashaw, who is currently at +150. It doesn’t get any better than this. These are two of the best fighters in the bantamweight division and they absolutely hate each other.  You can’t really find a better recipe for a UFC classic.

Dillashaw has the longer reach and the versatility as a fighter but Cody Garbrandt has the edge in power and athleticism. Both fighters can push the pace for five rounds – no doubt about that – so this could very well go the distance.

In terms of numbers, Dillashaw has the edge, as he lands 5.38 significant strikes per minute, compared to Garbrandt’s 3.58. He also has the slight edge in accuracy at 41% vs 37%.

T.J. also has the better grappling stats with an average of 1.8 takedowns per 15 minutes as compared to Garbrandt’s 1.19. But the most important stat in this match should be Garbrandt’s 82% knockout ratio.

Power is Difference Maker

The champion has stopped 9 of 11 opponents with three of his last four victories coming by way of first round knockout. No doubt Dillashaw is an elusive target who is hard to hit much more knock out, but the same was said of Dominick Cruz before Cody Garbrandt pick Cruz apart at UFC 207.

Garbrandt has shown few weaknesses so far but Dillashaw being a former teammate may know some things that we don’t which he can exploit. Otherwise, it’s hard not to pick Cody Garbrandt in this match-up.  Dillashaw might want to take this fight to the ground to negate Cody’s power punches but Garbrandt has superb takedown defense.

On the feet, this should be an equal battle but Garbrandt’s power should be the difference maker here. We’re going with the champion Cody Garbrandt to win by a close unanimous decision.

UFC 217: Stephen Thompson vs. Jorge Masvidal Odds and Prediction

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Stephen Thompson faces Jorge Masvidal at UFC 217 at the Madison Square Garden in New York on November 4th, 2017. The event will be headlined by the middleweight title bout between champion Michael Bisping and former UFC welterweight king Georges St. Pierre, but this welterweight showdown could steal the thunder.

Coming off Losses

Thompson will be fighting for the first time since back to back title fights against UFC welterweight champ, Tyron Woodley. Wonderboy came within a whisker of winning the belt twice, earning a majority draw at UFC 205 and then dropping a 48-47, 48-47 and 47-47 majority decision loss to Woodley during their rematch at UFC 209. Prior to those two bouts, the South Carolina native won an impressive nine consecutive bouts.

Masvidal is also coming off a loss, having been beaten by Demian Maia at UFC 211. Prior to that defeat, Masvidal went on a three fight winning streak, beating Ross Pearson, Jake Ellenberger and Donald Cerrone in succession. Gamebred’s last 8 fights record of 4-4 is very deceptive. He has been silently climbing the ranks and improving his game. Masvidal has been waiting for a big opportunity like this and you bet he’s going all out.

Odds and Prediction

Wonderboy Thompson is currently the favorite at -155 ,while Jorge Masvidal is the underdog at +135.

This pick’em fight should be a good one and has the potential to be the fight of the night. Wonderboy is a decorated kickboxer who also has good power in his punches. Thompson’s legs are long while his kicks and punches are strong, making him a dangerous opponent in standup striking.  When he gets taken down, though, he isn’t as good on his back.

Masvidal is a brawler who lands powerful punches in the stand up. He’s one of the tougher fighters in the division owing to his Miami street fighting background. Gamebred is also quick and athletic enough to land takedowns plus he has good grappling skills. Thompson should have a handful against Masvidal standing up but when the fight goes to the ground, it’s got to be Masvidal’s fight to win.

Thompson will look for the quick win here but given that Masvidal has been knocked out only once in his 12 losses, it’s going to be frustrating. Masvidal, meanwhile, will try to make this ugly, whether on the feet or on the ground. He’s gonna try and make Thompson do other things aside from striking. This fight should go the distance with Masvidal winning by a narrow decision. We’re going with the upset here and picking Masvidal to win on points.

UFC Fight Night 118: Will Cowboy End His Losing Streak?

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Donald Cerrone looks to snap out of the first losing streak of his MMA career when he faces Darren Till in the main event of UFC Fight Night 188 in Gdansk, Poland on October 21st, 2017.

Back To Back Losses

Cerrone is known as one of the UFC’s busiest fighters with at least four fights per year since 2013. But this year, he’s fought just twice and surprisingly has lost both. Cowboy was knocked out by Jorge Masvidal last January and then suffered a unanimous decision loss to Robbie Lawler in a high profile fight at UFC 214 last July. Cerrone hopes to get back on the winning side against a relative newcomer he said he never heard of before.

Darren Till has been in the UFC since 2015 but not many people know him. That’s because three of his four UFC bouts have been in the prelims of non-PPV events. But he’s unbeaten at 15-0-1 including a UFC record of 3-0-1. Till is coming off a September 2nd victory against Bojan Velickovic and will be making a quick turnaround for this one.

Pretty Close

Surprisingly, the odds for this one are pretty close. Cerrone is the slight favorite at -155 while Till the underdog at +125 at Bovada. If you take a look at his fight resume, chances are you won’t recognize any names there. But just because Till hasn’t fought quality opposition in the UFC doesn’t mean he is easy picking for Cowboy.

Till has has one-punch knockout power and that’s what makes him very dangerous. His athleticism and awkward style could turn out to be a nightmare for Cerrone, who is getting up there in the age department. Remember that Cowboy is coming off the first back to back losses of his MMA career so he may be one the way down. But then again, maybe not.

Explosiveness vs. Experience

Although he clearly lost to Masvidal, Cerrone fought Lawler tooth and nail. It was a back and forth fight and unfortunately it was just a three rounder. Lawler won that fight by a hairline and had it gone longer, who knows if Cerrone would’ve picked up the victory. Cowboy’s Muay Thai background makes this an exciting striking affair.

Cerrone has the advantage if this fight goes to the ground because he has more fight experience. But given Till’s explosiveness, he can end this fight at any moment. That’s what makes him dangerous, especially since three of Cowboy’s last five losses have been by knockout to excellent strikers in Anthony Pettis, Rafael Dos Anjos and Masvidal.

This one’s a pick ‘em fight but you’ve got to go with the veteran here. He’s been here and done that. Till has a great career ahead of him but Cerrone is a big step up in opposition for him. We’re picking Donald Cerrone to win this one by submission or decision.

UFC 216 Odds and Prediction: Can Ray Borg Upset Demetrious Johnson?

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Demetrious ‘Mighty Mouse” Johnson will be aiming for an 11th straight title defense as he faces Ray Borg at UFC 216. The massive event will be held at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada on October 7th, 2017.

Rebooked Fight

The fight was originally scheduled for UFC 215 but was cancelled after Borg pulled out from the fight because of sickness. Borg’s withdrawal drew plenty of criticism, but he’s now okay and hopes to achieve one of the biggest upsets ever in the UFC.

Mighty Mouse is considered to be the best pound for pound fighter on the planet. He hasn’t lost a fight since 2011, when he was defeated by Dominick Cruz.  Meanwhile, Ray Borg has won five of his last six bouts and is coming off a win over Jussier Formiga in March.

Not As Good On His Feet

Johnson is the huge favorite here with -1200 odds at Bovada, while Borg is the underdog at +700. Borg is a great fighter, no question about that. But he is not as effective if he is forced to fight in a stand up battle. Johnson, meanwhile, is a complete fighter. He has all the tools in the box and can fight any style he wants.

Borg is an active fighter who likes to scramble and grapple. He loves to go for takedowns. In fact, he’s scored five takedowns in his last five bouts. But he doesn’t have striking power nor is he as good on his feet as he is on the ground.

That’s going to be a huge problem against Mighty Mouse, especially if you ask Borg:

No Signs of Slowing Down

Demetrious Johnson had some problems against Tim Elliott, who is a good wrestler. But despite that, Mighty Mouse still managed to win convincingly and rather easily via scores of 49-46, 49-46 and 49-45. Still, Borg will look at that tape and try to do better.

It’s hard to pick against Demetrious Johnson, though. The man has proven himself time and again. Mighty Mouse is the UFC’s first and only flyweight champion. He’s defended the belt an incredible 10 times and he’s showing no signs of slowing down.

Borg’s work is cut out for him. Mighty Mouse is going to take him to school. Borg won’t be able to drag this fight to the ground. D.J. is going to keep this fight standing up. He’ll walk away with another easy unanimous decision win here.