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Tony Ferguson vs. Kevin Lee Odds and Prediction

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Tony Ferguson and Kevin Lee fight for the interim UFC lightweight title at the main event of UFC 216 at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada on October 7th, 2017.

Ferguson vs. Lee remained the headliner despite the UFC adding of the flyweight title bout between champion Demetrious ‘Mighty Mouse’ Johnson and Ray Borg to the card. That bout was supposed to headline UFC 215 but Borg pulled out of the fight due to injury. As it stands, the interim 155-pound title bout between El Cucuy and the Motown Phenom remains as the main event.

Interim Title Bout

With Conor McGregor taking the rest of the year off, top ranked lightweight Khabib Nurmagomedov has laid low since pulling out of his UFC 209 showdown with Ferguson due to a botched weight cut. Because of those developments, the UFC decided to keep the lightweight division active by ordering the 2nd ranked Ferguson and the #7 guy Lee to fight for the interim belt.

Ferguson has won an incredible 9 fights in a row and is coming off a decision win over former champion Rafael Dos Anjos last November. Lee, meanwhile, has won five consecutive fights, with four coming by stoppage. In his most recent bout, his first headliner, the 24-year old Lee submitted veteran Michael Chisea.

Equally Matched

Ferguson is favored over Lee at -225 against +175 odds at Bovada and most other UFC betting sites. It doesn’t get any better than this for the UFC. These are two equally matched fighters who can hold their own on the feet, in the clinch or on the canvass. It’s hard to pick a winner here because you can make a claim for either side.

Ferguson is a volume striker who has knockout power and who can submit his opponents on the ground. He’s one of the more conditioned fighters in the game and can win anywhere. Six of his last nine wins have come via stoppage.

Takedowns Are Key

Kevin Lee hasn’t lost since his 2015 defeat to Leonardo Santos. Lee is a strong athlete who takes the fight wherever he wants to and win there. He is an underrated striker but his bread and butter are his takedowns and submissions. He has nine takedowns in his last three fights with each of those bouts ending via stoppage.

Ferguson has been in superb form lately but Kevin Lee’s takedowns and superior strength should be the key here. Look for Lee to drag El Cucuy down and derail him from his game plan. Ferguson is excellent on the ground but Lee may be too strong for him on the canvass. It will be hard to stop Tony Ferguson but Kevin Lee will settle for scoring big takedowns. We’re picking Kevin Lee to win by decision or late submission.

UFC Fight Night 117: Ovince Saint Preux vs. Mauricio Rua Odds and Pick

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Mauricio ‘Shogun’ Rua faces Ovince Saint Preux at the main event of UFC Fight Night 117 in Japan on September 22nd, 2017.

Rua, the former UFC light heavyweight champion, hopes to get back at Saint Preux who knocked him out in just 34 seconds at UFC Fight Night 56 in 2014. What made that loss more sorry was that it was held in Brazil, where Shogun hails from.

Looking for Revenge

Since that loss, though, Rua has been on a renaissance trail, winning three fights in a row. Shogun has fought once per year since 2015 but will be making his second fight of 2017. At age 35, he is no longer in his prime and is no longer the feared fighter he once was. More than looking long-term at the title, Rua is aching for revenge.

Ovince Saint Preux has seen his career slide lately. After fighting Jon Jones for the interim UFC light heavyweight title at UFC 197, he’s suffered back to back losses to Jimi Manuwa and Volkan Oezdemir. With just four wins in his last nine, he needs to get back on track. A win over Shogun puts him back in the mix.

More Respect

Saint Preux is the slight favorite at -170, while Shogun is close by at +150. OSP has a two inch height and four inch reach advantage over Rua and that could play a factor in this fight. Saint Preux is mostly a stand up striker who has power to end the fight with one punch. That’s what happened in their first bout when Shogun tried to rush in and got caught.  But you’ve got to believe that this time around, Rua will have more respect for OSP’s power. If he does so, he will be okay here.

Although he is the smaller man, Rua is the more balanced fighter between the two and he can win in a variety of ways. He should pick apart OSP and slow him down using leg kicks we know that Saint Preux’s endurance has always been his waterloo and if Rua can be patient and just slowly chop down the tree, he should be victorious here.

Shogun’s Advantage

We know Shogun is a legend is Japan during his days fighting for the PRIDE promotion where he was the 2005 Grand Prix champion. With this fight being held at the Super Saitama Arena in Japan, this should be a homecoming of sorts for Shogun. Having mentioned that, it’s interesting to note that Shogun has a record of 10-1 in Japan. With history and the crowd behind him, Shogun should have the advantage.

Saint Preux is in a funk right now. He’s lost four of his last six bouts although he is coming off a win over Marcos Rogerio De Lima in April. Like in their first fight, his best chance of winning this rematch is to go off early and stun Rua. That’s because the longer this goes, it will be to Shogun’s advantage. Shogun is smart and surely he’s learned his lesson. He’s going to take it easy this time around and stop Saint Preux late. We’re picking Mauricio Rua to win by stoppage in the championship rounds.

Luke Rockhold vs. David Branch: Will Rockhold Return in Style?

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Former UFC middleweight champion Luke Rockhold returns to the Octagon after a fifteen month absence as he takes on former WSOF middleweight titleholder David Branch in the main event of UFC Fight Night 116 at the PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburg, Pennsylvania.

Long Layoff

Luke Rockhold has not fought since losing the middleweight title to the brash Briton Michael Bisping at UFC 199. Bisping upset Rockhold via first round knockout to win the world title for the first time in his career. Rockhold was set to return last November to face Ronaldo ‘Jacare’ Souza at UFC Fight Night 101 but pulled out from the bout with an injury.

Rockhold’s opponent is the former WSOF’s inaugural middleweight and light heavyweight champion David Branch. Branch defended the middleweight title thrice and the light heavyweight crown once. He is on his second tour of duty with the UFC and is coming off a win over Krzysztopf Jotko. Branch had a mediocre 2-2 record during his first stint with the  UFC.

Odds and Prediction

Rockhold is a big -450 favorite against Branch who is currently a huge underdog at +350 and there’s no surprise to that. Luke Rockhold is one of the best all-around fighters in the sport. He is dangerous with his leg kicks and strikes but is equally deadly with his wrestling and submission game. Rockhold’s last five wins have ended in a knockout.

On the other hand, David Branch is a smart fighter who who has solid defense. He is a proven takedown artist with an average of 2.33 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. Rockhold only averages 0.56 takedowns per 15 minutes but is by far the more productive striker between the two with an average of 4.17 significant strikes landed per 15 minutes. David Branch only averages 1.49 significant strikes landed per 15 minutes.

Will Layoff be A Factor

It will be interesting to see how Rockhold performs after a fifteen month layoff. He’s never lost back to back fights in his career and he’s hoping to avoid that.

Branch meanwhile has won 11 consecutive bouts and hasn’t lost since he was beaten by Rumble Johnson in 2012. Branch has a slight advantage in reach and is the naturally bigger man here. This is a dangerous fight for Luke Rockhold. But Rockhold’s got the experience and the better wrestling game here.

We’re picking Luke Rockhold to win. He’s going to end this fight early and win in style.

UFC 215: Neil Magny vs. Rafael Dos Anjos Odds and Prediction

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Rafael Dos Anjos is looking to win his second consecutive fight in his new weight class. The former UFC lightweight king will face veteran welterweight Neil Magny in the main card of UFC 215 on September 9th, 2017 at Rogers Place in Edmonton, Alberta.

New Weight Class

After winning his welterweight debut, Rafael Dos Anjos looks to move up the 170-pound ladder by challenging the promotion’s 6th ranked welterweight in Neil Magny. Dos Anjos moved up in weight after back to back losses to Eddie Alvarez and Tony Ferguson. Alvarez made a successful 170-pound debut when he defeated Tarec Saffiedine last June.

Neil Magny saw his three fight winning streak end with a knockout loss to Lorenz Larkin at UFC 202. He rebounded with a solid unanimous decision win over an overweight former champion in Johny Hendricks at UFC 207. With a title shot in his sights, Magny looks to beat another former UFC champion in his second consecutive bout as he faces Dos Anjos in Canada.

The Odds

The former lightweight champ Dos Anjos is the favorite here at -200 at Bovada, while the American Magny is the underdog at +160. This is a very interesting fight to call, really. Dos Anjos will only be fighting for the second time as a welterweight. And coming from lightweight, Dos Anjos really looks physically handicapped in this matchup.

Not only does Magny have a massive seven inch advantage in height, he also has a huge ten inch reach advantage over Rafael Dos Anjos. Magny has used his length to average 4.04 significant strikes landed per minute at an impressive 50% accuracy. That’s going to be a problem for a pressure fighter like Dos Anjos who likes to push the pace against his opponents.

Bigger Man Wins

We’ve seen Neil Magny struggle against pressure fighters before and such was the case in his most recent loss to Lorenz Larkin. But Magny has been a welterweight ever since and he’s used to facing bigger men with bigger punches. He’s beaten heavy hitters like Johny Hendricks, Kelvin Gastelum and Hector Lombard in the past two years so you know he’s no fluke. Dos Anjos lands plenty of strikes but he isn’t a knockout artist, not even at lightweight.

Dos Anjos is good, but he’s giving up too much in size here. Magny is going to have his hands full defending RDA’s strikes but the bigger man will prevail. We’re picking Neil Magny to pick up another decision win. If he gets on top of Dos Anjos more than once in this fight, he could win by ground and pound stoppage too.

MMA Predictions: Amanda Nunes vs. Valentina Shevchenko Odds and Preview

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Amanda ‘The Lioness’ Nunes defends the UFC women’s bantamweight title against Valentina ‘The Bullet’ Shevchenko at UFC 215 at Rogers Place in Edmonton, Canada on September 9th, 2017.

Keep our Fingers Crossed

The rematch between these two bantamweights is finally happening. But still, let’s keep our fingers crossed.

These two were supposed to headline UFC 213 last month but after making weight, Amanda Nunes inexplicably pulled out of the fight after she ‘fell ill’ and despite being cleared by UFC doctors to fight. And despite criticisms, she wasn’t stripped of her belt and the fight was rebooked to UFC 215.

Nunes beat Shevchenko by unanimous decision during their first meeting at UFC 196. But during that fight, Shevchenko finished strong and exposed a lot of holes in Nunes’ game. Nunes went on to become world champion and Shevchenko rose from the ranks by beating the likes of Holly Holm and Julianna Pena.

Lines Have Changed

Nunes opened as a -125 favorite against Shevchenko’s +105 when this rematch was first scheduled for UFC 213. This time around, the lines have changed and it’s Valentina Shevchenko at -125 and Amanda Nunes at +105.

No doubt this is going to be another dogfight between these two strikers. Amanda Nunes is a fantastic finisher with her fists, having stopped 13 of 14 opponents. But the one opponent she couldn’t finish was, well, Valentina Shevchenko.  During their first fight, Nunes started out fast but lost steam in the end. She walked away with the victory but not after getting pummeled by the Bullet.

Mental Edge

Shevchenko may not have Nunes’ power but she has the more diversified attack, thanks to her Muay Thai background. Shevchenko is patient and calculated and she has the counter striking skills to frustrate Nunes. Nunes has the edge in power and athleticism here. But when it comes to skill, technique and more importantly cardio, it’s Shevchenko.

You got to wonder why Nunes pulled from UFC 213 when she was cleared by the doctors. Well, she said she felt ill. But if she was, then why was she cleared to fight? Something tells me Nunes is sick with Valentina-itis. The Bullet is inside her mind. That mental edge could be a big factor in this fight. So will be Valentina’s cardio, skill level and counter striking. We’re picking Shevchenko to become the new UFC women’s bantamweight champion.

Brandon Moreno vs Sergio Pettis: Which Flyweight Will Continue To Surge?

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Two surging flyweights will headline the UFC’s return to Mexico City on August 5th, 2017 as Sergio Pettis takes on Brandon Moreno in the main event of UFC Fight Night 114 at the Mexico City Arena in Mexico City, Mexico.

Showtime’s Brother

Sergio Pettis is the younger brother of former UFC Lightweight titleholder Anthony Pettis. The 8th ranked Pettis will put his three-fight winning streak on the line against a fighter ranked just one spot below him. Since his upset loss to Ryan Benoit during his flyweight debut at UFC 185, Pettis has recorded wins over Chris Cariaso, Chris Kelades and John Moraga.

Pettis started his UFC career at bantamweight and after going 3-1 with a pair of Fight of the Night bonuses. Prior to the UFC he competed in the Resurrection Fighting Alliance promotion and the North American Fighting Championships. He was the first RFA Flyweight champion and a former NAFC Bantamweight champion.

First Headliner

Ninth ranked Brandon Moreno has racked up 11 consecutive wins, including 8 stoppages, after starting his MMA career with a 3-3 record. Moreno is 3-0 in the UFC with two victories by submission and two post fight bonuses. In his UFC debut at UFC Fight Night 96 last October, Moreno submitted Luis Smolka. Two months later, he beat Ryan Benoit by split decision and then choked out Dustin Ortiz at UFC Fight Night 108 in Nashville.

Moreno has forced 7 of his last 9 opponents to tap out so you’ve got to look out for his submission skills here. This will be Moreno’s fourth fight in his birthplace of Mexico City and his first in Mexico under the UFC banner. This is also the first time in his career that he will be headlining a UFC event.

Odds

This one’s pretty much interesting with Moreno a slight -140 favorite against Pettis who is at +120. These are two young and hungry up and comers who would like to push their careers to the Top 5 and position themselves for a possible title shot.

Moreno averages 3.2 takedowns and 2.3 submissions per fifteen minutes and those show you how he wants to fight. He’s very good on the ground and he has excellent submission skills. In his most recent fight against Dustin Ortiz, Moreno was taken down four times, yet he still was able to submit Ortiz. Pettis can hold his own against Moreno on the ground but he’d rather have this fight on its feet where he averages 4.02 significant strikes per 15 minutes.

Prediction

Sergio Pettis’ ground game has shown some improvement lately but he might not want to test it against a very good submission artist like Brandon Moreno. Pettis will likely be content to strike against Moreno. He will utilize his leg kicks to mix with his punches. If he is going to win, it’s going to be via a decision. Pettis’ last six bouts have ended in a decision and he hasn’t stopped anyone since 2013.

For Moreno to win, he must take this fight to the canvas where he has the significant advantage. Moreno should look for takedowns more than usual and keep an aggressive pace. For Pettis to win, he must fight the perfect fight. A simple striking mistake could put him down on the mat against an excellent finisher and he doesn’t want that to happen. We’re picking Brandon Moreno to win his 12th straight fight by submission.

UFC 214: Will The Daniel Cormier vs Jon Jones Rivalry End Here?

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Daniel Cormier will finally have the opportunity to legitimize his UFC Light heavyweight title against the man who is universally recognized as the best light heavyweight of all-time.

The Rematch

Jon Jones never lost the lightweight title inside the octagon. He got stripped of the belt because of his run-ins with the law. They have fought before at UFC 182 and Jones beat Cormier decisively by unanimous decision. A rematch had been set at UFC 197 but Cormier got hurt and Jones won the interim title against Ovince St. Preux.

The UFC set up a unification bout at last year’s iconic UFC 200 but Jones was pulled from the event after failing a drug test. He was subsequently suspended for one year because of the doping violation. With Jones reinstated, he will have the opportunity to get back what is rightfully his. To do that, he must beat a familiar foe. And so the rematch is set as the main event of UFC 214 on July 29, 2017 at the Honda Center in Anaheim, California.

Jon Jones is the youngest champion in the history of the UFC. Jones holds many records at 205 pounds including most wins, most consecutive and successful title defenses, longest winning streak and most career wins by submission. For several years, Jones stood as MMA’s best pound for pound fighter. That was before his personal troubles began.

Brushes With Law

Not counting the DUIs, Jon Jones had two major brushes with the law that led to his removal from the top of the light heavyweight mountain. In April 2015, he was stripped of the title after a felony hit and run incident led to him being arrested. The following year, Jones was pulled from UFC 200 three days before the event after testing positive for a banned substance during a pre-fight drug test. With all these behind him now, Jones looks to win back the belt that he believes is his.

While Jones was battling his demons, Daniel Cormier slowly carved out a niche for himself and became the UFC light heavyweight champion in Bones’ absence. The former Strikeforce Heavyweight Grand Prix champion has won four consecutive  bouts since losing to Jon Jones at UFC 182, including two victories over Anthony ‘Rumble’ Johnson.

The Odds

Despite having the belt, Cormier’s title reign has has an asterisk. That’s because while he succeeded Jones as champion, he never beat the man in the first place. In fact, Cormier lost convincingly to Jones in their only meeting thus far. At UFC 214, Cormier has the opportunity to prove his doubters wrong and show the world that he truly is light heavyweight champ.

Jones is the favorite here at -250 and Cormier the betting underdog at +200. During their first bout at UFc 182, Bones was also favored by oddsmakers at -240 while Cormier was at +145. The reason we brought that up is because there isn’t really going to be too much difference between this fight and the previous one.

More Diverse Striker

Daniel Cormier is an excellent wrestler as he was an All-American and an Olympic alternate in college. His best weapons will always be his wrestling and grappling. He is most comfortable when the fight is on the ground. Three of his last five wins have been by rear naked choke so there is some development in his game. But as they say, you really can’t teach an old dog new tricks. DC will always be a wrestler and that will not work against Jones.

Jones is a superb striker and the much more diverse one compared to Cormier. Given his five inch advantage in height and one foot advantage in reach, it’s going to be a picnic out there if Cormier doesn’t take Jones down and if Jones starts to find his range. Cormier’s problems begin with Jones takedown defense though. The former champ has a 94% takedown defense which might be too good for DC’s surprisingly low 46% takedown accuracy.

The Prediction

Statistically, Jones even has the advantage in takedowns at 2.26 per fifteen minutes. On the other hand, the better wrestler Cormier is only at 1.92 over that period. With Cormier’s takedown defense only at 78%, there is a chance that Jones is even going to land some takedowns against the champ. Jones has the better submission average than DC at 0.6 to 0.4.

Jones can beat Cormier whichever way he wants to fight. That’s why it’s going to be tough to bet against Jon Jones. Sure, the long layoff tells you that he may be rusty but for an elite level athlete like him, there’s no such thing as ring rust. Jon Jones looks in fantastic shape at his training camp. That’s going to be the least of his worries. We’re picking Jones to win this by unanimous decision, just like the first bout. And with the victory should come the end of this rivalry. Jones is simply better than Cormier.

UFC 214: Robbie Lawler vs. Donald Cerrone Could Steal The Show

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The fight that MMA fans have been waiting for is finally happening.

Former UFC welterweight champion ‘Ruthless’ Robbie Lawler makes his long awaited octagon return against the fan-favorite Donald ‘Cowboy’ Cerrone on July 29th, 2017 at UFC 214 at the Honda Center in Anaheim, California.

Look, this fight isn’t the main event. It’s not even the co-main event. That’s because there are three title fights at UFC 214. This one’s not one of them. But it could steal the show, no doubt about it.

Ruthless Returns

The bout marks Lawler’s first fight since losing the UFC welterweight title to Tyron Woodley at UFC 201 last July 30th, 2016. Prior to the loss, Lawler won five fights in a row, including three title fights. During his ruthless reign, Lawler battled and battered some of the division’s best fighters on his way to becoming the UFC’s welterweight king.

Lawler is known as one of the toughest fighters on the planet. He loves to go to war and he doesn’t mind eating some to deliver his powerful blows. Lawler has excellent hand speed and one punch knockout power. Six of his last ten victories have been by knockout.

Cowboy Tries Again

Like Robbie Lawler, Donald Cerrone is coming off a loss. The former lightweight title contender suffered his first defeat as a welterweight this past January. Cerrone was already at #5 in the rankings when he lost to #12 Jorge Masvidal. It also pushes Cerrone’s title ambitions backwards. Cerrone has produced many exciting wins but has come up short in big fights. He’s looking to change that against Robbie Lawler.

Cowboy is an excellent striker because of his Muay Thai background. He also has excellent submission skills with half of his 32 wins by submission. In short, Cerrone is a very versatile offensive fighter whether be it on his feet or on the ground. He’s one hell of a fighter who simply loves to take challenging fights like this one.

The Odds

Lawler is the slight favorite here at -150 and Cerrone the underdog at +130. This is as close as it gets and this is why many fans are excited to see these two exciting fighters finally square off inside the UFC octagon.

At first look, you’d think that Lawler would be the much bigger man here as Cerrone originally fought at lightweight. But if you look at the tale of the tape, Ruthless only has a once inch reach advantage and Cowboy Cerrone is two inches taller. Physically, Lawler’s main edge over Cerrone is his punching power. And that may be all that matters here.

Difference in Punching Power

We’ve seen Cerrone rack up four straight KO wins at welterweight but we also saw how he was knocked out by a come-forward fighter in Jorge Masvidal. During that fight, Cerrone started out well but after Masvidal found a home for his jab, Gamebred started pushing Cerrone backwards. Uncomfortable backing up, Cerrone would get caught by a combination at the end of the round. He never recovered. If Cerrone had problems backing up against an good striker like Masvidal, then he could be in trouble against Robbie Lawler.

On the average, Cerrone lands more significant strikes per minute at 4.18 against Lawler’s 3.49. But most of Cerrone’s numbers were against lightweights while Lawler has been punching welterweights all his life. With his punching power, all Robbie Lawler needs is just one punch. Look make no mistake here. Lawler too was knocked out by Tyron Woodley in his last bout but Cowboy’s no Woodley and so is his punching power.

The Prediction

We’re thinking that Cerrone would prefer this fight to go on the ground, where he has the more definite advantage. Cowboy averages 1.6 submission attempts per 15 minutes while Ruthless’ submission game is almost non-existent. Problem here is Cerrone can put Lawler on the ground given Lawler’s 67% takedown defense.

Having said all those, i think the fight stays on the feet most of the time. Lawler has the advantage here with a little more reach and a lot more punching power. One fight could end it for Ruthless while Cerrone may need his ‘Super Saiyan combos’ to put Robbie down. Either way, it’s going to be an exciting fight. But we’re going to pick Robbie Lawler here because of better punching power. Robbie Lawler by stoppage!

Chris Weidman American Flag

UFC on Fox 25: Chris Weidman vs. Kelvin Gastelum Odds and Prediction

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Chris Weidman and Kelvin Gastelum meet at the main event of UFC on Fox 25 on July 22nd, 2017 at the Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum in Uniondale, New York.

Picking Up The Pieces

After beating Anderson Silva in back to back fights, Chris Weidman’s fortunes have turned upside down. The All-American lost his middleweight title to Luke Rockhold and then he suffered two more losses to Yoel Romero and Gegard Mousasi. What made it worse for Weidman was the fact that two of those three losses came in his home state of New York. With perhaps his last chance to prove he is still an elite fighter, Weidman returns to New York to hopefully end the jinx.

No Slouch

His opponent is no slouch. Kelvin Gastelum may be physically small for the middleweight division but he fights with the biggest of hearts. Gastelum is coming off a first round KO of Vitor Belfort but that win was overturned after he tested positive for a banned substance. Prior to that bout, Gastelum collected back to back wins over Tim Kennedy and Johny Hendricks. This is only his third fight since returning to middleweight and without a doubt his biggest test so far.

No Longer The Same Fighter

Chris Weidman opened as a -150 favorite against Kelvin Gastelum’s +120. Since then, the lines have moved and Gastelum is the current odds on favorite at -140 while Weidman is now the underdog at +125. This one could go either way, really.  Both men are hungry for a victory and need one to solidify their spot in a loaded middleweight division.

The concern here for Chris Weidman is that he’s lost his last three fights by knockout and his opponent is known as a heavy puncher and a knockout artist. However, Weidman’s seven inch reach advantage and the fact that he’s a much bigger guy than Gastelum makes him a tempting pick. But if you look at recent history, Weidman’s been on the losing end three fights in a row and has now been on the losing side in every bout since May of 2015. He’s no longer the fighter he once was and could be on his way out.

Younger and Hungrier

Gastelum meanwhile is a younger and hungrier lion who’s never been in a title fight. He moved up from welterweight after being plagued with weight problems. He seems undersized for the middleweight division but he makes up for it with his toughness, tenacity and punching power. Weidman doesn’t just have the size advantage, he will also have homecourt edge. Despite those, we’re picking Kelvin Gastelum to win this one. It could be a close five round decision or Gastelum wins it early by KO. Either way, we don’t think Weidman still has it in him.

Gunnar Nelson vs. Santiago Ponzinibbio: Will Nelson Shine in The Spotlight?

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Gunnar Nelson has long fought in the shadows of his famous teammate Conor McGregor. With the Notorious one fighting outside MMA next, Nelson gets his chance to shine in the spotlight when he headlines UFC Fight Night 113 against Santiago Ponzinibbio on July 16th, 2017 at the SSE Hydro in Glasgow, Scotland.

Not A High Profile Opponent

This wasn’t the high profile fight that Gunnar Nelson would’ve wanted but he’s headlining his second UFC event. Nelson is currently 8th in the welterweight rankings and he was hoping to fight someone above him to move him closer to a title shot. Instead he faces the dangerous Santiago Ponzinibbio who is ranked 6 spots lower than him at #14.

Nelson has a 7-2 UFC record and has lost just once since 2014. He has won two in a row since losing to Demian Maia in 2015. Nelson submitted Alan Jouban in his most recent bout last March. Ponzinibbio meanwhile has put together a string of four consecutive wins. His last defeat came against Lorenz Larkin in 2013 and has won six of his last seven bouts. The TUF Brazil alumnus is looking to barge into the Top 10 and a high profile win over Nelson will get him noticed.

Identical Size, Different Styles

Gunnar Nelson is the slight favorite in this contest at -227. His opponent Ponzinibbio is currently the underdog at +175. These are two welterweights who are almost identical in size but very different in styles. Ponzinibbio is a very aggressive volume striker who lands 4.03 significant strikes per minute. Nelson meanwhile, averages just 1.98 significant strikes per minute  but has the significant advantage in grappling. The SBG Ireland product averages 1.67 takedowns per fifteen minutes while Ponzinibbio almost has a non-existent takedown game at just 0.19 per fifteen minutes.

The Prediction

Everyone knows what they’re getting with Gunnar Nelson. He’s an excellent grappler who will grind you to the ground. Gunny has won his last five bouts by submission and has earned performance of the night honors in his last two victories. Gunnar Nelson has never been finished in his career.

Ponzinibbio has never lost by submission and has finished 11 of 14 opponents so it will be interesting to see which style gives here. Look for Ponzinibbio to keep the fight standing up, with him utilizing a lot of leg kicks to score points. Nelson meanwhile will try to make this a grappling contest and force Ponzinibbio to fight on the ground where he isn’t really comfortable at. Nelson will make Ponzinibbio fight out of the clinch to limit his striking and movement. We think it’s going to be a frustrating night for Ponzinibbio.

We’re picking Gunnar Nelson to win by submission or ground and pound stoppage.